Ben Burns
4* Cincinnati Reds
4* Diamondbacks/Astros Under 8.5
Seabass
50 SF
50 Col/WAS Under
50 AZ/HOU Under
Insider Play...100* Yanks on the run line
Bomber Play...300* Mariners/Twins Over
Sports Pro Unlimited
5 Bos -1.5 (POD)
5 Fla +135
5 Sea/Min Over
VEGAS RUNNER
CHC (-150) vs FLA 2* ML WAGER
LOS (-155) vs MIL 3* BEST BET of the WEEK
PIT 1.5 (+100) vs NYM 2* RUN-LINE WAGER
NASCAR for SUNDAY
1.) CARL EDWARDS +600 (1*)
2.) JIMMIE JOHNSON +450 (1*)
Fairway Jay
3* Cincinnati Bengals -4
Tom Freese
Toronto at Boston
Boston is 6-2-2 UNDER their 10 Sunday games and they are 12-4 UNDER with Josh Beckett vs. an opponent that allowed 2 or less runs in their last game. Beckett is 5-2 UNDER when he pitches with 5 days of rest. The Red Sox 5-0 UNDER the last 5 meetings in Boston vs. the Blue Jays. Toronto is 17-5-2 UNDER their last 24 games and they are 7-2-1 UNDER off a win. The Blue Jays are 29-11-1 UNDER their last 41 Sunday games and they are 6-2 UNDER on Sunday when Shaun Marcum pitches. PLAY UNDER
Nelly
Baltimore + over Detroit
Baltimore has scored 73 runs in the past ten games and the Orioles should not be overlooked with solid underdog value today. The Orioles own a .326 team average in that span and Detroit has failed to score more than five runs in any of the past six games. The Tigers have lost four of the last six and their offensive numbers against left-handers have fallen dramatically, batting just .233 over the past ten games. Zach Miner has done a respectable job for the Tigers but the bullpen is still a huge liability. Miner has just 40 strikeouts with 32 walks allowed this season so his control can be a problem and facing the hot bats for Baltimore will be a challenge. Garrett Olson lacks great overall numbers but he is 8-6 on the season and he has pitched well in day games. Olson has received strong run support this season and he should be able to keep the slumping Tigers in check. A hot offense as an underdog against an underachieving team sounds like a good formula for success.
Matt Fargo
Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays
After last night?s loss, this is a big one for the Rays. Tampa Bay is now 13-4 over its last 17 games. The pitching has been outstanding over this stretch as the staff has allowed three runs or fewer in 11 of those games including last night despite the loss. The offense is not far behind of late as it has plated five runs or more in 10 of its last 14 games, averaging 5.9 rpg over that span. Tampa Bay is now 6-2 over its last seven road games and 25-8 after scoring fewer than two runs last time out.
Texas meanwhile has dropped four of its last five and eight of its last 10 games and remains right at the .500 mark of the season. The Rangers pitching has been a problem all season long and that is certainly no change of late as they have allowed seven runs or more in seven of its their last eight games, giving up an average of 5.9 rpg over that stretch. The offense, which has been decent most of the year, has now scored just three runs in the last three games.
Scott Kazmir takes the hill and he is getting a great price at just under -150. He has struggled of late with four straight non-quality outings but three of those were due to lack of innings. He is facing a Texas team that he has gone against six times and is 3-0 with a 1.95 ERA and 1.03 with the Rays going 6-0 in those games. Texas sends Dustin Nippert to the hill for his first start since 2006. He has pitched out of the bullpen and has struggled with a 7.03 ERA and 2.02 WHIP in 14 games. The Rays win the series. Play Tampa Bay Rays 1.5 Units
Ben Burns
Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
Hamels hasn't gotten much run support recently. He's still one of the best southpaws in the National League though and the Phillies should provide him with some runs to work with this evening. That's because Baek has been brutal at normally "pitcher-friendly" Petco Park. Indeed, in eight starts here, he's gone 0-7 with an awful 6.75 ERA and 1.742 WHIP. Those kind of numbers won't get it done vs. Hamels. In this season's lone start against the Padres, Hamels allowed five hits and two runs through 7 1/3 innings, earning a 7-4 victory vs. Greg Maddux. He was even better in his last start here at Petco. That came last July and saw him allow a mere two hits and one run through seven complete innings. For the season, Hamels is 4-2 with a solid 3.60 ERA and 1.07 WHIP on the road. Look for him to "get back on track" as the Phillies rebound from last night's loss and close out the series with an important victory.
David Malinsky
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Over 4*
We had to wait the lineups out for this one, after Tony LaRussa had hinted earlier that he might be giving Albert Pujols a day off, but now that it is confirmed that the Cardinal star will start we can pull the trigger. The markets are doing what they often do in August - they are accepting the full-season statistics of Kyle Lohse and Edinson Volquez as Gospel, and that sets the bar far too low for this Total. We are being offered a “9” as a Win number, and that works on a warm afternoon in the Great American Ballpark.
Lohse checks in at 13-5/3.92, another in a series of Dave Duncan reclamation projects. But off of a 32-48/4.93 the previous four seasons combined, it is also a turnaround that is not going to last. You do not go through 692 innings at a level below league average and suddenly become a star, particularly when you lack the stuff to dominate hitters (only 88 strikeouts in 156 frames). So what are we seeing now? A guy that is wearing down. First note that for the full season it has been a 5.40 on the road, as opposed to 3.08 at home, which does not bode well for this park on a warm afternoon. Then note that he has worked to a 7.48 over his last four starts, and in his only two road outings since the All Star break lasted just 9.1 innings vs. the Marlins and Mets, getting tattooed for 11 runs on 17 hits, four of the latter leaving the park. He is clearly in a decline, and we believe that trend continues here.
As for Volquez, his 14-5/2.86 can still lay claim to Cy Young contention, but the young right-hander is dealing with his own fatigue at the same time that N.L. hitters have now had enough time to get proper scouting reports. Over his last nine starts he has worked to a 5.44 tune, and that does not count seven unearned runs in 49.2 innings in that span. They do count for us, of course, the result of toiling in front of a Cincinnati defense that now rates as the N.L.’s worst on our charts. In this span he has allowed six home runs, after only giving up four in his first 95 frames, and he may well get worse instead of turning things around. Yet the fact that his last start was a solid box score against Pittsburgh helps to shadow his true form, but in reality shutting down the Pirates means next to nothing these days.
LARRY NESS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros
PICK: Houston Astros
What a pitching matchup we have on Sunday. Randy Johnson goes for Arizona and Roy Oswalt takes the hill for the Astros. No one would argue that Oswalt has been on of the decade's best pitchers, entering this game with an impressive 122-62 mark (3.20 ERA), since his 14-3 (2.73) rookie season in 2001. However, few pitchers in MLB history can match Johnson's career, as the Big Unit enters this game 294-158 (3.26 ERA) and the owner of 4,737 career Ks, as well as five Cy Young awards (four straight in the NL from 1999-2002). It would have been easy to write off Johnson (and some did), after he lost six straight starts from June 3 through July 1, while posting a 7.94 ERA. After all, Johnson had spent most of the '07 season injured, making on 10 starts in going 4-3. However, the Big Unit is alive and well these days, having won six of his last seven starts, posting a 1.77 ERA and striking out 36 while walking just THREE, over 45.2 innings! As for Oswalt (10-8, 4.52 ERA), he's 3-0 in four starts since missing 2 1/2 weeks with a hip injury, as the Astros have won all four of those outings. Oswalt hasn't faced the D'backs since May of 2007, when he gave up six runs and 10 hits in six innings of an 8-4 loss. However, he had been 6-0 with a 1.98 ERA in seven career starts vs the Diamondbacks before losing that game and I'm going to back him here, as the Astros look to avoid the dreaded home sweep. Houston had won eight straight games (and 16 of 20) before the D'backs beat them 12-2 (Friday) and 11-5 (Saturday), while 'banging out 26 hits. I may be "spitting into the wind" here but the fact remains that the D'backs have domianted NL West foes in '08 (31-16, .660) but are just 33-43 (.434) against the rest of MLB. Take Houston.
LEE KOSTROSKI
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Under
At the beginning of the season Kyle Lohse and Edinson Volquez were pretty unlikely candidates to be among the top pitchers in the National League but both have delivered great results. Lohse is 13-5 on the season and although he has lost three of his last four starts he is still pitching well. The ‘under’ is 13-9 in Lohse starts this season and 9-3 in the last twelve meetings between these two teams.
The Reds are hitting just .241 over the past ten games and Cincinnati is just 3-13 in the last 16 home games as the offensive punch is now missing from the lineup. Cincinnati has failed to score more than five runs in eleven straight games and on the year the Reds are a solid ‘under’ team despite a home run happy home ballpark. Four of the last six meetings between these teams have played ‘under’ and this should be another low scoring game.
Edinson Volquez had a dominant performance in his last game as the Reds gave him a few extra days of rest following a few so-so outings. Volquez owns a 2.86 ERA on the season and he has allowed just ten home runs in 144 innings. Despite their struggles overall the Reds actually feature the third best bullpen ERA in the NL so Volquez will have excellent support late in the game. The ‘under’ has cashed in five of eight meetings this season and with two pitchers that have been on top of their game this season on the mound this should be another pitching duel.
STEPHEN NOVER
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays
This matchup is too tough to turn down from a value standpoint. Toronto starter Shaun Marcum is pitching well lately and Boston starter Josh Beckett has struggled at home this season. He hasn't been that effective historically versus Toronto either.
Marcum had a 9.82 ERA in his first three starts following an elbow injury. Since then, in his last two starts, he's 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA. Opponents are batting .218 against him during this span. Marcum said better location on his fastball is allowing him to mix his pitches more effectively.
Marcus is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in nine career appearances against the Red Sox.
Beckett has been hot, too. He's allowed only three earned runs during his last three starts. But he has a 5.03 ERA in nine starts at Fenway this season.
Beckett is 3-4 with a 4.92 ERA in nine career starts against the Blue Jays. He's had particular trouble with Vernon Wells, who has slugged five homers off him in 27 at bats.
The Red Sox are very tough to buck at home, where they've won 71 percent of their games this season. But Roy Halladay showed yesterday that strong pitching is the No. 1 trump card.
At this big of a price, Marcum is worth taking a shot on.
Root
Chairman- Dbacks
Millionaire- Bengals
Money Maker- White sox
Bob Akmens
7* Jays/Red Sox over 8.5
4* Rockies/Nationals under 8
4* Brewers/Dodgers under 8
4* Cincinnati Bengals -3.5
4* TB Buccaneers