Vernon Croy
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Over 10.5
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and both of these starters have struggled this season and now they face off in a hitters ball park. Jamie Moyer (3-5, 7.42 ERA) has struggled at home with an ERA of 8.00 over 5 starts this season and his age is starting to show allowing 68 hits over just 47.3 total innings pitched this season. Moyer has given up 13 homeruns over just 9 starts this season and I look for the Nationals to hit him hard today. John Lannan (2-4, 4.11 ERA) has struggled on the road with an ERA of 6.48 while giving up 7 homeruns over 5 road starts and I look for the Phillies to hit him hard today. The O/U is 4-1 for the Phillies in Moyers last 5 starts as a favorite and 6-2 in Moyers last 8 starts overall. The O/U is 5-1 in the last 6 games between these two teams and I look for this game to be a slugfest going well over the posted total along with the Nationals coming out on top.
LARRY NESS
Houston Astros @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: Pittsburgh Pirates
Mike Hampton beat the Pittsburgh Pirates 4-1 on April 15, allowing just four hits while striking out eight in six innings. That's nothing new, as the veteran lefty has won seven straight starts vs the Pirates, posting a 1.36 ERA during that span. He is 11-3 with a 2.57 ERA in 17 starts and six relief appearances all-time against Pittsburgh, with his teams going 12-5 in those starts. That's the good news. The bad news is that while Hampton was sharp in that April 15th start vs Pittsburgh, his 2009 season has not been anything like that. He's 2-4 with a 5.62 ERA in nine starts, as the Astros have gone 2-7 in those starts. Everyone knows his story. He went 73-41 with a 3.35 ERA from 1996-00, going 22-4 with a 2.90 ERA for the Astros in 1999 and 15-10 with a 3.14 ERA for the Mets in 2000 (was NLCS MVP that season). He then suffered through two tough years at Colorado (5.75 ERA), after signing that huge free agent deal. He left the Rockies for Atlanta and had two decent seasons but then various and numerous injuries sidelined him for the better parts of the next four years. He has been unreliable at best in 2009 and let's also not forget that the Astros had lost seven straight (while averaging 3.0 RPG) before they beat the Pirates 6-1 on Friday. Saturday's 7-4 loss makes it EIGHT in the last nine games. Paul Maholm of Pittsburgh has been improving over the last few seasons, getting to 9-9 with a 3.71 ERA in 2008. He showed to be a solid home pitcher last year, as the Pirates went 11-5 in his starts, with Maholm posting a 3.36 ERA. He's 3-1 with a 4.11 ERA in 2009, as the team is 6-4 in his starts. The Pirates are 4-2 in his road starts (despite a 5.82 ERA), while going only 2-2 in his four home starts, where Maholm's ERA is 1.98. Maholm is 5-3 with a 4.91 ERA in nine career starts vs Houston (Pirates are 6-3) but it shouldn't go unmentioned that he haswon his last four home starts vs the Astros, posting a 2.08 ERA. Take Pittsburgh.
Free Selection from Totals4U
Sunday's free selection:
Atlanta/Arizona under 9 1/2
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
270 - 176 run 60 % winning picks
15-6 run Sun: KC Royals
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EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION
Game: Florida Marlins @ New York Mets
(952) New York Mets -$140
New York Mets starting pitcher John Maine is
starting to pitch like he did prior to his shoulder
problems last season. Maine had a very good
outing in his last start and he is 4-1 lifetime
against the Marlins with a 2.49 ERA. Florida
starter Chris Volstad has had two straight
solid starts, but he is very inconsistent and is
due for a bad outing. Lay the juice with the Mets.
2009 Free Selections Record 80-67 (54.4%)
8)
DAVID MALINSKY
Oakland Athletics @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Texas Rangers
After getting a couple of easy wins in this series the past two nights we are absolutely in play again, and you know where it starts – the oddsmakers simply do not see the true gap between these teams. The 11 games of separation in the standings, and home/away splits of 18-8 vs. 7-16 do not lie. We can start with the offense, where the numbers are growing most pronounced – Texas leads by 67 runs, a staggering 83-34 in home runs, 101-73 in doubles and 10-3 in triples. But that is only the starting point. In terms of speed it is 40-24 in stolen bases, and we have the #3 defense against one that is ranked 28th overall, and dead last in the American League. Kevin Millwood and a fresh bullpen can take care of the rest.
We have written about Millwood several times already, and how an off-season workout regimen with Nolan Ryan have shaved 15 pounds from his body weight, with a corresponding big chunk of his allowance from the mound. He has allowed fewer hits than innings pitched, while also walking only 21 batters in 72 frames, and is showing a confidence in working the strike zone because of that rejuvenated defense behind him. And with the bullpen also stepping up in a major way, with Frank Francisco still not having allowed a run all season while going perfect in save opportunities, the latter stages are in good hands as well.
Dallas Braden is another of those left-handers that can work the strike zone but just is not going to dominate hitters, which means that the more the league sees of him the tougher his sledding will be. A 3-2/2.10 April has already turned into a 1-3/5.23 May, and now the Rangers get a second-look after one of the more misleading ERA readings of the season. Braden got credit for five shutout innings from this mound earlier, but he was playing with fire the entire time – he needed an alarming 111 pitches to merely get that far, with five hits and four walks allowed, but the dice came up just right for him to not be scored upon. Of course it also helped that Josh Hamilton did not play that day. Now Hamilton is back and the Rangers can turn that previous production into runs, having the bonus of seeing a left-hander for the third time already in this series, with a chance to break it wide open in the latter stages against a dishevelled bullpen after the A’s were only able to get a combined nine innings from Edgar Gonzalez and Brett Anderson in the last two games.
Yankee Capper
Pittsburgh Pirates -150
Toronto Blue Jays +115
Tampa Bay Rays -155
San Diego/Colorado Over 10
Wunderdog
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians +1½
The Yankees are just 22-27 this season to the run line. Dating back to last season they are 13-28 to the run line after 5+ straight road games. Cleveland is 26-16 at home to the run line over that same span. And, Carl Pavano is 11-2 at home against the run line when facing teams that average 5.2+ runs per game. He is also 52-37 over the past decade vs. teams with winning records Cleveland has a good shot at winning this game outright and I like their chances quite a bit with the extra run the run line gives us here.
INDIANCOWBOY
Take Over 9.5 between Atlanta Braves @ Arizona Diamondbacks
I've always said, the edge always goes to the hitter or the team who got spanked by the other in the game before. For example, we rode both the Angels pitcher and the Mariners pitchers yesterday because in the previous game they were roughed up by both teams for 11 runs. Consequently, the second time these two teams met, the total run output was 7 runs (4-3) game and even that needed 3 runs in the top of the 9th and another run in extras as the game still went under. That is the same philosophy we take today as Atlanta is likely to have some success against Scherzer today. Bear in mind the Braves were roughed up by Scherzer last time out as he went 6 innings in Atlanta, and gave up just 4 hits and 0 runs. He pitched briliantly. Having said that, I believe the Braves get to him early this time out as they have now had a chance to see his stuff and his honeymoon period will come to an end as teams will see him for the second and third time. Medlen is a young arm the Braves have that they are hoping will give them solid work due to several injuries on their pitching staff. The young 23 year old has been struggling averaging around a hit an inning, and he will likely get hit for his fair share of runs as well. The Over is 7-1 when the total is set at this range for the Diamondbacks and the Over is 4-1 with Campos' Sunday games behind the plate.