TONY MATHEWS
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox
Selection: Chicago White Sox -1.5 Runs +130
Explanation: We will side with the Chicago White Sox -1.5 Runs as they face-off against the Kansas City Royals in Thursday's MLB contest.
The Kansas City Royals will use starting pitcher Gil Meche. Gil Meche has struggled this season. In fact, Gil Meche has a 5.35 ERA on the season. We see Gil Meche pitching another bad game today.
The Chicago White Sox will use starting pitcher Jose Contreras. Jose Contreras has pitched well this season. In fact, Jose Contreras has a 2.89 ERA on the season. In addition, Jose Contreras has a 1.71 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Jose Contreras pitching another great game today.
The Chicago White Sox are 41-14 in their last 55 meetings against the Kansas City Royals (when playing in Chicago), and should be able to get another blowout win tonight!
Take the Chicago White Sox -1.5 Runs!
SPORTS GAMBLING HOTLINE
Game One of the NBA Finals, and we feel the long layoff between each teams last playoff game is going to lead to an easy UNDER in Boston tonight.
The Lakers played ALL 5 of their Western Conference Finals games against San Antonio UNDER the posted total, and do come in having played UNDER in 6 of their last 8 games on the road.
The Celtics played UNDER the total in 4 of their 6 Eastern Conference Finals games against Detroit, and the lone regular season meeting played between these teams in Beantown during the regular season did hold UNDER the posted price.
LA has played UNDER the total their last 8 Thursday night games, while Boston is on an 8-3 UNDER run their last 11 games played under the Thursday night lights.
Take the LOW in Game One of the NBA Finals.
Play on the UNDER.
4* UNDER
JOHN FINA
Selection: Cleveland Indians -125
Today the Cleveland Indians will be on the road as they take on the Texas Rangers. We will side with the Cleveland Indians. One reason why we will side with the Cleveland Indians is because they will be sending to the mound the starting pitcher who has been pitching a lot better as of late. This says it all... The Cleveland Indians Starting Pitcher (C.C. Sabathia) has a 2.86 ERA in his last 3 starts, while Texas Rangers Starting Pitcher (Kevin Millwood) has a 7.45 ERA in his last 3 starts. As you can see, the Cleveland Indians will be sending to the mound the much better starting pitcher. In addition, the Cleveland Indians have proven they can beat the Texas Rangers (when playing in Texas). In fact, the Cleveland Indians are 7-2 in their last 9 meetings against the Texas Rangers (when playing in Texas). To say the least, the Cleveland Indians should be able to beat the Texas Rangers once again today! Take the Cleveland Indians!
JEFF BENTON
For Thursday, well stay in Beantown and play Boston once again as it tries for the three-game sweep against the Rays.
When you look at the price in this game a near pick-em its impossible not to side with the defending champs. Theyre now riding a 12-game home winning streak after Wednesdays 5-1 victory, and theyre an astonishing 23-5 at Fenway Park this season, including a perfect 5-0 against Tampa Bay. Four of those five wins over the Rays have come by exactly four runs, and the fifth was an eight-run rout. In fact, the home team has won all eight meetings between these rivals this season.
As for this pitching matchup of Bostons Jon Lester against Tampas James Shields, Im going to point to just three stats: Lester is 2-1 with a 2.72 ERA in six home starts (four of them Red Sox victories), including a no-hitter in his last outing at Fenway; Shields is 1-2 with a 6.04 ERA in five road games; and Shields got rocked in his last start at Fenway on May 3, when he gave up seven runs on 10 hits in 3 2/3 innings.
Throw in the fact that the Red Sox are a ridiculous 44-9 in their last 53 home games against the Rays, and this ones a no-brainer. Lay the small price with Boston.
5* RED SOX
MATT RIVERS
For Thursday take the price back with the Reds
Certainly Cole Hamels is a total stud and the Phillies overall are no joke with their three superstar in Utley, Howard and Rollins. But to get what may be a future star in Homer Bailey and a capable Reds team is enough for me here.
Yes I do know how this Cincinnati team struggles immensely on the road and are a lefty laden club that could have some trouble with a great southpaw in Hamels but the Philadelphia hurler was hit very hard in that last outing against Florida. Maybe he is getting a tired arm? Maybe he is in a bit of a rut? Even if this is a bit of wishful thinking at this price Dusty Baker's talented team is too good to pass up.
Griffey, Dunn, Bruce, Encarnacion, Phillips and the Reds with a young and possible stud hurler getting this much back is a no-brainer, win or lose.
If Hamels is on and shuts us down then so be it but we have too much to not give it a go and that's the bottom line!
John Ryan
G1 St. Louis Cardinals vs. G1 Washington Nationals
Play: OVER
Ai Simulator 3* graded play OVER St. Louis/Washington – (Game 1). STL batting a strong 275 with a 351 OBP against LH starters this season. Cardinals starter Wellemyer has strong flash stats, but he has struggled – like so many starters – in day games posting a 6.00 ERA and allowing 3 HR in just 12 innings of work. Washington starter Lannan has pitched well over his last 3 starts, but 2 of them were on the road where he pitches best. In 4 home starts he has a 6.63 ERA. STL is 191-145 OVER (+37.2 Units) versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game since 1997; 178-132 OVER (+37.3 Units) versus a NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse since 1997; 191-145 OVER (+37.2 Units) versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game since 1997. Take the OVER.
Alex Smart
St.Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals
Prediction: UNDER
Reason: Todd Wellemeyer (6-1,3.16 ERA) enters this contest in top form. The Cards right hander has been a work horse, going at least 6 innings in 10 of his 12 starts this season, and Im expecting nothing changes today against a light hitting Washington Nationals batting order that is averaging just .220 vs righties this season. His pitching opponent from the Nats, John Lannan(4-5,3.52 era), is another top quality hurler, that is pitching very well, allowing 2 or less runs in 6 of his L9 starts this season. His big problem is run support. Both hurlers are backed with capable , bullpens. Considering how well each of these throwers has been performing, it will be an easy decision to back this tilt to go under the number. Final notes & Key Trends: Washington is 10-2 UNDER in home games against right-handed starters this season, with the average combined score ringing in at 6.7 RPG. Washington is 16-3 L19 UNDER against NL squads with an on base percentage of .350 or better, with the average combined score clicking in at 6.7 RPG. Under is 15-3 L 18 meetings in Washington. Play UNDER
LT Profits
Toronto Blue Jays +150
The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees have split the first two games of this series, but we look for the Blue Jays to get to Chien-Ming Wang here and take the series rubber match at a great price.
Wang has simply not been himself lately with a 7.91 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in his last three starts, and the Jays are not the team he wants to face right now. This is because the Yankees are just 1-3 as a team in his last four starts vs. Toronto, and he is catching them just as they are starting to heat up offensively, averaging 5.00 runs per game while hitting .282 as a team over their last 10 games.
Meanwhile, we are very high on Dustin McGowan, who deserves a much better fate than his 4-4 record. McGowan has allowed three earned runs or less in 10 of his 12 starts this season, but like the rest of the Blue Jays staff, he suffered from a lack of run support the first couple of months of the season. That should no longer be the case, and McGowan has held his form well with a 2.79 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in his last three starts.
Finally, do not forget that Toronto still leads the American League with a 2.86 bullpen ERA, so look for them to spring the upset here.
Pick: Blue Jays +150
Baltimore Orioles +105
Only once this season has Garrett Olson of the Baltimore Orioles allowed more than three runs in a game, and we look for he and the Baltimore bullpen to lead them to victory over the Minnesota Twins this afternoon.
Olson is 4-1 with a deceptive 4.03 ERA and 1.42 WHIP overall. If you take away that lone loss vs. the Yankees where he was lit up for six earned runs on eight hits in 2.2 innings however, Olson has an excellent 2.77 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in his other six starts. The young southpaw should be doubly tough vs. a Minnesota lineup that has never faced him before. Also, once Olson is in need of relief, the Orioles are still ranked fourth in the American League with a nice 3.22 bullpen ERA.
The Twins have activated Scott Baker off of the Disabled list to take this start. Now we have always been rather high on Baker, but we admit that he has underperformed to this point in his brief career, and you never know what to expect from a pitcher making his first start off the shelf after being laid off for slightly over a month.
We would much rather take our chances with the healthier starter and the higher ranked bullpen here, especially at a small underdog price.
Pick: Orioles +105
WUNDERDOG
NBA
Game: Los Angeles Lakers at Boston
Pick: Boston -2.5
It could be the 80s again as the Celtics and the Lakers square at the Garden for the NBA Championship. After this one is over, these two teams will have combined for half of the 62 NBA Championships. The Celtics earned the homecourt advantage thanks to 66 wins in the regular season. And, that could be all the difference in this series. That advantage is a huge reason why they are even here. The Celtics have now gone 16-1 in their last 17 played at the Garden. Their road struggles have led the odds-makers to conclude that the Lakers are the better team. We are not sure if we agree with that, especially playing in Boston. Yes, the Lakers have the best player in the league. But, Boston has the better defense and a better balance across players. If one player struggles (i.e. Ray Allen), this team can still win because the talent is spread. Perkins and Garnett can slow down the finesse Gasol. Who is going to stop the three-headed monster? There are three players on this team that can beat you while the Lakers essentially have one. The Black Mamba can win games by himself but if he happens to be off (it does happen), the Lakers will not win. The Celtics give up 89.7 ppg while the Lakers give up 101 per game. Didn't someone once say that Defense Wins Championships? On the road the Lakers give up 101.4 while Boston allows 86.9 at home. Boston has only played three games all season at home including the playoffs where they were favored by 4 or less! They won all three of those games. The only meeting at the Garden vs the Lakers had the Celtics an 8-point favorite. Has Boston slipped that far? No. It's just that everyone is picking the "inevitable" Lakers to win this series. It's as if the press has already annointed Kobe the second-coming of Jordan and the Lakers as NBA Champs. So, all of a sudden this game is 5.5 points closer than that first one. We're not buying it. We see the value in this one on the Celtics. The Lakers, since the first round of the playoffs are just 2-3 on the road, and have been outscored by 27 points. The Spurs built a 20-point lead on them in the Lakers' house. Yes, the Lakers won that game, but it tell us that LA is not as inevitable, or as invulnerable, as the talking heads on ESPN would have you believe. This Celtics team is better than any team the Lakers have faced thus far. While it seems strange to call the top-seeded team with the best record in the NBA, and the best defense in the leauge, underrated, we feel Boston is not getting enough respect. The prognosticators said Detroit would despense of them. It didn't happen. Now everyone is picking the Lakers. We like the Celtics to win this game and cover this spread.
MLB
Game: Cleveland at Texas
Pick: Texas +1.5 runs -148
The line on C.C. Sabathia this season is improving, but overall not very good. Over the last three seasons he has been an average pitcher when pitching away from Cleveland, where he has just a .500 overall mark. This year the Indians are just 4-8 in his 12 starts, and 1-3 on the road. The Rangers have found the win column in four of Kevin Milwood's last five starts. The Rangers have gone 11-6 in their last 17 at home, and two of the six by a single run. That means they have been 13-4 against the +1.5 runline in their last 19. We will back them in this one at home.
Dave Malinsky 4*
St. Louis @ Washington Nationals
PICK: Under
A little rain does not change our plans for this one - while we lose a bit of line value since the marketplace now fully knows that Albert Pujols is out, we get the benefit of two bullpens that were over-worked on Tuesday now coming in completely fresh. So let’s repeat yesterday’s analysis for the rest -
Over the course of the season we have found it easy to get behind John Lannan, either as an Under or a Side play, and while we suffered a loss behind him in his last outing it was not his fault, as Washington fell at San Diego after being tied 2-2 in the 8th. Now we get a chance to step in again, with the scratching of Albert Pujols the final piece of the puzzle for this one.
Lannan has done an outstanding job of throwing strikes and getting ground balls, which does not bring a lot of sex appeal, but makes you a quality performer at this level, particularly against teams getting their first look. That will be the case tonight, with no Cardinal having more than four at-bats against him. And exacerbating the absence of Pujols for the Cardinals is that Rick Ankiel is on a 1-22 slide.
Lannan can not be backed to win, however, because he will get little or not offensive support. The Nationals have been nothing short of a disaster at the plate without Ryan ZImmerman and Dan Johnson, on top of already losing Austin Kearns, and with five key parts of their arsenal hitting .218 or worse right now that is not going to change. Todd Wellemer has become the latest Dave Duncan/Tony LaRussa project, working to a solid 6-1/3.16 through 74 innings, and as he grows in confidence as a starter we see him aggressively attacking the strike zone - just eight walks over 32 innings of his last five starts. And he has not allowed more hits than innings pitched over six straight starts. That form continues here against the weakest lineup in the game, and it helps to set the tone for a low-scoring affair.
JB's Computer Plays
Boston Red Sox - 120
Chicago White Sox -170 * * *
Chicago Cubs +105
Best Bet ***
Winners Edge-
NBA
Celtics/Lakers over 191.5 , 2 units
MLB
Pittsburgh Pirates -130 , 1 unit
Texas Rangers + 105 , 1 unit
Scott Ferrall
AL FREE B's FOR THURS
CLEVELAND -125 on ML over Texas--I'm on CC Sabathia tonight in Arlington. The Tribe bats are definitely heating up. They've won 2 of first 3 in this series. They scored the most runs of their season (15) Wednesday night and pounded out 17 hits. The Rangers team ERA of 5.10 is worst in the majors. They've surrendered 48 runs and 10 homers in the last four games.
Chicago -155 on ML over Kansas City--How can I take the Royals ? They've lost 10 straight on the road and the White Sox are going for the sweep tonight. Contreras is 3-0 in his last 5 outings with an impressive 1.54 ERA. He's gone at least 7 innings in 6 of last 7 starts. He's 8-4 in 15 starts vs KC. Meche is 3-1 in seven starts at Chicago. The White Sox are 15-8 at home.
NL FREE B's FOR THURS
CARDINALS -115 on ML over Nationals (Game 1)--Wellemeyer will have the Nats eating out of his hands. He's 6-1 and has won 4 straight. He's pitched at least 6 innings in 10 of his 12 starts. The Nats have been outscored 15-1 during their 3 game slide. TAKE THE UNDER 8 RUNS
Nationals (even odds) on ML over Cardinals--Redding gets the Nats off their losing streak and gets the split in the double-dip in DC. Mike Parisi got lit up by the Pirates last Saturday for 8 runs. TAKE THE OVER 9 RUNS
LOS ANGELES -115 on ML over Chicago--The Cubs dropped one in SD Wednesday night and Chad Billingsley beats them in the opener of their series at the Revine. The Dodgers have dropped 10 of 13 overall and are struggling miserably. Billingsley is 2-1 over his last 4 starts with a 1.00 ERA. He's allowed 2 runs or less in 6 of last 7 outings and he's got the second best ERA in the NL since April 30th. Ryan Dempster is tough as hell, but hasn't won the road yet this season. Chicago is 12-14 on the road this season but are still in first place and have the best record in baseba
Drew Gordon
Tampa Bay at BOSTON -120
Got to like the Red Sox in this spot, as they've dominated the D-Rays at Fenway this season, winning all 5 meetings (7 in a row going back to last season). Shouldn't come as too much of a surprise being the Sox are 44-9 over their last 53 meetings against Tampa Bay in Boston! More of the same tonight and here's why:
For as solid as James Shields has been at home, his numbers on the road leave a lot to be desired, going 1-2 with an ugly 6.04 ERA (over 4 runs higher than his ERA at home)! He got rocked in Oakland in his last start away, and before that one (you guessed it), he got rocked at Fenway for 7 run on 10 hits over just 3 2/3 innings (easily his worst start of the season). Give me one good reason why he turns it around tonight?!
Unfortunately for the D-rays, Shields is being opposed by Jon Lester, who not only was excellent in his only start against Tampa this season (1 run on 4 hits over 6 strong innings, but also has been downright nasty at Fenway, going 2-1 with a 2.72 ERA on the year! He's had a couple decent road starts since throwing the no-hitter against the Royals, but now back at Fenway, look for Lester to be truly on-point tonight.
Finally, there's no question both of these teams prefer playing on the home field, where they enjoy a tremendous advantage. That's good news for Boston, because they crush righties at home, batting .301 against them and averaging a healthy 5.7 runs in that spot. Bad news for the D-Rays, who are only 11-14 away this season, averaging only 3.5 runs per game against lefties on the year. In the end, the Red Sox add to their lopsided record against the D-Rays in Boston tonight.
Take Boston behind Lester over Tampa Bay and Shields in this MLB match up.
4* BOSTON
Chris Jordan
Chicago at LOS ANGELES -115
After watching The Professor toss 69 pitches in seven innings last night to baffle the Cubbies’ lineup, the Dodgers will catch them at the right time and duplicate the process by sending Chad Billingsley to the hill.
The right-hander has surrendered a mere two runs in 13 innings over his last two starts, and because he doesn’t have a win to show for his efforts, I like our chances even more. Billingsley allowed two runs, four hits and struck out seven in a 3-1 loss to Chicago on May 26, when Ryan Dempster was also on the hill.
He pitched well enough to win then, and did so again on Saturday, when he gave up four hits in seven scoreless frames of a 3-2 loss to the Mets.
Billingsley is 2-1 with an impressive 1.00 ERA in his last four starts, while he’s allowed two runs or less in six of his last seven outings. His 1.80 ERA since April 30 is second-best on the senior circuit.
We’ve made plenty of money with Dempster this season, but the fact is the right-hander is 0-2 with a 2.08 ERA in four road starts. Lay the chalk with the Dodgers tonight.
3* DODGERS