The Twin-Killing Problem
By Scott Rickenbach
Rolling along on a solid MLB run through Tuesday, May 26th, the impact of the bounce of the ball – including double plays (also known as a Twin-Killing) started a tough stretch for the next four days. What has profited for me greatly through the years is playing overs in baseball. Finding the games that – based on pitching match-ups, bullpen situations, weather outlooks, etc – have "over" written all "over" them! This has benefited me well through the years but, as an "over player", wasted opportunities, hitters failing to deliver in the clutch, and double plays are all some of my worst enemies. The reason this article is being written now is to help bettors understand that it is absolutely best to analyze their streaks both good and bad. If you’re on a good run you are sometimes "in a zone". However, even a poor stretch can happen when the ball seems to consistently bounce against you. The most important thing is not to change what has worked for you long-term just because things have not gone your way short-term. Analyze your streak and see what you can derive from the games.
On Wednesday I had an 0-1-1 in baseball. I lost with the over in Minnesota as they left – count ‘em – 14 men on base in that game! The push was equally painful as I pushed with the over in Texas. Not only did the Yankees leave 10 men on base but, with the game already sitting at 11 (the posted total), the Yanks had bases loaded and just one out in the top of the 9th. We were just one pitch away from an easy over at that point. Instead, Derek Jeter hit into a fly out double play as the Rangers killed our over by nailing the guy at the plate as he tried to score from third. In each of these games we were involved with Wednesday there were just two double plays in each game. That is roughly "normal" as teams historically average less than one double play per game. However, the timing of double plays – like the one we suffered in a big scoring situation in the top of the 9th with the Yankees – can be absolutely devastating. The situation with double plays got worse as the week went on however!
On Thursday, my two overs in baseball each looked like "train wrecks" and it was the scourge of the Twin-Killing that did us in. It’s a rally-killer to say the least. It can kill a lead-off walk that began an inning. It can end a great bases-loaded one-out scoring opportunity. The power of the double play is huge to say the least. However, it’s also not suppose to beat you up on a daily basis. History has shown it’s suppose to average less than two per game. Thursday we suffered an amazing 9 double plays in the two games we were involved with! Talk about a real "Twin-Killing", the double plays killed any chances for either one of our overs to get any momentum going. Then, on Friday, I went 2-2 in the bases as I won both side plays in solid fashion. However, with my totals I had one over come up just one run short and then the other over saw a total of four double plays in the game – ugh! Saturday, the disturbing trend continued as I went 1-2 in the bases and my two losses totaled 9 double plays!
This stretch of being plagued by double plays is simply amazing and it’s something that would be very hard to ever repeat. This is a stretch where, in just three days, I have lost five overs that averaged nearly 4.5 double plays per game. Again, the average historically is less than 2. The point is that this will get turned around and, the importance of analyzing a tough stretch in any sport is very important. It can let you know if your methods are flawed or if the ball is simply not bouncing your way or if it’s a case of a little bit of both. In summary, reflection on losses is important, and then it’s time to move ahead and enjoy the future winnings. That’s what I am ready to do right now and hope you’ll be along for the ride – just like the one we enjoyed last summer and fall in the bases! Best of luck in all your gaming