Larry Ness
20* Total of the Month
The Padres own a four-game losing streak after losing the first two games of their home series with the Giants. They lost 3-2 (10 innings) on Friday and were shutout 2-0 last night. While the Padres dominated the Giants last year going 14-4 (8-1 in Petco), "the shoe has been on the other foot" this year, as the Giants have taken SEVEN of the 10 games played. With last night's loss, San Diego has now dropped four straight home games to the Giants, getting shut out two times and scoring a grand total of just four runs. Frankly, Giants haven't been much better, scoring only nine runs in their four-game winning streak at Petco. Actually, that should come as no surprise as the Padres are hitting just .245 and average only 3.75 RPG, while the Giants are hitting .254, averaging an equally modest 3.89 RPG. Eight of the 10 meetings between these two teams have gone 'under,' including the last four. Going for San Diego is Greg Maddux, who has been a longtime nemesis of the Giants. The future Hall-of-Famer is 29-14 with a 2.81 ERA in 52 career starts against the Giants. He is unbeaten over his last 11 starts against them (6-0 with a 2.33 ERA) and that includes 1-0 mark with a 1.35 ERA in three outings this season (20 IP / 3 ERs). In fact, he hasn't lost to the Giants since May of 2003! So why am I going 'over?' Let's start with Maddux. While he's posted a 1.35 ERA in his three starts vs the Giants this year, TWO of those three games have gone over. Furthermore, most people know that Maddox has struggled through a very tough year in '08. After winning his 350th career game on May 10th, he went 14 starts without a win, posting a 0-5 mark with a 4.54 ERA during that span (team was 6-8). His winless drought ended in his most recent start, when the Padres beat the D'backs 8-5 on July 27. However, Maddux was hardly sharp, allowing nine hits and four ERs in five innings. Yes Maddux owns a 2.84 ERA in 12 home starts this year but look at his current form. He's made seven starts since June 25 (four home and three away), allowing 30 ERs over 37.2 innings for a 7.17 ERA (FIVE of those seven games have gone over!). Now for all of San Francisco's woes in scoring runs this year, the one situation in which the team has hit well, occurs in this game. In 14 daytime road games vs right-handed starters, the Giants are averaging 5.0 RPG. Now let's get to SF's starter, Kevin Correia. He's been around since 2003, not doing much anything. The last two seasons he made 107 appearances but only eight starts. However, 12 of his 13 appearances this year have been as a starter and he enters this game 2-5 with a 5.80 ERA (team is 3-9). He's made six road starts this year, allowing 40 hits and 22 ERs over 31 innings, for a 6.39 ERA. In his last four starts (two home and two away), he's got a 7.71 ERA with all four games going over and those four games averaging 12.3 RPG! Like the Giants, the Padres are also in a rare "good situation" in this game. In 12 home daytime games vs a right-hander, the Padres have averaged 5.2 RPG.
NL Total of the Month 20* SF/SD Over.
Daytime Delight
The Mets were in first-place at the completion of play on Tuesday but after losing at Florida on Wednesday plus Friday and Saturday night in Houston, the Mets have fallen to third in the highly-competitve NL East. They are a half-game behind the Marlins and two games back of the Phillies. The Mets bullpen has blown-up in both games in Houston this weekend. First it allowed the Astros to beak open a 3-2 game on Friday night with a five-run 8th. Then last night, Johan Santana saw his bullpen blow a potential win for the FOURTH time this year, letting a 4-1 eighth-inning lead dissolve into a 5-4 Houston win (10 innings). However, I expect the Mets to bounce back here, with Oliver Perez squaring off against Randy Wolf. Perez got his career back on track by going 15-10 with a 3.56 ERA for the Mets last year and while he only takes a 7-6 mark with a 4.02 ERA on the season into today's game, it's his current form that should grab your attention. Perez is just 2-1 over his last six starts but that's FAR from the whole story. He's allowed just six ERs over 39.2 innings during that span, for a 1.36 ERA (he owns MLB's lowest ERA since June 29). More importantly, the Mets have won FIVE of those six starts. His mound opponent will be veteran lefty, Randy Wolf. Wolf has spent most of the '08 season with San Diego but was acquired by the Astros on July 22. I'm still not sure what Houston saw in Wolf's performances this year that made them want to add him to its rotation. Wolf was 6-10 with a 4.74 ERA in 21 starts for the Padres in '08, including a 1-6 mark with a 7.64 ERA over his final seven starts with San Diego. He took a 1-6 mark with a 6.63 ERA in 10 road starts (SD was 1-9) TY into his first start of '08 for Houston last Sunday in Milwaukee. Wolf hardly pitched well (4.1 IP / 7 hits / 4 runs of which 3 were earned) but the Astros won 11-6. He can't expect that kind of support here, as Perez is one of MLB's hottest pitchers plus he'll be facing a New York team which is 21-11 vs lefties in '08, averaging 5.4 RPG in 15 road games (9-6).
Daytime Delight on the NY Mets.
GINA
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs have won 13 of their last 17 games against the Pittsburgh Pirates and have beaten them in ten of its last 14 meetings at home.
Chicago is 40-15 at home this season, the best in the National League and right-hander Zambrano is 6-0 with a 2.28 ERA in 11 starts at Wrigley, 10-6 with a 3.93 ERA in 22 career games against the Pirates. Pittsburgh’s right-hander Ian Snell is 1-5 with a 5.26 ERA in nine career starts against the Cubs. Go with the Cubs at Wrigley Field with their ace Carlos Zambrano on the hill.
Chicago Cubs - 270
Chris Jordan
Detroit at TAMPA BAY
We’re going to play James Shields here, as he’ll be hungry to avenge his seventh loss of the season – last Monday in Toronto – especially since the outing marked his 15th quality start of the season. He allowed three earned runs over 7-1/3 frames and didn’t allow a batter to reach first by a base on balls.
With Tampa swinging the sticks back at Tropicana Field, I suspect the right-hander will do his part with that fiery heater, while keeping the struggling Tigers off balance with his exceptional change and curve. He’s really been able to execute his arsenal effectively this season, and by adding a cutter to the mix, he’s become much more confident to challenge batters on both sides of the plate.
That confidence will exude against a team he’s 2-0 against in his career, not to mention who he’s thrown a rather stingy 2.25 ERA against. We lay the run line here, as the Rays roll large, and Shields protects the lead.
2♦ DEVIL RAYS RUN LINE
Michael Cannon
Chicago White Sox -105 at KANSAS CITY
Take the White Sox this afternoon over the Royals for your Sunday free winner.
Zack Greinke will get the start for the Royals and he’s been shelled by the White Sox in his career. The right-hander is just 2-8 with a 5.10 ERA lifetime against Chicago.
Clayton Richard will make his third career start for Chicago and I think that gives the Sox the advantage today. The Royals haven’t seen him yet, so there’s no real book out on the left-hander.
Take the White Sox as they finish out their road trip with a win over the Royals.
2♦ CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Yankee Capper
3 Units - Indians/Twins Over 9
3 Units - Cleveland Indians
KELSO
High Rollers Club
15 units - Rockies
Best Bets Club
5 units - Mets
4 units - Angels
3 units - White Sox/Royals Over
Sorry, no BOOKIE PAYS YOU pick will be issued by them today.
I got an email from them announcing that.
JEFFERSON SPORTS
MLB EARLY RELEASE
COLORADO+125
ST. LOUIS-107
LA DODGERS-120
NFLX
COLTS+5
Steven Budin
25 DIME PLAY - KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Mr A
Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays
Detroit Tigers are 1-4 in their last 5 games versus the Tampa Bay Rays and have dropped five of its last 6 at Tropicana Field.
Detroit 's Armando Galarraga (9-4, 3.36) is 2-1 with a 3.79 ERA in his last three starts and is 7-2 with a 2.60 ERA in 11 road starts this season. The right-hander has never faced the Rays.
Tampa Bay's James Shields (9-7, 3.66 ERA) is 2-1 with a 2.78 ERA in his last three starts and is 7-1 with a 2.16 ERA in 12 starts at home this season. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in two career starts against the Tigers.
Detroit's rookie right-hander Armando Galarraga has pitched well, but Rays' James Shields has been awesome at home. The Tigers have lost six of their last nine games and will have a big task against the Rays and James Shields at Tropicana Field.
Take the Tampa Bay Rays for a sweep and their fifth straight victory against Detroit this afternoon in the Sunshine State. Tampa Bay is 42-16 at home this year and 20-6 in Shields' last 26 home starts.
Tampa Bay Rays - 155
PlusLineSports Daily Baseball Pick
Pittsburg Pirates vs Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs -1.5 -122
Larry Ness
TAM vs DET
Everyone keeps waiting for the Tigers to make their "big push" but Detroit seems to be stuck right around the .500 mark and in fact, is just that (55-55) after back-to-back losses in Tampa to the Rays. Conversely. most observers are waiting for Tampa's "inevitable collapse" but the Rays keep rolling, entering today's game at 65-44, three games ahead of the Red Sox (5 1/2 up on the Yanks) in the AL East. Detroit will try to avoid getting swept in Tampa this weekend by sending Armando Galarraga (9-4, 3.36 ERA) to the mound. He's been outstanding for them in road starts this year, going 7-2 with a 2.60 ERA in 11 outings (team is 8-3). However, Tampa owns more home wins (42) than any team in MLB and has been MLB's biggest "money-maker" at home in '08, at plus-$2,117 vs the moneyline. James Shields (9-7, 3.66 ERA) gets the start for Tampa and as good as Galarraga has been on the road for the Tigers, Shields has been even better at home for the Rays. He's 7-1 with a 2.16 ERA in 12 home starts this year, with the Rays going 11-1. Take the ever-surprising Rays.
EZWINNERS
3 STAR: (918) NY YANKEES (+$110) over LA Angels
(Action) (Risking $300 to win $330)
3 STAR: (910) ST. LOUIS (-$105) over Philadelphia
(Listing Wellemeyer and Myers) (Risking $315 to win $300)
1 STAR: (901) COLORADO (+$124) over Florida
(Action) (Risking $100 to win $124)
1 STAR: (916) LA DODGERS (-$119) over Arizona
(Action) (Risking $119 to win $100)
The Hitman Guaranteed Selections
5000 LARGE PERFECT DIAMOND BLOWOUT WINNER
Florida w/Olsen -133
Winning Points
NY METS -130 over HOUSTON
Look for the Mets to salvage this final game of the series in this favorable lefty against lefty match-up. So far in '08 New York has amassed a stellar 21-11 record vs. southpaws (+$610),and they should fare well against Randy Wolf,who struggled in his first start for the Astros.Oliver Perez has looked very sharp in recent days (1.32 ERA last two starts) and he does his best work in day games. Houston is not a factor in the playoff chase, so the Mets will be the more motivated team today.