Brian Gabrielle
Pepsi 500
Two Weeks Ago: We skipped last weekend's Bristol race, but two weeks ago, back in Michigan, we nailed Carl Edwards at a +600 wager. Since we didn't have a head-to-head selection, that gave us a weekly win of 0.67 units on 0.5 units wagered, a return of 134%. For the season, that gives us a profit of 6.69 units on 31.5 units wagered, a return of 21.2%. We've also given you winning weeks in 18 of 23 events. (Note that if you'd eschewed the relatively conservative betting pattern we outline below, and simply bet one unit per wager we recommend, last week you'd have won four units on three units wagered, a return of 133%; for the season, that would leave you with a profit of 16.73 units on 89 units wagered, a return of 18.8%. But there's clearly a bit more week-to-week risk associated with that strategy.)
Take Carl Edwards (+400), 1/6th unit. We're back at a big wide-open two-miler Sunday night for the Labor Day weekend race at Fontana, which is a very similar track to the Michigan course where the Smokeless Set ran just two weeks ago. Edwards won the first time around in Fontana, back in February, and plus won that Michigan race going away in mid-August. He deserves to be a pretty heavy favorite here.
Take Kyle Busch (+400), 1/6th unit. Then again, how can you not pick the No. 18 car? Busch has been good on every track type under the sun this season, and it's unlikely that he'll suddenly lay an egg a week after he and Edwards got into a heated post-race skirmish at Bristol. I expect to see both of NASCAR's leading drivers up near the front, duking it out for a win in this, one of the circuit's marathon events.
Take David Ragan (+3000), 1/6th unit. And if we're going to take two favorites with our first two picks, let's go out on a slender limb with the third, shall we? Now, granted, Mr. Ragan has never won a Sprint Cup race. But his best career finish, a third place, came two weeks ago at the Michigan track which is so much like Fontana. Roush rides extraordinarily well at both Fontana and Michigan, and Ragan is currently 13th in points, giving him a spectacular chance to make his first Chase for the Championship. Yeah, this is a long shot. But I give Ragan a chance to stick around for most of the afternoon and evening, and then shock the world by winning his first career Cup race.
CKO CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF
PRIORITY PICKS and PREFERENCES
11* FRESNO STATE over *Rutgers
Late Score Forecast:
FRESNO STATE 34 - *Rutgers 28
10* KENTUCKY over *Louisville
Late Score Forecast:
KENTUCKY 30 - Louisville 23
Matt Foust
Louisville -165
The Kentucky Wildcats and Louisville Cardinals renew their bitter rivalry on Sunday afternoon at Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium. Louisville Head Coach Steve Kragthorpe enters his second season as the leader of the Cardinals, while UK’s Rich Brooks is going into his sixth year as head coach.
Last year Louisville was a major disappointment. Prior to the season, they were nationally ranked, but they finished the year at 6-6 and did not play in a bowl game. This year figures to be different as the team has been under Kragthorpe for over a season now. The Cardinals are returning just nine starters, and just four from an offense that averaged 35.2 per game last year. However, they have a talented offensive line in place and a powerful running back in Brock Bolen. Quarterback Brian Brohm has moved on to the NFL, but stepping is a very highly touted Hunter Cantwell.
The Cardinal offense will be working against what should be an improved Kentucky defense. They return eight starters from a team that allowed 29.6 points per game and 191 yards per game on the ground. This defense will be good enough to keep UK in the game, but by the 3rd and 4th quarters, they will simply have been on the field to long to hold up. The Kentucky offense returns just four starters and they lost quarterback Andre’ Woodson. They do not have the talent coming in that Louisville does to replace their departing lettermen.
Things to consider: Louisville is 9-1 as a home favorite the last four seasons versus a non-conference opponent.
Take the CARDINALS ML -165.
Jimmy The Moose
Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Cleveland Indians
The Mariners have won 5 of their last 6 games but today they lose to the Indians. The Mariners are 4-8 in their last 12 vs. AL Central opponents. The Mariners are 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Silva take the mound this afternoon and the Mariners are 5-16 in his last 21 starts. Seattle has lost 7 of his last 9 road starts. The Indians are 16-6 in their last 22 games. Cleveland has won 8 of their last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter. Cleveland has won 2 of Jackson's 3 starts. Cleveland has the edge on the mound and won't lose a 3rd in a row. Play on the Cleveland Indians -.
Scott Ferrall
NCAA First Weekend FreeBees
Kentucky +4.5 from Louisville--why not have a tight game that ends with OT or a field goal
Colorado -11.5 to Colorado St--the Buffalo's are better, but this game is usually tight--here's to hoping it isn't this year
BASEBALL FREE B's FOR SUNDAY
BEST IN BOLD
Halladay EVEN ODDS over Pettitte--Jays do it to Yanks again
Detroit -200 with Galarraga over KC and Meche
CLEVELAND -160 over Seattle--Jackson over Silva
Zambrano -200 and Cubs over Moyer and the Phillies
Webb and the D'Backs -170 over LA and Lowe
Peavy -150 and the Padres over Francis and the Rockies
Ace-Ace
3-Unit Play. Colorado (-10.5) over Colorado State
We’re siding with the road chalk in this rivalry game out west. Dan Hawkins is in his third year at CU and his son, Cody, leads an offense that should be much stronger with outstanding freshman running back Darrell Scott leading the way. CSU coach Steve Fairchild is making his first start as a head coach at any level and simply doesn’t have the talent to keep up with a rugged Big 12 team.
Monday
3-Unit Play. Fresno State (+5) over Rutgers
Are you ready for some Monday afternoon football? The Bulldogs of Fresno State have a chance to be a BCS sleeper in the mold of Boise State and Hawaii over the last two years. Fresno returns 10 starters from an offense that finished No. 38 in the country last year. I think they can win this game outright and we’re getting good value on a team that started the season in the Top 25.
Marc Lawrence
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres
Prediction: San Diego Padres
The Padres close out their weekend series with the Rockies when Jake Peavy takes on Jeff Francis in San Diego. Peavy enters todays game knowing he is 14-5 in his career team starts at home during the month of August. He also owns a super-sharp 1.54 ERA at home this season, nearly three full runs better than his 4.51 ERA on the road. With that, we'll stay at home with Peavy and the Padres here today.
Big Al
New York Mets vs. Florida Marlins
Play: New York Mets
At 1:10pm our complimentary selection is on the New York Mets over the Florida Marlins. The Cinderella season of the Florida Marlins is pretty much coming to an end. With a month to go, the Marlins are behind in the NL East Division by six games, with two teams in front of them, both of which are loaded with talent. So, it's unlikely that both the Phillies and today's opponent, the Mets, will fold up and go away in September. But whatever the outcome, Florida has no doubt exceeded everyone's expectations as at the beginning of the season most people figured the Marlins would be down in the cellar with the Nationals. They are a pretty young team and if they can keep some of their core players together, the future may be bright. Pedro Martinez is definitely not a young player, and certainly not the dominating starter he used to be a few years ago, but he is determined to play a significant role for the Mets down the stretch. The team seems to rally behind him lately when he pitches, and he has not been wanting for run support. In his last four starts, the Mets have scored a total of 22 runs for Martinez although they have only won two of those games. But Martinez loves pitching during the day as in four afternoon starts this season he is 1-0 with an ERA of 2.57. The Marlins would love to win a game for lefthander Scott Olsen but that just doesn't seem to be in the cards right now. Since the All-Star break, the 24-year-old has had eight starts, with Florida winning the first of those on July 19, and then laying a goose egg so far since then. This will be a very tough spot for him to get his second post-break win. Take the Mets
Sports Gambling Hotline
Kentucky at LOUISVILLE
Even with both schools breaking in new signal-callers, we will play this rivalry game to sail OVER the posted price.
Last year, the teams combined for 74 points, while the total in this one is significantly lower than last year, we still feel this game will find its way OVER the posted total.
Louisville's defense is ALWAYS an achilles heel, and last year saw the Redbirds allow a whopping 25 touchdown passes, while picking off just 7 passes all season long!
It may take a while for the teams to get things rolling, but once they do, we like the points to start adding up.
We say play the OVER in this Bluegrass Battle royale!
2♦ OVER
Karl Garrett
Colorado vs. COLORADO STATE +11 at Denver
The G-Man realizes there is a reason the linesmakers, and the betting public believe there is a double-digit difference between these schools, but I just don't feel that is true.
New Colorado State head coach Steve Fairchild has been on Sonny Lubick's staff, and certainly knows a thing or two about this Rocky Mountain Rivalry, and I have a feeling he is not going to let his team get embarrassed in this opening game spot.
7 of the last 8 series meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less, and the last 4 have been decided by just 4 points or less!
The underdog in this series is on a 9-3 spread run, and the G-Man is just having a hard time believing the Buffaloes are going to blow this team out.
Let's make it a small play on the underdog Rams to to keep this one a lot closer than people expect.
Take the points!
2♦ COLORADO STATE
Bobby Maxwell
Colorado State +11½ vs. Colorado, at Denver
The Buffs are the more talented team in this series, but we're going to play Colorado State to hang tough as this rivalry always seems to always come down to the final possession.
This game has been decided by seven points or less in each of the last six years, including last year when Colorado got a 31-28 win in OT, covering as a 2 1/2-point favorite. The underdog was 5-0 ATS and 8-1 ATS before last year's game. Also leaning our favor is the fact Colorado State is 6-3 ATS in the last nine series clashes.
Colorado was inconsistent last year and finished 2-5 SU and ATS in the last seven games. They have sophomore QB Cody Hawkins under center but he had trouble finding his team when he threw the ball, tossing 19 TDs and 17 INTs.
Colorado State has got some experienced runners in the backfield, including Kyle Bell who led the Mountain West Conference in 2005 with 1,288 yards rushing. They've also got a big target at TE in Kory Sperry who had three TDs in two-plus games to start last season before injuring his ACL.
The Rams have first-year head coach Steve Fairchild on the sidelines and they will come out fired up for him in this one. The teams are playing at Invesco Field in Denver so there isn't a home-field advantage for either one.
But if it goes like always, this one will be close to the end. Grab the points and play Colorado State.
3♦ COLORADO STATE
SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Kentucky at Louisville
Louisville opens the season against archrival Kentucky in the annual battle for the Governor’s Cup in Papa John’s Cardinals Stadium in Louisville.
Kentucky (8-5, 6-5-1 ATS) started off last season with five straight wins (4-1 ATS), including a last-minute 40-34 upset victory over the Cardinals as a 4½-point home ‘dog in Week 3. However, after the hot start, the Wildcats dropped five of their next seven games both SU and ATS before beating Florida State 35-28 in the Music City Bowl, pushing as a seven-point chalk.
Louisville (6-6, 4-7 ATS) saw its season spiral downward after the loss to Kentucky, and the Cardinals missed out on a bowl game for the first time this decade.
The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four series clashes, and despite last year’s loss, Louisville is 7-2 SU (6-3 ATS) in the last nine. Finally, the straight-up winner is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head meetings.
Kentucky lost a slew of offensive weapons from last year’s explosive team that averaged 35 points and nearly 450 yards per game, including QB Andre Woodson, leading rusher Rafael Little and top wideouts Keenan Burton and Steve Johnson. Sophomore Mike Hartline was handed the starting QB job when senior Curtis Pulley was removed from the team at the start of preseason practice. Defense will be essential for Kentucky, as the Wildcats have five all-SEC candidates among seven returning starters, including DE Jeremy Jarmon, who was fourth in the SEC in sacks a season ago.
Louisville lost QB Brian Brohm, who led an offense that averaged 32 points and almost 500 yards per game in 2007, but the Cardinals have experience under center in Hunter Cantwell who has thrown for 1,419 yards with 10 TDs and seven INTs as a three-year backup. He has started four games in his career, going 3-1. Also, RB Brock Bolen is back after running for 456 yards and seven TDs last year.
Like Kentucky, Louisville had a shaky defense last season, allowing more than 31 points a game, but there are eight starters returning to that unit.
The under is 5-2 in the last seven Governor’s Cups.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LOUISVILLE
Colorado vs. Colorado State, at Denver
The Buffaloes and Rams converge on Invesco Field in Denver in this annual in-state rivalry, which has been decided by seven points or less each of the last six years.
Colorado got a 31-28 overtime victory in this showdown last season, covering as a 2½-point favorite, but otherwise the underdog has dominated this rivalry, cashing in five straight meetings and eight of the last 10 before last year’s contest. Finally, Colorado State is 6-3 ATS in the last nine clashes.
The Buffs (6-7 SU and ATS) were inconsistent last season under then second-year coach Dan Hawkins, struggling down the stretch in going 2-5 SU and ATS in the final seven, including a 30-24 loss to Alabama in the Independence Bowl. On the bright side last year, Colorado went 4-1 ATS as a favorite and 1-0 ATS as a double-digit chalk.
Hawkins’ son Cody started last season as a redshirt freshman and threw for 2,693 yards with 22 total TDs (19 passing). On the defensive side, Colorado has the Big 12’s leading tackler back in LB Jeff Smart, who made 162 stops a season ago.
For the Rams, first-year coach Steve Fairchild has some big shoes to fill, replacing legend Sonny Lubick, who was on the Colorado State sidelines for 15 years. However, Colorado State (3-9, 5-6 ATS in 2007) struggled in Lubick’s last four seasons, going just 17-30 after winning six conference crowns in a nine-year span that ended in 2002.
The Rams lost their first six games (1-5 ATS) of 2007, running their losing streak to 13 before getting a 48-23 win at UNLV in Week 7. They finished the year 4-1 ATS, including back-to-back outright wins over Georgia Southern (42-34 in a non-lined game) and Wyoming (36-28 as 3½-point favorites) to close out the Lubick era.
Colorado State has experience at RB in Kyle Bell, who led the Mountain West Conference in rushing in 2005 with 1,288 yards before missing a season with a knee injury. However, the Rams struggled on defense a season ago, allowing 30.8 points and 415.2 yards per game.
The over is 10-4 in the Rams’ last 14 against Big 12 opposition and 7-2-1 in their last 10 against non-conference foes. The over is also 9-3 in Colorado’s last 12 against Mountain West competition. Finally, the over is 9-3 in the last 12 clashes in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Philadelphia (74-62) at Chicago Cubs (85-51)
The Phillies will be looking for a split of this four-game set when they send veteran lefty Jamie Moyer (11-7, 3.81 ERA) to the hill opposite Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano (13-5, 3.53) at Wrigley Field.
Philadelphia lost the first two games of this series by scores of 6-4 and 3-2 before bouncing back with Saturday’s 5-2 victory. These squads have split six games this season, but the Cubs are tough to beat in Wrigley, going 50-17 in their last 67 in front of the faithful. Chicago is also on streaks of 18-6 against N.L. East teams, 19-7 in Sunday contests and 5-0 when Zambrano faces N.L. East competition.
Saturday’s victory aside, the Phillies are just 3-7 in their last 10 on the highway, but they’re 8-3 in Moyer’s last 11 Sunday affairs.
Moyer is 7-3 with a 2.79 ERA on the road and the Phillies have won nine of his 13 outings on the highway. He got hit hard on Tuesday when the Mets got him for six runs on nine hits in three innings, but Moyer’s offense bailed him out with an 8-7 win in 13 innings. The last time Moyer pitched on the road, he blanked the Padres for seven innings in a 1-0 victory.
For his career, Moyer has only seen the Cubs four times and the Phillies are 2-2. Back on April 13, he gave up four runs in five innings of a 6-5 loss.
Zambrano is 7-1 with a 2.96 ERA at Wrigley this season, and the Cubs are 10-4 when he pitches at home, including 6-1 in the last seven. They’ve won eight of his last 10 starts overall, including Tuesday’s 14-9 rout of the Pirates even though Zambrano lasted just 4 1/3 innings after surrendering six runs. Zambrano faced the Phillies back on April 11 and gave up five runs on nine hits in six innings of a 5-3 loss, and Chicago is 4-3 in his seven career starts against Philly.
The under is 11-4 in Moyer’s last 15 starts, 7-1 in his last eight on the road, and 10-1 in his last 11 on the highway against winning teams. Also, in this series, the under is on runs of 10-4-2 at Wrigley Field and 4-1 with Zambrano on the hill against Philadelphia.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Chicago White Sox (76-59) at Boston (79-56)
The Red Sox will try to make it a three-game sweep when they send veteran Tim Wakefield (8-8, 3.73 ERA) to the hill against Chicago’s Gavin Floyd (14-6, 3.70) at Fenway Park.
After blanking Chicago 8-0 on Friday, Boston scored an 8-2 win Saturday to move to 4-2 in the six series clashes with the White Sox this season. Going back further, Boston is 11-2 in the last 13 matchups with the White Sox, including 7-1 in the last eight at Fenway.
Boston is on hot streaks of 52-19 run at Fenway Park, 37-15 against A.L. Central teams and 44-13 at Fenway against teams with a losing road record. Meanwhile, Chicago is mired in slumps of 1-6 on the road against winning teams and 6-15 against the A.L. East.
Floyd is 2-0 with a 2.75 ERA in his last three starts and 7-1 in day games this season. The White Sox are 6-1 in his last seven outings overall, including Tuesday’s 8-3 win over the Orioles when Floyd yielded two runs on four hits in eight innings. In his lone start against Boston, Floyd gave up five runs on seven hits in 5 1/3 innings of a 6-5 win back on Aug. 10.
The Red Sox have won Wakefield’s last three starts, including Tuesday’s 7-3 win at the Yankees when the veteran knuckleballer allowed three runs in five innings. Wakefield has won three of his last four starts against the White Sox, including a 14-2 rout a year ago when he blanked them for seven innings, allowing just three hits.
Chicago is 9-1 in Floyd’s last 10 starts on four days of rest and 7-0 in his last seven when he starts the third game of a series. Meanwhile, Boston is 38-18 in Wakefield’s last 56 home starts and 4-1 in his last five against A.L. Central foes.
For the White Sox, the over is on streaks of 6-0-1 on Sundays, 17-5-2 when they face A.L. East competition, 7-0-1 behind Floyd overall and 8-1 when Floyd pitches Game 3 of a series. Also, the over is on runs of 13-4-1 when Wakefield pitches at Fenway, 7-2-1 when he faces A.L. Central teams and 5-1 when he pitches against Chicago.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and OVER
LT Profits
2* Kentucky vs Louisville UNDER 57.0
FairWay Jay
3* Colorado -10.5
3* Colorado vs Colorado State UNDER 57.0
Bob Akmens
4* Louisville -3.5