Surprising Pitching Profits
By Joe Nelson
A glance at the top money starters so far into the 2009 baseball season brings many expected players, including some early Cy Young favorites. A few usual suspects among elite pitchers are also bringing in big profits as Roy Halladay and Carlos Zambrano are also near the top of the list despite being heavy favorites almost every time out. There have also been some serious surprises that are worth a closer look.
Jason Marquis: The Rockies are 4-1 behind the veteran, whose signing was shrugged by many in the baseball community. Marquis doesn’t have dominant stuff, but he has pitched well enough to have four wins. All four wins were quality starts so he has not been a case of getting unusual run support. Marquis has pitched extremely well in both of his starts at Coors Field, despite the stadium’s reputation as a launching pad. And he owns wins over the Dodgers, Cubs, and Phillies.
Marquis has been a double-digit winner for five straight years and was often considered a beneficiary of being on good teams. But he is proving he can continue to be a more than capable starter in the league. Value should be on Marquis and the Rockies in many situations until he hits a rough stretch.
Scott Richmond: With the plethora of injuries to Toronto’s pitching staff, somebody needed to step up to fill some of the holes and Richmond has been that guy. Despite matching his previous career total for starts already this season, Richmond has proven to be a key part of Toronto’s hot start. He’s made four straight quality starts and Toronto is 5-0 in the games he has started.
Richmond has received strong run-support from Toronto’s offense and he hasn’t pitched against the Big 3 teams in the AL East (Boston, New York and Tampa Bay). He probably won’t keep this pace up, but his overall numbers have been solid with a 1.22 WHIP and a 2.67 ERA. Richmond will be a much cheaper option than Halladay when backing the Jays and is just as effective. With Toronto’s strong bullpen, backing the Jays should be worth a look in Richmond starts.
Russ Ortiz: Don’t call it a comeback yet but a struggling Houston team is 3-0 in Ortiz starts this season and he hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of those games. His walks have been a bit high and Ortiz has not gone deep into any of his starts. Ortiz may not keep his job once Brandon Backe is healthy but so far he is a decent option for the Astros and they are winning behind him. The numbers suggest Ortiz’s start is a bit of a fluke and his control has been spotty but he should be taken seriously in upcoming games. Houston and Ortiz are likely to be underdogs in many situations, so opportunities may be there.
Braden Looper: The signing of Looper did not create much of buzz for the Brewers, but he’s been a solid innings eater. As a result the Brewers are 4-1 in the games that he has started and the lone defeat was not a game that he pitched poorly in. Looper has gone at least five innings in every start and allowed as many as four runs in only one of those outings. Looper was a 12-game winner for the Cardinals the past two years and should get there again with Milwaukee.
Mark Buehrle: After going 85-53 from 2000 to 2005, culminating in a World Series championship, Buehrle was considered a huge disappointment when his numbers ballooned in 2006. In the last two years he did not produce a great win/loss record, but featured a very strong ERA. And 2008 was the eighth straight year in which Buehrle pitched at least 200 innings. With Chicago expected to fall back a bit after winning the AL Central last season, Buehrle has been valued as an average pitcher. Those who have backed him have been paid handsomely as Chicago is 5-0 in his starts. Buehrle has allowed three or fewer runs in every start and the Chicago bullpen has held his lead in every game. In a division that looks wide open and fraught with questionable pitching, Buehrle looks like a reliable option.
VegasInsider.com