Dave Malinsky
4* TORONTO/BOSTON Under
We have gone to the well with Josh Beckett Under in each of his last
two games, and while we only managed a split, the premise of catching
him at the right time has been dead on - he allowed only three runs
over 14.2 innings in a pair of dominating road outings, with more
strikeouts (15) than hits + walks combined (13). Now he returns home
to Fenway for the first time since a rare ugly outing in that Park
vs. the Angels three starts back, and that means a special chip on
his shoulder. It also means a chance to dominate a limited Toronto
offense.
In getting behind Beckett recently we noted that there has not been
anything wrong with this stuff at all. He went 20-7/3.27 LY, behind a
1.14 WHIP and 8.7 strikeouts-per-9. This season his overall has
fallen to 11-8/3.92, despite the fact that the WHIP is 1.18 and the
strikeouts-per-9 right at 8.7 again. The only issue has been an
increase in home runs, but he has not allowed one in either of those
last two starts, and only two in 35 innings since the All Star break.
Now he faces a team that is most unlikely to hit one (the Blue Jays
are dead last in the A.L. in that category), which means that his
roll has every chance to continue. And note that stepping down in
class is something that he has not had a chance to do often - of the
135 pitchers that have worked at least 80 innings so far, his
difficulty of batters faced is #11.
We get value because the markets see his full-season numbers more
than the current form, however, and the same can be said about Shaun
Marcum. Marcum had to work his way through some physical issues
earlier, which led to a stint on the DL, and he also struggled to
find his rhythm on his return. But in back-to-back solid wins over
Oakland and Detroit we have seen the Marcum that we are accustomed to
- he allowed only three runs on 11 hits over 13 innings of those
wins. Now he can continue to make up for lost time much like Beckett,
and with Roy Halladay?s Saturday gem leaving the entire Toronto
bullpen rested and ready, the latter stages are in good hands as well.
Not only are both of these starters under-valued, but each bullpen
brings the key arms fresh. That means we have outstanding value, and
we can also attribute that earlier Red Sox series vs. Texas this week
for more of that - beating up that cluster of Minor League pitching
talents does not indicate at all where this offense really is, and
when they had to finally step in class last night they failed
miserably.
6* CHICAGO over OAKLAND
We got behind Javier Vazquez in his last outing, and here was the
prelude to the play from that writeup - ?. . .and with a notion
that we are in the right place at the right time to get behind Javier
Vazquez it means time to get involved here. . .Meanwhile Vazquez is
not being treated well by the marketplace because he has been on a
1-5 slide over his last eight starts, but take a closer look. He has
pitched seven full innings in three of four starts since the All Star
break, and went six in the other, an easy road win over these Royals.
We do not see anything wrong in his stuff at all, and the timing is
right to start buying in behind him now for a late-season
correction.?
All Vazquez did was pitch perhaps his best game of the season,
shutting the Royals out over eight innings, and having twice as many
strikeouts (10) as hits allowed (5). But when we see the near pick?em
range for this game it shows that the markets are still far behind
the true level of the Chicago right-hander. His 9-10/4.50 makes him
appear to be the epitome of an average pitcher, which he is not. So
for a guy that has solid peripheral numbers, managing nearly a
strikeout per inning (151 in 156 frames), and also having more than
three times as many strikeouts as walks allowed, we will not hesitate
to get into play again. With the superiority of the White Sox
offense, we will also get involved in a major way.
Chicago will be facing a left-hander for the third straight game, and
in Gio Gonzalez we see a vulnerable young hurler. He is considered a
decent prospect because he has a live arm, but he lacks polish and
command, and is not ready for this level yet. He was an uninspiring
8-7/4.24 at AAA, with a high walk count, but the Athletics have
decided to give him a look anyway, even through his 23rd birthday is
not for a couple of more days. And while his 1-1/4.09 may appear that
he has held his own through the first two starts, that has not been
the case at all. First he opened against the Blue Jays, who have been
the A.L.?s weakest offense against left-handers, and were playing
without Vernon Wells. Then it was a home game against a Tampa Bay
team that has also been among the bottom in the league against
left-handers, and was playing without Carl Crawford and Evan
Longoria. So his base numbers have to be adjusted because of the
limited competition, and note that in holding the Rays to one run
over five innings he was more lucky than good - nine of the 23
batters that he faced reached based via a hit or a walk, and he had
an ugly ratio of seven fly-ball outs vs. only two on the ground. The
bottom line? There is not much there. Now he has to step way up in
class against a savvy veteran lineup that packs a lot of punch, and
it will not take long before he gets exposed.
The White Sox are well-set in all facets here. By getting a rare win
in this ballpark on Saturday they got a bit of that monkey off of
their backs, which takes the psychological issues away. There is also
a red-hot Bobby Jenks (1.83, 25 saves) ready for the latter stages,
with yesterday?s easy 9th inning (only nine pitches) coming after
three straight off days. Jenks has not been scored on in August,
allowing only two hits and not walking a single batter in six
appearances, and that creates more than the struggling Oakland
offense can overcome here, particularly with the White Sox figuring
to get plenty of production.
LT Profits
2* Royals/Yankees Under 8.5
2* Florida Marlins
2* Mariners/Twins Over 9
2* Detroit Lions +3.5
KBhoops
5 units San Diego +1.5 +107 **POD**
5 units Cleveland +1.5 -115
5 units Florida +1.5 -124
5 units LA Dodgers -150
KELSO
High Rollers Club
10 units - Angels
Best Bets Club
5 units - Arizona
4 units - Detroit
3 units - White Sox
NFL
5 units - Bucs
3 units - Bengals
Alex Smart
2* St Louis Cardinals
Andrew Powers Guaranteed Selections
BASEBALL POWER PLAY RUN LINE GAME OF THE YEAR
Minnesota w/Perkins -1.5
JB Sports
3* TB Buccaneers -2
The Hitman Guaranteed Selections
5000 LARGE BASEBALL INSIDERS MAJOR MOVE
LA Dodgers w/Kershaw -152
5000 LARGE DIAMOND TOTALS DOMINATOR
Seattle and Minnesota OVER 9.5
INDIAN COWBOY
Oakland +107 (POD)
It looks I'll have nothing in football, so we'll pan for some plays here in baseball, White sox are on the road here at Oakland where typically unders are the order of the day there, Vasquez pitched a brilliant game at home against the Royals in his last start and had a 0era, which of course being a the rainer on the parade, I think he likely has a let down here, after all, the white sox won 2-1 yesterday, so Oakland is not in a good mood given that and that fits in with the under that usually occurs in Oakland given their great starting pitching at home, Vasquez did face Oakland earlier this year and lost 2-3, he did pick up the loss despite pitching a complete game and gave up just 4 hits but 3 runs, the new kid Gonzalez going for Oakland today and Oakland has always had a great crop of young pitchers that they have brought up and that includes the likes of Hudson, Haren, Harden, H. Street and Duch etc...so just given that, I would take a look in the Gonzalez kid today and the white sox haven't faced him yet so the advantage goes to the pitcher for at least the first time through the lineup, do note that over 67% are on the small road favorite in the whitesox which typically spells trouble, Vasquez has not put together back to back quality starts in quite some time (over 1.5 months) and he is 3-6 with nearly a 5 era on the road as compared to 6-4 at home, lean on the A's here and the newbie as the small dog, I think Vegas has folks set up for a fall with the white sox and the A's are on a bounce-back with a new pitcher the whitesox have not seen yet not to mention Vasquez and his trouble attempting to pitch back to back quality starts.
Seabass
50 SF
50 Col/WAS Under
50 AZ/HOU UnderInsider Play...100* Yanks on the run line
Bomber Play...300* Mariners/Twins Over
10* Tampa Bay -2
ATS Lock
3 units New England +2.5
Tommy Rider
NEP 3.0 (-115) vs TAM
Everyone is making a big deal because Tom Brady isn't playing in this game. Even if he weren't injured, Brady would have only played two series tonight. Here is the thing about the Patriots, their defense is loaded across the board. They have been working in training camp on a lot of blitzes and being much more aggressive overall this year. Expect to see a lot of that tonight against the Bucs. And even though Brady isn't playing, look at who the Bucs have under center. I'm sorry but Brian Greise, Luke McCown and Chris Simms are in for a long night against what I think is the deepest, most talented defense in the NFL. I'm not going to kid you. Matt Cassell sucks. But the thing is, he's on his way out of New England. Matt Gutierrez is going to be the backup this year and he will see a lot of playing time tonight. Gutierrez has been very effective for the Pats the last two years in the preseason, including going 10-of-16 for 76 yards last week against Baltimore. Bill Belichick was not happy with the Patriots performance last week, so you can expect to see a much better effort tonight. I would advise buying the half point up to three just to be safe but I expect New England to take this one outright.
Larry Ness
Las Vegas Insider NFL-X
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2
Vegas Sports Experts
The VSE NFL Power Play for Sunday is:
10* Take Tampa Bay (-2) over New England (NFL Power Play)
8:00 PM EST
Tampa Bay
• 4-1 SU & ATS in pre-season vs. AFC East Opponents the last 3 years
• 4-1 SU & ATS in pre-season when the line is between +3 and -3
• 4-1 ATS in pre-season when the total posted is 35 points or less