Tony Weston
MILWAUKEE BREWERS -1½
So far in this weekend series the Brewers haven’t allowed any runs to the Nats, having outscored them, on average, 5.5-0. Also consider that over these teams last five meetings the Brewers are 4-1 and have outscored Washington by an average of 5.2-2.4. Also keep in mind that in this five-game stretch the Nationals have scored more than three runs only once. You also want to remember that Washington is only 2-3 its last five games and is 3-9 its last 12 games on the road. In that 12-game stretch the Nats have been outscored 4.4-2.6 on average per game. Washington has been horrible away from home and won’t even come close to hanging with the Brewers. Go with Brewers Run Line on this one day.
3♦ MILWAUKEE BREWERS -1½
Jeff Benton
ST LOUIS CARDINALS
Obviously, Ryan Dempster has been a beast for Chicago at home this season. However, former St. Louis ace Chris Carpenter has looked very good in his first two starts since coming back after a 16-month layoff following major arm surgery. And to get him at this kind of a plus-price against a team he’s had a lot of success against in his career is too good to pass up. Carpenter is 7-2 with a 3.07 ERA in 13 career starts against the Cubs, including 3-1 with a 2.37 ERA in his last eight outings against Chicago going back to the start of the 2005 season. So far in his two games this year, Carpenter has allowed just one run on eight hits in nine innings of work (1.00 ERA), walking just two and striking out four. On Tuesday against the Dodgers, he needed just 51 pitches to get through five innings before a lengthy rain delay forced him from the game. As for Dempster, he’s been dynamite pretty much all year. However, after going 11-0 in his first 11 starts at Wrigley Field, the Cubs have lost Dempster’s last three to the Giants (4-2), Marlins (3-2) and Astros (2-0). I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see loss No. 4 in a row come tonight in another low-scoring affair. Take a shot with the Redbirds.
3♦ ST LOUIS CARDINALS
Carlo Campanella
Cleveland Indians at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Cleveland Indians
Cleveland ends up a small road Favorites here as they start Lee on the mound in Toronto on Sunday. With Cleveland leading this series 4-1 yjis year, we'll back this road chalk knowing that Lee is an awesome 11-2 against fellow A.L. teams with a team batting average below .265% this season! Total pitching mismatch as he faces Scott Richmond, who's been shelled for a combined 6 Earned Runs in his last 11 Innings Pitched.
7* Play On Cleveland
JEFFERSONSPORTS
MLB EARLY RELEASE FOR SUNDAY
CLEVELAND-133
LA ANGELS-125
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Florida (61-56) at N.Y. Mets (62-54)
Red-hot Mike Pelfrey (10-7, 3.85 ERA) leads the Mets against Josh Johnson (2-0, 3.34) and the Marlins as these two N.L. East rivals wrap up a three-game series at Shea Stadium. New York has taken the first two games by scores of 3-0 and 8-6, moving to 4-1 in its last five. The Mets are on further runs of 15-3 at home, 7-1 on Sunday and 10-1 with Pelfrey starting.
Florida has dropped four of its last six to drop into third pace in the N.L. East, a half-game behind New York. On the bright side, the Marlins are 5-0 in Johnson’s five starts this season and 7-2 in his last nine road starts.
New York has won eight of 11 meetings with Florida this season, but the Mets are 0-4 in Pelfrey’s last four starts against the Fish.
Pelfrey has been on a tear the last two months, going 8-1 with two no-decisions (both Mets wins), while posting a 3.15 ERA along the way. On Tuesday against San Diego, he yielded two runs on nine hits in 6 2/3 innings in a 6-5 victory, the Mets’ sixth straight home win behind Pelfrey.
The 24-year-old Johnson, whose first outing of the season came a month ago after his comeback from elbow surgery, has earned two straight wins. On Tuesday at Philadelphia, he threw six shutout innings of five-hit ball in an 8-2 rout.
Pelfrey is 6-4 with a 2.29 ERA in 12 home starts this season, but he’s 1-3 with an inflated 6.39 ERA in five career starts against Florida. Johnson is 1-0 with a 2.76 ERA in three road starts this year and 3-0 with a 1.52 ERA in four career appearances against New York.
In this rivalry, the over is on runs of 15-3-2 overall, 7-1-2 at Shea Stadium and 4-1 with Pelfrey facing Florida. For New York, the over streaks include 11-2-2 against right-handers and 7-0-2 with Pelfrey facing winning teams. Finally, the over is 29-11-5 in Floriday’s last 45 road games and 9-3 in Johnson’s last 12 starts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. METS and OVER
St. Louis (65-54) at Chicago Cubs (70-47)
The streaking Cubs send Ryan Dempster (12-5, 2.93 ERA) to the hill at Wrigley Field to wrap up a three-game set against the N.L. Central rival Cardinals and Chris Carpenter (0-0, 1.00).
The teams split the first two games, with Chicago winning 3-2 in 10 innings Friday and St. Louis cruising 12-3 Saturday. Chicago remains on a 10-3 overall tear and is on additional runs of 6-1 against winning teams, 10-3 in division play and 12-3 behind Dempster at home.
Despite yesterday’s win, the Cardinals have still dropped four of their last seven and they’re in the midst of further funks of 1-5 inside the division and 4-11 against winning teams. In addition, the Cubs have owned this rivalry lately, winning 16 of the last 21 clashes, including four of the last six at Wrigley.
Dempster, who at one point was 10-0 at home this year, has gone 0-2 with a no-decision (also a Cubs loss) in his last three outings at Wrigley. On Monday against Houston, he yielded two runs on five hits in five innings but departed after a lengthy rain delay and got no offensive support in a 2-0 loss.
Carpenter, the 2005 N.L. Cy Young winner, missed all of last season after having elbow surgery and is making just his third start since coming back July 30. On Tuesday against the Dodgers, he threw five shutout innings, allowing three hits and no walks but got a no-decision in a 6-4 Cardinals win. Like Dempster, Carpenter was forced from his last outing after a long rain delay.
Dempster is 10-2 with a 2.77 ERA in 14 home starts this year, but 4-5 with a 5.09 ERA in 34 career appearances (eight starts) against St. Louis. Carpenter has just one road start this season, getting a no-decision in a 7-2 win over Atlanta, and he’s 7-2 with a 3.07 ERA in 13 career starts against Chicago.
The under is 8-1 in Dempster’s last nine home starts and has cashed in four of the last six in this rivalry, but the over for St. Louis is on streaks of 10-3-1 overall, 9-1-1 on the highway and 11-1-1 facing righties on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO CUBS
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (67-50) at Chicago White Sox (64-51)
The White Sox give the ball to Gavin Floyd (11-6, 3.66 ERA) for the third game of a four-game set at U.S. Cellular Field against the Red Sox, who will counter with Clay Buchholz (2-7, 5.94). The teams have split the first two games, with Boston winning 6-2 on Saturday. The White Sox are 38-18 at home this year, and they are on runs of 21-10 against right-handed starters and 10-3 in Floyd’s last 13 starts.
Boston has won six of its last eight games, but the Red Sox are still on slides of 17-37 on the road against winning teams, 1-8 when Buchholz works on the road and 1-6 overall behind Buchholz.
This is the first series of the year between these two teams, but Boston is 8-1 in the last nine contests going back to 2007, including 5-1 in Chicago.
The White Sox are 3-0 in Floyd’s last three starts, although the right-hander did get roughed up a bit Tuesday against Detroit, allowing five runs on eight hits in four innings and getting a no-decision as the Sox scored four runs in the 14th inning to rally for a 10-8 home win. Chicago is 7-1 in Floyd’s last eight starts at U.S. Cellular.
Buchholz hasn’t gotten a win since May 2, and he’s 0-4 with a no-decision since returning from a minor-league stint July 11. On Monday at Kansas City, he allowed four runs on seven hits in six innings of a 4-3 loss, Boston’s sixth setback in Buchholz’s last seven trips to the hill.
Floyd is 7-2 with a 2.93 ERA in 12 home starts this season, and this will be 25-year-old’s first start against Boston – though he does have one relief appearance, giving up four runs on four hits in 3 2/3 innings of a 10-1 home loss last year. Buchholz, meanwhile, is 0-5 with a bloated 7.68 ERA in eight road starts this year, and this will be the 23-year-old’s first career appearance against Chicago.
The first two games in this series have stayed under the total, snapping “over” streaks of 7-0 overall in this rivalry and 6-0 in six meetings in Chicago. Still, the over for the White Sox is on runs of 16-6-1 overall, 4-0 with Floyd starting and 6-1-1 in Floyd’s last eight outings at U.S. Cellular. Finally, the over has cashed in four of Buchholz’s last five road starts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO WHITE SOX and OVER
WILD BILL
Washington-Brewers Over 8½ (5 units)
SF-LA Dodgers Under 7 (5 units)
Cubs-ST L Under 8½ to 10 runs (5 units)
Cleveland -135 (5 units)
Angels -140 (5 units)
Tampa -125 (5 units)
Pirates +210 (5 units)
JOHN RYAN
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play Over
Ai Simulator 3* graded play OVER Philadelphia/Pittsburgh ? AiS shows a 71% probability that 10 or more run swill be scored in this game. Pirates in a strong OVER position noting they are 22-11 OVER (+11.1 Units) in road games versus teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons; 14-5 OVER (+8.7 Units) in road games versus NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season. Philly bats will come alive today in the bright afternoon sunshine noting they are 13-4 OVER (+8.8 Units) when playing against a marginal losing team sporting a win percentage of 46% to 49% in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Take the OVER
DUNKEL
Washington at Milwaukee
The Nats have been handcuffed by C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets in the first two contests, but look to take advantage of a struggling Manny Parra, who is 1-3 with a 4.82 ERA over his last six outings. Washington is the underdog pick (+185) according to Dunkel, which has the Nationals favored straight up by 1. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+185). Here are all of today's games.
SUNDAY, AUGUST 10
Game 951-952: Florida at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Johnson) 16.300; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 15.237
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+145); Over
Game 953-954: Houston at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 14.936; Cincinnati (Harang) 13.981
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+105); Over
Game 955-956: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Davis) 15.459; Philadelphia (Moyer) 15.093
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-240); 10
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+220); Under
Game 957-958: Washington at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Lannan) 15.516; Milwaukee (Parra) 14.698
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+185); Over
Game 959-960: San Diego at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Young) 15.022; Colorado (Hernandez) 13.912
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 11
Vegas Line: San Diego (-115); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-115); Over
Game 961-962: LA Dodgers at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 15.876; San Francisco (Cain) 13.997
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2; 6
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-120); Under
Game 963-964: Atlanta at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hampton) 14.782; Arizona (Webb) 14.490
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Arizona (-245); 9
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+225); Over
Game 965-966: St. Louis at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 16.354; Cubs (Dempster) 15.489
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-155); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+145); N/A
Game 967-968: Oakland at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Smith) 13.047; Detroit (Robertson) 14.843
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2; 10
Vegas Line: Detroit (-150); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-150); Over
Game 969-970: Cleveland at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Lee) 14.695; Toronto (Richmond) 15.465
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+125); Under
Game 971-972: Texas at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Harrison) 14.464; Baltimore (Waters) 16.329
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 2; 10
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-145); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-145); Under
Game 973-974: Boston at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Buchholz) 16.455; White Sox (Floyd) 15.587
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-130); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+120); Over
Game 975-976: Minnesota at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Baker) 15.539; Kansas City (Meche) 14.312
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-115); Under
Game 977-978: NY Yankees at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pettitte) 15.489; LA Angels (Saunders) 17.166
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-135); Under
Game 979-980: Tampa Bay at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Jackson) 15.282; Seattle (Dickey) 16.360
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+120); Over
TOM STRYKER
Cleveland / Toronto
Play: Cleveland
It's going to be difficult to pass up Cleveland starter Cliff Lee at this cheap price.
A quick look at the history books shows that Lee has struggled against Toronto in his career posting a dismal 0-3 mark with a lofty 5.01 ERA in six meetings. That fact is noted. Thankfully, Cliff has been at his best on foreign soil and another solid performance is expected. As a guest this season, the former Arkansas Razorback has been nicked for only 27 earned runs and 87 hits in 90.2 innings of work. That adds up to a solid 9-2 record and a nifty 2.68 ERA! Overall, Lee has tossed 153.2 frames and carries a blistering 15-2 mark with a ridiculous 2.58 ERA!
Toronto will try and counter with rookie Scott Richmond who will be making the third start of his career. In his first two outings against Oakland and Tampa Bay (two teams that were struggling offensively at the time), Richmond was racked for six earned runs and 14 hits in 11.0 innings of work. That adds up to a lofty 4.91 ERA! That's not going to be good enough against Cleveland's hard-hitting lineup.
Quietly, the Indians have cashed 22 of their last 29 in this series and 10 of their last 13 on foreign soil with Lee on the mound. The experience on the mound is too juicy to pass up here. Take Cleveland.
Sportsbettingstats
St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
In yesterdays match up between these two long time rivals the Cardinals beat up on the Cubs beating them 12-3. The Cubs have the best record in the NL and lead the NL Central by 4 games over the Milwaukee Brewers. The Cardinals are in 3rd place in the NL Central 6 games back of the Cubbies. In their last 10 games the Cubs are 7-3 and the Cardinals are 5-5. For most of the year the Cardinals were, at least, leading the NL Wild Card race, but now are 2 games back of the Brewers for the last NL playoff spot. Taking the mound for the Cubs is Ryan Dempster (12-5 2.93 ERA), who has been solid for the Cubs all year and in his last outing gave up 2 earned runs in 5 innings in a loss. In yesterdays loss to the Cardinals the Cubs scored 3 runs on 8 hits and left 6 men on base. Taking the mound for the Cardinals is Chris Carpenter (0-0 1.00 ERA), who in his last outing went 5 innings giving up 0 earned runs in a no decision. In their crushing of the Cubs yesterday the Cardinals scored 12 runs on 16 hits and left 5 men on base.
Staff Pick: Yesterday's win may be the spark that the Cardinals need to make a push for the last playoff spot, as beating the 1st place Cubs and their Ace Carlos Zambrano is a step in the right direction. However, the Cubs have All Star Dempster on the mound, while Carpenter is looking for his first win since last September, as this game will only be his second start since coming off reconstructive elbow surgery. Dempser is in a bit of a slump, as he won his first 10 starts at Wrigley Field, but is 0-3 in his last 3 starts at the friendly confines. It is not completely his fault, as he has not had a lot of run support in those starts and his ERA over those starts is a respectable 3.57. Dempster is 2-4 with a 5.66 ERA in 8 starts lifetime versus the Cardinals. The Cubbies are rolling right now and the big battle in the division is for 2nd place and the Wild Card. Carpenter will have a tall task of beating a Cubs team that has scored the most runs on the NL (618). Look for Dempster to have a good start and for the Cubs to finally give him some run support at home. Carpenter is a solid pitcher and the Cardinals are glad to have him back, but he will not get his 1st win of the season tonight, as the Cubs will win and increase their lead over the Cardinals in the NL Central.
Cubs 9 Cardinals 4
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
PHILADELPHIA RL (-103) over Pittsburgh
The Phils are 6-1 in their last 7 at home vs the Pirates, with all 6 wins being by 2 runs or more. The Pirates are sending a career reliver to the mound to take on this solid Phillies offense. Jamie moyer gets the ball for the Phils and he has been solid this year, plus he is 1-0 with an 0.00 ERA in his lone career home start vs the Pirates. NY and Florida are breathing down the Phils necks, so look for them to come out swinging and get another easy win.
2 UNIT PLAY
Baltimore/ Texas Over 10.5
The Texas offense has to breakout of their slump sometime right? I say it's today, while the O's offense should get plenty of their own. So far I'm 0-1-1 picking the Over in this series. 3rd times a charm.
1 UNIT PLAY
DETROIT -143 over Oakland
Both teams come in struggling, but the A's are 5-19 in their last 24 road games and Greg Smith comes in with an 0-4 mark and a 6.74 ERA in his last 4 starts. Nate Robertson does have a 9.64 ERA in his last 3 starts, but an 0-0 record due to the fact that the Tigers have scored 9 rpg for him over that stretch. Nate may struggle a bit here, but I feel the offense will carry them again and get another win over the hapless A's.
Iron Horse
10* Favorite GOM
LA Angels
Priceless Picks
1 Unit on Astros/Reds UNDER 9.5
The Under is 10-2-1 in Harang's last 13 starts vs. National League Central, 10-3-1 in Harang's last 14 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5, and 9-4 in Harang's last 13 Sunday starts. The Under is 7-2-2 in Rodriguez's last 11 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5, 6-2-1 in Rodriguez's last 9 starts vs. National League Central, and 5-2 in Rodriguez's last 7 starts as an underdog. I like the Under here as we see a pitcher's duel between two quality hurlers.
Dennis Macklin
Cleveland Indians at Toronto Blue Jays
If you haven't already put a fork in the Jays, you might want to now. After giving Roy Halladay no help AGAIN in yesterday's 4-2 loss, the Jays are already looking to next year as Cito Gaston was announced to return in 2009. Toronto has the misfortune to catch Cliff Lee and his 15-2 and 2.58 resume here for the 50-64 Tribe. Don't see light hitting homies doing any damage here so we'll back the ASG starter in his Cy Young Award run.
Play on: Cleveland
VEGAS EXPERTS
Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox
We see the White Sox gaining the series advantage in this battle of American League contenders as Boston starter Clay Buchholz is 0-5 on the road this season with a 7.68 ERA. Overall, Boston has lost 10 of his 13 starts in 2008. Meanwhile, the White Sox Gavin Floyd is 7-2 with a 2.93 ERA at home. His team is a very strong 13-3 at home in day games this year, so that's who we're taking.
Play on: Chicago White Sox