Trev Rogers
Mets Over
Milw
Cle
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -130
(listing Lilly)
After starting the season 0-2 with an ERA near 10, we know that Lilly is due for a solid outing today at home against a Reds team that is struggling. The Reds are 0-5 in their last 5 overall, 1-7 in their last 8 road games vs. a left-handed starter, and 2-8 in their last 10 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 home games, 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series, 13-3 in their last 16 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game, 20-6 in their last 26 vs. National League Central, and 23-8 in their last 31 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Pound the Cubbies!
Wunderdog
Game: Houston at Philadelphia
Pick: Houston +159
It has been a very suspect start of the '08 season for Brett Myers. He has been touched up for five HRs in just 18 innings of work, and his ERA is a stout five. Myers has had difficulty with his role as starter, then reliever, then starter again. His last eight starts have lead to the Phillies going 1-7, and his ERA is a ridiculous 6.02. He has also allowed 11 HRs in just 46 innings. Most forget that Brandon Backe has pitched to an ERA in the 3's over all his appearances the last three years. Going back to last September he has allowed an average of two runs over his last eight starts. Like the value in these odds and will back the Stro's here.
USA Sports Consulting
Boston (J.Beckett) -122
Anthony Russo
New York Yankees +115
Winners Edge
MLB
Atlanta Braves RL -1.5 Even , 2 Units
Houston Astros RL +1.5 -135, 2 Units
NY Yankees +115 , 2 Units
Donald Tran
Boston at New York Under 9
Jennifer Barry
Texas at Toronto Under 9
Chad Jordan
Cleveland Indians -120
Money Lock Of The Day
Junior's Pick
Cubs -135
Digger's Pick
Cardinals -107
Will Sykes
2* Tampa Bay Rays +120
SportsKingz
MLB
ST. LOUIS -115
CLEVELAND -130
L.A. ANGELS -175
SPORTS ADVISORS
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Detroit (5-10) at Cleveland (5-10)
Two struggling teams that were thought to contend for the A.L. Central crown conclude their brief two-game series at Progressive Field, with the Indians’ Fausto Carmona (1-1, 2.20) set to oppose Tigers ace Justin Verlander (0-2, 6.52).
Detroit pounded out a 13-2 victory on Wednesday for its third consecutive victory after starting the season 2-10. With the victory, the Tigers improved to 3-4 on the road this year and snapped a five-game losing skid to the Indians dating to 2007. Meanwhile, Cleveland has lost three in a row and six out of eight, going 1-5 during its current homestand. The two clubs share last place in the A.L. Central.
The Indians are 10-3 in Carmona’s last 13 starts, but just 1-2 this year. That includes Saturday’s ugly 7-3 home loss to the A’s, when the right-hander gave up three runs on two hits and eight walks, lasting just 3 1/3 innings. Prior to that contest, Cleveland had won eight straight Carmona starts at home, including a 7-2 victory over the White Sox on April 2 when Carmona gave up just a run on four hits and four walks in seven innings en route to a 7-2 win.
Carmona is 3-2 with a 3.35 ERA in eight appearances (five starts) against the Tigers over the past two seasons. Last year, he faced Detroit at home twice, giving up five runs in six innings and getting a no-decision in a 12-11 Indians win and allowing two runs (one earned) in eight innings in a 5-2 victory.
Verlander has gotten off to a very rough start, giving up 19 runs (15 earned) over three outings spanning 19 1/3 innings. On Saturday at Chicago, he went 7 2/3 innings and got charged for six runs on four hits and four walks in a 7-0 loss. Last year, the Tigers ace went 8-3 with a 3.57 ERA in 15 road starts, but he got hammered in two outings in Cleveland, going 0-2 with an 11.81 ERA, as he allowed seven runs in each start, lasting a combined 10 2/3 innings.
Going back to 2006, the Tigers are 1-5 in Verlander’s last six starts against the Tribe. For his career, the veteran right-hander is 3-5 with a 6.84 ERA in nine starts versus his division rival
The over is 6-0 in Verlander’s last six starts against Cleveland and 5-0 in Carmona’s last five starts overall. However, the under is 3-1-1 in Carmona’s five starts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Boston (9-7) at N.Y. Yankees (9-7)
Red Sox ace Josh Beckett (1-1, 6.35) opposes the Yankees’ Mike Mussina (1-2, 4.15) for the second time in five days as these bitter rivals conclude their two-game set at Yankee Stadium.
Beckett got the best of Mussina in Saturday’s 4-3 victory at Fenway Park, which jump-started Boston’s four-game winning streak that ended with Wednesday’s 15-9 loss in New York. Meanwhile, the Yankees have won three in a row for the first time this season, and they’re on a 46-20 roll at home (5-3 this year).
These teams have split their four meetings this season, but New York is still 10-4 in the last 14 battles overall, including 5-0 in the Bronx.
Beckett followed up a rough season debut at Toronto (five runs in 4 2/3 innings) with a quality effort against New York on Saturday, giving up three runs on five hits and one walk in 6 2/3 innings. Including that contest, the Red Sox are 26-10 in Beckett’s last 36 starts overall. Also, Beckett is now 5-3 despite a beefy 6.24 ERA in nine career starts against the Yanks, including 2-2 with a 6.86 ERA over four starts in New York.
Although he struggled at Toronto 10 days ago, Beckett was dynamite on the road last year, going 11-2 with a 2.18 ERA. Boston has won 20 of his last 28 outings as a visitor.
Mussina was charged with four runs on eight hits over 5 2/3 innings in getting tagged with Saturday’s loss at Fenway. In two home starts this year, he is 1-1 with a 3.09 ERA, beating Tampa Bay 6-1 while losing to Toronto 5-2.
The Yankees are 0-4 in Mussina’s last four starts against Boston going back to 2006, with Mussina registering a 6.94 ERA during this stretch. For his career, the right-hander is 19-16 with a 3.70 ERA in 53 outings against the BoSox.
The under is 3-1 in Mussina’s last four outings versus Boston and 3-0 in his three starts this year. However, the over is 6-3 in Beckett’s last nine starts against the Yankees (2-2 at Yankee Stadium) and 6-2 in Mussina’s last eight at home.
Even though Wednesday’s game flew over the posted total, the under is still 12-4 in Yankee games this year, including 6-2 in the Bronx. Also, the under is 6-4 in the last 10 series meetings (2-2 this year) and 5-2 in the last seven clashes at Yankee Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Rocky Atkinson
Colorado @ San Diego
Play On: 1* San Diego -160
San Diego is 5-1 after a loss this year. Colorado is scoring only 4 runs per game overall this year, 4.1 runs per game on the road this year and 3.8 runs per game against right handed starters this season. Francis is 0-2 with a 9.53 ERA overall this year and 0-1 with a 12.60 ERA on the road this year. Peavy is 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA overall this year and 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA at home this season. Francis is 5-10 with a 5.83 ERA overall vs San Diego since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on San Diego tonight!
Bob Balfe
Tampa Bay Rays
LT Profits
Washington Capitals @ Philadelphia Flyers Under 5.5
The Washington Capitals and the Philadelphia Flyers have gone Over in two of the first three games of this series, but we expect tonight’s game to closely resemble Game 2, which was won by Philadelphia 2-0.
Game 3 got out of hand early when the Flyers scored three goals in the first period, putting the Capitals in an offensive posture in the early stages. With their playoff lives virtually on the line here, we look for Washington to be more defensive at the outset, knowing they could ill afford to fall behind early with a possible 3-1 series deficit staring them in the face.
It is not as if the Capitals can’t play defense, as they allowed three goals or less in each of their last seven regular season games including allowing two goals or less in five of them, and they were certainly stingy in that 2-0 loss in Game 2. In fact, the Under is surprisingly 45-37 in all Washington games this year, as the presence of Alexander Ovechkin has probably in inflated their totals a bit.
Speaking of Ovechkin, the Flyers have done an amazing job of shutting him down this series, and tonight may be another struggle for him as Flyers defenseman Kimmo Timonen will be playing after leaving Game 3 early with a shoulder injury. Besides shutting down Ovechkin, the Flyers have gotten some nice goaltending from Marty Biron in this series, whose shutout in Game 2 was his sixth of the year.
Thus, we look for both teams to be defensive-minded for at least the first period, and probably longer for the Flyers as they continue to concentrate of stopping Ovechkin. Thus, as long as the Flyers don’t get any cheap early goals, we do not see these teams exceeding five combined goals tonight.
Pick: Capitals, Flyers Under 5.5
Washington Nationals +150
The New York Mets have taken the first two games of this series, but we are looking for the underdog Washington Nationals to avoid the sweep here.
This could be considered more of a play against Mets starter Nelson Figueroa, who does not merit this much favoritism over anyone. Yes he pitched well in his Mets debut as a starter, allowing two runs and only two hits in six innings, but keep in mind that was his first start in four years. We simply do not trust him at this big price at this point in time.
Granted, Nationals starter John Lannan got bombed by the Atlanta Braves in his last start after pitching well in his seasonal debut. However, we still consider the starting pitching matchup here a wash, which immediately makes Washington worth a look as big dogs. We expect both bullpens to get called on fairly early here, and the Nats have the deeper pen in our opinion.
The Nationals gave the Mets fits last season, in fact sweeping a three-game series here at Shea Stadium during the New Yorkers’ incredible choke at the end of the year, and we look for the Nats to salvage a game in this series at a very nice price.
Pick: Nationals +150
LARRY NESS 24*
LA Angels
ATS Hockey Lock Club
4 units Flyers
3 units Stars
Jeff Money
(NHL) DAL -125 (POD)
(MLB) CARDS -110
(MLB) INDIANS -115
(MLB) WHITESOX EV
EZWINNERS
MLB
1 STAR: (965) DETROIT (+$114) over Cleveland
(Listing Verlander only)
(Risking $100 to win $114)
1 STAR: (951) TAMPA BAY (+$105) over Minnesota
(Listing Hammel and Bonser)
(Risking $100 to win $105)
1 STAR: (961) COLORADO (+$171) over San Diego
(Listing Francis only)
(Risking $100 to win $171)
1 STAR: (976) OAKLAND (-$105) over Seattle
(Listing Dinardo and Silva)
(Risking $105 to win $100)