BIG AL
81.3% BASEBALL TV GAME OF THE YEAR
Cardinals
SCOTT FERRALL
BASEBALL LOCKS FOR SUNDAY
Marlins -135 over Rockies--Florida wins in the heat as Rockies wild on the road again
Milwaukee -155 and Sheets over Braves and Campillo--told you the Brew Crew would get better in Atlanta
Cincy -120 and Cueto in Washington against Nats
Mets -135 and Oly Perez snap 3 game funk at Astros
Cards -115 and Wellemeyer over Myers and Phils at Busch
Texas -115 over Toronto--I just like the Rangers at home with the kind of plays I saw Hamilton make on Saturday, even though Mendoza blows
Seattle +105 over Baltimore--miralcles never cease as Silva finally wins a game for M's over Cabrera
Chicago (even odds) over Royals--White Sox get to Greinke in KC
Cleveland +165 at Minney--I'm feeling a little upset here because Liriano is aweful
BASEBALL OVER-UNDERS FOR SUNDAY
TEX-TOR OVER 12 RUNS
BALT-SEATT OVER 9.5 RUNS
CHI-KC UNDER 9.5 RUNS
MINN-CLEVE OVER 8.5 RUNS
DET-TB UNDER 8.5 RUNS
OAK-BOS OVER 8.5 RUNS
ANGELS-YANKS UNDER 9.5 RUNS
DODGERS-D'BACKS UNDER 8 RUNS
SF-SD UNDER 8 RUNS
PITT-CHICAGO OVER 8.5 RUNS
PHILLY-CARDS OVER 9 RUNS
HOUS-NY UNDER 9 RUNS
CINCY-WASH UNDER 9 RUNS
MILW-ATL UNDER 8 RUNS
COLO-FLA OVER 9.5 RUNS
Comps
Tampa and Shields -150 over Tigers--meltdown time for the Tigers--what a shitty season they've gone through of ups and downs-and they are down again
Boston -260 over Oakland--only because the A's are collapsing after losing 5 straight. Go light with that price
LACKEY -130 and Angels at Yankees--Rasner can't beat LA and Lackey is the MAN !
Arizona +105 at Dodgers--Davis over J.Johnson at the Revine. It's not going to be a party every day for LA with Manny R.
SF +140 at SD--Why not take the Giants-they're actually better than these crappy Padres
CUBS -250 and Zambrano over Bucs (Snell)--The Pirates already won their one game at Wrigley-which I hit on Friday I might add at +190 for you--your welcome
Oscarxena Sports
Washington +1.11 (3 Unit Play)
I am not really sure how oddsmakers can continue to make Cincinnati a road favorite as they are just playing horrible baseball right now as they have dropped seven of their last eight games and appear to be playing out the string right now. The Reds will look to Johnny Cueto today to get them a victory but Cueto has really been free falling lately as he is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in his last four starts and on the road this year he has a 5.70 ERA in 53 2/3 innings with a 1.55 WHIP. I really like what Washington did on Thursday as they dumped Lopez, LoDuca and Estrada who were doing nothing for them all year and committed to their younger players to get them some experience and they have responded by scoring 15 runs in their past two games. The Nationals will give the ball to Colin Balester who is making only his sixth start but he had a nice outing against the powerful Phillies lineup on Tuesday and I trust him a lot more than I do the Reds and Cueto right now. Today's HP Umpire is Mike Estabrook who so far this year has went 9-5 for the home team and I will take a shot on the home underdog Nationals here today.
Ben Burns
Today's Pick: FLORIDA MARLINS
We won our complimentary selection on the Marlins yesterday and we'll go back to the well again today. Their recent streak notwithstanding, the Rockies remain among the worst road teams in baseball. In fact, they're the only team in the majors with 40 'away' losses, bringing an ugly 19-40 road record to the table. They haven't had much success in the afternoon, either. Indeed, in 31 daytime starts, they're now a money-burning 11-20, costing their backers -11.7 units against the moneyline. On the other hand, the Marlins are a healthy 33-25 at home. They're also a profitable 16-11 (+9.5) when playing during the afternoon.
In addition to having both the "time advantage" and the homefield edge, the Marlins should enjoy an advantage in the starting pitching department. Olsen gets the call and he's got a solid 3.12 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 13 home starts, eight of them resulting in Florida victories. Conversely, the Rockies are 1-2 in Rusch's three road starts and he has a poor 5.17 ERA in those games. His overall numbers are even worse, as he's got a 5.70 ERA and 1.564 WHIP in 19 appearances, the majority coming while working out of the bullpen. Consider Florida.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -1.5 -112
Normally I like to get underdog value with run lines, but I'll still take the Cubs on the run line here to get them at an affordable price. The Pirates are just 4-13 in the last 17 meetings and 2-9 in the last 11 meetings in Chicago . The Pirates are only 10-42 in their last 52 games as a road underdog of +201 or greater. The Cubs are 40-15 at home this season and have won Zambrano's last 4 home starts. Take the Cubbies on the run line.
Joseph D'Amico
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee came out of the All-Star break the hottest team in baseball then faded a bit but now seems to be back on track.The Brewer's have won two in a row .Both games have been over the Brave's as they have outscored Atlanta 13-3 in those games. Milwaukee is one of only five teams in baseball with a winning road record at 30-26 away from home. On the mound for the Brewer's today is right-hander Sheets. he is 6-1 on the road with an ERA of just 2.81. In his 21 overall starts this season,the team is 14-7 behind him. he is 1-0 in 9.0 innings pitched and an ERA of 1.00 versus Atlanta this season. For the Brave's ,right-hander Campillo is 2-2 at home with a 9.96 ERA. In his 14 starts this year ,the team is 7-7 behind him. Take the Brewer's.
Vegas Experts
Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers
Both Toronto and Texas are going with inexperienced pitchers for this series finale. The Blue Jays are going with 26-year old left-hander David Purcey who has had only three starts in his career, all this season. He has a 1-2 TSR with an 8.10 ERA in 13 1/3 innings. In his only start on the road, he lasted only 3 innings and gave up 8 earned runs. He will be facing the best home hitting team in the league as the Rangers are hitting .305 as a team this year at home. The Rangers will start right-hander Luis Mendoza who went head-to-head with Roy Halladay earlier in the season going 5 innings only giving up one run in a tough 4-1 loss. Look for the Rangers to hit Purcey early and hard.
Play on: Texas Rangers
LT Profits
New York Yankees +110)
The New York Yankees beat the Los Angeles Angels 8-2 here yesterday, and they now look to salvage a split of the four-game series in a rare home underdog role today.
Now John Lackey is having a great year for the Angels and he lost a no-hitter with one out in the ninth inning vs. the Red Sox in his last start. However, he has had some rough outings lately, allowing five earned runs or more in three of his last five starts, and he did toss 120 pitches in his no-hit bid on Tuesday. Also, he did not exactly fool the Yankee hitters the last time he faced them, allowing four runs on nine hits in seven innings.
As for Yankee starter Darrell Rasner, he may be just 5-8 with a 4.92 ERA overall, but he has pitched much better at home where he is 3-3 with a respectable 3.80 ERA in seven home starts. This will also be his first career starts vs. the Halos, which should give him the advantage.
Yes, the Angels have the best road record in baseball, but that seems to be overly compensated with this line.
Pick: Yankees +110
Tom Freese
Los Angeles at New York
The Angels are 7-1 their last 8 roads games vs. winning teams and they are 20-6 vs. a team that scored 5 or more runs in their last game. Los Angeles is 20-8 their last 28 games vs. righty starters and they are 11-3 in 14 starts made by John Lackey this year. The Halos are 35-17 their last 52 road games. New York is 2-8 their last 10 games as home dogs and they are 3-8 in the last 11 starts made by Darrell Rasner. The Yankees are 1-4 when playing Game 4 of a series. PLAY ON LA ANGELS -
Brian Hansen
Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays
Great price on the best home team in the big leagues. The Rays have been money in the bank at home all year where they now have an awesome 42-16 record. Shields has been a big part of that. In 12 home starts, he's 7-1 with an outstanding 2.16 ERA. Can anyone spell S-W-E-E-P? Tampa rolls again!
FRANK ROSENTHAL
901 ROCKIES+125 SB
905 REDS-120 SB
907 NYM-120 SB+
909 PHILLY-105 SB
912 CUBS OVER 8.5 SB+
914 PADRES-145 SB
917 ANGELS-115 SB
921 TIGERS+140 SB
927 COOKIES UNDER 9.5 SB+
930 RANGERS-105 SB
STEPHEN NOVER
Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Baltimore Orioles
In a baseball world full of bad pitchers, Seattle's Carlos Silva just may be the worse. At least during the past three months.
Silva is 1-12 in his last 16 starts with a 7.57 ERA. Opponents are batting .351 against him. Yet the Mariners keep holding their noses and pushing him out there.
Such is the case today against an Orioles squad that knows how to do one thing right. That one thing is beat Seattle. Baltimore is 8-1 this season versus the Mariners. The Orioles have sprung to life, winning five of their last six games.
Seattle remains more dead than Jimmy Hoffa with the worst record in the American League, a staggering 27 games out of first place in its AL West Division.
Now the Mariners face streaky Daniel Cabrera, fresh off a quality victory against the Yankees on Tuesday. Cabrera is 4-0 with a 3.79 ERA lifetime at Safeco Field.
It's not often I like to lay a price with the Orioles, even a little one like this, but in this instance it's justified.
DAVID MALINSKY
Colorado Rockies @ Florida Marlins
PICK: Under 4*
After the Marlins exploded against the inconsistent Jorge de la Rosa early Thursday's game, this series has settled down to the tune of a 7 and an 8 the last two nights. Now the oddsmakers are calling this one a “50-50” affair to reach double figures, and that price point is wrong for the matchup.
It is understandable that Glendon Rusch is not getting a lot of market respect, but the veteran left-hander is on a 3-0/3.74 run since joining the Colorado rotation, and while he lacks the stuff to keep that up for a long stretch, he brings the kind of savvy that can keep it going short-term. The Mariners have struggled against exactly his type of lefty offerings this season, being a most impatient team at the plate (they lead the N.L. in strikeouts, and are dead last in strikeout to walk ratio). Rusch has only walked two batters through those four starts, and can induce a lot of easy contact outs vs. a lineup that will swing at a lot of pitches on the borders of the strike zone. The absence of Hanley Ramirez from that lineup only makes the task easier.
Scott Olsen continues to show a home/away bias that is not being priced properly, with a 5.37 from visiting mounds vs. a 3.12 here, and we also get value with his name in the pitching forms because of the 1-2/5.94 showing for his last three starts. But that post-All Star break period has had him go up against the Phillies, Cubs and Mets, and now he gets a chance to finally step down in class here, while also bringing a chip on his shoulder - he was the starter at Coors Field on the 4th of July when the wind turned that particular Rocky/Marlin affair into a bizarre 18-17 Colorado win. With Ricky Nolasco working such a strong outing on Saturday it also means that all key arms are rested and ready in the bullpen, which makes it even harder for this high Total to be reached.
Charlie Scott
New York Mets vs. Houston Astros
Play: New York Mets
Take a shot here with the Mets, but don't lay anything over -130. I have watched the Mets all season long, and just feel that they will do whatever thay have to do to avoid a sweep to the Astros. Mets pitcher Perez has been dominant since the All Star Break, and expect him to deliver a solid performance here.
Silver Fox
2* Milwaukee