Super Padres
By Kevin Rogers
Yes, the Padres have been a major disappointment this season. But, there's no need for bettors to discount Bud Black's team, who has quietly put together a nice winning stretch, and it looks to continue this week.
The cornerstone of San Diego's rotation was dealt this week, as Jake Peavy agreed to waive his no-trade clause and head to the White Sox. The loss at this point isn't as huge, with Peavy on the disabled list for the last month. The Padres may have benefited with the pickup of left-hander Clayton Richard in the Peavy deal. Richard, who struggled to start the season with the Sox, compiled a pair of strong starts in his final two outings in Chicago. Richard's San Diego debut was a successful one, slowing down the Brewers offense in a 4-2 victory Saturday night.
San Diego's pitching staff has taken many hits this season with the losses of Peavy (first to injury, then to trade) and Chris Young (injury). Kevin Correia leads the staff in wins (7), coming over in the offseason from the Giants. The Padres are 7-5 in his home starts, following Sunday's loss to Milwaukee. Correia is expected to start on Friday when the Padres host the Mets.
The Padres are getting nice contributions from several young arms. Mat Latos is coming off a pair of road victories at Washington and Cincinnati. Latos allowed one hit and one run in seven innings of work against the Reds, his second straight underdog victory. Tim Stauffer has compiled three quality starts in four outings, pitching at least six innings three times. Latos is due to take the mound twice on this homestand, Monday against Atlanta, then Saturday against the Mets. Stauffer will start Tuesday then likely wrap up the Mets series on Sunday.
This lineup has underachieved all season, but has woken up recently. The Padres won the final three games of their series at Cincinnati, tallying 17 runs. San Diego then busted out for 11 runs in an 11-7 victory over Milwaukee on Friday night, only the second time all season the Padres put up double-digit runs.
The Padres made headlines back in May with a ten-game winning streak, briefly stepping above the .500 mark. Nine of those victories came at Petco Park. That's significant because the Padres are in the midst of a season-high ten-game homestand, hosting the Braves and Mets for seven games beginning Monday. The Mets are tied for the third-fewest away wins in baseball, while the Braves are 3-8 since May 25 on the road off a road victory. Basically, if Atlanta finds a way to win either of the first two games of its series at Petco, it would be a good idea to fade the Braves in the next contest.
The Padres will miss out on Jair Jurrjens and Derek Lowe when the Braves head into San Diego on Monday. Kenshin Kawakami gets the ball Monday night, owning a road ERA of 5.70. The always tough Javier Vazquez goes on Tuesday, but he will no doubt be favored, bringing his 3.01 ERA into the contest. Rookie Tommy Hanson, who has stumbled as of late, takes the hill Wednesday afternoon. The 'over' may be the play against Hanson, as the Braves are 9-3 to the 'over' in road day games against right-handed starters this season, facing San Diego's Chad Gaudin.
The soap opera known as the Mets arrives in Southern California on Thursday night for a four-game series. Unfortunately for the Padres, they will draw Mets ace Johan Santana on Sunday afternoon. Two inconsistent pitchers will toe the rubber in the first two games of that series, as the Mets send out Mike Pelfrey (8-6, 4.72 ERA) on Thursday and Oliver Perez (2-3, 7.03 ERA) on Friday.
Once again, the Padres are not threatening to make any noise the rest of the way. However, from the betting perspective, keep an eye on San Diego this week to see if they can duplicate its May magic at Petco Park.
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