This Week's Best MLB Trends
By Bill McBride
Covers.com
HOT TEAM: Washington Nationals
THIS SEASON: 12-4.
LAST WEEK: 5-1.
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: At the Padres for three, at the Dodgers for three.
THE SKINNY: There was a lot of talk surrounding the Nationals in spring training. They were the chic team, the club that could surprise in a tough National League East. Well, if a small sampling is any indication, manager Davey Johnson seems to have the right mix, he’s pushing the right buttons, and there is baseball fever in the nation’s capital.
Last week, one win rolled right after another, it seemed, including a shutout of Houston (1-0) on Tuesday, and another against the Marlins (2-0) on Friday.
Jayson Werth, last year’s bust of a free-agent signing from Philadelphia, has turned a corner and sat with a .475 slugging percentage and a .322 average. The Nationals have little speed -- swiping just four bases as a team -- but when you have four players with at least seven RBIs, including Werth (13), maybe you don’t need to steal bags. As for the arms, it's all about the strikeouts. Stephen Strasburg (25), Gio Gonzalez (21) and Edwin Jackson (20) are sending NL batters back to the dugout at a regular rate, and for now, the bullpen is making leads hold up. Eventually, the books will account for Washington’s prowess. So you might want to jump on the Nationals now.
COLD TEAM: Kansas City Royals
THIS SEASON: 3-11.
LAST WEEK: 0-5.
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: Home to the Blue Jays for one, at the Indians for three, at the Twins for three.
THE SKINNY: To be fair, the Royals had some tough sledding last week, but the numbers were not good regardless. They battled, give them credit for that, but that only made the losses tougher to swallow. Three defeats to Detroit by a combined score of 10-6, and another nailbiter against Toronto, 4-3 on Friday. Surprisingly, the Royals were 10th in the majors in team batting. But it just doesn't feel like it. Probably because a lot of those hits were of the hollow variety, and perhaps more important, they had only a .318 on-base percentage and .417 slugging clip as a club. On the pitching staff, no one had more than 15 strikeouts, and the Royals had more blown saves (three), than actual saves (two). It could be another long year for manager Ned Yost and Co.
OVER TEAM: Toronto Blue Jays
O/U THIS SEASON: 10-4.
O/U LAST WEEK: 4-1.
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: At the Royals for one, at the Orioles for three, home to the Mariners for three.
THE SKINNY: Balance, balance, balance has been the order of the day in Toronto. Seven players -- Jeff Mathis (.400), Edwin Encarnacion (.328), Brett Lawrie (.281), Colby Rasmus (.321), Eric Thames (.256), Omar Vizquel (.250), and Ben Francisco (.250) -- owned at least a .250 batting average, and six of those players -- taking out Vizquel -- had at least an on-base percentage of .300, including Mathis (.900) and Encarnacion (.621). And a forgotten statistic always key to overs that Toronto has excelled in, is walks. Kelly Johnson and Jose Bautista both had 11, and in Toronto, if you're getting on, there seem to be enough bats to get them home. Last week, the Blue Jays scored 28 runs in five games. Another signal for overs? Batting average against for your pitching staff, and Toronto has abided. Drew Hutchison (.364), Sergio Santos (.316) and Francisco Cordero (.292) have made sure of that.
UNDER TEAM: Detroit Tigers
O/U THIS SEASON: 4-10-1.
O/U LAST WEEK: 2-4.
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: Home to the Mariners for three, at the Yankees for three.
THE SKINNY: Just goes to show you that adjustments needs to be made when lineups change, no matter how much star power you bring in from other teams. Prince Fielder will pay dividends over the long haul. But as dangerous as he's made this lineup, the Tigers are not immune to unders. In a three-game sweep of the Royals, the Tigers posted a hat trick of unders, and did not score more than four runs in any game. They finished the series with just 10 runs total, and took just a .250 batting average into Sunday's action. That was good for 13th in the majors. And their on-base percentage (.392) clocked in at 17th. Not exactly how Detroit brass drew it up in the offseason. But style points aren't for them, and neither should they be for you. If Detroit remains an overvalued over play, continue to ride that under train, folks.
Hot and Not
By Mike Rose
VegasInsider.com
We’re two weeks into the 2012 MLB regular season with teams having already developed betting trends both good and bad. We’re going to be taking a look at the three most lucrative and costly teams with every passing week, but remember, the regular season is an arduous one with every team going through numerous cycles; play accordingly.
Money Makers
Texas Rangers (13-3, $832): Where else would one start to look when breaking down the best investments of the young season other than in Arlington where the two-time defending AL champion Rangers have gotten out to a smoking hot start. It took the offense three games before exploding for the first double-digit offensive tally of the season (11), and ever since, Josh Hamilton and his mates have pounded out three-more 10+ run explosions en route to the best record in the league. Texas’ stats are simply eye-popping! Manager Ron Washington’s squad looks to have another “Murderers Row” at his disposal with Texas averaging 5.88 runs per game (#2) with a .303 team batting average (#1); oh yeah, they’ve also gone yard 26 times! Making them all the more lethal has been the starting pitching staff (#1 with 13 quality starts) and bullpen, which has converted all but one of their six save opportunities.
On The Docket: Texas returns home for its next six to face the Yankees and Rays, but might be forced to go without the services of 3B Adrian Beltre who’s been a consistent source of offense in the middle of their potent line-up.
Los Angeles Dodgers (12-4, $802): L.A. last qualified for the playoffs back in 2009. Since then, the franchise was marred in mediocrity as it dealt with the McCourt bankruptcy drama and a fledgling ball club. With the news of the Dodgers being sold for an outrageous amount at the season open, the squad has fed off the positive mojo by trotting out to a 3.5-game lead in the NL West. This in large part has been due to the Herculean efforts of one Matt Kemp who’s playing with an awfully big chip on his shoulder after getting snubbed for the NL MVP last season; he’s currently the leader in batting average (.450), HRs (9), RBI (22), and runs scored (17). The pitching staff has also been top notch with Clayton Kershaw dominant and Chad Billingsley getting out to an unforeseen start – sans @ HOU. The stoic Javy Guerra has also locked down seven of his eight overall save chances.
On The Docket: We’ll get a clearer picture of what the Dodgers are all about this upcoming week with them scheduled to put their unblemished home record (6-0, $600) on the line against the Braves and Nationals. LA’s first five opponents combined for just 24 total wins in 64 tries (.375).
Washington Nationals (12-4, -$728): The surprising NL East leading Nats have gotten it done in the early going with some exceptional pitching and timely hitting. Manager Davey Johnson’s squad is only hitting at a .243 clip (#24) and scoring an average of just 3.62 RPG (#24), but the pitching staff has been nothing short of lights out ranking top two in ERA (2.34), WHIP (1.05), and strikeouts (144). Ian Desmond has done a fantastic job setting the table for big boppers Adam LaRoche and Ryan Zimmerman who have combined for three HR and 20 RBI. The main story in our nation’s capital however has been the starting staff of Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman, Gio Gonzalez, Ross Detwiler, and Edwin Jackson who’ve all put forth at least one quality start.
On The Docket: The Nats have benefited from playing each of their L/10 games in front of the hometown faithful, but will hit the road for six games versus the red hot Dodgers and weak hitting Padres. Still, the staff should thrive in pitcher’s paradises Petco & AT&T Park.
Money Burners
Los Angeles Angels (6-10, -$943): This is not the way it was supposed to go! After Arte Moreno threw Brinks trucks filled with cash at Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson in the off-season, the Halos were hailed as one of the favorites to represent the AL in the World Series. Regardless of how good a team looks on paper, you still have to play the games, and right now, Manager Mike Scioscia would love for the “mulligan rule” to be implemented. A foreshadowing of what was to come might have taken place in their opening home series against the Kansas City Royals who went into the “Big A” and took two of three by limiting the Angels to a combined 11 runs (3.7 RPG); the power outage has continued with Pujols still in search of his first home run. As for the starting rotation, Jered Weaver and C.J Wilson have been rock solid, but the remaining three arms have combined for a 6.18 ERA.
On The Docket: LA’s struggling pitching staff will be tested over the next week at Tampa Bay and Cleveland with both possessing offenses that can mash.
Kansas City Royals (3-12, -$834): The Royals went into the offseason feeling very good about themselves after their young roster seemed to find its way en route to posting a lucrative September for their betting backers (15-10, $668). After splitting their first six games at Los Angeles and Oakland, the Royals returned home psyched to take to the diamond and play in front of a revitalized KC fan base. That said; Manager Ned Yost’s squad went on to drop each of its first nine home games of the year (-$956) by giving up an average of 6.7 RPG. The starting staff has only secured five quality efforts (#28) and constantly put the defense in precarious positions with a 1.46 WHIP (#28). If the Royals are to turn this thing around, the offense is going to have to start living up to its preseason expectations.
On The Docket: They’ll be out for their first home win on Monday in the series finale with Toronto before hitting the road for nine against divisional opposition. KC’s 9-11 its L/20 versus the AL Central and 4-11 its L/15 when dogged.
Chicago Cubs (4-12, $701): Would any list like this be complete without adding the “Loveable losers” to the mix? It might be a changing of the guard in Wrigleyville, but the story remains the same on the Northside with Manager Dale Sveum’s squad managing just four wins in their first 16 games. The offense is void of big sticks as it’s launched just five HRs into the bleachers (#30) while scoring an average of just 3.69 RPG (#22). Neither the starting staff (4.66 ERA) nor bullpen (5.06 ERA) has offered much in relief, and Carlos Marmol has blown two of his three overall save chances. It’s almost as if the games over if their opponent hangs a crooked number on the board early with this team unable to score runs themselves or prevent runs from going on the board late.
On The Docket: Chicago hosts the Cardinals in the rivals second series of the season before heading out to Philadelphia which will be the first of two stops on a seven-game road trip. The Cubs have dropped seven of their L/26 when installed underdogs.