GINA
New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates
The New York Mets have won four of the last five meetings in Pittsburgh, including Saturday's 7-4 win against the Pirates. Let's go with the Mets with their ace Johan Santana on the hill again tonight against the struggling Pirates. The Mets have won sixth straight and their last five games on the road, while Pittsburgh has dropped their last six at PNC Park.
New York Mets -200
Football Jesus Early Baseball
Royals +220
Marlins +125
Dave Cokin
BAL Orioles and DET Tigers
Take DET Tigers
I rarely go with big favorites, even on my free releases. But I'll make the exception today as the Tigers should have a very good day against the Orioles. Garrett Olson gets the middle of the plate with too much frequency and I believe the Tigers can tee off on him here. With Zach Minor on a surprising roll for the hosts, Detroit is the choice.
JEFFERSONSPORTS
PHILLIES -170
Carlo Campanella
Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Over
Reason: Tampa Bay leads this series 3-1 this season and face teh Ranger's Padilla on the mound in Texas on Sunday. Texas has gone "Over" in 10 of 13 games this year when Padilla starts on the mound as a Dog between +100 and +150.
7* Play On OVER
Nostradamus
Angels -150
Florida +130
Cards/Cincy Over 9
White Sox -115
Tampa Bay -2
Cappers Access
Marlins
A's
Buccaneers
Bobby Maxwell
New England at TAMPA BAY -2
Tampa Bay has a hex on the Patriots in August, having beaten New England six straight times in the exhibition campaign.
New England lost to Baltiimore at home in the opening week, 16-15, upset as a 4 1/2-point favorite. The Patriots are just 3-4-1 ATS in their last eight August road games and 2-3-1 ATS as an exhibition underdog.
The Bucs beat the Dolphins 17-6 a week ago as a two-point underdog is 14-8 SU and 13-7-2 ATS in the last five-plus preseasons, and 4-1 SU and ATS dating back to last year. And since John Gruden took over for Tampa Bay this team has gone 9-3 ATS as a preseason favorite and 7-4-1 ATS at home.
Even with Jeff Garcia sitting out tonight for Tampa Bay we like the QB rotation for the Bucs with Brian Griese starting and giving way to Luke McCown for the second quarter. Then Chris Simms will play the entire second half and he plays his way back into shape after missing more than a season with injury. These are all guys that have started in this league and know how to play. No rookie mistakes should be made.
New England didn't play the magical duo of QB Tom Brady or WR Randy Moss in last week's loss but both should be in the lineup for a series or two tonight. But you know they won't be going full speed. Then Brady hands to ball to Matt Cassell, rookie Kevin O'Connell and Matt Gutierrez. Not exactly household names, any of them.
Tampa is 5-0 SU and ATS in preseason action against New England and scored a 13-10 win as 2 1/2-point favorites a year ago. Play the Bucs again in this one.
4♦ TAMPA BAY
John Fina
Milwaukee/Los Angeles Under 8
Put us down on the Milwaukee Brewers/Los Angeles Dodgers Under 8 for our Free MLB Selection on Sunday. Today we see a low-scoring game as the Milwaukee Brewers do battle with the Los Angeles Dodgers. One reason why we see a low-scoring game is because both these teams will be sending to the mound solid starting pitchers. This says it all... The Milwaukee Brewers Starting Pitcher (Jeff Suppan) has a 2.05 ERA in his last 3 starts, while the Los Angeles Dodgers Starting Pitcher (Clayton Kershaw) has a 1.89 ERA in his last 3 starts. As you can see, both these starting pitchers have been pitching very good as of late. To say the least, we see these teams playing a low-scoring game today! Take the Milwaukee Brewers/Los Angeles Dodgers Under 8!
DUNKEL
Chicago White Sox at Oakland
The A's look to take the rubber game of the series and build on their 23-14 record at home when the total is listed from 8 to 8 1/2. Oakland is the underdog pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the A's favored straight up by 1. Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+110). Here are all of today's games.
SUNDAY, AUGUST 17
Game 901-902: Chicago Cubs at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Dempster) 16.541; Florida (Volstad) 15.624
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-135); Under
Game 903-904: St. Louis at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lohse) 15.512; Cincinnati (Volquez) 14.598
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+100); Over
Game 905-906: NY Mets at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Santana) 15.219; Pittsburgh (Karstens) 13.448
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-200); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-200); Under
Game 907-908: San Francisco at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 14.578; Atlanta (Morton) 13.085
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-150); Over
Game 909-910: Colorado at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Cook) 13.960; Washington (Perez) 12.650
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Colorado (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-150); Over
Game 911-912: Arizona at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Johnson) 16.292; Houston (Oswalt) 14.582
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Houston (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+100); Over
Game 913-914: Philadelphia at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 14.507; San Diego (Baek) 15.603
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-185); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+175); Over
Game 915-916: Milwaukee at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Suppan) 17.223; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 16.018
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+130); Under
Game 917-918: Kansas City at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Bannister) 13.972; NY Yankees (Mussina) 14.952
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-250); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-250); Under
Game 919-920: LA Angels at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Saunders) 16.688; Cleveland (Sowers) 15.277
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-145); Over
Game 921-922: Baltimore at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Olson) 15.105; Detroit (Miner) 15.923
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-155); 11
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-155); Over
Game 923-924: Toronto at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Marcum) 15.536; Boston (Beckett) 16.220
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-210); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-210); Under
Game 925-926: Seattle at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Feierabend) 15.128; Minnesota (Perkins) 17.613
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-230); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-230); Over
Game 927-928: Chicago White Sox at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Vazquez) 14.438; Oakland (Gonzalez) 15.208
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+110); Under
Game 929-930: Tampa Bay at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Kazmir) 16.589; Texas (Nippert) 15.034
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
JEFF BONDS
HOUSTON ASTROS -110 (2 DIME) & +185 R/L (1DIME)
CINCINNATI REDS -110 (1 DIME)
WASHINGTON NATIONALS +135 (2 DIME)
KANSAS CITY / NYY OVER 8.5 (1 DIME)
PHILADELPHIA -185 (2 DIME)
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -102
The Cards have won 4 straight on the road and are 10-2 in their last 12 versus a team with a losing record. The Cardinals are 4-1 in Lohse's last 5 starts vs. the National League Central. The Reds are 3-13 in their last 16 home games, 0-8 in their last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter, and 0-5 in their last 5 Sunday games. On top of that, they are just 1-5 in Volquez's last 6 home starts. The Cards have taken 6 of the last 7 in this matchup and they'll keep adding to their domination of Cincy here.
SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL PRESEASON
Detroit (1-0, 0-0-1 ATS) at Cincinnati (1-0 SU and ATS)
The Lions look to start off the preseason 2-0 for the second straight year when they visit the Bengals.
Detroit held off the Giants 13-10 in its preseason opener nine days ago, pushing as a three-point home favorite. The Lions, who got outgained 310-298 last week, are 3-2 in August (1-3-1 ATS) since coach Rod Marinelli took over last year, but 0-2 on the road (1-1 ATS). In fact, Detroit is mired in preseason ATS slumps of 4-12-1 overall, 2-8 on the road and 3-9 as an underdog.
Cincinnati spotted Green Bay a 10-0 first-quarter lead Monday, then rallied for 17 second-quarter points en route to a 20-17 victory, cashing as a three-point road underdog. The Bengals gave up 383 total yards (271 passing), but they forced three turnovers. Despite the win over the Packers, Cincinnati is still only 11-10 SU and 12-9 ATS since Marvin Lewis took over as coach in 2003, but 7-3 at home (6-4 ATS).
After being on the field for only about 10 snaps in Week 1, the Lions’ starters on both sides of the ball are expected go a bit longer tonight, with Marinelli anticipating 18 to 22 snaps for his first-stringers. That includes top QB Jon Kitna, who will be followed by Dan Orlovsky and Drew Stanton.
It’s unknown how long the Bengals’ starters, including QB Carson Palmer, will be on the field tonight, as Lewis didn’t make his plans public. Last week, Palmer played into the second quarter and went 5 of 9 for 33 yards and a touchdown. If Lewis sticks to the same rotation as last week, Ryan Fitzpatrick will replace Palmer, followed by Jeff Rowe. Palmer’s brother, Jordan, may see mop-up action.
The Bengals traveled to Detroit in Week 1 of last year’s preseason and lost 27-26, but covered as a three-point underdog.
The over is 3-1 in Detroit’s last four preseason road games and 4-1 in Cincy’s last four overall in the summer.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
New England (0-1 SU and ATS) at Tampa Bay (1-0 SU and ATS)
The Buccaneers try to continue their preseason dominance of the Patriots, whom they’ve defeated six straight times in August, in a nationally televised clash at Raymond James Stadium.
With stars like Tom Brady and Randy Moss on the sidelines throughout, the Patriots dropped a 16-15 decision to Baltimore in Week 1, getting upset as a 4½-point home favorite. New England – which went 2-2 SU each of the previous three exhibition seasons – has been a bad bet on the road in August recently, going 3-5 SU and 3-4-1 ATS, including 2-3-1 ATS as an underdog. One positive for the Patriots: They’re 3-1 ATS in their last four preseason games following an outright loss.
Tampa Bay had no trouble with in-state rival Miami a week ago, throttling the Dolphins 17-6 as a two-point road underdog. The Bucs are now 14-8 SU and 13-7-2 ATS in the last five-plus preseasons, including 4-1 SU and ATS going back to last year. They’ve also been tremendous at home in August since coach Jon Gruden arrived (9-3 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) and they’re 9-3 ATS as a preseason chalk dating to 2005.
On the downside for the Bucs: They’ve lost three straight Week 2 preseason games, going 0-3 ATS.
Tampa Bay QB Jeff Garcia will sit out for the second straight week because of an injury, leaving the starting chores in the hands of veteran Brian Griese. Once Griese departs, Luke McCown, who started last week’s game, will take over for the rest of the first half, with Chris Simms playing the majority of the second half.
As usual, Patriots coach Bill Belichick was tight-lipped about playing time for tonight’s contest. However, Brady most likely will start under center but probably will play only a couple of series. From there, the three QBs battling to be Brady’s backup – Matt Cassell, rookie Kevin O’Connell and Matt Gutierrez – will divvy up the snaps.
These teams opened the 2007 preseason against each other, with the Buccaneers pulling out a 13-10 win, barely cashing as a 2½-point home favorite. Going back to 1999, Tampa is 5-0 SU and ATS in preseason action against New England.
The under is 4-2 in New England’s last six preseason road games (2-0 last year) and 3-1 in Tampa’s last four at home in August.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY and UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Chicago Cubs (75-48) at Florida (64-60)
The Marlins send impressive rookie pitcher Chris Volstad (4-2, 3.03 ERA) to the mound in the rubber match of a three-game series against the Cubs and Ryan Dempster (13-5, 2.92).
Chicago had its five-game overall and nine-game road winning streaks snapped in Saturday’s 2-1 loss to the Marlins. Despite that setback, the Cubs have still won eight of 10 and 15 of their last 19 to build a commanding lead in the N.L. Central. They’re on further streaks of 5-1 against the N.L. East, 4-0 on Sundays and 17-8 with Dempster on the hill.
While the Cubs have been surging, the Marlins have been floundering, losing four of their last six overall and five of their last seven at home. They’re also 1-4 in their last five against a right-handed starter and 2-5 in their last seven versus the N.L. Central. On the bright side, Florida is now 13-3 in the last 16 meetings with Chicago, including 7-1 in the last eight played in South Beach.
Dempster has been rock-solid for Chicago virtually all season, including recently as he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts (1.65 ERA) and seven of the last eight, with the Cubs going 5-3 during this stretch, including 3-0 on the road. However, for the season, the veteran right-hander is only 2-3 as a visitor despite a 3.17 ERA.
Dempster held the Marlins to a run on two hits and six walks in six innings back on July 25, but the Cubs lost 3-2 at home. It was Dempster’s first career start against Florida, but including 10 relief appearances, he’s 1-1 with a 2.40 ERA against the Fish.
Volstad got his fourth major-league win Tuesday, yielding three runs on five hits in five innings of a 4-3 home victory over St. Louis. The right-hander has allowed three earned runs or fewer in five of his six outings, and he’s surrendered just one home run in 38 2/3 innings. At home, though, he’s 1-2 with a beefy 5.62 ERA in three starts.
For the Cubs, the over is on streaks of 6-1 overall, 19-8 on the road, 4-0 on Sundays, 5-1 against the N.L. East, 8-2 against winning teams and 4-0 when Dempster works on the highway. Also, the over is 18-9 in the last 27 series meetings between these clubs and 8-3 in the last 11 in Florida. Conversely, the under is 7-2 in the Marlins’ last nine home games and 6-0 in Volstad’s first six big-league starts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO CUBS and OVER
Milwaukee (71-53) at L.A. Dodgers (63-60)
The streaking Dodgers hand the ball to 20-year-old rookie Clayton Kershaw (2-3, 4.56) as they wrap up a three-game series against the Brewers and Jeff Suppan (8-7, 4.56) at Dodger Stadium.
Milwaukee pulled out a 4-3, 10-inning victory on Saturday to improve to 9-2 in its last 11 games. The Brewers are also on runs of 7-2 against the N.L. West, 14-4 on the highway, 6-1 versus lefty starters, 8-2 on Sundays and 6-1 in Suppan’s last seven starts.
Los Angeles had a five-game winning streak snapped with last night’s defeat. However, the Dodgers are still on surges of 7-3 overall, 13-4 at home (7-1 in their last eight), 8-4 against the N.L. Central and 5-1 on Sundays. Also, L.A. is 42-21 in the last 63 meetings with Milwaukee (3-2 this year), including 21-9 against the Brew Crew in the past 30 battles at Dodger Stadium.
Kershaw has been brilliant over his last four starts, going 2-0 with a 1.44 ERA. He got a no-decision Tuesday against Philadelphia, giving up three runs in six frames, with the Dodgers prevailing, 4-3. The southpaw is 1-2 with a 3.08 ERA in seven home starts and 2-2 with a 1.97 ERA in six daytime outings.
Suppan has been lights out over his last three starts – all on the road – going 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA, including an impressive 5-2 win in San Diego on Monday as he yielded just two runs and four hits in eight innings. With his last three victories, Suppan is now 6-5 with a 4.79 ERA outside of Milwaukee.
Today marks Kershaw’s first career start against Milwaukee, but Suppan has faced the Dodgers nine times in the regular season, going 4-4 with a 4.02 ERA. Throw in a playoff start when he was with the Cardinals in 2004, and Suppan has allowed three earned runs or fewer in eight of his 10 outings against L.A.
The under is 9-3-2 in the Brewers’ last 14 games overall, 12-2-1 in their last 15 road tilts, 3-0 in Suppan’s last three starts overall and 10-4 in Suppan’s 14 road starts this year (4-0 last four). For Los Angeles, the under is on streaks of 10-5-1 overall, 20-9-1 at Dodger Stadium, 4-0 on Saturdays, 17-7 against the N.L. Central, 5-1-1 when Kershaw pitches at home and 5-0 in Kershaw’s five daytime starts.
ATS ADVANTAGE:L.A. DODGERS and UNDER
Karl Garrett
Detroit +3' at CINCINNATI
The G-Man's general rule of thumb in the preseason is to not lay too many points, as there are just too many variables to say for sure the favorite is not going to get back-doored.
That happens to be the case tonight, as Cincinnati looks to be laying a few too many in this evening's home opener against Detroit.
The Lions were a 13-10 winner against the Giants to open the preseason, and they have had a few extra days to prepare for this one, as they last played on Thursday, August 7th, while the Bengals just played on Monday night in their underdog win at Green Bay.
Have to believe the Bengals are feeling good about their comeback win at Lambeau, and while they may be able to edge the Lions in this one, I don't see them covering.
G-Man taking the points and Detroit in the NFL tonight.
1♦ DETROIT
Sports Gambling Hotline
Kansas City at NY YANKEES -250
Right now the New York Yankees couldn't hit their way out of a wet paper bag. That being the case, we are forced to play this Kansas City-New York game UNDER the posted total.
KC has played UNDER the total in 4 of their last 5 games, while the Yanks are now on a 7-3 UNDER clip, their last 3 games all staying LOW.
It will be Bannister against Mussina, and while Bannister has an over 7 road ERA this year, we think he will be able to keep the weak-hitting Yankees at bay in this one.
Mike Mussina continues to be stingy when on the mound, as he has allowed just 4 runs over his last 21 innings of work, and over his last 3 starts against the Royals, he has allowed just 5 runs in 22 innings of work.
These teams have now played 9 times this year, and 7 of the 9 have stayed UNDER the posted total.
This one will as well.
Play on the UNDER.
4♦ UNDER