Sports Advisors
NBA FINALS
(1) Boston (14-9, 11-12 ATS) at (1) L.A. Lakers (13-5, 10-7-1 ATS)
The Lakers, who were barely able to get back on track in a must-win situation in Game 3, look to square this best-of-seven championship series when they host the Celtics for Game 4 at Staples Center.
Los Angeles held off Boston for an 87-81 home victory Tuesday night, but failed to cash as a heavy 9½-point home chalk. Kobe Bryant poured in 36 points and Sasha Vujacic added 20, but they were the only Lakers to reach double figures. However, only two Celtics reached double digits in scoring, as well, with Ray Allen scoring 25 and Kevin Garnett tallying 13, while Paul Pierce shot a dismal 2-for-14 and finished with just six points.
Boston, which had been horrible at the betting window through much of the playoffs, has cashed in four straight games and five of its last seven dating to the Eastern Conference finals against Detroit. Los Angeles, conversely, is 0-3 ATS in the Finals and has followed an 8-1-1 ATS run by going just 4-5 ATS in its last nine.
The Celtics are now 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS against the Lakers this season (2-0 ATS at Staples). Prior to covering the spread in the last five battles, Boston had gone 1-7 ATS against Los Angeles. Finally, the host is still 4-2 ATS in the last six head-to-head contests in this storied rivalry.
Despite Monday’s cover, Doc Rivers’ Celtics are still just 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS on the highway in the playoffs. But they are on positive pointspread runs of 5-0 against the Pacific Division, 12-2 against the Western Conference (5-0 last five), 4-1 on Thursday and a lengthy 25-11-1 in their last 37 games following a spread-cover. Boston is also 9-2 ATS this year as an underdog of three points or more.
The Lakers, who have won 15 consecutive home games going back to March 28, are 9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS in playoff games at Staples this year. They are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 at home dating to the regular season, 5-1 ATS in their last six on Thursday, 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 following a SU win and a solid 8-3-1 ATS in their past 12 when going on one day of rest. On the flip side, Los Angeles is mired in pointspread funks of 0-7-1 in the NBA Finals, 0-6 against the Eastern Conference, 0-4 against the Atlantic Division and 1-6 at home against teams with a winning road record.
Game 3 fell miles short of the 195½-point posted price, and the under is now 2-1 in this series. The total has alternated in each of the last six meetings between these teams, though the over is still 6-3 in the last nine clashes at Staples Center.
The under for Boston is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 6-0 on the highway, 4-1 on one day of rest and 4-1 on Thursday. For Los Angeles, the under streaks include 7-1 overall, 5-0 after a SU win, 5-0 on one day of rest, 4-0 at home and 10-1 in Thursday contests. That said, the over is 11-5 in the Lakers’ last 16 battles against Atlantic Division foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Philadelphia (39-28) at Florida (36-29)
The Phillies, who are looking to avoid a three-game sweep in South Beach, will hand the ball to 45-year-old left-hander Jamie Moyer (6-3, 4.56 ERA) at Dolphin Stadium, while the Marlins are set to go with 24-year-old left-hander Scott Olsen (4-2, 3.44).
Philadelphia arrived in Miami with a four-game winning streak, but has dropped the first two games of this series by scores of 5-4 and 6-2. The Phillies are still 7-3 in their last 10 contests (4-2 on the road), and they continue to lead the pesky Marlins by two games in the N.L. East.
Florida has followed up a 2-8 slump by winning four of its last five, all at home, where the Fish sport a 22-14 record this season.
These two teams are finishing off their second series of the year, and the Marlins carry a 3-2 lead after Wednesday’s win. Philadelphia is 1-5 in its last six at Florida, but the Phils are on an 8-0 tear in Moyer’s last eight starts against the Marlins.
Moyer has been red-hot regardless of the opponent lately, helping the Phillies to five straight wins and a 6-1 record in his last seven outings, with the old-timer going 5-1 with one no-decision in that stretch. On Friday at Atlanta, he allowed two runs on five hits in 5 1/3 innings and left trailing 2-1, but the Phillies came back for a 4-3 win in 10 innings.
Moyer is 3-1 with a 3.41 ERA in six road outings this season, and he’s a perfect 8-0 with a 3.51 ERA in eight career starts against Florida, despite getting tagged for five runs on seven hits in seven innings 11 days ago at home. The Phillies gave him just enough offensive support in that one to take a 7-5 victory.
Olsen started the season with three wins and a no-decision, but he’s gotten a rash of no-decisions and just one win since April 20. On Saturday at home against Cincinnati, he allowed four runs on four hits – all in the sixth inning – to blow a 4-0 lead, but Florida put up three runs in the bottom of the ninth to claim an 8-7 win, giving Olsen six no-decisions in his last nine starts. On the bright side, Florida is 9-4 in Olson’s 13 outings this year, including 6-2 at home.
Olsen is 3-2 with a 3.12 ERA in eight home starts this year, but he’s 3-4 with a soaring 6.00 ERA in nine career starts against Philly. Last year, he faced the Phillies three times and posted a 6.91 ERA, but Florida won all three contests (all at home).
The Phillies sport a plethora of positive trends, winning 12 of their last 16 overall and going 7-1 against left-handed starters, 9-4 in roadies against lefties and 6-1 on Thursday. With Moyer on the mound, Philadelphia is on runs of 4-0 against winning teams, 5-1 on the highway, 21-5 against the National League East and 7-3 in the third game of a series.
The Marlins have been solid behind Olsen, going 10-4 in his last 14 overall since the end of 2007, 4-0 in his last four Thursday starts, 4-1 in his last five against winning teams, 7-2 in his past nine at home, and 5-2 in the third game of a series. In addition, Florida is 9-3 in its last 12 home games and 10-1 at home against winning teams, but the Marlins are still only 4-7 in their last 11 games against N.L. East foes.
The over is 6-1 in Moyer’s last seven starts overall, 5-0 in Olsen’s last five outings, 4-1 in Olsen’s last five at home and 39-9-2 in his last 41 outings on four days’ rest.
The under has cashed in the first two games of this series, but the over is still 36-16-1 in the last 53 clashes overall and 48-18-3 in the past 69 meetings in Florida. Also, the Marlins have “over” trends of 22-6-3 overall, 7-2 at home, 6-2-1 versus winning teams, 8-1-1 against left-handers, 5-0 in the third game of a series. However, the Phillies have stayed under the total in nine straight games, and the under is 5-0 in their last five against the N.L. East.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (33-33) at Oakland Athletics (35-30)
Left-hander Andy Pettitte (5-5, 4.99 ERA) will toe the slab for the Yankees when they face the A’s and struggling right-hander Joe Blanton (3-8, 4.15) in the rubber match of a three-game series at McAfee Coliseum.
The Yankees opened this series with Tuesday’s 3-1 victory, but Oakland bounced back with an 8-4 rout last night. Although the A’s are 2-3 in their last five, they’re 10-5 in their last 15 home contests. Meanwhile, New York is 5-3 in its last seven and has fallen back to .500 on the season.
Oakland is now 9-3 in the last 12 clashes with the Yanks, including 5-2 in the last seven at home. Moreover, the Yankees have dropped their last six games against the A’s with Pettitte throwing, and Pettitte is 0-4 in his last four outings at Oakland.
The Yanks have gone 3-1 in Pettitte’s last four starts, with the veteran winning the first two, then getting shellacked in the past two but still coming out with a pair of no-decisions. On Saturday in the Bronx against Kansas City, he gave up 10 runs – all earned – on 10 hits in 6 2/3 innings and left trailing 10-6 after the Royals’ five-run seventh. But New York put up six runs over the final three innings to win 12-11.
Pettitte is 4-2 with a 3.95 ERA in seven road starts this season, and he’s 8-5 with a 3.59 ERA in 17 career starts against Oakland.
Blanton is just 1-4 with two no-decisions in his last seven starts, getting tagged with a loss in his last two outings. On Friday against the Angels, he surrendered three runs on seven hits in seven innings, but the Athletics mustered just one run in a 3-1 home loss. Blanton has tossed at least six innings in his last five starts, but Oakland is just 1-4 in that span. In fact, the A’s are just 4-10 in the burly right-hander’s 14 starts in 2008.
Blanton has a serviceable 3.84 ERA at the Coliseum this year, but he is just 1-6 in 10 starts, eight of which Oakland has lost. He’s also 0-3 with a hefty 9.39 ERA in three career starts against New York.
The Yankees had a nine-game winning streak against the A.L. West halted with last night’s defeat, but they’re still on hot runs of 39-14 in the third game of a series and 8-4 against winning teams. Furthermore, with Pettitte on the mound, they are on streaks of 4-0 in the third game of a series, 4-0 on Thursday, 5-2 against the A.L. West, 10-4 on the highway and 17-8 with the veteran hurler going on four days’ rest.
The A’s are 12-5 in their last 17 against the A.L. East and are on additional upticks of 4-0 against left-handed starters and 5-1 in Game 3 of a series.
The over is 4-1 in Pettitte’s last five starts overall, 4-0 in his last four against the A.L. West and 7-1 in Blanton’s last eight versus the A.L. East. Conversely, the under is 13-5 in Pettitte’s last 18 when going on four days’ rest, 7-2 in his last nine against winning teams, 7-1 in his past eight on the road, 35-17-2 in Blanton’s past 54 at home, 13-5 in Blanton’s last 18 against winning teams and 4-1 in his last five on Thursday.
For New York, the under is on runs of 13-6 on the road, 14-7 on the highway against winning teams and 6-3 overall against winning teams, though the over is 10-4 in its last 14 against the A.L. West. Meanwhile, the over is 7-2-1 in Oakland’s last 10 Thursday contests, but the under is 8-3-1 in its past 12 against left-handed starters. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is 10-5 in the last 15 clashes at the Coliseum, but the under is 9-5 in the last 14 meetings overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OAKLAND
Alex Smart
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros
Prediction: Under
Reason: The Milwaukee Brewers will send the ace of their staff Ben Sheets ( 6-1, 2.62 ERA) to the hill today to face a inconsistent Houston Astros offense. Sheets is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two starts vs the Astros this season, and 11-8 along with a stable 3.71 ERA in 26 career appearances in this series. His Astros pitching opponent Brian Moehler, is coming of his best outing of the season, a seven-shutout-inning, two-hitter against the Cardinals on Friday. The right hander has garnered a 2.50 ERA in 3 home starts this season, and should have another top notch effort today against a Brewers team that despite of a 10 run out put last night in a wild win, have been below average this season on offense, averaging just 4.2 RPG on the road while hitting under the Mendoza line . Look for both hurlers to go deep, and when called upon, for both average, but capable bull pens to do the same. Which will help keep this tilt, on the low side of the number. Final notes & Key Trends: Houston is 21-8 UNDER against division opponents this season. Under is 6-1 in Brewers last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game . Under is 5-0-1 in Astros last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Under is 5-0-1 in Moehlers last 6 starts overall. Play under
Mike Rose
Florida Marlins
Veteran lefty Jamie Moyer will make his 14th start of the season tonight carrying a 6-3 mark and 4.56 ERA. In his last five starts, Moyer is 4-0 with a 3.94 ERA (14 ER in 32 innings), and he’s pitched at least six innings during that stretch. He’s coming off a game in Atlanta of which he should have lost, but got bailed out by an error with two outs in the top of the 9th. He’s 3-1 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the road allowing 39 hits and 13 runs in just over 34 total innings of work. Philly is a stellar 5-1 in his six road starts this year, and they’ve won seven of the L/10 times he’s worked. In his career against Florida, Jamie’s a perfect 8-0 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Moyer earned a victory against them last week at home where he threw seven innings of five-run ball in Phillies 7-5 victory.
Opposing him will be the Marlins Scott Olson who comes into tonight’s start 4-2 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Unfortunately, his defense has cost him in his L/3 starts and that’s why he hasn’t earned a decision during that span. Florida’s won nine of his 13 starts overall, and they’ve captured victories in six of his eight home starts this season. He’s currently the sharpest he’s been all season of late going 0-0 with a 3.71 ERA and allowing 14 hits and seven earned runs in his last three starts. However, he’s struggled immensely against the Phillies getting rocked for a 6.00 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in nine career starts. This will be his first start against them this season.
The Phillies have excelled against left-handers this season going 16-8 overall, while the Marlins have struggled a bit winning just nine of the L/10 times. That said, the Phillies bats have become awfully quiet of late, and they’re a poor 1-5 the L/6 times they’ve taken the trip to Miami. Look for the Marlins to feed off the exhileration of last nights win and finally get the best of Moyer to sweep the series.
BRAD DIAMOND
Play on: Boston (Lester) over Baltimore
Surely, the O’s have been a solid play this season as an underdog as the AL is having difficulty adjusting to a club who will not letdown. Yes, they may play lesser ball at times, but they have forged a personality that gives their fan base something to cheer about. However, must back lefty Lester who continues to improve his location, while keeping batters guessing. Boston is 4-1 L5 times out with Lester versus Baltimore and 4-0 L4 tries at home (Lester). Finally, the Saux have been automatic cash for their backers at home with a sizzling 41-12 record of late.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Cleveland w/Laffey vs Hernandez
Note: The Tribe wraps up its three game set with the Twins Thursday evening when Aaron Laffy takes on Livan Hernandez at Progressive Field in Cleveland. Laffey has been like day-and-night when hurling at home as opposed to on the road this season as evidence by his 1.38 ERA in Cleveland compared to his 5.79 ERA away. Conversely, Hernandez owns a lousy 6.00 ERA on the road, which is more than 1.3 runs higher than that at home in the Metrodome this year. Look for Laffey to improve to 12-5 in his last 17 teams starts, including four in a row at home, here tonight.
James Patrick
Twins vs. Indians
Twins are just 1-7 in Thursday action and the Indians are 11-5 behind Laffey. The Tribe is missing some key components but our selection is Cleveland Indians in Thursday Major League action. In other Thursday Baseball action,
Robert Ross
St Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
Cards lose Pujols but get Joel Piniero back to bolster the starting rotation. They also get to swing against Bronson Arroyo who has been God-awful. ST LOUIS is 25-15 against the money line against right-handed starters this season, most of whom have been better than Arroyo. PINEIRO is 10-3 against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Arroyo, who has allowed 95 hits (13 of which left the yard) in 73+ innings this year, is 8-21 against the money line in June games since 1997. (Team's Record) Take St. Louis!
Scott Spreitzer
Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Chicago Cubs
I'm laying the price with the Cubs on Thursday afternoon. Chicago, like the St. Louis Cardinals, lost a key cog in their lineup this week. The Redbirds were able to overcome the loss of Albert Pujols last night, unfortunately for me. I believe the Cubs will do the same, at least on Thursday, in the absence of Soriano. That's due in part to Atlanta's horrible struggles away from home. They have also dropped three straight Tim Hudson starts and four of his last five, thanks to a lack of run support. I expect more of the same today. Carlos Zambrano collapsed in the seventh inning and lost his last start. But he's been unstoppable this season following a loss. The Cubs are a perfect 4-0 when Zambrano's next start follows a game that they lost with their "ACE" on the hill. Zambrano has pitched a full seven innings in three of those outings and eight in the fourth. He's allowed just six earned runs and 29 base runners in 29 IP. That's a strong, 1.86 ERA and 1.00 WHIP! I expect a focused effort by Zambrano following that meltdown in L.A., and a focused effort by the Cubs in general following the Soriano injury. I'm laying the price with the Cubs on Thursday.
Big Al McMordie
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: San Francisco Giants
At 3:05pm our complimentary selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Colorado Rockies. San Francisco's AT&T Park may be one of the nicest Major League venues in which to watch a baseball game, but the Giants probably don't mind getting out of there as they are the only team in Major League Baseball to have a significantly better record on the road than at home. Fresh off their four game sweep against the Nationals in DC, the Giants have lost two road games in a row at Coors Field to begin this series against the Rockies, the last one being a real heartbreaking 1-0 loss with their ace Tim Lincecum on the mound Wednesday night. The good news for tonight's game is that they get to face a starter in 22 year-old righthander Greg Reynolds who has some of the ugliest rookie stats I've seen in quite some time. When you look at Reynolds' strikeouts and walks numbers it is not a misprint. In just over 34 innings pitched this season, Reynolds has just nine strikeouts to go with 20 free passes. This does not bode well for facing Major League hitters. Reynolds will have his hands full this afternoon at home against a team that has really been hitting the snot out of the ball lately. In their last nine games the Giants have failed to score at least five runs on only three occasions. Take the Giants.
Scott Ferrall
San Francisco +110 over Colorado--Great game on Wednesday and the Giants will get this one because Sanchez will pitch well. There's been some good pitching in this series. Sanchez is 5-3 and the Giants are only two games under .500 on the road.
LOS ANGELES +130 over San Diego--I think the Dodgers will catch jake peavy coming off the DL. He'll pitch OK, but LA will hit him and score some runs. San Diego just wants Peavy back every five days, but he won't be that sharp in his return from injury
LUCKY LEPRECHAUN SPORTS
Chicago/ DETROIT Under 10
The Under is 10-4 in White Sox last 14 games vs. a left-handed starter, 10-3-1 in Buehrles last 14 road starts vs. Tigers and 8-3 in Buehrles last 11 road starts vs. a team with a losing record, while the Under is 8-2-2 in Rogers' last 12 home starts vs. a team with a winning record, plus the Under is 13-3 in Cuzzis last 16 games behind home plate vs. Detroit. Neither pitcher has been impressive this year, but there are several signs that point to the Under in this one. We all know the Tigers hit left-handed pitching very well, but they have not had success vs Mark Buehrle as he owns a solid 3.05 ERA in 24 career starts vs the Tigers, including a very nice 2.27 ERA in his last 5 trips to Detroit. The ChiSox road games have averaged just 7.9 rpg on the year, their day games have averaged 8.9 rpg and in games when they face a lefthander there has just been 7.4 rpg being scored, including just 5.6 rpg when they face a lefty on the road. Kenny Rogers has not had a great year, but he has been better lately, posting a 1.79 ERA in his last 3 starts and in his last 4 home starts vs the Sox he owns a a tidy 1.80 ERA. Detroit scores 5.5 rpg vs lefties overall, but in their last 7 against southpaws they are putting up just 3.7 rpg. Detroit scores 3.4 rpg in day games and 4.1 rpg within the Central, plus in their last 10 games vs Buehrle just 8.5 rpg have been scored. Both teams can hit yes, but Rogers is pitching good right now and Buehrle has been great against the Tigers in his career, plus we have a solid Under Ump behind the plate. About 7 runs at the most in this one.
Michael Cannon
Washington at PITTSBURGH -125
Take the Pirates as the home chalk this afternoon over the Nationals.
This is the rubber game of the three-game series, and I can't see the Bucos coming up short this afternoon.
Tom Gorzelanny will start for Pittsburgh, and although the left-hander has had his problems this year, I like him to build off his last start when he pitched seven strong innings and allowed just three runs against the Diamondbacks on Saturday.
Gorzelanny didn't get the decision, but he settled in and pitched six scoreless innings after allowing those three runs in the top of the first.
Washington just doesn't have the offense to plate the necessary runs for the win here. Their top four hitters are all injured and they were held to a single run in last night's 3-1 loss.
Jason Bergmann will start for Washington and he's 1-3 with a 5.23 ERA on the season. The right-hander has allowed an alarming 10 homeruns in just 43 innings of work.
Take the Pirates as they grab the home win.
3* PITTSBURGH
Bobby Maxwell
N.Y. Yankees at OAKLAND
Oakland has been solid at home this season and we'll play them to get the win today when they conclude their series with the Yankees. New York took the opener on Tuesday 3-1, but Oakland came back and got Wednesday's win 8-4.
The A's have gone 10-5 in their last 15 home games and they are 9-4 in their last 12 matchups with the Yankees, including 5-2 in their last seven meetings in Oakland.
Andy Pettitte (5-5, 4.99 ERA) goes for New York today and the Yankees are 0-6 the last time he's started and they are 0-4 in his last four starts in Oakland. He's gotten knocked around lately, giving up 10 runs on 10 hits in 6.2 innings and left behind 10-6 but his offense bailed him out and scored six runs in the last three innings to win 12-11.
The A's are going with right-hander Joe Blanton (3-8, 4.15) who gave up three runs on seven hits in seven innings on Friday against the Angels but his offense failed to deliver as they lost 3-1. Oakland is 12-5 in its last 17 against the A.L. East, 4-0 against left-handed starters and 5-1 in Game 3 of a series.
The Yankees have been very mediocre all season and don't expect much from them in this one. Oakland will keep the home momentum going and get us a winner tonight.
4* OAKLAND
JEFFERSONSPORTS
EARLY RELEASE MLB
DETROIT-115
Jim Feist
ARI D'backs and NYM Mets
Take Under
Shea stadium is a huge, pitcher friendly park. Notice that Arizona averages 5.5 runs at home, but just 4.1 on the road. They won't find the going easy against Mets ace lefty Johan Santana, who has a 2.18 ERA his last three starts. Arizona goes with an ace of their own, righty Dan Haren who has a 3.44 ERA for the season. Don't look for a lot of offense! Play the Diamondbacks/Mets under the total!