Brian Gabrielle
Take Matt Kenseth (+700), 1/6th unit. This week, the Smokless Set heads back to Michigan, a track on which Kenseth has a great record. In 18 career starts here, he's got 12 top-10 finishes and eight top-fives, including the June race, when he finished third. In that event, however, I felt he had the day's best car, but was bumped out of win by fuel strategy. He's my favorite to take Sunday's race.
Take Jimmie Johnson (+600), 1/6th unit. Johnson has been red-hot, finishing inside the top seven in each of the past four events. He's never won at Michigan (only one of five non-road-course tracks where you can say that), but he was a solid sixth here in June, after finishing second in the Car of Tomorrow at Michigan's sister track, Fontana, earlier in the season.
Take Carl Edwards (+600), 1/6th unit. Roush Racing tends to be strongest at Michigan, so if Kenseth doesn't win, his teammate Edwards has a great chance. Edwards has won here once, in the spring of '07, and in the Car of Tomorrow back in June, he finished seventh here.
Gator
MLB Sunday: Play Against MLB (AL) underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.500 to 1.600 on the season, in August games. 42-7 SU the last five seasons (3-0 SU this year) 85.7%
PLAY: Los Angeles Angels -140
Scott Ferrall
BASEBALL LOCKS FOR SUNDAY
Cincy -110 over St.Louis
Pirates +180 over Mets--upset special as Karstens beats Santana
SF-145 over Atlanta
Colorado -145 over Washington
Texas +120 over Tampa
Oakland (even odds) over ChiSox
Minnesota -220 over Seattle
Toronto +190 over Boston--Marcum over Beckett (you've got to have nuts)
Baltimore +140 over Detroit
Just go with me on these and see what kind of damage I do daily on the moneyline
BASEBALL OVER-UNDERS FOR SUNDAY
TB-TEX UNDER 10 RUNS
CHISOX-OAK OVER 8.5 RUNS
SEATT-MINN OVER 9.5 RUNS
TOR-BOS UNDER 8.5 RUNS
BALT-DET OVER 11 RUNS
TRIBE-ANGELS UNDER 9 RUNS
KC-NY OVER 9 RUNS
MILW-LA UNDER 8 RUNS
PHILLY-SD OVER 7.5 RUNS
HOUS-ARIZ UNDER 8 RUNS
COLO-WASH OVER 8.5 RUNS
SF-ATL UNDER 8 RUNS
NY-PITT UNDER 8 RUNS
CARDS-REDS UNDER 9 RUNS
CUBS-MARLINS OVER 8.5 RUNS
SUNDAY'S PRE-SEASON NFL LOCKS
Cincinnati -3.5 to the Lions--The Game is in the Queen City and I liked the way the Bengals handled themselves against the Packers on the road--now they are at home against the crappy Lions, who always suck balls---OVER 36.5
New England +2 from the Bucaneers in Tampa--The Patriots aren't losing two straight to anybody ! They'll slowly start getting their act together this week after looking lousy against the Ravens in a loss last week in their pre-season opener--OVER 33.5
BASEBALL FREE B's FOR SUNDAY
Cleveland +125 over the Angels
Mussina -220 over the Royals in the Bronx
Dodgers and Kershaw -130 over the Brewers
Hamels and Phils -180 over the Padres
Ariz -105 over Houston--UNIT over Oswalt
Cubs -140 over the Marlins
Dwayne Bryant
Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Indians
Play: Los Angeles Angels -145
LA's Joe Saunders owns a 2.45 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and .285 OOBP in 11 road starts this season (8-3). Saunders also has an impressive 2.84 ERA in his last three starts, which included outings against the Yankees and Red Sox. The Angels have won all five of Saunders' starts since the All-Star break. The left-hander has been outstanding in three career starts against the Indians, going 2-0 with a 1.25 ERA.
Cleveland's Jeremy Sowers owns a subpar 4.63 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and .353 OOBP in six home starts this season. Sowers will be seeking his first home win in nearly two years. He is 0-4 with a 5.11 ERA in 12 starts at Progressive Field since beating Detroit on Aug. 25, 2006. Sowers has won just twice in his last 28 starts overall, posting a 6.07 ERA. Sowers has faced the Angels three times in his career, going 0-1 with a 4.74 ERA.
The Angels have won all seven of Saunders' day starts this season. In fact, LA is 23-9 in day games this season, as well as 23-9 vs. lefty starters. Cleveland is 13-18 vs. lefty starters and 14-22 in day games this season. The Angels (3.36 road ERA) also own a huge edge in the bullpen over the Indians (4.82 home ERA, 5.35 ERA overall). The Indians are 1-6 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series and 1-8 in Sowers' last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Take LA Angels
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Chicago Cubs
The Cubs and Marlins conclude a pivotal three-game series at Dolphin Stadium when Ryan Dempster takes on rookie Chris Volstad. Dempster has delivered the goods for the Cubbies this season, cashing in 17 of his 25 team starts. With Volstad's home ERA (5.63) more than four runs higher than his road EA (1.31) and Dempster in solid KW form with 5 walks and 22 strikeouts in his last three starts, look for the Cubs to capture the rubber match this afternoon.
Jimmy Moore
Arizona @ Houston
Pick:Houston
Take the Astros behind their strong righty Oswalt to take care of business at home against the Diamondbacks led by Randy Johnson.
Ross Benjamin
Milwaukee @ Dodgers
Pick:Under 8.0
The Milwaukee starter Jeff Suppan has seen his last 3 starts all coming on the road go under the total. In those 3 starts Suppan posted an excellent 2.05 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Suppan has seen 8 of his last 10 starts go under the total versus a team with a better than .500 record. The Brewers has seen only 2 of their last 14 road games go over the total. The Dodger starter Kershaw enters the game in stellar form off of his last 4 starts posting a 1.44 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. Kershaw has seen 5 of his 6 home starts this season go under the total and has posted a brilliant 1.97 ERA in 6 starts during the day. The Dodgers have seen 20 of their last 29 go under the total when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. Play under.
Black Widow Sports
1* on L.A. Angels -145
The Angels send Joe Saunders to the hill to pick up another win over the Indians Sunday. Saunders is 3-0 with a 1.25 ERA in 3 career starts against the Indians. Saunders pitched 8 innings of one-run ball against Cleveland in his last start against the Indians this year. Saunders has not allowed more than 4 hits in each of his 3 career starts against Cleveland. The lefty is 8-3 with a 2.45 ERA in road starts this year, proving he’s not afraid to go out and dominate in an opposing ballpark. Cleveland’s Jeremy Sowers is 2-13 (-10.6 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. Saunders is 11-1 (+9.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season. Take the Angels.
Info Plays
3* on Atlanta Braves +125
Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70%, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts. Tim Lincecum is hot, but he runs into an even hotter Braves’ team that is hitting the cover off the ball right now. The Braves have now scored 23 runs in their last 3 games overall after posting 11 on the Giants yesterday. Atlanta’s Charlie Morton is improving with a 3.31 ERA over his last 3 starts. Bet the Braves with a nice price at home.
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers +137
Milwaukee is showing some of their best value of the season Sunday against the Dodgers. The Brewers are now 16-5 in road games in the second half of the season this season after beating the Dodgers 4-3 last night. Milwaukee was terrible on the road at the beginning of the season, but now it appears the Brew Crew would rather play away from home considering they are winning better than 75% of their road games as of late. The Brewers are 14-2 vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 to 4.20 this season. They take the best pitchers in this league and absolutely embarrass ‘em with the great lineup Milwaukee has to offer. Young Clayton Kershaw is just the next victim waiting in line Sunday. Cash in with the Brewers as a nice underdog.
Jeff Scott Sports
LA Angels -143 over CLEVELAND
The Angels are 20-6 in Saunders' last 26 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance and 23-8 in their last 31 games vs. a left-handed starter, while the Indians are 1-8 in Sowers' last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record and 4-12 in their last 16 Sunday games. I had this play yesterday and will come right back with it today. The Angels are the best team in baseball right now and tey also have the best road record in baseball. LA is 39-22 on the road, scoring 4.6 rpg, while allowing just 3.9 rpg. This offense has been hot of late as they are averaging 6.8 rpg in their last 8 games, plus they score 4.6 rpg and allow 3.4 rpg when they face a lefty starter. Jeremy Sowers has not been good for the tribe this year, going 1-6 with a 6.28 ERA overall, including 0-1 with a4.63 ERA at home. His counterpart, Joe Saunders, has not had many problems this year as he is 14-5 with a 3.07 ERA overall, including a solid 8-3 mark with a 2.45 ERA on the road. Joe is also 2-0 with a 1.25 ERA in 3 career starts vs the Tribe. LA barely squeaked by with teh 4-3 win yesterday, but against Sowers their offense should have a better showing today, while Saunders will shut down this struggling tribe offense.
2 UNIT PLAY
Colorado -150 over WASHINGTON
The Rockies are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Washington, while the Nationals are 8-20 in their last 28 games vs. a right-handed starter and 4-12 in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The Nats offense has been even more pathetic than usual of late as they come in .220 and scoring just 2.6 rpg in their last 10 games. Washington doesn't hit righty starters that well as they are hitting just .233 and scoring just 3.5 rpg vs them on the year, plus they also hit .240 and score just 3.7 rpg in day games. The Rockies really hit lefties well as they are scoring 5.6 rpg and hitting .284 vs them on the year. Their offense does come in hot after putting 13 runs on the board last night and they are now averaging 5.6 rpg in their last 6 games. Aaron Cook comes in struggling with a 1-2 mark and a 6.87 ERA over his last 3 starts, but he is still 14-8 with a 3.82 ERA overall, including an 8-3 mark with a 3.63 ERA on the road. Odalis Perez has pitched well of late with a 2-0 mark and a 2.79 ERA in his last 3 starts, but overall he is 5-8 with a 4.12 ERA, and despite a solid 2.50 ERA at home he still has a 1-4 mark there. The Nats only score 2.9 rpg for him at home. The Nats can't score right now and behind a solid effort from Aaron Cook, the Rockies will hand Washington their 10th straight loss.
1 UNIT PLAY
NY Mets/ Pittsburgh Under 8
The Under is 7-3-2 in Santanas last 12 starts with 4 days of rest, while the Under is 5-1-1 in Pirates last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter. Jeff Karsten's has been super since his trade to the Pirates as he owns a 1.23 ERA s 3tarts thus far, with those 3 starts averaging just 3.7 rpg. All 3 of those starts went Under the total. Johan has been good this year with a solid 2.89 ERA overall, including a 2.66 ERA in his last 3 starts. Those last 3 starts have averaged 8 rpg. Johan also has a 2.13 ERA in 2 starts vs the Pirates. The Pirates are not scoring well of late as they are averaging just 2.9 rpg in their last 10 games. The Mets have been scoring better of late, Karstens is pitching too well right now and he has the advantage of Met hitters never seeing him before, so don't look for the Mets to get many off him. I say about 6 runs in this one.
Jimmy The Moose
Detroit Lions at Cincinnati Bengals
Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals
Both teams winning their 1st games last week but a more impressive win by the Bengals in Green Bay. We will see more the Bengals high powered offence in this one tonight that will give the Lions problems. Bengals have taken the cash 5 straight times over the Detroit, 3 straight in the preseason. Play on Cincinnati -.
Big Al McMordie
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Over
At 1:35pm our complimentary selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox 'over' the total. Not having made a move to acquire a top-flight starting pitcher at the trade deadline at the end of July, the Red Sox just picked up veteran starter Paul Byrd from the Cleveland Indians for a player to be named and/or cash. Byrd's best years are well behind him, but with Tim Wakefield recently placed on the DL and Clay Buchholz being totally unreliable, the Sox had to make a move. Byrd was to make his Boston debut on Friday, but that game was rained out so he pitched last night. And, although his team didn't win, Byrd put in a decent outing against one of the top starters in the league in Roy Halladay. That rainout means that this afternoon's game will feature Boston's current healthy ace and veteran righthander Josh Beckett against Toronto's 26-year-old righty Shaun Marcum. These two replace the original Sunday starters, Buchholz and AJ Burnett. Although Beckett is the recognized ace and has two World Series rings (one in each league), it's interesting to note that Marcum actually has the lower ERA of the two in 2008. Beckett is still a top starter, but there's no question that with his ERA near four runs this season, the former Florida Marlin has struggled more than in recent seasons and has definitely benefitted from the above-average run support of this potent Boston lineup. Beckett has struggled at Fenway Park this season, going 5-3 with a 5.03 ERA in nine starts. This will be Beckett's first start against the Blue Jays since April 6, when he gave up three hits and five runs in 4 2/3 innings, and I look for a high-scoring game at Fenway today. Take the 'over'.
Chicago Cubs at Florida Marlins
The Cubs and Marlins conclude a pivotal three-game series at Dolphin Stadium when Ryan Dempster takes on rookie Chris Volstad. Dempster has delivered the goods for the Cubbies this season, cashing in 17 of his 25 team starts. With Volstad's home ERA (5.63) more than four runs higher than his road EA (1.31) and Dempster in solid KW form with 5 walks and 22 strikeouts in his last three starts, look for the Cubs to capture the rubber match this afternoon.
Play on: Chicago Cubs
JB's COMPUTER PICKS
St. Louis Cardinals -110
Los Angeles Angels -150
Milwaukee Brewers +120
Mr A
Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astros
The hot Astros continue to have a tough time against the Diamondbacks. Houston has lost eight of last nine games versus Arizona and is just 3-7 in its last 10 at home against them.
Arizona's Randy Johnson is 2-1 with a 1.86 ERA in his last three starts, 6-1 with a 1.77 ERA In his last seven. The Diamondbacks are 6-0 in Johnson's last 6 starts versus the Astros.
Houston's Roy Oswalt is 2-0 with a 3.60 ERA in his last three starts. The Astros are 7-1 in Oswalt's last 8 starts versus the Diamondbacks.
Take Arizona for a sweep of the Astros this afternoon. The Diamondbacks are 4-0 in Johnson's last 4 road starts.
Arizona Diamondbacks -110