James Patrick
Braves vs. Rangers
Bravos and the Rangers have played OVER the TOTAL in six of eight match-ups and we look for that trend to continue today in Arlington. Our selection is Atlanta – Texas OVER the TOTAL. Texas is Over in 8 of 11 home games and 12 of 15 overall.
THE MILLER GROUP
Nationals (RL) @ Twins (RL)
PICK: Nationals (RL)
The Nationals have been battling hard on this road trip, going 4-4 so far, with only one blowout in the mix, that coming here last night, 11-2. The Twins haven't been good in series finales this year, particularly when coming off a win. Look for them to let down their guard this afternoon, and allow the Nationals to at least keep it within the slimmest of margins, and possibly even win outright.
Washington actually owns more wins on the road than it does at home this season. They have at least one positive going for them here today as they'll be facing Glen Perkins, a lefty. They're hitting 14 points higher against left-handers than right-handers on the road this season. It's a small difference to be sure, but it is worth noting. They're also a respectable 8-9 in Game 3 of a series following a loss. Compare that to the Twins 3-8 record in Game 3 after a victory.
The Nats' have been swept twice on the road this season, but both of those took place in the first three weeks of the season. Since that point, they've gone nine road series' without coming away empty-handed.
With this being a day game following a night game, the Twins will likely sit Joe Mauer. Hitting .332, that's a big bat to take out of your lineup. Grab the insurance run with the visiting Nationals this afternoon. Take Washington +1.5 runs.
Stevie Y
Washington Nationals vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Over
Were fading the Minny Twins Glen Perkins who sports a huge 4.57 ERA, a 1.57 WHIP and a batting average against of .317. At home this season he is 1-2 with a 5.47 ERA and a .348 batting average against. In his last 3 starts, he has allowed 22 hits and 6 walks in 15.1 innings, for an ERA of 6.00 and a WHIP of 1.854. For the month of June his ERA is 5.87 and his batting average against is .344. Looking @ the Nationals they sport a .276 over the past 10 days
Looking at Washington Shawn Hill a poor 1-3 with a 4.61 ERA & a 1.57 WHIP , throw in a over 7.00 ERA and a .366 batting average against. Hill is also a lofty 5.66 Era and his batting average against is .356. Pitching in a dome this year his ERA is 11.25 and his batting average against is .389. Over the past 3 years, his ERA in domed stadiums is 7.20 and his batting average against is, get ready, .409. The Twins are batting .272 at home this year & this baby has 10-9 written all over it
Jimmy Moore
Baltimore -130
Jack Clayton
Rays
MustWinSportsPicks
San Diego +1.5
JerseySteveWins
Minnesota
RedZone Sports
Braves
MIGHTY QUINN
Royals
A's
Templer's Sports Picks
Cincinnati
Insider Sports Report
San Diego/N.Y UNDER 9.5
RAZOR SHARP
HOUSTON/BALTIMORE OVER
MIKE WYNN
Cleveland/Colorado Under
PLATINUM PLAYS
BREWERS
HUDDLE UP
Arizona
BIG TIME SPORTS
CUBS/RAYS OVER 8.5
#1 SPORTS
ROCKIES
TOTALS 4 U
HOUSTON/BALTIMORE UNDER
DR VEGAS
Seattle
THE VEGAS SREAMLINE
CLEVELAND/COLORADO UNDER
SCOUT
St. Louis
floridabookybusters
LA Dodgers
Brian James Picks
Toronto Blue Jays -115
Joe Wiz
Houston +110
SD/NYY Under
Cappers Access
Texas
Cubs
Bob Donahue
Cardinals
Glen Mcgrew
Hou/Balt Over
Frank Patron
Chicago White Sox -150
Paul Leiner
10* Over 9 NYY/SD
EZWINNERS
3 STAR: (908) TEXAS (-$117) over Atlanta
(Action) (Risking $351 to win $300)
2 STAR: (911) MILWAUKEE (+$105) over Toronto
(Action) (Risking $200 to win $210)
2 STAR: (916) ARIZONA (-$105) over Oakland
(Action) (Risking $105 to win $100)
1 STAR: (914) ST. LOUIS (-$105) over Kansas City
(Action) (Risking $105 to win $100)
1 STAR: (917) HOUSTON (+$113) over Baltimore
(Action) (Risking $100 to win $113)
1 STAR: (919) CHICAGO (+$135) over Tampa Bay
(Action) (Risking $100 to win $135)
BALFE
Major League Baseball
Brewers -105 over Bluejays
Bush/Burnett
ARTHUR RALPH
Super Pick: CHI White Sox
900 Best Bet : Baltimore Orioles
Free play: Tampa Bay
DAVID MALINSKY
Atlanta Braves at Texas Rangers 4*
PICK: Texas Rangers
Sometimes the best value comes from unusual circumstances that are not grounded in baseball logic. The current 1-7 Texas run behind Scott Feldman is a good example. Feldman has been solid, with a 1.18 WHIP through those eight games a better indicator than a 4.56 ERA, and in the four starts from this mound it has been even better - a 0.96 WHIP and a 2.08 ERA. He also worked at least six full innings in seven of those starts, yet it all adds up to a 1-7 despite being backed by one of the best offenses in that game, which is why the Rangers are not being given much respect by the marketplace for this game. That gives us an excellent line to work with, especially with Milton Bradley slated to return to the lineup.
There is also some respect being given to Charlie Morton here, but we do not believe there is merit. Yes, he has had a decent season in the Minor’s, and also got a win against the Angels in his first start since being called up. But this is a guy that has toiled at the lower levels since being drafted in 2002, and sports an uninspiring 30-45/4.53 through those years. He throws a fast-ball in the mid 90’s, which can help elsewhere but is absolutely the wrong dimension to bring against this lineup in this park, and we will call for a Texas team that has been rocking right-handed fast-balls all season to turn this into a true “Welcome to the Big League’s” for Morton. Remember, this was not a merit call-up, but one that was forced because of injuries to Atlanta’s starting rotation. And an inconsistent Brave bullpen will only add fuel to the fire in the latter stages.
Kansas City Royals at St. Louis 5*
PICK: Kansas City Royals
Kansas City is playing solid baseball right now. The key is that the marketplace does not realize just how solid it has been, and that is what gives us such a great price to work with in this one. The Royals got relegated to the bottom of baseball’s barrel when they endured that 0-12 run, but they have shown their grit in snapping back, all the while showing potential in several key areas.
The turnaround started with a 2-2 split in Yankee Stadium, and it would have been a 3-1 if one major lead had not been lost in the 9th inning. Then it was a disappointing 1-2 at home in a series vs. Texas, but that one also swung in a bitter way - if now for seeing a 5-1 lead in the 8th disappear of the series opener, they win that set. Then it was on to Arizona, where they dominated the Diamondbacks to a 20-7 tune, but only got a 2-1 series win because of an extra innings loss. Now they have already clinched the battle for local bragging rights vs. the Cardinals, and will bring plenty of momentum to the table and they go for the sweep. Take away those bitter one-run defeats, and it would be a surge that would be visible to all.
Now we get Zack Greinke right after he got back on form against Arizona in his last outing (seven innings, no runs, three hits), and after facing the Diamondbacks, White Sox and Yankees on the road in his last three outings he is stepping way down in class here, as the absence of Albert Pujols is finally taking a toll on a Cardinal lineup that has been held to three runs or less in six of the last seven games. And a Kansas City bullpen that has not been scored on since last Friday does not carry a fatigue rating anywhere - Joakim Soria has worked each of the first two games in this series, but in getting those saves only needed 20 pitches, including just seven last night.
Meanwhile it is more than just the St. Louis offense that is a mess today; Tony LaRussa could be facing real problems on the mound. His original intent was to start Anothony Reyes this afternoon, but Reyes will be shelved indefinitely with an elbow injury. That forces Brad Thompson into Major League action for the first time since he went on the DL on April 23rd, and there is no indication that he is ready yet. Over two rehab starts with AAA Memphis he has allowed seven runs on 13 hits over just 8.2 innings, and in his last outing he faced 18 batters without recording a single strikeout. He was scheduled for at least one more Minor League start before being called up, the Cardinal way of admitting that he is not ready, and we would not be surprised to see his stuff sorely lacking in this one.
Padres (RL) at Yankees (RL) 4*
PICK: Yankees (RL)
Here is one that should not come as any surprise. In winning the first two games of this series by a combined 17-5, the Yankees have led by multiple runs at the end of 17 of the 18 innings, and we cashed easily both times. Now we can play the Run Line in a pick’em range, and that is the mode for another game that we do not believe will be close.
Here are the updated Padre numbers in this role - they are 5-18 on the road against non-division opponents, with 15 of the losses coming by two runs or more. They are also 6-15 against teams that currently sport winning records. So why are we left with a fair range to work with? Largely because the 2-0/1.29 that Josh Banks shows in the pitching forms is leading to a lot of double takes. It will take a lot more than those 20 innings to convince us, however - he worked to a 1-3/6.80 tune over 11 appearances in the Minor’s (six starts, five outings in relief), and does not have the kind of pedigree to tell us that his current form is for real. That makes this the ideal setting to step in, as he faces a tough lineup from a most challenging mound.
We also get a reduced rate here because Joba Chamberlain has not been all that impressive as a starter, but in many ways this can feel like Opening Day for him. First the major pressure is now off, after he has taken the ball to open a game three times. Second, by stretching out to six innings in his last outing at Houston, he shows that he has built his arm strength up to the point at which we can count on him to work some quality innings. Those innings come easily against the feeble Padre offense, and we can call for him to show his best stuff since joining the rotation in a game in which we also expect him to have a big lead to work with. And while Marino Rivera has worked both games in this series, he only needed 11 pitches last night, and will be available.
Jeff Scott Sports
2 UNIT PLAYS
NY YANKS/ San Diego Under 9
The Under is 5-1 in Padres last 6 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record and 8-2 in Padres last 10 Thursday games, while the Under is 5-14 in Yankee day games this year, plus the Under is 10-2 in Estabrooks last 12 games behind home plate. Joba is starting to show sign of being a solid starter as he is off his best start yet, going 6 innings, allowing just 1 run and 6 hits. he hasprogressed now in each of his last 2 starts and has posted a 2.61 ERA in those 2 starts. Today that progression should take another step forward as he will be taking on a bad offensive squad. The Padres hit just .246 and score 3.7 rpg overall, including hitting .249 and scoring 3.7 rpg on the road. The Yankee offense has been clicking off late but today they take on a tough right-hander in Josh Banks, who has a 1.29 ERA overall, including a 1.80 ERA in his 3 starts and a 1.93 ERA in his 2 road starts. Joba's 3 starts this year have averaged just 8 rpg, while Josh's 3 satrs have avaeraged 7.7 rpg. Both pitchers are pitching too well right now to think that this game will go over 9 runs. Take the under here.
I ALSO LIKE
Minnesota -140 over Washington
1 UNIT PLAY
CHISOX -146 over Pittsburgh
I have been on the RL in theis series the first 2 games, but today I think I'll just stick with the ML. I have been watching something interesting as the season has gone on, and that is that Gavin Floyd has not been getting much respect. His prices seem kinda low considering how well he has pitched this year. Gavin has gone 7-3 on the year with solid 3.30 ERA, including a nice 4-1 mark at home with a 2.82 ERA. He also gets help from his offense as the Sox score 5.4 rpg for him overall, outscoring their opponents by 2 rpg and they score 6.9 rpg for him at home, while out scoring foes by 3.9 rpg in his home starts. Along with a solid home ERA, he also has a very strong WHIP at 0.86 in his home starts. He will be taking on a decent offense as the Pirates score 5.4 rpg on the road, but they only hit .257 vs righty starters and score just 4.7 rpg and even then though they score 5 rpg in interleague play, they have hit just .210 in those games. The Sox offense is having little problems scoring right now as the have put up 24 runs in the 1st 2 games of the series and have averaged 7.8 rpg in their last 12 home games. Chicago doesn't hit lefties very well, but they are just too hot right now to think that they won' t have success vs Dumatrait, who is 1-1 with a 4.54 ERA on the road, while allowing teams and OBP of .359 in the process. Chicago is a solid 23-11 at home, while the Bucs struggle on the road with a 12-23 mark. It may not be pretty or easy, but still look for the Sox to pull away late with a 2 or 3 run win.
Winners Edge
LA Dodgers RL (+1.5) -135 , 2 units
Chicago Cubs + 135 , 2 units
Oakland A's - 110 , 1 unit
DUNKEL
Oakland at Arizona
The Diamondbacks snapped a three-game skid yesterday and look to make it two straight against an Oakland team that is just 3-6 as a road favorite between -100 and -125. Arizona is the underdog pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the D-Backs favored straight up by 1. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+100). Here are all of today's games.
THURSDAY, JUNE 19
Game 901-902: LA Dodgers at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Stults) 14.075; Cincinnati (Harang) 15.041
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-165); Under
Game 903-904: San Diego at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Banks) 14.533; NY Yankees (Chamberlain) 16.684
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-215); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-215); Over
Game 905-906: Washington at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Hill) 15.184; Minnesota (Perkins) 14.425
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+125); Under
Game 907-908: Atlanta at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Morton) 14.883; Texas (Feldman) 15.635
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Texas (-105); 11
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-105); Under
Game 909-910: Pittsburgh at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Dumatrait) 14.897; White Sox (Floyd) 14.817
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+135); Over
Game 911-912: Toronto at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Burnett) 15.100; Milwaukee (Bush) 14.245
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Toronto (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-115); Over
Game 913-914: Kansas City at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Greinke) 14.866; St. Louis (Thompson) 16.457
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 915-916: Oakland at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Smith) 14.523; Arizona (Davis) 15.433
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Oakland (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+100); Over
Game 917-918: Houston at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Chacon) 14.655; Baltimore (Burres) 14.006
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+110); Under
Game 919-920: Chicago Cubs at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Gallagher) 14.479; Tampa Bay (Shields) 16.175
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-155); Under
Game 921-922: Cleveland at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Sowers) 16.006; Colorado (De La Rosa) 14.713
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Colorado (-115); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+105); Under
The Straley Group
Arizona D Backs
Sapkowski
Premium
CIN Reds
CHI White Sox
Free picks
TB Rays
COL Rockies
Tips
For Euro 2008 play Portugal(as Draw no bet)
Louie Mayo
(5*) KC +100
(3*) Atlanta +100
(1*) Reds -170
Kyle Baugues
3* Atlanta Braves/Morton -104
3* St. Louis Cardinals/Reyes -104
3* Chicago Cubs/Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 8.5