Surging Yankees
By Judd Hall
There are only so many certainties that people can count on in their lifetime. One is that the sun will always rise in the east, death is inevitable for everyone (except maybe Al Davis) and the New York Yankees will find themselves playing baseball in October.
That setup worked pretty well for 13 straight seasons from 1995 to 2007. Last year, however, that thinking was turned on its ear as the Yankees failed to qualify for the playoffs for the first time since the strike shortened season of 1994.
Things didn’t look like they would get much better this season in the Bronx when Alex Rodriguez missed most of spring training and the start of the regular season with a torn labrum in his right hip. The whole admitting to steroid use didn’t help matters either.
As if losing their top hitter wasn’t enough, the Yanks opened a new stadium that plays much different that the old digs. The field dimensions of the new Yankee Stadium are identical to the old place, but it plays like a bandbox.
In the first 13 home games of 2008, New York was 6-7 with the ‘under’ going 8-4-1. The Yankees hadn’t accounted for the jet stream that is circulating in right field and they wound up with an identical 6-7 mark after at their new home. What is different is that there were 47 pitches found their way into the outfield seats in those contests. And that offensive explosion helped the ‘over’ go 9-3-1.
All told the Yankees were 14-16 after getting swept in a short two-game series at home to Tampa Bay on May 7. Fans and bettors alike were getting concerned as the high priced acquisitions of C.C. Sabathia and Mark Teixeira weren’t panning out at the beginning.
On May 8, the Bronx Bombers got A-Rod back from his injury and everything seemed to change overnight.
I’m not one to think that one player can cure all ills for a given team, but the numbers speak for themselves. The Yankees are 21-7 since Rodriguez took over at third base.
A-Rod’s stats aren’t the greatest (.248 batting average, 8 home runs, 23 runs batted in), but his presence is making the players around him better. Teixeira has been the biggest beneficiary as he hits in the No. 3 hole just before Rodriguez. Since May 8, Teixeira has hit .367 with 13 four-baggers and 37 RBI.
As lively as the bats have since Rodriguez’s return, the ‘under’ is still 16-11-2. That means we’re seeing much better pitching out of the Yanks. Sabathia is 5-3 with a 3.56 earned run average this season, while A.J. Burnett is 2-1 with an ERA of 3.57 in his last four starts in the pinstripes. Andy Pettitte has been solid as well with a 4-1 record to go along with a 4.21 ERA in his past six starts. And Mariano Rivera is coming around as he has converted 10 straight save opportunities.
Run line bettors have noticed that the Yanks have been hit or miss with covering 1 ½-runs on a 15-14 mark since May 8. I’ve been told by a few people that you never take a home “chalk” on the run line. That has held true with New York as they’re 7-9 at Yankee Stadium. On the road, the Yankees are 8-5 on the run line.
You’re certainly within your right to back the Yankees during their three-game set against Boston. But your better chances to cash in on the pinstripes is when interleague play returns over the weekend.
It starts with the Subway Series with the Mets at home. The Mets are still within reach of the National League East right now, but they’re doing it with small ball. New York has hit just 34 home runs as a team this season; only the Pirates and Giants have hit fewer homers. It’s good for them that they’ll be hitting the latest launching pad over the weekend. You have to wonder if we’ll get some low totals in the series since the numbers are at 9 ½ up to 11 for Yankee home games.
If you’re looking to hit some ‘overs’ and run line plays, then look at the three-game set with the Nationals on June 16-18. Washington is easily the worst team in the majors. They have the worst ERA in MLB (5.51) and are 27th in walks issued (237). Put that against a team in the Yanks that are hitting .277 as a team and have the most home runs in the big leagues with 92. New York will have plenty of chances to cross home plate and pad a lead.
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