Tommy Gill
Los Angeles Angels -135 3 units
The pitching matchup in this game is Kershaw (3-5 4.13 ERA) against Lackey (2-2 6.10 ERA). Kershaw has been great at home this season with under a 2.00 ERA but on the road his ERA is 6.75 in six road starts. Lackey is coming off one of his better outings from the DL only giving up 3 runs in 7 innings against the Giants. The Angels are 9-3 in interleague play this season and with Lackey on the hill at home he is 8-0 with a 2.00 ERA in 10 starts which includes a 4-0 mark against the Dodgers with a .33 ERA. I believe this is a great spot for Lackey to look great at home while Kershaw does his normal let down on the road also the Angels are hitting .277 against lefties this year. We think that this is a good spot for the Angles off a loss yesterday.
Chris Jordan
Pittsburgh at COLORADO
Won’t get long-winded on this one, we simply look inside the numbers with this one:
Pittsburgh’s Paul Maholm has seen seven of nine road starts soar past the number.
The left-hander has a road ERA of 5.77 and now faces a Rockies team that has won 15 of 16 after yesterday’s dramatic walk-off victory.
Colorado’s Jorge De La Rosa has yet to win a game inside Coors Field, as he’s sporting a 0-5 mark there.
His ERA of 8.28 at home tells me that he’s leaving too many out over the zone, and he’s making way too many mistakes.
Playing the numbers with these two hurlers … go high with this one.
1♦ Pirates/Rockies OVER
Tom Freese
Oakland at San Diego
Oakland is 10-4 UNDER off a win ans they are 16-7 UNDER when Dallas Braden starts on grass. The A's are 8-3 UNDER their last 11 Sunday games and they are 6-1 UNDER in Game 3 of a series. San Diego starter Kevin Correia has a 13-1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last starts. The Padres are 11-5-1 UNDER their last 17 Interleague home games and they are 4-1 UNDER in Game 3 of series. PLAY ON 'UNDER' (Correia vs. Braden)
Freddy Wills
Arizona D-Backs vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Under 7½
After starting the week 0-2 on Free picks on a couple of cheap losses we have now gone 3-0 and continue to win the games. We are 8-3 in our last 11 Free Picks! I'll continue to give out a free play per day for a while and Father's Day will be nothing different as this one was very close to being a premium play here today.
The same series between the Diamondbacks and the Mariners that hurt our chances of a perfect POD week when the Mariners scored 4 runs in the Bottom of the 8th in Game 1 to go on to win 4-3 in that game. I recovered with a POD winner yesterday to move to 4-1 on the week so no harm no foul on the POD front. However, as the Mariners are going for the sweep I'm on this game for 2DIMES!
The line opened at -175 in favor of the Mariners to sweep. With Felix Hernandez on the mound (2-0, 1.04WHIP, .78ERA) there would be no reason for the public to be betting on them at 78% right? I can agree with that, but this morning the line has dropped from -175 to -160 according to my sources and while I do expect the Mariners to win this game it will be closer than many think.
I think Vegas is expecting a solid performance out of LHP Doug Davis and for Davis this has to be frustrating that he is going up against an ace in Felix. Why? Davis is just 3-8 despite a solid 3.72ERA on the season! No huge bounce back start spot here he was okay in his last start going 5.2 giving up 3ER what catches my eye is he has to be frustrated and the fact that he has a 2.10 ERA during the day vs. his 4.83ERA at night. Many people tend not to pay too much attention to stats like this, but I view them as a critical part of my capping, because pitching is all about routine and preparation. Davis has only had 2 bad starts in his last 10 outings so it's not crazy to say he'll pitch well.
Felix on the other hand should be just as dominant as he has a 2.00 ERA during the day compared to 3.07 night.
Notables: Under is 6-1 in umpire Johnsons L7 time behind home plate. Under is 22-5-1 L28 games on grass for the Mariners.
Take Under 7.5 Runs for a 2 DIME play
Wunderdog
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers -1½
Both Yovani Gallardo (2.93 ERA) and Justin Verlander (3.39 ERA) are putting together great seasons. The edge here however goes to Verlander who has been unhittable at home (3-0 with a 0.82 ERA). Prior to one off night in St. Louis last outing, he had won seven straight decisions and put up a 1.92 ERA over ten starts. He'll be getting run support from a team that's putting up 5.8 runs per game at home and 6.1 per game in day games this season. Detroit has won the first two games in this series putting up 10 runs and nine runs. The Brewers are just 18-45 in their last 63 games revenging back-to-back losses in which a team put up 8+ runs on them. They are also 19-44 to the run line in that situation. With the run line odds set at -130 to +170 this season, the Tigers are 11-5 against the run line. I like the Tigers here at the big +170 line to win by two or more.
IndianCowboy
Take Under 7.5 between the Oakland A's @ San Diego Padres
You have to feel for any pitcher that pitches for either of these teams. Man, it must stink. After all, they are both sub .500 and despite the fact that you work hard in each other, it is difficult to pick up the "W". Braden has pitched 9 of 10 quality starts - simply brilliant as he has a 3.31 era on the year in the AL. He has given up a total of 13 earned runs in 6 starts which comprises of 40 innings. Yet, he is just 2-0 over his last 6 starts due to lack of offense from the A's. Correia pitched brilliantly in his last start against Seattle at home going 8 innings and giving up just 2 earned runs, but came away with a loss. He has given up just 5 runs over his last 3 starts which comprises of 20 innings. I look for both pitchers to continue pitching well as these offenses have lacked pop throughout the year and given that both pitchers are pitching very well coming into this game. The Under is 5-0 in Braden's last 5 sunday starts and the Under is 5-1 in Knight's last 6 Sunday games behind the plate - not to mention 4-1 to the under when the Friars comre off a loss.