Alex Smart
3* Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Saskatchewan Roughriders OVER 49.5
KBHOOPS
3* Colorado
Tony Stevens
Colorado vs. Colorado State
Play:Colorado State +11
Buffaloes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Underdog is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
NEWSLETTER PLAYS
MARC LAWRENCE
5* BEST BET
LOUISVILLE over Kentucky by 17
When does a 6-6 season feel worse than kissing your sister? When you had a date with a Super Model and end up having to take sis to a Hannah Montana concert, that’s when! For a team that has National Title aspirations, last year’s 6-6 effort was bittersweet for coach Steve Kragthorpe and the Cardinals. The biggest problem was a defense that nose-dived nearly 100 YPG. To help shore up the black hole, they promptly hired well-respected Ron English as the new DC and Secondary Coach. One of the culprits that kept UL home for the holidays last season was Kentucky when the Wildcats banished the Cardinals in Lexington (as 5.5 point dogs). Beset with QB problems (Curtis Pulley tossed off the squad for disciplinary reasons) and heavy graduation losses, the Wildcats are the Kentucky Fried answer to this week’s BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW article on page 2. Look for the host in this series to improve to 5-0 ATS when Coach K opts to step on the pedal early and often in this statement-making game today.
Colorado over Colorado St by 17
Normally in rivalry games our fi rst inclination is to make a case for the avenging dog. However, word out of Fort Collins is the Rams will be a dog without much fi ght this campaign. First year boss Steve Fairchild replaces icon Sonny Lubick – minus the services of QB Caleb Hanie (graduated) who led the MWC in passing effi ciency last season.Aside from the SMART BOX angle at work our database reminds us that bowlers who fi nished the season with a losing record (6-7) due to a bowl loss are sharp plays in season-opening games. With Buffs’ head coach Dan Hawkins 43-16 ATS in straight-up wins, including 13-0 his last 13, we’ll roam with the Buffalo in Denver.
WINNING POINTS
Colorado over Colorado State by 14 (Sunday at Denver)
In a series in which each of the last four meetings have been decided by four points or less, this pointspread is making a statement about the directions of the programs.And we believe those directions enough to not call for the usual barnburner.
COLORADO 30-16.
Louisville* over Kentucky by 1 (Sunday)
Both new quarterbacks, Hunter Cantwell and Mike Hartline, inherit big shoes,but should be fine in time. For now we like Hartline’s supporting cast batter, and that puts the underdog Wildcats firmly in this hunt to the final possession.
LOUISVILLE 27-26.
GOLD SHEET
*Colorado 30 - Colorado State 13--Former Colorado State QB and assistant Steve Fairchild takes over for Sonny Lubick, who guided the Rams to uncharted heights during his 15 years as HC. But Lubick's program lost some steam the last two seasons, going 4-8 and then 3-9. It must be noted that this rivalry has been one of the more tightly contested in recent years, with 7 of the last 8 meetings decided by 7 points or fewer. In 2008, however, Colorado--in its third season under Dan Hawkins--appears to be on the rise. Hawkins has been landing some prime-time recruits (frosh RB Darrell Scott turned down Texas), and son soph QB Cody can be counted upon to improve. Meanwhile, the CSU QB situation is uproven, and the Ram RBs, while tough, lack speed. (at Denver, CO)
Kentucky 27 - LOUISVILLE 26--Previously high-flying L'ville took a serious tumble LY (worst mark since '97) under new HC Steve Kragthorpe. And since there are still major concerns on a revamped Card defense (33 ppg) that gave up a plethora of big plays year ago, prefer to "take" with ascending rival Kentucky, even without record-breaking QB Andre Woodson. After all, Wildcats new QB Hartline, who'll benefit from a talented trio of RBs (Allen, Dixon & Locke), can work play-action vs. yielding L'Ville 2ndary (25 TDP, just 7 ints.). And with UK mentor Brooks thrilled with his added depth and speed on the DL and in 2ndary, Card QB Cantwell won't have field day, especially with WRing corps (see Ticker) suffering some attrition. CABLE TV--ESPN
Pointwise
5-Colorado State (+11 1/2) over Colorado (in Denver) 24-32
Key Selections are graded 1 to 4, with 1 being the highest rating. "5" rated games are considered "best of the rest"
NC POWER PLAYS
COLORADO 35 COLORADO ST 18
This is the 9th meeting in Denver between these 2 rivals (series tied 4-4). The last 6 meetings
have been decided by a combined 25 pts (none by more than a TD). The dog has dropped 2
straight but was 9-1 ATS prior to that. PP calls for CU to win by 17 (line 11’) with a 463-287 yd
edge. Tough to go against the dog (especially with DD) in this close series, but this year may
be the exception.
HQ Report Newsletter
HQ UNDERDOG PLAY KENTUCKY (+4) over LOUISVILLE
Jim Feist
NYM Mets and FLA Marlins
Take Under
Florida is an excellent pitcher's park. Notice the Marlins average over 5 runs per game on the road, but 4 runs per game at home. A pair of decent pitchers go here. Pedro Martinez still has workable stuff, and in his last three starts he's fanned 18 in 19 innings with only 4 walks. Florida is on a 6-2-2 run under the total with an up and down offense. Florida starter Scott Olsen certainly loves this park: He has an ERA of 5.7 on the road, but 2.98 at home, where opponents hit just .238 off him. The last loss dropped the Marlins six games behind the Mets, so this is a key game. "We've got to play and win our games," said Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez. "There's no other way to put it. Whether the word is urgency, a must, or a need. Whatever you call it, we've got to win some games." Oddsmakers have made this total too high. Play the Mets/Marlins under the total.
Dave Cokin
PHI Phillies and CHC Cubs
Take PHI Phillies
The Cubs have been monsters all season, and they've done some serious damage to lefties. But I see some value on the Phillies side in this game. Carlos Zambrano has been ineffective in three of his last four starts, causing some to wonder if he's physically sound. He says he is, but the numbers are troubling. Aside from a rough go last outing, Jamie Moyer has been solid for the Phillies and I'm going to go for the upset here with the road team.
Jeff Benton
I know Florida is struggling, as is starting pitcher Scott Olsen – the Marlins have lost seven straight games behind Olsen, and they’re 0-3 in his three starts against New York this year. However, I trust Olsen a lot more than I trust the Mets bullpen – hell, I’d imagine the players themselves don’t trust the bullpen. Because of that, I’m willing to take some plus money back here, because there’s little doubt in my mind that New York’s bullpen, which blew another one last night, will be heavily involved in this game. That’s because Mets starter Pedro Martinez is nothing more than a six inning pitcher anymore – he’s lasted more than six innings just three times in 14 starts, and his max outing this year is seven innings (twice). His last time out at Philadelphia, Martinez was spotted a 7-0 lead, gave up five runs in five innings, departed with a 7-5 lead and then watched as New York’s bullpen imploded (the Mets lost 8-7 in extra innings). Including that outing, Martinez has a 6.75 ERA in his last two starts overall and a 6.46 ERA in nine outings on the road, and the Mets are 3-6 when he pitches away from home and 2-4 in his last six overall. Also, going back to 2005, the Mets have lost five of Martinez’s last six starts against the Marlins, including a 5-4 setback in Florida way back on April 1 (Pedro gave up four runs in 3 1/3 innings before leaving with an injury). Look for the Marlins’ bats to wake up in this game and take it to a future Hall-of-Famer and the shaky relief corps that’s behind him.
3♦ Florida Marlins
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Brewers/Pirates UNDER 7.5
The Under is 8-2-1 in the Brewers last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record and 10-3-3 in the Brewers last 16 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Under is 6-0 in the Pirates last 6 during game 3 of a series, 5-1 in the Pirates last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter, and 15-7-1 in the Pirates last 23 overall. Oddsmakers are begging for us to take the Over but we won't take the bait.
FAO Sports
We know that Colorado is 2-1 ATS and 3-0 SU the L3Y. We also know that the margin of victory for the Buffalos was 31-28 in 2005, 14-10 in 2006 and 31-28 in 2007. They have only outscored the Rams by an average of 3.33 PPG in the L3Y.We feel that 11.5 points is to much to give. Take the Colorado State Rams.
Greg Daraban
Toronto at New York Yankees
Final Game of the series . Yesterday Toronto won 7-6 The Yanks have dug themselves quite a hole. Today Halladay goes and he has been the best Blue Jay pitcher the last few seasons 16-9. Toronto wins again
Take Toronto
Ethan Law
1% COLORADO -11
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Toronto Blue Jays +100
The Blue Jays are an impressive 16-5 in Halladay's last 21 starts vs. the Yankees and even 9-4 in Halladay's last 13 road starts vs. the Yankees. We'll put our money behind one of the best pitcher's in baseball here. The Yankees are only 4-10 in their last 14 vs. a team with a winning record and just 1-5 in Pettitte's last 6 starts. The Blue Jays are 5-1 in Halladay's last 6 road starts and 75-36 in Halladay's last 111 starts overall. Take the Jays.
Steve Janus
Colorado vs. Colorado State
Play: Colorado State +11
Sunday in-state rivals collide with the Colorado State Rams hosting the Colorado Buffaloes. The Buffs own the all-time series record by a 58-19 record, including four of the last five meetings, but in recent years these games have been closer and closer. CSU won a disappointing 3 games last year, while Colorado mustered six wins and a trip to the Independenced Bowl where they would eventually lose to Alabama 24-30. Colorado head coach, Dan Hawkins, is optimistic about the season and he has good reason to be with the success he enjoyed last year. Colorado State should be happy with any improvement they are able to make.
Hawkins managed just two wins in his first year as Colorado's head coach in 2006, but improved to six wins last year and a bowl bid. The big question for the Buffaloes will be if they can continue to improve. That could be difficult for Colorado, who will be starting a lot of young players on offense. There is a solid core of offensive starters returning with 6, but at key skill positions like wide receiver and running back, Colorado is admittedly inexperienced. If there's one thing that could be learned from the 2007 season from the Buffaloes offense it is that Hawkin's offensive game plan can be effective if executed correctly. Last season one of the keys to COlorado's success was avoiding turning the ball over, which will again be a major factor in how they end up in 2008. This team is probably a year or two away from making any real noise in the Big 12. They have a brutal conference schedule to start their season, so their opening two, non-conference games are going to be crucial to this team's confidence.
Defensively, Colorado needs to make vast improvements. Last season saw a Buffaloes team that gave up more than 29 points per game and nearly 390 years of total offense per game, both numbers higher than what their offense was able to put out. On paper, 2008 does not look like it will be any improvement on 2007's numbers with some of their best, veteran players gone for various reasons. Their secondary has some depth and talent, so it should be a source of stregth for the D. Overall 8 of the 11 starters are back from last year. They are still a young team, but hopefully they can take some of their early experience and turn the defense into a strength for this team rather than it's biggest weekness.
Colorado State brings back 7 offensive starters for the 2008 season. They will be trying to improve on what was an average offensive season, at best, in 2007. The Rams managed 25 points per game on 380 yard of total offense, which would be considered pretty good in most conferences, but in the offense-heavy Mountain West Conference, those offensive numbers were not enough to keep this team comeptitive.
A big source of weakness for the Rams last season was the defense. This is a squad that gave up over 414 yards of total offense and 30 points per game last season. It's quite obvious that if these numbers don't improve dramatically, Colorado State is not going to be competitive yet again this year. Only 5 starters from last year's defense return, which doesn't have to be a bad thing, especially after what last year's team was able to accomplish, but 6 new starters will need to gel with the rest of the team quickly for 2008 to be any better than 2007.
Make no mistake, neither of these teams will be mistaken for a BCS contender. Honestly, neither will probably be any threat in their respective conferences. Colorado is the better team on paper here, but not by a huge margin. Rivalry games seem to bring out the best in players. We are recommending the Colorado State Rams +11 to defend their home turf and win or keep this game very close.
Prediction: Colorado State 31, Colorado 28
Alatex
Superplay Kentucky
FairWay Jay
Colorado