The Baseball Marathon
By Jim Feist
162 games is a long season. Every year teams sprint out of the gate in April and May with October dreams, only to come back to the pack by July. It's not a sprint, of course, but a marathon, where a strong balance of pitching, defense and offense carries the best teams into the postseason. Injuries, too, are key, as well as trades made before the July deadline. Teams have figured out their strengths and weaknesses now and are beginning to look for pieces to add before the deadline, while others are figuring out whom to dump. Here's a look at some recent baseball surging and slumping teams.
Indians: Cleveland was projected to be a last place team the last two years, but has shot out of the gate like Secretariat surprising many. A year ago the Indians started 30-15 with a young team, only to finish 80-82. That was still good for second place in the dismal AL Central behind the Tigers. This season there has been no take charge team and Cleveland started 26-18 before a late May slump against the White Sox, Royals and Twins (uggh). What has been impressive is the offense, 19th in runs scored along with a club that is patient at the plate, Top 10 in on-base percentage. There's good young talent on offense, but pitching is key to success over the long haul and, like last year, the Indians don't appear to have it. Newcomer Derek Lowe had a hot start but has tailed off, and young arms Juston Masterson, Jeanmar Gomez and Ubaldo Jimenez haven't given them quality innings. By the way, the Indians are 39-17-3 over the total on the road. All eyes will be on the Cleveland management this month: Spend some bucks to bring in a frontline starter? Or become sellers in the market, which would be another huge let down to their fans.
Phillies: The Phillies were expected to be the dominant team with that great rotation but they've been a big disappointment. Injuries have been the main problem to the oldest team in baseball. Roy Halladay is still out and Cliff Lee had a short stint on the DL, but he's back along with Cole Hamels and Vance Worley, so there is plenty of punch on the mound. But what about the offense? 2B Chase Utley is finally back and they await the return of star slugger Ryan Howard. The Phillies do not expect Howard back until sometime in July, but there should be enough talent for this team to make a second half run - if they get healthier. The Phillies are 20-6 in Lee's last 26 starts against a team with a winning record, as well on a recent 20-8-1 run over the total.
Orioles: What a fascinating young team. The pitching is above average in team ERA and the offense is potent, 17th in runs scored and in the Top 10 in slugging, led by 26-year old CF Adam Jones. They come to play every night behind hard driving manager Buck Showalter. Baltimore has a terrific bullpen. That will be a plus down the stretch with arms Jason Hammell, Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta and Tommy Hunter carrying the young rotation. Keep in mind the Orioles are 17-8 against a left-handed starter and 21-10-2 over the total as a road underdog of +110 to +150.
Cardinals: Are the defending champs dead, or just napping? After a fast start St. Louis was hit hard by injuries, stumbling around .500. The offense is still in the Top 6 in key categories (OBP, runs, slugging, batting average) and the pitching staff can lean on Adam Wainwright, who is rounding into form, control specialist Kyle Lohse and Lance Lynn. The Cardinals are 18-5 over the total against righties and 15-5-1 over on the road. And guess what? One year ago the Cardinals had a fast start before struggling due to injuries, including losing Wainwright - and ended up winning it all.
Marlins: The young team that won't go away! The Marlins have a first-year manager, a new stadium and have overachieved. They are tough to face because the pitching has been upgraded with the addition of veterans Carlos Zambrano and lefty Mark Buehrle. Anaibel Sanchez has emerged as an ace and they are winning despite the struggles of former ace Josh Johnson. Miami is unique in that they attack on the base paths, leading the league in steals with speedy Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonafacio and Hanley Ramirez. The new park is big, great for pitchers, and the added speed has turned into a huge asset at home, not only to manufacture runs but aiding the defense and the pitching staff. The under is 18-7-2 in the Marlins last 27 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. This is a tough week for Miami, a seven-game road trip leading to the break at Milwaukee and St. Louis.