Mike Rose AFL GOM
7* PHILADELPHIA -3½ -105 VS. SAN JOSE GOM
The ArenaBowl has finally arrived giving AFL bettors their last chance to pad their bankrolls for the upcoming 2008-09 NFL and NCAA football seasons. The 22nd installment of the AFL’s grand game pits the (11-5) Western Conference champion San Jose Sabercats against the (13-3) Eastern Division champion Philadelphia Soul. This will be just the fourth time these franchises have squared off against one another.
The defending ArenaBowl XXI Champion Sabercats are making their second consecutive ArenaBowl appearance, and fourth in seven seasons, after defeating the #6 Grand Rapids Rampage, 81-55, at the HP Pavilion in the American Conference Championship game two weeks ago. The 26-point victory saw the Sabercats easily cover the six-point spread, and the combined 136-points surpassed the 119-point closing ‘total’ with ease. San Jose covered each of its post-season games to get back to New Orleans making its AFL betting backers very happy, and they’ll look to become the first team since Tampa Bay back in 1996 to hoist the Jim Foster Trophy in back-to-back seasons. Overall, the American Conference champs went 13-5 SU and 8-8-2 ATS, but they enter the biggest game of the season on a 7-3-2 ATS run their L/12 overall games.
The Philadelphia Soul is making its first-ever ArenaBowl appearance after earning a league-best 13-3 record during the regular season and capturing its first Eastern Division title in the franchises five-year existence. The top-ranked Soul defeated the #4 Cleveland Gladiators, 70-35, in the National Conference Championship online betting game two weeks ago at the Wachovia Center. The 35-point victory saw the Soul easily cover the 6.5-point spread, and the combined 105-points stayed under the 118-point closing ‘total’. With many around the league questioning Philly’s placement in the National Conference Finals after a questionable call enabled them to get past the New York Dragons, the Soul let it be known they’re the best the conference had to offer after humiliating the Cleveland Gladiators. Overall, the National Conference champs stand 15-3 SU and 9-8-1 ATS coming into this game, but they’re a poor 2-6 ATS their L/8 when installed the favorite. That said; Head Coach Brett Munsey’s club has stepped up to the plate against winning competition going 6-2-1 ATS the L/9 times.
These clubs locked horns with one another way back in Week 7 when the Soul fought back from a 26-point deficit to defeat the Sabercats, 58-57, on a five-yard touchdown run by QB Matt D’Orazio with 10 seconds remaining in the game. The win kept Philadelphia’s perfect mark intact (7-0), while San Jose dropped to 3-4 after the crippling home defeat. The victory was the Soul’s first ever defeat of the Sabercats who won and covered against them back in 2004 and 2005.
It’s been more than a month since the Sabercats have left the comfy confines of their own arena where they only managed 5-3 SU and 2-5-1 ATS marks as a visitor. Philadelphia won pretty much everywhere they played this season, and managed to go 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS on the road in some very hostile environments. The Soul played a much tougher schedule than that of their opponents, and I expect that to play a major role in determining the victor of this game. I pegged Philly to hoist the trophy midway through the regular season, and I’m sticking to my guns. Lay the points with Bon Jovi and Jaworski’s bunch as they proved to be the best the AFL had to offer all season long!!!
Rocco Vincintore Guaranteed Selections
5000* ARENA FOOTBALL GAME OF THE YEAR
Philadelphia -3½
James Patrick
Marlins vs. Cubs
Florida has been a run producing machine with Over the Total winners in 35 of 52 games. Their meetings with these Cubs have gone Over the Total in 16 of 23 meetings and the Chicago starter Marquis has been lit up for big numbers in 7 of 10 home starts. Our Sunday selection in National League action is Marlins – Cubs Over the Total.
Rocketman Sports
#18 Kyle Busch vs #11 Denny Hamlin
Play On: 3* #18 Kyle Busch -135
Looking at my pick for the 4th spot we turn to Kyle Busch. Busch has no wins, 1 Top 5 finishes and 3 Top 10 finishes in his 3 starts in Indianapolis. Busch has an average finish of 7.0 in Indianapolis. Kyle Busch's average finish over the past 3 races is 9.0. In 3 races, he has 2 wins and 2 top 10 finishes, which is the hottest. Kyle Busch's average finish over the past 10 races is 9.1. In 10 races, he has 5 wins and 7 top 10 finishes which is best overall! Hamlin has an average finish of 16.0 here. We'll play Kyle Busch to finish ahead of Denny Hamlin for 3 units today!
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Pittsburgh w/Maholm vs Peavy
Note: Pirates conclude their series with the Pirates in Pittsburgh Sunday afternoon when Paul Maholm takes on Jake Peavy and the Padres. A quick check of the numbers shows Maholm with an 8-2 mark at home with a 3.33 ERA this season while Peavy is 3-5 away with 4.53 ERA. Maholm's home ERA is more than a full run better than his road ERA while Peavy's road ERA is more than 3 runs higher than his home ERA. With Maholm 4-1 in days starts this season, look for Pittsburgh to surprise San Diego here this afternoon.
Dave Cokin
Braves @ Phillies
Play: Braves +120
It's not exactly wise to be asking the Braves to do anything positive on the road, but I think they have a good shot today. Campillo continues to provide mostly quality efforts and I prefer him to Blanton, who I believe the Phillies badly overpaid for in their deal with the A's (especially when considering how little the competition have been giving up in other deals). The Braves really blew on yesterday, coughing up a huge lead, but I'll go with them to rebound and score a win here against the Phillies.
Jimmy The Moose
Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
The White Sox are 7-13 in their last 20 road games. Chicago is 4-11 in their last 15 games as a road underdog. In their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winnig record the White Sox are 3-8. Chicago is 5-16 in Vazquez's last 21 starts as a road dog. Chicago has lost 4 of his last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Tigers are 13-5 in their last 18 games as a home favorite. In their last 54 games as a favorite they are 36-18. Miner pitched well in his first start of the season and the Tigers will be looking for more of the same this afternoon. Play on the Detroit Tigers -.
Ross Benjamin
Game: Florida @ Cubs
Pick: Florida +155
The Marlins have owned the Cubs over the last 2 seasons going 12-1 in the 13 meetings. The Cubs starter Jason Marquis is 1-3 with a hefty 8.14 ERA versus the Marlins since 2005. In 9 starts at home Marquis has posted a lofty 5.44 ERA. Chicago is 1-5 in their last 6 versus a right-handed starting pitcher. The Florida starter Rick VandenHurk seems to have benefitted from his demotion to the minors earlier this season. In his first start since his promotion VandenHurk threw 5.0 innings of no hit ball. The only negative was his 5 walks that resulting in him getting pulled from the game because of his pitch count. The Marlins are 8-2 in the last 10 as an underdog and 6-2 on the road this season in day games versus a right-handed starting pitcher. Play on the Florida Marlins as an underdog for my selection of the day.
Scott Ferrall
Angels -160 over Baltimore--they won't beat Ervin Santana
Chicago +115 over Detroit--I like Vazquez over Miner
Toronto -175 over Seattle and Washburn--he's about to get dealt and has tons of media bothering him and writing about him getting traded every day. Plus, he's on the road and the Jays are playing decent
Minnesota -110 over Cleveland--Blackburn over Sowers
Dodgers -150 over Nationals--Kershaw finally wins a game. He's staying up in the show now so he's not tripping about failure anymore
BIG UNIT -150 at San Fran--He'll work over the Giants and Zito blows--I've given up on this guy basically
Bobby Maxwell
Tampa Bay -130 at KANSAS CITY
Tampa Bay has dominated the Royals lately, going 17-7 in their last 24 matchups and took Saturday's matchup 5-3 behind pitcher Scott Kazmir. Today they'll get the job done again behind the pitching of Andy Sonnanstine (10-5, 4.54 ERA).
Sonnanstine is 5-2 on the road and the Rays have won seven of his last nine starts, even though they've dropped the last two. Tuesday he gave up three runs in seven innings of an 8-1 loss to the A's. But last time he saw these Royals he held them scoreless over seven innings of a 3-0 win back on July 5.
Kansas City has Kyle Davies (3-2, 4.58) on the mound today and he is just 1-2 at home with a 4.58 ERA. The Royals have lost his last three outings and four of his last five.
The Rays survived a rain delay to win Saturday night's game and they are 37-16 in their last 53 games as a favorite. And they are 9-2 when Sonnanstine starts as a favorite.
We're going pay the price and take the Rays.
3♦ TAMPA BAY
Brian Gabrielle
Take Kasey Kahne (+700), 1/6th unit. This week we head to the Brickyard, Indianapolis Motor Speedway, where the Car of Tomorrow has never raced. The closest track we can get to Indy to look at some historical numbers for the COT is Pocono, where the Cuppers raced last month. And in that event, Kahne was tops: he won the race, and he also came all the way through the field after a bad pit stop put him at the back of the pack. Kahne has a couple top-fives in his Brickyard history, and I think he's got a win in him on Sunday.
Take Jimmie Johnson (+700), 1/6th unit. J.J. broke my heart last Saturday losing late to Busch, but he proved that he's back to having the best cars when it matters most. Johnson won the Brickyard in '06 but then crashed out in '07, and in interviews this past week, he's come across quite a bit hungrier than usual. Expect the No. 48 to hang around for the race's first half, then adjust and come on like gangbusters late.
Take Brian Vickers (+1800), 1/6th unit. Second week in a row I'm going with the feisty Vickers. Last week at Michigan, he rewarded me with a fourth-place finish and a head-to-head win, and I think he's got as good an effort in him on Sunday. Vickers finished second at Pocono last month, illustrating that Team Red Bull understands what it takes to get around very fast flat tracks, and the Brickyard is one of those. There's still a shot Vickers wins a race this year; I don't think Vegas has quite caught up to how well he's running.
In this week's head-to-head match-up, take Vickers over Greg Biffle (+100), 1 unit. Vickers is an underdog in this one, and well he should be: Biffle sits seventh in points (compared to Vickers' 14th), and is favored to finish in the top 10 almost every single week. Still, his efforts at Pocono and Indy haven't been up to snuff the past couple years: he was 15th in the COT at Pocono in June and finished 24th, 30th and 23rd the three Pocono races before that, and his last three Indy finishes have been 15th, 33rd and 21st. It's always scary picking a "mid-major" against a superpower team like Roush Racing, but that's how impressed I've been with the No. 83 of late.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
LA Angels -139 over BALTIMORE
The Angels are 20-6 in their last 26 games vs. a left-handed starter and 8-1 in Santanas last 9 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150, while the Orioles are 13-39 in their last 52 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150, 1-15 in their last 16 games on Sunday and 1-9 in their last 10 vs. American League West. The Angels have the best road record in baseball, at 33-18, including a 15-7 mark in their last 22 away from home. They also come in rather hot as they have won 9 of their last 10 overall, while hitting over .310 and scoring 6.4 rpg in the process. Ervin Santana has been a big surprise for the Angeles this year, particularly on the road, where he is 8-1 with a 3.44 ERA. Overall Ervin is 11-4 with a 3.37 ERA and he is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA in 5 career starts vs the O's. Garrett Olsen has been really struggling of late, going 0-2 with a 10.52 ERA in his last 4 starts. Overall Garrett is 6-5, but with a high 6.11 ERA, including a 3-1 mark at home, with a 5.48 ERA at home. The Oriole offense has been good of late, but this team really struggles in day game, as they hit just .237 and score 3.8 rpg in them. Bottom line here is that the Angels are the much hotter team, with the much hotter offense and the much better starter on the mound. Angels get the sweep here.
2 UNIT PLAYS
TORONTO/ Seattle Under 9
The Under is 12-2-2 in Mariners last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning record and 8-1 in Washburns last 9 starts overall, while the Under is 8-1 in Blue Jays last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400 and 14-5 in Blue Jays last 19 vs. American League West. Last night these teams put up 11 runs, but in the prior 7 meetings this year just an average of 6 rpg were scored. In the last 17 games in the series, only 5 of them score 10 or more runs, with those games averaging just 6.8 rpg, including an average of 6.5 rpg being scored in the last 11 played at Toronto. Both teams have rough scoring situations in this one, as Toronto averages just 3.5 rpg vs lefty starters and just 4.5 rpg at home, While Seattle comes in averaging just 3.8 rpg vs righty starters, 3.6 rpg in day games and just 2.3 rpg in their last 6 games overall. Although it doesn't like it by his record, but Jarrod Washburn has pitched really well of late. Jarrod comes in with a 2.64 ERA in his last 8 starts, with those games averaging just 6.9 rpg. He does have a 4.57 ERA on the road overall, but just a 2.51 ERA in his last 5 starts away from home, plus he has a 2.77 ERA in 2 day starts on the year and a 2.25 ERA in 2 starts vs the Jay's this year. Shaun Marcum is off 2 rough starts, but he does have a nice 3.05 ERA overall, a 2.43 ERA at home and a 3.43 ERA in day games. HIs home starts this year have averaged just 6.7 rpg, while his overall starts have averaged just 7.7 rpg and his day starts have averaged just 7.3 rpg. A traditionally low scoring series will continue today. There won't be double digits scored in this one.
I ALSO LIKE
PHILADELPHIA -139 over Atlanta
1 UNIT PLAY
Tampa Bay -129 over KANSAS CITY
Nostradamus
Minnesota -105
Philadelphia -140
Milwaukee -165
Yanks/Bost Over 10
Arena Bowl-Philadelphia -4
SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (58-48) at N.Y. Mets (56-48)
The Cardinals snapped a five-game losing streak Saturday and now try to make it two in a row when they send Kyle Lohse (12-2, 3.35 ERA) to the mound to face Mets’ left-hander Johan Santana (8-7, 3.05) at Shea Stadium in New York.
Since opening the second half of the season with four straight wins, St. Louis had lost five in a row before Saturday’s 10-8, 14-inning victory when Albert Pujols delivered a two-run homer in the 14th to get the win.
New York has won three of its last four games and 15 of its last 19 overall to pull itself into sole possession of first place in the N.L. East. The Mets have won 10 of their last 12 home games and they have gone 8-5 in the last 13 series matchups with the Cardinals.
Lohse is 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA in his last three starts and he’s 6-1 on the road this season. St. Louis had won four straight Lohse outings but lost his last one when he gave up three runs in eight innings of a 4-3 loss at home to the Brewers on Tuesday. Back on June 30 he held the Mets to one unearned run in seven innings of a 7-1 win in St. Louis.
Santana is just 4-3 at Shea Stadium this season but his ERA is a stellar 2.59. On Tuesday he gave up just two runs in eight innings but New York’s bullpen imploded and the Mets fell to the Phillies 8-6. New York has lost seven of Santana’s last nine starts despite the southpaw allowing three earned runs or less in seven of the nine.
St. Louis is 11-2 in Lohse’s last 13 starts and 4-0 when he faces teams from the N.L. East. But overall the Cardinals are on a 1-7 slide against teams with a winning record. The Mets are 1-4 at home when Santana is favored and on an 0-5 slide when he faces teams with a winning record.
With Lohse on the hill, the under is on runs of 7-2-3 overall and 4-1-3 when he’s an underdog. The Cardinals have topped the total in 13 of their last 17 road games against southpaws. When Santana has faced N.L. Central teams the over is on a 4-0 run. As a team, the Mets are on under runs of 11-4-2 in their last 17 games as a favorite and 9-3-1 at Shea Stadium.
The under is 9-5-1 in the last 15 games between these two and 6-1 in the last seven meetings in New York.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. METS
Florida (55-49) at Chicago Cubs (60-44)
The Marlins will try to make it three in a row at Wrigley Field in Chicago when they send young Rick VandenHurk (1-1, 6.10 ERA) to the mound against the Cubs’ Jason Marquis (6-6, 4.44).
Florida has scored identical 3-2 wins in Chicago the last two days, including Saturday’s 12-inning affair. The Marlins have owned the Cubs lately, winning 12 of the last 13 matchups dating back to the 2006 season, and six of the last seven played in Chicago.
The Cubs are just 3-6 since the All-Star break but they have been tough to beat as a favorite, going 49-23 in their last 72 and at Wrigley they are 42-15 dating back to last season.
VandenHurk has made just three starts this season for the Marlins, but on Tuesday he no-hit the Braves for five innings and Florida went on to score a 4-0 win. He’s never faced the Cubs, but on the road last season the Marlins lost four of his last five starts.
The Cubs have lost three of Marquis’ last four starts, but last time he pitched at Wrigley he blanked the Giants on three hits for seven innings of a 3-1 win. On Tuesday he gave up three runs in six innings of a 9-2 loss in Arizona. For his career, he’s 4-5 against Florida with a 6.88 ERA.
The over is 5-1-1 in VandenHurk’s last seven road starts and 7-3 in the last 10 home starts for Marquis. Overall, the Marlins are on “over” runs of 38-18-6 on the road, 35-18-6 overall and 39-15-3 in their last 57 Sunday games. For the Cubs, the under is 9-2 in their last 11 against teams from the N.L. East.
For this series, the over is 16-8 in the last 24 overall and 15-8 in the last 23 in Chicago.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (58-45) at Boston (60-45)
The Yankees try to make it a sweep at Fenway Park when they send Sidney Ponson (6-1, 4.02) to the mound against Red Sox southpaw Jon Lester (8-3, 3.20).
New York has won eight straight since the All-Star break and beat Boston 10-3 on Saturday behind the pitching of veteran Andy Pettitte. The victory pulled the Yankees to within one game of Boston in the A.L. East standings and they trail the Rays by three games.
The Yankees are now 22-8 in their last 30 against teams with a winning record and they are 22-7 in their last 29 Sunday contests. Against the Red Sox, New York is 6-5 in 11 matchups this season and has won four straight, including three in a row at Fenway.
Despite two straight home losses, the Red Sox are still 41-12 in front of the home fans dating back to last season and 56-23 in their last 79 games as a favorite.
New York has won all four of Ponson’s starts in pinstripes, including Monday when he held the Twins to three runs in 5 2/3 innings of a 12-4 victory. In his lone road start for the Yankees he limited the Mets to just five hits through six innings of a 9-0 win at Shea Stadium. He’s not had much success against Boston, going 3-11 with a 6.61 ERA in 20 career starts, but he hasn’t faced the Red Sox in more than a year.
Lester has been brilliant lately, going 2-0 with a 1.90 ERA in his last three starts and Boston has won eight of his last nine trips to the mound. Last time out he threw 7 1/3 innings of shutout baseball at the Mariners as the Red Sox got a 4-0 road win. At Fenway he’s 4-1 with a 2.93 ERA and against the Yankees he’s 1-0 in two career starts with a 4.97 ERA. Back on July 3 he threw a complete-game shutout in New York, leading the Red Sox to a 7-0 win.
Boston is 25-9 in Lester’s last 34 outings and 13-3 when he faces teams from the A.L. East.
The under is 17-8-2 in Lester’s last 27 starts and 10-4 in his last 14 at home. For the Red Sox, the over is 12-4-1 in their last 17 at home against teams with a winning road record. For the Yankees, the under is on streaks of 20-8-2 overall, 7-0 against southpaws and 27-12-1 against A.L. East rivals.
In this rivalry, the over is 23-7 in the last 30 meetings at Fenway Park.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Maddux Sports - free pick
Results of their premium picks:
"After yesterday's 3-0 sweep we have started out the 2nd half with a 21-7 run for members. For Today we have 3 Baseball Picks. These picks are now ready to be sent to you within 10 minutes of purchase. As always these picks are guaranteed to win or tomorrow's MLB Baseball Picks are sent free of charge.....
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Today's Free Pick is LA Dodgers -150"