DAVE COKIN
MILWAUKEE BREWERS / DETROIT TIGERS
Take DETROIT TIGERS
Yovani Gallardo is tough as nails, and he's not a guy anyone can feel comfortable trying to beat. But Gallardo has been putting up pretty high per inning pitch counts lately as he's had a few control issues. Justin Verlander had a poor outing last start, but he's been mostly sensational for the Tigers. Detroit is having a strong series against the Brewers, and I'll have to back the Tigers today.
John Ryan
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Washington as the host Toronto slated to start at 1:35 EST. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has posted a 77-51 mark making 42.8 units since 2003. Play on home dogs with a money line of +100 or higher and is a cold hitting team batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games, starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing. Toronto is just not in a good spot noting that they are 84-92 (-42.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a terrible team sporting a win percentage of <=38%) since 1997; 9-19 (-12.1 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. Washington is a stout 45-27 (+21.5 Units) against the money line in home games against AL East opponents since 1997. Martis has been one of the few bright spots for the Nats this season. He is 5-1 on the season and has posted a 2.00 ERA and 1.167 WHIP over his last 3 starts. He has control issues given the tremendous movement on his pitches, but he has allowed just 10 hits in his last 18 innings. He has allowed 11 BB during that same span. This reflects that when he gets ahead in the count he is getting outs on his pitch and many of those pitches are just outside the strike zone making it very difficult to get solid contact. Take the Nats.
DUNKEL
LA Dodgers at LA Angels
The Angels are 8-2 in their last 10 interleague games versus teams with a winning record and look to take advantage of a Dodger club (45-24 SU) that is just 1-4 in Clayton Kershaw's last 5 interleague starts. The Angels are the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Angels favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-120)
Game 901-902: Pittsburgh at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Maholm) 16.139; Colorado (De La Rosa) 16.089
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-145); 10
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+135); Over
Game 903-904: Milwaukee at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.550; Detroit (Verlander) 14.541
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+120); Over
Game 905-906: Chicago White Sox at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Buehrle) 14.114; Cincinnati (Harang) 14.591
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-130); Over
Game 907-908: Tampa Bay at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Niemann) 16.299; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 15.078
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 8
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+105); Under
Game 909-910: Atlanta at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Jurrjens) 15.572; Boston (Wakefield) 15.278
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+130); Under
Game 911-912: Toronto at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Romero) 15.158; Washington (Martis) 16.381
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+110); Under
Game 913-914: Baltimore at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Guthrie) 14.772; Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.457
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-185); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-185); Under
Game 915-916: Houston at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 15.082; Minnesota (Perkins) 15.959
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+120); Over
Game 917-918: St. Louis at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 13.877; Kansas City (Meche) 13.922
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+105); Under
Game 919-920: Cleveland at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Sowers) 14.682; Cubs (Wells) 16.285
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-165); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-165); N/A
Game 921-922: Texas at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Millwood) 15.645; San Francisco (Zito) 14.636
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Texas (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-150); Under
Game 923-924: Oakland at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Braden) 14.148; San Diego (Correia) 14.368
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+120); Over
Game 925-926: Arizona at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Davis) 14.659; Seattle (Hernandez) 15.533
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-185); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-185); Under
Game 927-928: NY Yankees at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.279; Florida (Volstad) 16.369
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+170); Over
Game 929-930: LA Dodgers at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.889; LA Angels (Lackey) 17.131
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-120); Over
WNBA
Seattle at Phoenix
The Storm take on the Mercury (5-1 SU) look to build on their 10-3 ATS record in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. Seattle is the pick (+1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Storm favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+1 1/2)
Game 601-602: San Antonio at Connecticut
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 106.991; Connecticut 114.694
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 7 1/2; 137 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Connecticut by 10; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+10); Under
Game 603-604: New York at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: New York 108.380; Atlanta 113.925
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 5 1/2; 150
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 4 1/2; 148
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4 1/2); Over
Game 605-606: Detroit at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 114.402; Indiana 114.411
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 135
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 5 1/2; 139 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+5 1/2); Under
Game 607-608: Seattle at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 115.709; Phoenix 113.324
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 2 1/2; 176
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 1 1/2; 170
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+1 1/2); Over
Game 609-610: Sacramento at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 113.244; Los Angeles 113.690
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 138 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 4 1/2; 145 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+4 1/2); Under
Vernon Croy
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and since the Nationals faced a lefty starter last night this will benefit them facing lefty starter Ricky Romero (3-3, 3.73). Shairon Martis (5-1, 4.76 ERA) has pitched solid for the Nationals with an ERA of just 2.00 over his last 3 starts and the Nationals are 4-1 in Martis' last 5 starts with 4 days rest. The Nationals are 5-1 in their last 6 interleague home games against a team with a winning record and the Jays are 0-5 in their last 5 interleague games as a favorite. The Jays are just 8-23 in their last 31 interleague road games against a team with a losing record and they are just 1-4 in their last 5 games after a loss. The Nationals bullpen has looked solid in this series while the Blue Jays bullpen needs and could be in trouble if Romero struggles early on. Take the Washington Nationals for Sunday afternoon.
GINA
Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have taken nine of the last 12 meetings against the Braves and will send knuckleballer Tim Wakefield to the hill. The right-hander has had problems in the past with the Braves, but hasn’t met Atlanta since 2005. Wakefield (9-3, 4.39 ERA) is 3-0 with a 3.86 ERA in his last three starts and the Red Sox have won ten of Wakefield’s last 12 starts. Atlanta counters with Jair Jurrjens (5-5, 2.89). The right-hander is 0-3 with a 4.20 ERA in his last three starts. Jurrjens has never faced the Red Sox. Go with Boston at home with veteran Tim Wakefield at the helm. The Red Sox are 11-2 in Wakefield’s last 13 interleague starts.
Boston Red Sox -135
MTi Sports
Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Washington Nationals
Trivia Question: Since the start of the 2005 season, which is the most profitable team in the league in the third game of a three-game series when they won the first two?
Answer: The Washington Nationals. The Nats are 23-10 in this spot since 2005, despite being a significant underdog on the average.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
FLA / NYY Under 8.5
Ace CC Sabathia (6-4, 3.67 ERA) looks to continue his success against NL foes when he takes on the Marlins (34-36) - the only team in the majors he has never faced. Sabathia went 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA in 17 starts with Milwaukee last year, and is 15-2 with a 1.95 ERA in his last 23 outings versus NL clubs. The left-hander improved to 11-3 with a 3.62 ERA in his last 23 interleague starts Tuesday by allowing three runs over 7 2-3 innings in a 5-3 win over Washington. The Yankees will go up against a starter they have never faced for the sixth straight game Sunday when they get their first look at Chris Volstad (4-7, 4.75), who has posted a 7.66 ERA in losing four straight starts; however it's interesting to note that the Marlins have seen the total go under the posted number in 21 of 38 games when playing against a team with a winning record. Taking all of this into account, I recommend a play on the UNDER!
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
281 - 184 run 60 % 28-14 run here
SUN Toronto Blue Jays
================================
EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Kansas City Royals
(918) Kansas City Royals -$105
(Listing Meche and Wainwright)
Royals starting pitcher Gil Meche is pitching very
well. Meche has not allowed more than two earned
runs in six straight starts and is starting to look like
the ace of the Kansas City staff again. Meche has
also dominated interleague play, posting a
14-4 record. His .778 winning percentage against
the National League tops all active pitchers with at
least 20 starts and I look for him to pick up another
win here against the Cards. Play on the Royals.
2009 Free Selections Record 88-78 (53.0%)
8)
Michael Cannon
Atlanta at BOSTON -125
That’s three straight free winners after the Marlins get it done over the Yankees yesterday!
Take the Red Sox for the home win over the Braves.
I had the Red Sox on the run line as my best bet yesterday for my paying clients and they delivered the 3-0 win. I fully expect them to plate more runs than that today, but even if they don’t they should still get the win behind Tim Wakefield.
Wakefield has that knuckleball dancing this year to the tune of a 9-3 record. He’s 3-0 with a 3.86 ERA in his last three starts.
Atlanta will counter with Jair Jurrjens, who is 5-5 on the year with a 2.89 ERA. But the right-hander has lost his last three starts and has a 4.20 ERA over that span.
Take the Red Sox as they grab the home win.
2♦ BOSTON
Drew Gordon
Texas at SAN FRANCISCO +125
Now on a 19-6 roll with the plays I'm giving away, including the Rays over the Mets 3-1 last night (Part of my 3-0 Sweep). For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Texas/San Francisco match-up.
I've had my fair share of negative things to say about Barry Zito, however, I know a good spot when I see one, and this is a very good spot for the soft-throwing lefty. Yes, he's coming off an awful effort against a red-hot Angels offense in his last one, but rest-assured, if ever he's going to bounce back, it'll be today at home against a familiar foe. Note, Zito is 17-5 with a 3.76 ERA in 30 career starts vs the Rangers, although he's never faced them as a member of the Giants.
Herein lies the problem for the Rangers, as despite starting their ace, Kevin Millwood, they are having real issues against lefties of late, especially on the road, where they average just 4.0 run per game against them. Texas is batting just .169 against southpaws over their last 10 games, and it won't get any easier against Zito at AT&T Park, where he's been considerably better this season.
As mentioned, Kevin Millwood gets the nod in this one, and there's no doubt he's been red-hot of late. I'm not going to sit here and bad mouth Millwood, as you can't argue with his numbers over his last 3 starts (3-0, 0.47 ERA), BUT before you go jumping on Texas' bandwagon, consider: A. His ERA is more than a run higher on the road (3.32 away vs. 2.08 at home). And B. The Giants are no slouch at AT&T Park, going 23-12 there. Not only that, but as I said before, take away Zito's last home start, and he's been downright nasty at home.
Bottom line, look for the Giants to break out the brooms this afternoon. Not impressed by this Rangers offense lately, and the fact they have to face a motivated Zito coming off a tough loss is the last thing they need. In the end, Millwood has been great, but the Giants get the best of him and Rangers in this one.
Take San Francisco behind Zito over Texas and Millwood in this MLB match up.
2♦ SAN FRANCISCO
MLB Computer Picks
Boston Red Sox -135
Minnesota Twins -130
New York Yankees -180
Craig Davis
Today's free play is on the Texas Rangers (with Millwood) over the Giants. After last night's extra inning affair, Kevin Millwood is more than anxious to get out there and shut down a team that clearly isn't scoring runs like they should. Millwood might be the hottest pitcher in baseball right now, winning his last three starts by posting an ERA of (get this) 0.42 and a WHIP of 1.06. Those last three starts have seen him go into the 8th inning, allowing 1, 0, and 0 earned runs in those games, striking out 12 and allowing just one batter in three games to go deep. Texas clearly has the offense to get to Barry Zito early, and I'm not sure if you've watched Zito much this year, but he's not even hitting 88 on the radar gun and when you face a lineup that crushes left-handed pitching, the combination is clearly in our favor. Free play of the day on the Texas Rangers over San Francisco.
2♦ TEXAS
LARRY NESS
Texas Rangers @ San Francisco Giants
PICK: Texas Rangers
I've won the last two nights with the Giants but will take the Rangers on Sunday. I really like San Fran's turnaround this year, as the Giants enter today's game 36-31 (23-12 at home), after back-to-back seasons of 90 (or more) losses. However, I can't trust them with Barry Zito on the mound, especially when the Rangers will counter with Kevin Millwood. Zito is becoming one of the biggest flops of the free agency era. After all his success in Oakland, he's gone 21-30 (4.83 ERA) these last two years in San Francisco (Giants were 27-38). Nothing much is new this year, as he'll enter this game 3-7 with a 4.72 ERA in 13 starts (team is 6-7). Millwood, Zito's pitching opponent in this game, can relate to the struggles of a free agent. He won 18 games for the Braves back in 1999 and did it again in 2002, which led to him "move on up!" However, he's never found anywhere near the type of success he had in Atlanta, whether it's been in Philly, Cleveland or now in Texas. However, he's having a terrific 2009 season and deserves even better than his 7-4 mark in 14 starts (Rangers are just 8-6). Milwood's ERA is down to 2.62 on the year, after he's allowed just three ERs over his last four starts (1.01 ERA). Despite the fact that Zito is 17-5 (3.76 ERA) in his career vs the Rangers, I consider that "old news" and will take Millwood and the Rangers in this one.
JR TIPS
NY YANKEES vs. FLORIDA MARLINS
Alex Rodriguez is expected to return to the lineup today after a two-day break after batting .145 (8 for 55) in June. New York (38-30) will start ace CC Sabathia (6-4, 3.67 ERA), who looks to continue his success against the NL when he takes on the Marlins (34-36), the only team in the majors he has never faced. Sabathia is 15-2 with a 1.95 ERA in his last 23 outings versus NL clubs.The left-hander improved to 11-3 with a 3.62 ERA in his last 23 interleague starts Tuesday by allowing three runs over 7 2/3 innings in a 5-3 win over Washington. New York lost for the third time in four games Saturday as Florida starter Josh Johnson allowed one run over seven innings.The Yankees will go up against a starter they have never faced for the sixth straight game Sunday when they get their first look at Chris Volstad (4-7, 4.75), who has posted a 7.66 ERA in losing four straight starts.Volstad made his first career interleague start Tuesday at Boston and was tagged for eight runs over a season-low 3 2/3 innings in an 8-2 loss.The 22-year-old right-hander had lasted at least five innings in his previous 10 starts. CC will give the Yankees a good chnace to get back on track but the Yankee backs will continue to have problems facing another pitcher they have not seen before.
TAKE UNDER 8 1/2 runs
VEGAS EXPERTS
St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals
The Royals send Gil Meche to the mound this afternoon as he looks to build off two very impressive outings where he did not yield a single run over 16 innings of work. KC won those two games by a combined score of 14-0 and we look for them to ride Meche's arm one more time here as the Cardinals have gone just 2-6 on Sundays this year and are 0-2 thus far this season when coming off back-to-back wins by four runs or more.
Play on: Kansas City