This Week's Best MLB Trends
Covers.com
Hot team: San Francisco Giants
This season: 45-35, 8.67 units
Last 10: 7-3
This week’s schedule: At Washington, at Pittsburgh
The Giants split a weekend set at home against Cincinnati and now head to Washington for three games against the NL East-leading Nationals. The good news for Giants supporters is it looks like they’ll miss the front end of Washington’s rotation, meaning they likely won’t have to deal with Strasburg and Gonzalez. The Giants put together four straight shutouts during this hot streak though the club’s offense is still a concern, putting up just 3.96 runs per game this season. Tim Lincecum takes the ball in the series opener looking to follow up his best start of the season, a seven-inning blanking of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Cold team: Los Angeles Dodgers
This season: 44-36, 5.84 units
Last 10 games: 2-8
This week’s schedule: Home vs. Cincinnati, at San Diego
The Dodgers went into Monday’s action just one game behind the NL West-leading Giants even though they had lost eight of their last 10. Before they broke out with eight runs in Sunday’s win over the New York Mets, the Dodgers had been shut out in five of six games. Even though sluggers Matt Kemp and Andre Either are getting closer to returning to the lineup, Los Angeles continues to search for a big bat ahead of the trade deadline. A possible deal for Houston’s Carlos Lee fell through over the weekend.
Over team: Toronto Blue Jays
O/U this season: 40-34-5
O/U last 10 games: 7-2-1
This week’s schedule: Home vs. Kansas City, at Detroit
The Blue Jays went into Monday’s action having seen the over cash in each of their last five games. On Sunday, they went into the eighth inning tied 3-3 with the Angels. Then the bullpen imploded again as the Angels ran away with a 10-6 victory. Toronto’s bullpen ranks 21st in the league with a 4.13 ERA and with an offense that averages 5.04 runs per game and has hit 117 homers, over bettors love the Jays. Slugger Jose Bautista may only be hitting .239, but he hit 14 home runs in June and already has 63 RBI this season. Toronto has won four consecutive games against Kansas City, though just one of those played over its posted total.
Under team: Minnesota Twins
O/U this season: 36-38-4
O/U last 10 games: 2-8
This week’s schedule: At Detroit, At Texas
Eight of Minnesota’s last nine games had played under the total before the Twins came out on the good end of a wild 10-8 decision against Kansas City. They swatted four homers in that one, but have hit just 67 dingers this season (ranking 24th) and average only 4.17 runs per game. They were stuck in the basement of the AL Central, 8.5 games off the pace as they look for their second four-game winning streak of the season Monday night in Detroit. The Tigers have been just as good to under bettors lately, cashing in eight of their last 10 as well.
MLB Hot and Not
By Mike Rose
VegasInsider.com
Just about half of the 2012 season is in the books, and the entire league is set to go on hiatus at the beginning of next week for the Midsummer Classic. Here's a look at what some of the hottest and coldest teams did over the course of last week heading into the halfway point of the regular season.
Money-Makers
Chicago Cubs (5-1, $432): Sure, the Cubs might have cost their betting backers nearly $1500 overall, but any time this club can get some positive pub, we have to pounce on it! After rattling off a 5-1 week, Manager Dale Sveum's squad is no longer the bottom feeder on the money earned list. With the trade deadline fast approaching, look for more key cogs in the Minors to get their call up to the "bigs" to join fellow call-up - Anthony Rizzo - on the playing field. Chicago is expected to have a number of its veterans plucked from its line-up in hopes of making teams with playoff aspirations that much better, so this stretch of recent hot play could carry into next week's festivities.
On The Docket: Chicago will close out its first half of the season away from Wrigley Field - Atlanta/New York - where its won just 10 of its 39 overall games played to date (-$1443).
Pittsburgh Pirates (4-3, $254): Make it four out of five series wins for the Buccos who split their four-game series at Philadelphia before going into St. Louis and taking it to the Redbirds last week. In doing so, Manager Clint Hurdle's squad now sits just a game in back of the Cincinnati Reds in the NL Central pennant race and a game in back of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL Wild Card race. Unfortunately, the team's catalyst offensively - Andrew McCutchen - suffered a wrist injury on Saturday and could be held out this week for precautionary measures.
On The Docket: Now the best bet in all of baseball ($1432), the Pirates will look to finish the first half of their 2012 campaign strong with seven-games set to go against Houston and San Francisco at home where they're 23-13 overall ($1048)
Miami Marlins (4-2, $207): The month of June was daunting to say the least for Manager Ozzie Guillen and the Marlins who tallied just nine wins in 27 tries, but the Fish closed it out strong winning each of their final three games before getting out to a 1-0 start in July after putting the finishing touches of a three-game home sweep on the division rival Phillies. If the Marlins are to stick to their season long "MO" of excelling every other month like they've done over the course of the first half of the season, the NL East standings could have a much different look to them come the first of August.
On The Docket: Miami will look to build upon its current 10-8 record versus NL Central opponents and 16-18 record away from Marlins Ballpark in Milwaukee and St. Louis over the next seven days.
Honorable Mentions: Texas Rangers (5-2, $144), New York Mets (4-3, $75)
Money-Burners
Tampa Bay Rays (1-6, -$573): The AL East was once one of the more competitive divisions in all of baseball, but ever since the Yankees claimed the top spot a couple weeks back, the Rays have come up short on the scoreboard more times than Manager Joe Maddon would have liked. Since June 20th, Tampa Bay has earned just three wins in its 12 overall games played, and because of it, sits in front of only the Toronto Blue Jays within the division a lofty 7.5-games in back of New York. News of Evan Longoria's rehab setback seems to have taken the wind out of this teams' sails heading into the break.
On The Docket: The Rays could eat into their deficit with three scheduled to go against the Yankees at home (22-18, -$249) before turning their attention to the Indians on the road (19-20, $138).
Los Angeles Dodgers (1-6, -$541): It was another brutal week for Manager Don Mattingly's Dodgers who lost their grasp of the NL West lead at the beginning of it in dropping all three games to the hated Giants at AT&T Park. That bitter sweep was followed up with another series loss after the Mets took three of four and handed the home team two more shut out defeats before avoiding the sweep in Sunday's finale; LA was shut out in five of its seven overall games played! Thankfully, Matt Kemp has stated he'll be back following the All Star festivities.
On The Docket: The final week of the first half of the season could be a make or break one for the injury ravaged Dodgers who will host the NL Central leading Cincinnati Reds before traveling to the desert to battle the recently surging Arizona Diamondbacks; LA's won 17 of its 29 overall games played within the division, but has only won one of its L/6.
Baltimore Orioles (1-5, -$467): Since the very first week of the season, Manager Buck Showalter's Orioles have shown the ability to hit with the best in the league, but the starting pitching staff left much to be desired. That is still precisely the case now with the team launching the fourth most home runs in the league (99), while also getting just 33 quality starts from the starting staff (#26). Though Nick Markakis looks to be on the comeback trail off the DL and Jim Thome's bat came over in a weekend trade, changes must be made in the Orioles' starting pitching department - currently sit six-games out - if they're to once again become a playoff hopeful.
On The Docket: The Orioles will hit the west coast to battle the Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Angels in hopes of improving upon their impressive 20-16 road record that's reeled in a healthy $1089 return for their investing supporters.
Dishonorable Mentions: Houston Astros (2-5, -$335), Philadelphia Phillies (2-5, -$322)
Most overrated teams in baseball
By Bryan Leonard
We used a combination of our True Runs Formula and Expected Wins in order to come up with the most overrated teams in baseball. As a whole betting against these teams going forward should provide a positive return, especially going against the top tier. Ranked from most overrated to neutral with the adjusted win percentage.
Cleveland .68
Cincinnati .475
Pittsburgh .46
NY Yankees .41
Baltimore .38
Milwaukee .355
NY Mets .315
Washington .315
Miami .265
Houston .20
Tampa Bay .155
Minnesota .11
Colorado .03
San Diego .02
San Francisco .015
LA Dodgers .005
We used a combination of our True Runs Formula and Expected Wins in order to come up with the most underrated teams in baseball. As a whole betting against these teams going forward should provide a positive return, especially going against the top tier. Ranked from most underrated to neutral with the adjusted win percentage.
Chi Cubs .745
St Louis .67
LA Angels .63
Philadelphia .53
Texas .46
Chi WS .39
Toronto .35
Boston .18
Detroit .17
Seattle .145
Arizona .105
Oakland .08
Atlanta .055
Kansas City .04