Robert Ross
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: San Francisco Giants
Johnson's last start came against the Cubs, a team he dominates. He has not fared as well vs. the Giants with his team losing 12 of his 22 lifetime starts. In addition, ARIZONA is 7-15 against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season while SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 against the money line after a game where their bullpen blew a save this season. Take San Francisco!
Ben Burns
Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies
Blanton wasn't particularly sharp in his Philadelphia debut. Like they did for Hamels when he struggled yesterday, his new team bailed him out and still won though. That's the benefit of pitching for a potent offensive team, like the Phillies - a luxury Blanton didn't enjoy in Oakland. This afternoon will mark his 'home debut' and I look for him to 'bounce back' with a solid effort. Note that he'll have the advantage of facing Atlanta for the first time.
Campillo has been tough for the Braves. He has struggled vs. the Phillies though, going 0-1 with a 5.27 ERA in two starts and two relief appearances. That includes an ugly 6.97 ERA and 1.696 WHIP in his two starts. Both of those came this season and both resulted in losses, 7-3 and 6-3. As Campillo failed to pitch six innings in either of those outings, it's worth noting that the Atlanta bullpen has a combined 7.56 ERA the last nine games. Consider a play on PHILADELPHIA
ATS Lock Canadian
3 units Saskatch/Toronto OVER 53.5
Robert Ferringo
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Minnesota at Cleveland
1.5-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (-110) over Cleveland
1-Unit Play. Take Cincinnati (+115) over Colorado
1-Unit Play. Take Los Angeles Angels (-145) over Baltimore
1-Unit Play. Take Oakland (-120) over Texas
1-Unit Play. Take Tampa Bay (-130) over Kansas City
Wunderdog
San Antonio at Detroit
Pick: Detroit -2
While San Antonio sits atop our power ratings along with Seattle, their strength certainly comes when they are on their home court. They are 12-2 at home but just 5-7 on the road. They are also playing poorly of late posting a 2-3 mark, allowing 79 points per game over their last five. Detroit is similar. They are just 6-8 on the road but 10-2 at home. Here at home they score 81.4 ppg. This is a small spread given that we have a 10-2 team facing a 5-7 team so we'll back the Shock.
The Hammer Guaranteed Selections
ESPN SUNDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE YEAR
NY Yankees w/Ponson +165
Youngstown Connection Guaranteed Selections
Los Angeles Angels -143
Marco D'Angelo Double-Dime Bet
DET (-115) vs CWS
GREG SHAKER
Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds
pICK: Over 9.5 Unit Value: 2
The Rockies are scoring runs and they will face a guy that they can hit. They themselves might give us what we want in the contest as Fogg is coming off a missed start due to being hit during batting practice and getting 30 stitches. This guy is marginal at best anyway so the missed start and probable off kilter is a good thing for our cause. Amazingly the Rocks managed just 5 runs last night on 16 hits with missed opps and some runners thrown out at the plate on basehits. While Jimenez is throwing very well, this is a hitter's Venue and the Reds have proven they can score runs as well. That has not happened in this series yet, but they have been averaging a lot of runs prior to that and should be able to plate a few. That should be enough for a winner here with this daytime game that usually produces more runs at this park.
Steve Merril
St Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets
Pick: New York Mets
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Pick: New York Yankees
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies
Ben Burns
Boston Red Sox -165 / 5 units
I'm laying the price with BOSTON. Every game between these two hated rivals is a 'big' one, for both teams. Tonight's game is arguably 'bigger' for the Bosox though. That's because they're on the verge of losing three straight games at home for the first time and seeing the Yankees pull even with them in the standings. I expect the Red Sox to respond with a massive effort. I also expect them to enjoy a 'big' edge in the pitching department. Both starters have impressive win/loss records. However, Lester has been the much better pitcher recently. Last time out, he pitched 7 1/3 scoreless inning at Seattle, striking out six without walking a batter. The Red Sox won that game by a score of 4-0. Earlier this month, he tossed a complete game shutout at Yankee Stadium, allowing only five hits while recording eight K's to just two walks. The Red Sox won that game by a score of 7-0. Even including a sub-par outing vs. the Twins (Red Sox still won that game) which was mixed in between the two shutouts, he's still got an outstanding 1.91 ERA and 1.141 WHIP his last three outings. On the other hand, Ponson is starting to show his true colors. He's been a below-average pitcher for several years in a row and he's beginning to allow an awful lot of baserunners. In fact, he has an ugly 5.94 ERA and 1.80 WHIP his last three outings, allowing 31 baserunners in just 16 2/3 innings. He can't be too happy to face a highly motivated Red Sox lineup which should again have both Ramirez and Ortiz together. Indeed, Ortiz has a .444 average against him while Ramirez has a .404 mark against him. Overall, he's 3-11 with a terrible 6.61 ERA and 1.749 WHIP in 20 starts against the Red Sox. The last time he pitched at Fenway was in August of 2006 (also vs. Lester) and he allowed seven runs (6 earned) in just three innings of work. The price, which may seem a bit steep at first glance, seems much more reasonable when considering that the Red Sox are a highly profitable 15-2 the last 17 times they were listed in the -150 to -175 range. Look for them to rise to the occasion and avoid the sweep.
Oakland Athletics -118 / 4 units
The A's are in danger of being swept and also of falling to .500 for the first time since early April. That makes this an extremely important game and I expect them to respond with a massive effort. I also expect the A's to have the edge on the mound. Dana Eveland has a solid 3.06 ERA in 11 home starts this season. The A's were 7-4. He's been extremely consistent in those games, allowing three earned runs or less in six straight home starts and 10 of 11 overall. He has also been tough in his daytime starts, going 4-2 with a 3.56 ERA, holding opposing hitters to a .239 average in those games. Rookie Hurley has also been solid for the Rangers. However, he has a mediocre 4.50 ERA in his two road starts and both of them resulted in Texas losses. It's also worth noting that Hurley has a 2.70 ERA in three evening starts but a poor 6.00 ERA in his lone daytime appearance. That game saw him allow four runs in six innings at KC, en route to a 6-5 loss. Additionally, he's coming off the disabled list and making his first start since July 8. The A's also have the edge in the bullpen department. The A's relievers entered the weekend with a 3.43 ERA at home and a 1.207 WHIP. The Rangers' relievers entered the weekend with a 5.19 ERA and a 1.505 WHIP on the road. While Oakland still has a winning record against right-handers, the Rangers are well below .500 against southpaw starters. In fact, despite all the big bats in the Texas lineup, the A's average more runs per game against right-handers than the Rangers do vs. left-handers. The Rangers are 0-3 their last three games vs. left-handed starters and a money-burning 5-12 their last 17. Look for the A's to step up and avoid the sweep.
Toronto Argonauts / Saskatchewan Roughriders Under 54.0 / 5 units
Both teams faced rather porous defenses in their last game which helped lead to both their respective games finishing below the total. That's helped cause the general public to favor the 'over' here which in turn has helped give us excellent value with the UNDER. Looking at the series history between these clubs and we find that the UNDER is 9-5 the last 14 meetings. The last eight of those games ALL had over/under lines in the 40s, again illustrating the 'value' which today's higher number presents us with. Note that ALL eight of those games finished with 54 combined points or less. Those eight games averaged just 39 points. One of the major reasons for today's higher number is that the Argos defense has given up a lot of points thus far. While they have been poor against the run, keep in mind that the Argos have still been the second best team in the entire league at defending the pass. Additionally, let's not forget that this has been one of the CFL's best defensive teams for years now. The defense has still got a lot of pride and they're hungry to get back to playing 'Argo football' on that side of the ball. It's true that the unit will be without linebacker Kevin Eiben. We saw what Winnipeg did earlier this week though, when playing without its star linebacker Barrin Simpson. The rest of the unit elevated its game and the defense came out with a major chip on its shoulder. I expect a similar mentality from the Argos' defensive players here. Dating back to last season, the Argos have seen the UNDER go 7-4 their last 11 road games. Unlike the Argos, the Riders have mostly been stingy on the defensive side of the ball. They rank second in fewest yards allowed, second in fewest rushing yards allowed and third in fewest passing yards allowed. They've seen four of their last six home games stay UNDER the total. Look for this evening's final combined score to be lower that most are expecting one again with the UNDER improving to 9-2 the last 11 times that the Argos were listed as underdogs.
VEGAS RUNNER
TAM (-133) vs KAN 3* BEST BET of the DAY
TORONTO -160 & LA DODGERS -143 (2*) PARLAY WAGER
COL (-125) vs CIN 2* ML WAGER ** (Jimenez vs Fogg)
ARI (-140) vs SFG 2* ML WAGER
PIT (+112) vs SDP 1* ML WAGER
ANA (-145) vs BAL 1* ML WAGER
HEAVY HITTERS WNBA for SUNDAY
1.) ATLANTA +7 (-120) 1*
2.) OVER 158.5 NYL/ATL (1*)
3.) INDIANA +7 (-120) (1*)
NASCAR for SUNDAY
1.) KASEY KAHNE +900 (1/2 *)
2.) JIMMIE JOHNSON +400 (1/2*)
...There is Value on Brian Vickers at +3500...but based on the month of July, we decided to be more conservative with our Units which is why I chose to only put out 1unit Total in Nascar
SEABASS
Comp – Mil/Hou Under
20 – TB
20 – STL
20 – ATL
20 – BOS
50 – SD/Pitt Under
50 – Min
100 – LAA
Insider - 100* Texas/Oakland Under
CFL - 100* Saskatchewan
50 – PHL (AFL Championship)
LT Profits PLAY OF THE DAY
Detroit Tigers -120 / 2 units
The Tigers are looking to avoid a three-game home sweep, and they should play with some sense of urgency here, as they do not want the first place White Sox to make that kind of statement, especially when a loss today would drop Detroit nine games back in the loss column. Zach Miner came out of the bullpen to toss six scoreless innings in his first start this year, allowing only three hits vs. Kansas City. This is not a new role for Miner, who was an effective starter at times in the past, so we do not think that last start was a fluke. Meanwhile Javier Vazquez has faltered after a great start for the White Sox, as he has just two Quality Starts in his last eight outings.
The Prez
Minnesota Twins / Cleveland Indians Under 9.5 / 4 units
The Cleveland Indians are playing for next year. Theyve traded away any contract or injury issues and look to the future with a young lineup.
Nick Blackburn (7-6, 3.83 ERA) is coming off his shortest start of the season after lasting only 1.2 innings on Monday against the Yankees, allowing six runs - three earned and seven hits. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 2.04 lifetime ERA in two starts and two relief appearances against the Indians, with both starts coming this year.
Jeremy Sowers (1-5, 6.44) pitched six innings in his last start on July 19 against Seattle, allowing four runs and five hits to earn his first victory in over a year. Sowers allowed four runs on five hits in six innings. Sowers spent the last week improving some mechanical changes he made prior to the All Star break. Combine his recent revelations with his 1-1 and 3.13 ERA in three career starts against the Twins and the lefty has a chance to earn his second win in what should be a low scoring (getaway) game on Sunday in Cleveland.
Home Plate umpire Jeff Nelson is pitcher-friendly in every way, and arguably the best in-game umpire in the league. The Under is 10-1-1 in Nelsons last 12 games behind home plate vs. Cleveland and 7-3-1 in Nelsons last 11 games behind home plate vs. Minnesota.
The UNDER is 6-2-1 in Indians last 9 games as a home underdog, and 45-14-1 in Indians last 60 getaway and Game 3 of a series (8-1-1 in Sowers last 10 starts in these situations).
The UNDER is 23-9-2 in Twins last 34 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-1 in Blackburns last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
The elements, pitchers, struggling offenses and home plate umpire make this very high AL Total a Getaway Game of the Week play on the UNDER.
4 UNIT Play on UNDER the 9.5 in Cleveland