NATIONAL LEAGUE
Philadelphia (4-5) at N.Y. Mets (3-4)
The Phillies wrap up a three-game set at Shea Stadium by sending right-hander Adam Eaton (0-0, 3.52 ERA) to the hill against Mets righty John Maine (0-1, 9.00 ERA).
The Mets snapped a three-game overall losing streak and nine-game skid to Philadelphia with Wednesday’s 8-2 rout of the Phillies. Despite last night’s result, the Phillies – who won Monday’s opener 5-2 – are still 13-7 in their last 20 against New York and 8-3 in their last 11 at Shea Stadium. Also, Philadelphia is on runs of 11-6 on the road, 13-7 against right-handed starters and 35-18 against the N.L. East.
New York is still just 2-10 in its last 12 home games and 2-10 in its last 12 against right-handed starters.
Eaton, who went 10-10 with a 6.29 ERA in 30 starts last year, got a no-decision in his 2008 debut, allowing three runs on six hits in 7 2/3 innings in his team’s 4-3 loss at Cincinnati on Saturday. He’s had great success against the Mets, with a 5-0 mark and 2.68 ERA in seven career starts, including 2-0 with a 3.86 ERA in four outings last season – with both wins coming at Shea. Finally, despite a 6.12 road ERA last season, Eaton went 7-3 in 15 starts.
Maine, coming off a 15-10 campaign with a 3.91 ERA in 30 starts, struggled in his opener Saturday, allowing four runs on eight hits in four innings in an 11-5 loss at Atlanta. However, Maine is 4-0 with a 2.13 ERA the past two seasons against the Mets, getting a road win and two home no-decisions last year. Maine went an even 6-6 at home last year, with a 3.44 ERA.
Although last night’s game barely eclipsed the posted total, the under is still 8-4-1 in the last 13 head-to-head meetings overall and 8-3 in the last 11 matchups in New York. The under is also 10-5 in the Phillies’ last 15 games against right-handed starters, but the over is 12-4-2 in Eaton’s last 18 starts overall and 7-1-2 in Eaton’s last 10 on the highway.
For New York, the over is on runs of 17-5-1 overall, 18-6-1 against division rivals and 8-3 in Maine’s last 11 home starts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Detroit (1-7) at Boston (4-5)
Having finally gotten into the win column, the Tigers will now try to make it two in a row when they send left-hander Nate Robertson (0-0, 9.0 ERA) to the mound in the finale of a three-game series at Fenway Park. The Red Sox are set to counter with veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (0-0, 4.50).
Detroit, which entered Wednesday’s game at Boston as the only remaining winless team in baseball, rode Jeremy Bonderman’s strong pitching performance to a 7-2 victory last night. The Tigers, who mustered just 15 runs in their first seven games, easily set a season high for runs. On the downside, they’re still just 2-6 in their last eight on the road and 0-6 in their last six against right-handed starters.
The Red Sox have now dropped three of their last four. However, they’re still 58-32 at Fenway since the start of the 2007 season (55-25 as a home favorite), and they’re 18-6 in their last 24 home games against Detroit. Additionally, Terry Francona’s club has won five straight games against left-handed starters.
Robertson, who went 9-13 with a 4.76 ERA in 30 starts in 2007, got pounded Friday in his season opener, allowing five runs on seven hits in five innings in an 8-5 loss to the Chicago White Sox. He is 2-3 with a 6.42 ERA in seven lifetime starts against Boston, winning at home and losing on the road in two outings last season.
Robertson was 4-9 with a 5.38 ERA in 14 starts on the highway last season, and the Tigers are 7-19 in his last 26 on foreign turf.
Wakefield, who went 17-12 with a 4.76 ERA in 31 starts last season, got a no-decision in his first start of 2008, allowing three runs on six hits in six innings as Boston lost 6-3 Friday at Toronto. The Red Sox are 1-4 in the veteran’s last five outings. However, Wakefield went 10-4 in 15 home starts in 2007, despite a beefy 5.27 ERA.
Wakefield is 13-10 with 4.50 ERA in 32 appearances (20 starts) against Detroit, and the Sox are 8-3 in his last 11 against the Tigers. However, in his lone start against Detroit last year, Wakefield got tagged for nine hits and five runs in a 7-2 home loss.
The first two games of this series have stayed under the total, making the under 8-2-1 in the last 11 series meetings. Also, for Detroit the under is on runs of 20-6-1 in Robertson’s road starts, 7-2 with Robertson as a road underdog, 7-2 against the A.L. East and 4-1 against right-handers. Also, the under is 22-8-1 in Wakefield’s last 31 starts when going on five days’ rest, but the over is 7-1 in his last eight home outings and 9-4 in his last 13 as a favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
NBA
Denver (47-31, 42-36 ATS) at Golden State (34-44 ATS)
Two teams battling for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference meet up when the Nuggets travel to Oracle Arena for a clash with the Warriors.
Denver beat the Clippers 117-99 Tuesday night, easily covering as a 12½-point road chalk. The victory halted an untimely two-game SU and ATS skid – with the losses coming to lowly Sacramento and Seattle. The Nuggets are 7-3 SU in their last 10 starts, but they are just 2-4 ATS in the last six (1-2 ATS on the road).
Golden State outgunned Sacramento 140-132 Tuesday but failed to cash as a 14-point home favorite for its second straight ATS setback. The Warriors, who are 5-5 SU in their last 10 starts, are on a 1-4 ATS slide.
These two teams met 12 days ago in Denver, with the Nuggets winning 119-112 but the Warriors cashing as an eight-point underdog. Denver is 2-1 SU and Golden State is 2-1 ATS in three contests this year. The Nuggets, who prevailed 124-120 at Golden State catching five points in December, are 7-3 SU in the last 10 meetings, but the two teams have split the cash during this stretch.
The Nuggets sport positive pointspread trends of 11-5 overall, 9-2 on Thursday, 8-3 on one day of rest, 5-2 on road trips and 7-3 after a spread-cover. However, they are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 as a dog of five to 10½ points and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 against the Pacific Division.
The Warriors are on ATS streaks of 5-0 as a chalk of five to 10½ points and 10-4 on Thursday, but the rest of their ATS trends are negative, including 6-15 at home, 5-14 as a home favorite, 2-6 against the Northwest Division, 9-29 after a SU win and 8-17 on one day of rest.
The “over” trends run wild for both these high-scoring teams. For Denver, the over is on hot streaks of 19-7 overall, 5-1 as a road ‘dog, 15-5 after an ATS win, 8-3 after a SU win and 10-4 on the highway. For Golden State, the over is on runs of 4-1 at home, 10-3 on Thursday, 17-6-1 after a SU win and 13-6 on one day of rest. Finally, the over is 10-4 in the last 14 series meetings overall and 6-1 in the last seven at Golden State.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GOLDEN STATE and OVER
Utah (52-26, 43-35 ATS) at Dallas (49-29, 34-40-4 ATS)
The Jazz aim to shore up their playoff seeding when they head to the American Airlines Center to face the Mavericks, who are trying to hold off Denver and Golden State in the Western Conference playoff chase.
Utah shut down New Orleans 77-66 Tuesday as a 5½-point road pup for its fourth consecutive SU and ATS victory. The Jazz are on a 15-4 tear in their last 19 games, going 13-6 against the number during that stretch.
Dallas bested lowly Seattle 99-83 Tuesday but couldn’t cover the heavy 18-point spread at home, halting a four-game ATS winning streak. The Mavericks are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five starts, following an ugly six-game stretch in which they went 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS.
Utah is 2-1 SU and ATS this season against Dallas, with both wins coming at home, including a 116-110 victory laying 5½ points on March 3. In the lone meeting in Dallas, the Mavericks prevailed 125-117 in December, also as a 5½ point chalk. Utah is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six clashes in this series, but Dallas is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings at home. In fact, the host is on a 19-7-1 ATS roll in this rivarly.
The Jazz are on positive ATS runs of 4-0 against the Southwest Division, 5-1 after a SU win, 5-1 as a road ‘dog, 7-2 on one day of rest, 20-7 against winning teams and 19-7 against the West. Their lone negative: They’re 3-10 ATS in their last 13 outings on Thursdays.
The Mavericks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after a SU win and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 on one day of rest, but they harbor negative pointspread trends of 3-7 against winning teams, 2-5 as a favorite, 5-16-1 on Thursday, 1-5 at home and 1-5 after a non-cover.
For Utah, the under is on an 8-1-1 spree against the Southwest Division, but the over is 5-2 in its last seven starts overall, 29-11 in their last 40 as a ‘dog of up to 4½ points and 41-20 in their last 61 as a road pup of less than five points. For Dallas, the under is on runs of 4-1 overall, 5-1 overall, 7-1 as a favorite, and 10-1 as a favorite of less than five points.
However, the over is 4-1 in the last five clashes overall and 4-0 in the past four battles in Dallas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS
NHL DUNKEL
Dallas at Anaheim
The Stars limped down the stretch, dropping six of their last nine games, and open against an Anaheim team that went 27-13-0 at home this season. The Ducks are the pick (-165) according to Dunkel, which has Anaheim favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-165). Here are all of today's games.
THURSDAY, APRIL 10
Game 9-10: Nashville at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 11.412; Detroit 11.737
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-260); 5
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-260); Under
Game 11-12: Boston at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 11.021; Montreal 11.705
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-200); Under
Game 13-14: Dallas at Anaheim
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.584; Anaheim 12.015
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-165); 5
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-165); Under
NBA DUNKEL
Utah at Dallas
The Mavericks have won four of their last five, but run into a Utah team tonight that has won four straight and seven of its last eight. The Jazz are the underdog pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has Dallas favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Utah (+4). Here are all of today's games.
THURSDAY, APRIL 10
Game 501-502: Denver at Golden State
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 121.587; Golden State 126.966
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 5 1/2; 235 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 5; 240
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-5); Under
Game 503-504: Utah at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 125.894; Dallas 127.014
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 4; 199
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+4); Under
Game 505-506: LA Lakers at LA Clippers
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 123.171; LA Clippers 109.193
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 14; 215
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 15 1/2; 208 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (+15 1/2); Over
MLB DUNKEL
Minnesota at Chicago White Sox
The Twins were able to rough up Chicago pitching yesterday in a 12-5 win and turn around to face Jose Contreras, who allowed 10 hits, 10 walks and four earned runs in five innings of work against Detroit last week. Minnesota starter Livan Hernandez has been sharp, picking up two wins in each of his starts with a 3.86 ERA. The Twins are the underdog pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has Minnesota favored straight up by 1. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+130). Here are all of today's games.
THURSDAY, APRIL 10
Game 901-902: Cincinnati at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Harang) 14.987; Milwaukee (Villanueva) 15.530
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-115); Under
Game 903-904: Atlanta at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hudson) 14.484; Colorado (Francis) 15.199
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+100); Under
Game 905-906: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Hill) 15.003; Pittsburgh (Morris) 14.694
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-135); Over
Game 907-908: Florida at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Hendrickson) 14.969; Washington (Perez) 13.882
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+115); Over
Game 909-910: Philadelphia at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Eaton) 14.500; NY Mets (Maine) 15.708
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-150); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-150); Under
Game 911-912: St. Louis at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.841; San Francisco (Correia) 14.131
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-130); Under
Game 913-914: Seattle at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Batista) 15.035; Tampa Bay (Jackson) 14.242
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-135); 10
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+125); Under
Game 915-916: Detroit at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Robertson) 13.919; Boston (Wakefield) 15.040
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-140); 10
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-140); Under
Game 917-918: Oakland at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Eveland) 15.678; Toronto (Marcum) 16.340
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Toronto (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-140); Over
Game 919-920: Baltimore at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Loewen) 15.354; Texas (Millwood) 15.735
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-145); 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-145); Over
Game 921-922: Minnesota at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Hernandez) 15.720; White Sox (Contreras) 14.740
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+130); Over
Game 923-924: NY Yankees at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pettitte) 15.054; Kansas City (Bale) 15.586
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+140); Under
Steve Merril
Florida Marlins @ Washington Nationals
PICK: Over
Two underrated offensive lineups that are going against a couple of the weakest left-handed starters in baseball tonight. This game is priced as if it is being played in old RFK stadium, but the Nationals’ new home is much more hitter friendly as evident by the 17 and 14 total runs scored the past two nights.
Both starting pitchers this evening only have a job in this league because they are left-handed, and Washington’s Odalis Perez is far removed from his best years, with ERA’s of 5.57 and 6.20 and opponents’ batting averages of .320 and .318 the last two seasons.
Florida’s Mark Hendrickson never had glory years and has a career ERA of 5.03. Both hurlers are on pace for similar numbers through two starts this season as Hendrickson has an awful 6.10 ERA with a 1.74 WHIP, while Perez has a 6.00 ERA with a 1.89 WHIP.
Lee Kostroski
Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: Atlanta Braves
Both the Braves and the Rockies are off to disappointing starts to the 2008 season but Atlanta has been a victim of two extra-innings losses and three one-run losses this season. The Rockies have more to be concerned with having scored 16 runs in just eight games and seeing significant struggles in the pitching staff. Heading into Wednesday, the Rockies were tied with the Giants for the worst team batting average in baseball at .221. Atlanta is averaging 5.5 runs per game and is displaying solid power numbers despite the early season losses.
Rockies ace Jeff Francis has had a terrible start to the season, allowing 12 hits and five runs in his lone official start. Francis was down 5-1 against St. Louis on opening day before rain saved him and the Rockies from another loss. Francis has allowed ten runs in his past three starts against the Braves are a team that has had great success against left-handed pitching with a .282 team average thus far in 2008.
Tim Hudson has allowed just nine hits in two starts this season, giving the Braves a win in his last start against the potent Mets offense. Atlanta is 14-6 in Hudson’s last 20 starts and he owns a WHIP of just 0.69 through his first two starts this season. Atlanta had the fifth best road record in the National League last season and the Braves have been playing much better ball than the Rockies despite similar records.
VEGAS SPORTS PICS
Colorado (Francis) - 105* Atlanta (Hudson)
Colorado is 10-3 last 13 Francis home starts. Rockies, who have won last three Francis starts versus Atlanta, are 9-4 last 13 home meetings.
Pittsburgh (Morris) + 125* over Cubs (Hill)
Cubs are 5-10 last 15 Hill road starts, including 0-2 at Pittsburgh. Cubs have won the first two games of this set, both coming in extra innings.
Big Al Mcmordie
Game: Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks
Prediction: Dallas Mavericks
Reason: At 8:35 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over the Utah Jazz. Jerry Sloan's men have the biggest disparity this season between their home and road records. At Energy Solutions Arena, Utah is a sparkling 35-4, but on the road the Jazz have not been in tune, with a 17-22 SU and 16-23 ATS record. Dallas is 32-7 SU at home this season, and catch Utah off back-to-back huge wins over the Spurs and Hornets. Utah is 16-34 ATS away from home off back to back wins, and we'll fade the Jazz tonight on Thursday. Take Dallas.
Jimmy The Moose
Game: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Chicago Cubs
Reason: The first two games in the series have gone into extra innings and the bullpens are worn out. Rich Hill will be on the mound for the Cubs and they have won 8 of his last 11 starts. In his last 5 starts coming off a quality start the Cubs are 4-1. Morris takes the mound for the Pirates and with a tired pen he will have to eat up several innings. The Pirates are 2-5 in his last 7 starts overall and in his last 7 starts as an underdog. Prior to last night marathon the Cubs had won 4 straight meetings and will take this one too. Play on the Chicago Cubs -.
James Patrick Sports
Lakers vs. Clippers
The crosstown rivals tip it off at the Staples Center in Tinsel Town on Thursday Night in front of the TNT Cameras. The Clippers are not very efficient on their home court as they have lost 11 of 13 here and we like our Thursday selection on Los Angeles Lakers in NBA action.
Dave Cokin
Reds @ Brewers
Play: Brewers -110
Aaron Harang has developed into a legit top of the rotation starter for the Reds. But he's had difficulty with the lineup he'll be facing Thursday in Milwaukee and Harang is less effective in day games as a rule. Carlos Villanueva had a good spring and was decent in his first start, and I'm going to side with him here. Brewers to top the Reds.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Texas w/Millwood
Note: Rangers close out a three-game home stand against the Orioles behind the serves of Kevin Millwood in Arlington this evening. Millwood has enjoyed hurling against the Birds as evidenced by his 8-2 career team start record with a 3.49 ERA, including 4-0 with a 1.74 ERA at home the last three seasons. Look for more of the same here tonight.
VEGAS EXPERTS TIP OF THE DAY
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates have to be deflated after losing back-to-back extra inning affairs, particularly Wednesday's loss that saw them rally in the 14th only to lose by a pair of runs the next inning. That was Chicago's fourth straight win and the Cubbies have had little difficulty knocking around Pittsburgh pitching, scoring 16 runs in two games and 28 over their last four. That will be more than enough for southpaw Rich Hill, a hurler always involved in Unders.
Play on: Chicago Cubs
EZWINNERS
MLB
2 STAR: (906) PITTSBURGH (+$133) over Chicago
(Listing Morris and Hill)
(Risking $200 to win $266)
2 STAR: (906) MINNESOTA (+$131) over Chicago
(Listing Hernandez and Contreras)
(Risking $200 to win $262)
2 STAR: (915) DETROIT (+$127) over Boston
(Listing Robertson and Wakefield)
(Risking $200 to win $254)
2 STAR: (911) ST. LOUIS (-1.5)(+$125) over San Francisco
(Listing Wainwright and Correia)
(Risking $200 to win $250)
1 STAR: (924) KANSAS CITY (+$144) over NY Yankees
(Listing Bale and Pettitte)
(Risking $100 to win $144)
Insider Sports Report
4* St. Louis (Wainwright) -130 over San Francisco (Correia)
Range -110 to -145
3* L.A. Clippers +16 over L.A Lakers (NBA)
Range +17.5 to +14
3* Utah/Dallas (NBA) OVER 200.5
Range 199 to 202.5
DCI
NBA
GOLDEN STATE 121, Denver 118
DALLAS 103, Utah 102
L.A. Lakers 110, L.A. Clippers 97
WILD BILL
Under 9 AZ-Dodgers (5 units)
Over 10 Reds-Brewers (1 unit)
Braves -120 (5 units)
Over 8 1/2 Padres-Giants (5 units)
Over 9 1/2 Indians-Angels (1 unit)
Under 10 Tigers-Red Sox (2 units)
Tigers +110 (5 units)
Texas -150 (3 units)