VEGAS EXPERTS
Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers
Washington is just playing terrible baseball right now having lost five straight. Last night's 6-0 setback marked the second time in three games that the Nats were shutout, a phenomenon that's all too familiar for this club as the rank at the bottom of MLB in runs scored per game (3.7). Furthermore, they are 0-8 in their last eight visits here and starter Jason Bergmann has a 2-12 TSR.
Play on: LA Dodgers
Mike Anthony
San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates conclude their series with the Pirates in Pittsburgh Sunday afternoon when Paul Maholm takes on Jake Peavy and the Padres. A quick check of the numbers shows Maholm with an 8-2 mark at home with a 3.33 ERA this season while Peavy is 3-5 away with 4.53 ERA. Maholm's home ERA is more than a full run better than his road ERA while Peavy's road ERA is more than 3 runs higher than his home ERA. This year the home teams have a major advantage with all the young players in the league. With Maholm 4-1 in days starts this season, look for Pittsburgh to surprise San Diego here this afternoon and get the win for us.
ATS Arena Football Lock Club
5 units on Philadelphia -3½ over San Jose,
SAPKOWSKI
Best Bet
Colorado
Premium
LA Angels
Free
Minnesota
Boston
EZWINNERS
3 STAR: (967) MINNESOTA (-$104) over Cleveland
(Listing Blackburn only) (Risking $312 to win $300)
3 STAR: (951) ST. LOUIS (+$166) over NY Mets
(Listing Lohse only) (Risking $300 to win $498)
PlusLineSports Daily Baseball Pick
LA Angels vs Baltimore Orioles
LA Angels -1.5 +116
JEFF MONEY
Angels -140 (pod)
DBacks -140
Rays -130
Larry Ness Superstar Triple Pack
Tigers
Reds
Pirates
Erin Rynning
Playmaker Padres / Pirates Under
Reg Oakland A's
Investment Playmakers
20* Tigers
KELSO
High Rollers Club
10 unit - Red Sox
10 unit - Red Sox Over
10 unit - Parlay
Red Dog Sports
LAA -138
The Orioles are 0-15 in their last 15 games on Sunday. I started noticing this streak when it was at 11. The Angels have won the first two games of this series by 6-5 and 11-6. The Angels have won 9 of 10 and are 33-18 on the road and now face a bad pitcher on the hill for the Birds.
Garrett Olson's ERA is 11.30 in his last 3 starts:
Tor 4.2 inn, 9 hits, 6 runs
Det 6 inn, 7 hits, 5 runs
Tor 3.2 inn, 7 hits, 7 runs
He walked either 3 or 4 in each one of those starts.
On the mound for LAA is Ervin Santana and the team is 12-8 when he starts. He is not the best pitcher in the league and is inconsistent. He could pitch a shutout or give up 6 runs to an Oriole team that is not bad with Brian Roberts, Melvin Mora, Aubrey Huff, Kevin Millar, Markakis, etc. However, his ERA is a decent 3.86 in his last 3.
The King Maker
PHI / ATL Over 9.5 1-Unit
Phillies OVER 4.5 -135 1/2-Unit
Braves OVER 4 -140 1/2-Unit
A "Scavenger Total" is a play where the books set a line for the overall total that is a FULL RUN less in the Team totals. We take all three totals, expecting to win all three, but definitley hoping for a split at the worst. The idea here is to pick a total clean.
*In this case, the Team Totals equal 8.5 runs and the Overall Total is 9.5 Runs.
The Umpire is a "stringer"!
A "stringer" is an Ump that runs up a high pitch count and strings the pitching staffs along.
I'm going to start with Alfonzo Marquez. He's our Umpire, and nobody strings out a pitch count like Alfonzo. The Fonz AVERAGES 325 pitches per game!
The league wants 280!
He's going to call the zone in such a way as to allow for more than 8 walks per game, that's 8 base runners at a minimum today.
Jorge Campillo has made 3 quality starts in a row, those teams were FLA, LAD, and SD. I saw the Florida game, and that was an inspired performance. Then we have pathetic San Diego, and Questionable LA.
The 4th game was against the Phillies, and that was NOT a quality start!
Atlanta BravesPitchersIP H RERBBSOHRPC-STERAJ Campillo (L, 3-3)5.085520286-512.99
The Umpire was Lance Barksdale, an OVER monger, just like Alfonzo Marquez!
I like our chances at 5 innings from Campillo, then a nice dose of Buddy Carlyle. I think this is what we will see if Campy gets shoved out and, by then, we may get to 5 runs for Philly.
Campillio has faced Philly twice this year and he lasted 5.0 and 5.1 innings. So we have a team that is familiar with Campy, and a team that racked up 8 runs in 10.1 innings, all earned!
Players of America
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
The Play: Boston Red Sox -155.0
Star Value: 3* (30 Units)
Call us crazy, but we're not buying into the whole road sweep thing by these new world beating New York Yankees. Yes, we realize they are THE New York Yankees and this late season run stuff is common, but let's break things down a bit before we jump on that train for the rest of the season.
Some call the faint playoff hopes for the Yankees exactly that...hope, but we're not ruling them out of anything yet. However, an ideal spot has been presented to us Sunday night between these two rivals. The spot is on the Red Sox.
This fierce rivalry is one of the best in sports. Sunday night at 8:05PM, the Yankees play their third game of a series set at Fenway Park in Boston. The BoSox are set to put young stud Jon Lester on the mound to start. Lester is an impressive 8-3 this season, 3-0 his last three games. He's got a WHIP of 1.31 and an ERA right around 3.10. The series between these two teams this year is split right down the middle at 5-5, but Sunday Boston pulls ahead. The big stick of David "Papi" Ortiz is back in the line up and the spark that offense needs starts now. Manny sat Saturday with knee soreness but is expected to also be healthy and in the line up come Monday night. With no other significant injuries, the Red Sox are ready to start playing ball and heading down that post season stretch. Lester threw against this Yankees squad on July 3 and threw an absolute gem and a 7-0 shutout. The Red Sox are stellar at home at 36-11 and the Yanks aren't going to be the ones to keep putting dents in that.
The Yankees aren't putting any slouch out there themselves Monday. The righty Sidney Ponson is 6-1 this season. He's got an ERA over 4.00 and a WHIP of 1.61 but manages to win ball games. In their last ten, the Yankees are 8-2 and playing out of their you know whats. All joyrides come to an end, especially when these two teams clash. New York is a bit more banged up offensively and in the field. Alex Rodriquez injured his elbow in Saturday's game against the Red Sox and is listed as "Doubtful" for Sunday's action. Joining him on the DL is catcher Jorge Posada and Hideki Matsui...both out indefinitely.
Stats are stats, trends are trends but rivalry games like this speak for themselves. As we've preached before...don't let the price scare you. Yes, it is a bit chalkier than we'd like, but hey-that's gambling. Boston wins this one in convincing fashion at Fenway in front of a fired up home crowd, opening up a new week. Play this one for a nice size, 30 unit wager and forget about the juice...
TRENDS OF THE GAME:
- The Red Sox are 40-11 in their last 51 home games.
- The Red Sox are 65-31 in their last 96 games on grass.
- The Red Sox are 21-5 in Lester's last 26 starts on grass.
Boston 8, New York 3
Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles
The Play: Under 10.0
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Our only other selection worthy of a plan on Sunday takes place at Camden Yards in Balitmore. The visiting Anaheim Angels take part of their set and are hosted by the Baltimore Orioles. The Halo's come in well above the .500 mark while the O's are salvaging anything they can the rest of the season and playing more or less for pride.
For Anaheim, Ervin Santana gets the nod and he comes in at a remarkable 11-4 overall, 2-1 his last three appearances. Santana is notorious for keeping totals low this year, doing so 12 of the last 16 times out. He has a solid, respectable ERA of 3.35 and a WHIP of 1.11 in just over 136 total innings pitched.
For Baltimore, their putting their faith in left hander Garret Olson who is 6-5 on the year in just 84 innings pitched. Both teams have an averaged bullpen of around a 3.15 ERA with an estimated 2.60 ERA available for Monday's match up. Meeting four times this season, two games have stayed under the total while the other two have been right on the edge of an over and a push. Anaheim holds the series lead at 3-1.
This is a huge gut check here for both teams, more the Angels than Baltimore. We've got a funny feeling this one is going to be a struggle. With the bats a little tired from last night's shootout, expect a low scoring affair with a few lousy runs here and there. Odds makers setting this total opener at expressed figure has over bettors licking their chops and biting on the bait like public squares...and more times than not, they lose. Simply put, Anaheim wins this one in a low scoring battle in Maryland. 10 units on the UNDER here.
TREND OF THE GAME:
- The UNDER is 25-11-2 in the Angel's last 38 road games.
Anaheim 4, Baltimore 1
JEFFERSONSPORTS
COLORADO-123
LA ANGELS-142