Vegas Runnner
2* TEXAS RANGERS -112
Big Al
At 8:35 pm, our Eastern Conference Playoffs Game of the Year is on the Detroit Pistons plus the points over Boston. The Celtics won the always-critical Game 1, with a 9-point win over the Pistons, and have started out the post-season with a 9-0 record at the TD Banknorth Garden. But this will be a difficult game for Doc Rivers' crew to win, as Detroit has been thru many of these wars before, and the Pistons are an awesome 13-5 ATS their last 18 off a loss of 7+ points. Also, going back to May 21, 1992, .622 (or better) underdogs of more than 2 points are a virtually-perfect 12-1-2 ATS off a loss in the opening game of the Conference finals. Take Detroit.
Erin Rynning
MLB Kansas City
MLB Playmaker: San Diego Under 7
John Ryan
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Philadelphia – This offense is starting to come together and now Ryan Howard has hopefully turned the corner after a horrendous start. What is not mentioned many times is that Philadelphia is a very strong base running team. So far this season, the Phillies have 29 stolen bases and have only been caught 6 time. Their 82.9% stolen base rate is best in the NL and 2nd in MLB (BOS: 85.1%, 40 SB, 7 CS). Last year, the Phillies set a ML record for stolen base % at 87.9, stealing 138 bases in 157 attempts (19 CS). The entire pitching staff as a whole – Myers notwithstanding – have been a strong presence in this year’s Phillies edition. The Phillies have a 3.99 ERA, which is 6th-best among all NL teams. Their starting pitchers have logged the T-2nd-most innings (275.0) among NL staffs with SD (STL – 289.2) and they have 24 quality starts (min. 6.0 IP, 3 ER or less), which is 6th-highest total among NL teams. Cole Hamels has 6, Jamie Moyer and Kyle Kendrick have 5 each and Adam Eaton and Brett Myers have 4… The Phillies’ bullpen has the lowest ERA (2.86) among all 30 MLB clubs and 3rd-lowest opponents’ batting average (.228 – lowest in NL). Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 37-17 and has made 27 units since 1997. Play on NL road dogs with a money line of +100 to +150 that is a good offensive team scoring >=4.8 runs/game on the season and after a win by 10 runs or more. Take Philadelphia.
Bryan Leonard
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: Pittsburgh Pirates
On the surface this looks like a game featuring two struggling starters, but a closer look shows the host to be in a far better position than the visitor. Tom Gorzelanny gets the start today for the Pirates and his 6.64 ERA leaves a lot to be desired. But upon closer inspection we find a hurler who has really struggled against one team this year while pitching very well against the rest. The problem for the young lefty is that he has faced the Chicago Cubs three times in 2008. In those three starts he has gone 11 innings and allowed 21 earned runs. Needless to say he doesn't match up well with the Cubs. But in his other starts Gorzelanny has pitched 29.2 innings and permitted only nine earned runs. That's a 2.73 ERA against anyone other than Chicago.
His opponent tonight is Randy Bush and he doesn't have an excuse for his 6.05 ERA. He has produced just two quality starts in his eight starts this season. It has been a long standing problem for the righty as last year in 31 starts he had a 5.12 ERA which is horrendous in any league but especially in the National League where pitchers get to swing the bat.
The line on today's game is based on Gorzelanny's year to date record, not considering his problems with the Cubs. Therefore we take advantage of a mispriced line with a team hungry to avoid a home sweep.
PLAY PITTSBURGH
Paul Leiner
200* NBA Over 172 Det/Bos
25* MLB Yankees -150
10* MLB Over 9.5 Det/Sea
5* MLB Twins -115 comp
Mike Rose
Royals/Red Sox Under 9 2*
JB Sports
2* Pistons
Wunderdog
Arizona at Florida
Pick: Florida +124
The D-Backs are getting all the ink, running out fast in the West, but the reality is that the Marlins are just 1.5 games off their pace. They became the first to hand Brandon Webb a loss yesterday, and you have to know they will be a confident group tonight. As good as the D-Backs have been they are just 9-10 on the road - so very mediocre. Playing a team that has played on an equal level at home certainly shows lots of value to the home side. The D-Backs are just 5-5 in Dan Haren's starts and have yet to win one on the road with him on the mound. Justin Miller has a winning career record as a starter, and the Marlins find ways to get it done and as a home dog, we have to back them here.
Winning Points Online MLB.
THURSDAY, MAY 22
LA Angels (Saunders) +110 over Toronto (A. Burnett)
Joe Saunders became a critical factor for the L.A. rotation when John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar went down, and he has not disappointed. The Angels' lone starting southpaw checks in showing a fat profit in his 9 starts (+$720) and an impressive 2.48 ERA.
The Blue Jays have not performed well vs. lefties (-$420, 2.8 runs per game) and their starter A.J. Burnett has beenless than imposing (4.48 ERA). The visitor has posted a modest profit on the road (+$140) and will build on it with a victory tonight.
Winning Points Online Ultra
**PREFERRED
UNDER 9
Kansas City at Boston
Today's lone ''under'' qualifier comes in a situation where both sides are traveling afterwards -- Boston to Oakland, Kansas City to Toronto. That means the umpires are headed elsewhere, too. Everyone's outta here, pronto! Plus, the game will be played under a forecast for rain showers throughout. Let's move this thing along, people! Given the wet conditions and day game following a night game, there will be either no batting practice, or curtailed batting practice. Bannister and D-Matz have lower-than-average WHIPs of 1.39 and 1.23. D-Matz has had accuracy issues (32 walks, 46 strikeouts) but his control figures to be ''flawless'' today!
Winning Points Online NBA.
**PREFERRED
Boston* over Detroit by 10
Forgot one important thing prior to Game 1 of this series: Detroit's coach. Even Doc Rivers is better. All that extra time, to come out with no clue. Zig-Zag Theory people will be happy to send it in on the Pistons, figuring they will be "more focused" and make the right "adjustments." Yeah, right. And the Celtics won't be as focused and come out with a different team or something? BOSTON, 90-80.
Terron Chapman
Detroit Pistons vs. Boston Celtics
Play: Boston Celtics
As mentioned before Game 1, Chauncey Billups health is vital to the chances of the Pistons. And if he continues to struggle like in game 1 it could be a long series for Detroit and their backers.
We'll play on the Celtics once again in a favorable spot this evening. A big reason is they are still at home where they've gone 9-0 SU this postseason. Including the regular season Boston has won 15 straight at home going 12-3 ats in the process. The Celtics have played like a number one seed at home in the playoffs and feed off of the home court advantage more so than other teams. We can expect maximum effort again tonight.
What can we make of the Pistons chances if Chauncey can't play up to his all-star level? Not much. We have to remember that the Celtics took two of three from the Pistons in the regular season with a healthy Billups. The Pistons have trouble matching up with the Celtics as well. Sheed allowed Garnett to do what he wanted to do in the paint and Tayshaun Prince becomes a non-factor because of his defensive assingment of guarding Paul Pierce. Chauncey Billups is crucial and with him not at 100% to begin the series, I see it being difficult for the Pistons to prevail here.
The Pistons have been one of the NBA's elite teams for the last 5-8 years so it would be foolish to dismiss them just yet. However until we see some improvement from Billups and adjustments by Flip Saunders and his staff we still must be cautious in backing them. The Pistons are just 1-7 their last 8 road games as a pup. And with the Celtics playing the way they are at home we can feel comfortable in laying the points here once again.
Play on the Boston Celtics for 2 units.
Oscarxena Sports
Philadelphia -18 (AFL) 3 Units
I have very rarely this year used an Arena Football League play but I like Philadelphia tonight to win rather easily although this is a big spread to cover. Philadelphia has a chance to clinch a playoff berth with a win tonight and although they should win the question is whether or not they will cover tonight. Kansas City on the road this year is 0-4 and only 1-3 ATS but in their last two road games they were defeated by Grand Rapids by a score of 72-38 and then defeated by Utah 67-50. The interesting thing about these two squads is that Grand Rapids is only 3-8 this year and Utah is 2-10. Philadelphia is 10-2 on the year and a perfect 6-0 at home and I think we are getting a little bit of line value as Philly has struggled in recent weeks while KC has been playing well but they have been home. I will call for a 28 point Philadelphia win and an easy cover this evening.
Michael Cannon
30 Dime
PISTONS
Take the points with the Pistons tonight in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals over the Celtics.
I really believe the Pistons are going to win this game outright. They had a week off before Game 1, so there’s no surprise in them losing after the Celtics’ series had gone seven games.
Now that the Pistons have a game under their belts, I expect a more even game tonight.
Think about it. The Celtics not only won, but covered the spread in the first game and the line dropped for Game 2.
What does that tell you?
Detroit is 12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games going back to the regular season. They are 4-0 ATS after a SU loss, 5-1 ATS on one day of rest and 4-1 ATS after a non-cover.
You can’t begrudge the Celtics success at home during these playoffs, but sooner or later they’re going to face a team that steals one on their home court.
This Pistons team is more than capable of doing that.
The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings and the underdog is on a 10-4 ATS tear in the last 14 matchups.
Take the points with the Pistons tonight, but don’t be surprised to see them pull off the outright win.
10 Dime
DIAMONDBACKS (With Haren as listed pitcher)
Take the Diamondbacks for the road win over the Marlins tonight.
The Marlins may have knocked Brandon Webb from the ranks of the unbeaten last night, but I don’t see them pulling off the series sweep tonight.
Marlins starters have one of the worst ERA’s in all of baseball, and Andrew Miller is one reason why. The left-hander is 3-3 with a 6.18 ERA on the year.
He’ll have to pitch a gem tonight to get the win with Dan Haren getting the nod for Arizona.
Haren is 5-2 on the year with a 3.14 ERA.
Although Florida is one of the surprise teams in baseball this year, I don’t see them pulling off the sweep over a Diamondbacks team that still boasts the NL’s best record.
Take the Diamondbacks for the road win.
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NY YANKEES with KENNEDY -155
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on Houston Astros -126
Houston is a solid choice at home with Roy Oswalt on the mound. Oswalt should enjoy seeing the Phillies in town since he is 6-1 with a 2.79 ERA in nine career games against them. Oswalt will look to lead the Astros to their 10th win in the last 14 games. His opponent, Kyle Kendrick, has been terrible on the road with a 5.68 ERA on the season. With Oswalt winning 6 of 7 career starts against the Phillies, you have to love his chances to get the job done at home tonight as just a small favorite. Cash in with Houston as the favorite.