DUNKEL
NY Yankees at Pittsburgh
The Pirates will look to take the rubber game of the series and build on their 13-8 record at home when the total is listed at 9 to 9 1/2. Pittsburgh is the underdog pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the Pirates favored straight up by 1. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+130). Here are all of today's games.
THURSDAY, JUNE 26
Game 951-952: Tampa Bay at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Garza) 14.727; Florida (Hendrickson) 15.276
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+110); Over
Game 953-954: St. Louis at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wellemeyer) 15.373; Detroit (Robertson) 16.836
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Detroit (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-130); Over
Game 955-956: Baltimore at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Lis) 16.069; Cubs (Marquis) 14.806
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-155); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+145); N/A
Game 957-958: Chicago White Sox at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 15.693; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 13.947
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+105); Under
Game 959-960: Minnesota at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Baker) 16.859; San Diego (Banks) 14.643
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-105); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-105); Over
Game 961-962: Philadelphia at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Eaton) 14.328; Oakland (Harden) 16.153
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 2; 7
Vegas Line: Oakland (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-170); Under
Game 963-964: San Francisco at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 14.377; Cleveland (Lee) 15.600
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-160); Under
Game 965-966: NY Yankees at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Mussina) 13.908; Pittsburgh (Maholm) 14.902
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+130); Over
Game 967-968: Cincinnati at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Volquez) 15.661; Toronto (Litsch) 13.646
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-110); Over
Game 969-970: Texas at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Millwood) 14.019; Houston (Rodriguez) 15.632
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-120); Over
Templer's Sports Picks
Oakland
floridabookybusters
Toronto
Global Sports Picks
Toronto
Unionmans Picks
CINCINNATI -105
BetbetWin
Detroit Tigers -135
JOE WIZ
Florida +105
Brandon Banks
Florida Marlins
Kyle Baugues
Cleveland Indians -161
TRACE ADAMS
Minnesota Twins
Insider Sports Report
Chicago White Sox
HUDDLE UP
Florida Hendrickson +115
TOTALS 4 U
RANGERS/ASTROS OVER
DARKHORSE
Texas +120
#1 SPORTS
CINCINNATI -120
SCOUT
Houston -125
MIKE WYNN
Oakland -125
EASY MONEY
SAN FRANCISCO +145
PLATINUM PLAYS
GIANTS + 150
NEVADA SHARPSHOOTER
WHITE SOX +105
BIG TIME SPORTS
YANKEES/PIRATES OVER 9
MIGHTY QUINN
Rays
Paul Leiner
10* White Sox -105
Jeff Scott
2 Units Minn/SD Under
1 Unit Each Cubs And Tigers
Matty Oshea
Astros
Cappers Access
Tigers
Rangers
Glen Mcgrew
White Sox
JACK CLAYTON
Rangers
N.I.S. Sports
Tampa Bay/Florida OVER 9
Cincinnati - 107
VicMonte
100* Cubs
100* Yankees
Oddswiz
Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Minnesota Twins
We used the Twins last night as a Premium Play and will ride them once again today. The Twins are on fire. They have won 8 in a row and 11 of their last 13 games outscoring their opponents by a whopping 52-16! The Padres are just the opposite. They have lost 4 straight and 8 of their last 10. They send rookie pitcher Josh Banks to the hill who has been playing well, but the key word here is rookie. He faces Scott Baker who has been sharp as well. Baker has an ERA of 2.63 over his last 4 starts. This play is simply a matter of price. Under these circumstances, a red hot twins team facing an ice cold Padres team and a rookie pitcher, if they were to play 1000 times, the Twins are going to win more than 50% of the time. We get them at even money here today so this is a long term winner, which is what we look to play in baseball. Twins +100
Larry Ness IL Game of the Month
The Giants own MLB's worst home record at 14-24 but are now 20-20 on the road after taking the first two games of this their three-game interleague series with the Indians in Cleveland. San Fran has won both games, despite scoring just seven runs. The Indians, who last year won 96 games and led Boston 3-1 in the ALCS (one win away from a World Series appearance), are now 35-43 on the season. They'll open the day in last-place in the AL Central but still just 7 1/2 games back of the first-place White Sox. While tonight's 'price' is a little higher than I usually like to lay, I love the pitching matchup here as well as the game situation. Most are familiar with Matt Cain, who followed a solid rookie year (13-12 in 2006) with a 'nightmare' 2007 season. He didn't pitch all that poorly (7-16 with a 3.65 ERA) but the Giants went 9-23 in his starts and at minus-$1,803 vs the moneyline, ranked dead-last among all MLB starters last season! He's made 16 starts this year and will take a 4-5 mark (team is 6-10 in games) with a 4.32 ERA into this game. His last seven starts have been typical, as he's 2-2 (team is 2-5) with a 4.47 ERA. Going for Cleveland is Cliff Lee. Lee was a mainstay of the Cleveland rotation from 2004-06, winning 46 games with the Indians going 59-39 (.602) in all his starts during that span. Injuries slowed him last season (he didn't make a start after July 26), as he finished 5-8 with a 6.29 ERA. However, Lee has come back healthy this year and has been one of MLB's top pitchers. He allowed just one ER through his first four starts, just four ERs over his first seven and takes a 10-1 (2.45 ERA) over 14 starts (team is 11-3 and plus-$718) into this game. He's 4-0 with a 2.41 ERA over his last six starts (team is 5-1) and while the Indians have struggled at the plate for most of this season (.244 team BA is 29th of 30 teams), they've played well behind Lee, averaging 6.0 RPG in his starts in '08. The Giants are hitting 20 points higher than the Indians as a ateam (.264) but remain one of MLB's lowest scoring teams (4.12 RPG to Cleveland's average of 4.44). Both teams have played poorly in interleague play (each are at 4-10) but after two straight home losses, it's the Indians (behind Lee), who are the play in this one. IL Game of the Month 20* Cle Indians.
Jason Lowry
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Florida Marlins
Our free pick today is on the Marlins, as they look to avoid the sweep over against the Rays. The Marlins are 35-15 against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 to 4.70 since 1997, and are 21-11 against the money line after 2 or more consecutive home games this season. The Rays haven't done so good capturing the sweep on the road as they are 3-23 against the money line in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. Take the Marlins
Sebastian
20 Detriot Over
20 Cinci
30 Yankees
50 Cleveland -1.5
100 Cubs -1.5
LT Profits
Tampa Bay Rays @ Florida Marlins Over 9.5
The Tampa Bay Rays beat the Florida Marlins 15-3 here last night, and while this may not be as big a blowout today, we do expect another high scoring game.
If you recall, we mentioned a while back that Mark Hendrickson of the Marlins was pitching over his head in the early going, and that he would return to being his mediocre self eventually. Well, Big Mark has made us look like geniuses lately, as he has gone six straight starts without recording a Quality Start. He has a whopping 10.08 WHIP and a disgusting 1.95 WHIP over those last six outings. The southpaw is facing a Rays lineup that is coming on vs. lefties lately, hitting .292 against them the last 10 games.
Now Matt Garza does have great stuff for Tampa, but he has not been very consistent, especially on the road. He is 1-3 with a 6.25 ERA and an ugly 1.55 WHIP away from home, and he has failed to record a Quality Start in any of his last three road outings.
Finally, the Over is 9-3 in the last 12 Florida home games, and we look for a continuation of that pattern here.
Pick: Rays, Marlins Over 9.5
San Francisco Giants +150
Cliff Lee of the Cleveland Indians is certainly having a great season, but Matt Cain of the San Francisco Giants is on a nice little roll himself and he is facing a Cleveland offense that is struggling right now.
Cain has five Quality Starts in his last six outings, as he appears to have recovered his fine form of last year when he was arguably the unluckiest pitcher in baseball. He has a nice 2.95 ERA and an excellent 1.03 WHIP in his last three starts. Cain is facing an Indians offense that has scored just six runs in the last three games including a total of three runs in the first two games of this series.
Now nobody can quibble with what Lee has done, going 10-1with a 2.45 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. However, if you only look at the last three starts for each of these pitchers, Lee actually has the higher WHIP (1.23), and his ERA is not significantly better (2.41) than Cain over this span.
Thus, at this price, we feel that the Giants are worth an investment to get the upset and record the series sweep.
Pick: Giants +150
STEPHEN NOVER
Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres
PICK: Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins are the hottest club in baseball, but they continue to fly under the radar screen as evidenced by this price.
The Twins have won eight in a row, winning by an average of more than four runs during this streak. They have dropped just one of their past 11 games.
They stand an excellent chance of sweeping San Diego in this day matchup. Twins starter Scott Baker has a 2.63 ERA in his last four games. He has been solid and dependable since coming off the DL. He's backed by a strong closer and an offense that knows how to manufacture runs.
The same can't be said for the Padres. They've scored the second-fewest runs in the Majors. They are averaging just three runs during their last nine games.
San Diego also has problems versus American League clubs, dropping 19 of its last 26 interleague matchups.
The Padres are hoping rookie Josh Banks, making his fifth big-league start, can halt the Twins. Banks has been excellent, particularly at Petco Park, during his limited action.
But I wouldn't stand in the Twins' way. During their past five games, the Twins have defeated Randy Johnson, Brandon Webb, Jake Peavy and Greg Maddux. Those guys have 11 Cy Young Awards between them.
DAVID MALINSKY
Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padres
PICK: Under 4*
We saw a rare explosion of runs in Petco Park last night, which sets us up here in a couple of ways - 1. It keeps the value solid, for while it was an explosion of runs, it was not necessarily an offensive showcase (Minnesota had nine of 15 base-runners score, a rather efficient evening); 2. Because the game was not close in the latter stages, all key bullpen arms are rested and ready, and these two bring some quality arms. That leaves it up to Scott Baker and Jonathan Banks to get things started, and they bring plenty to the table.
We cashed a 4* ticket behind Baker in his last start vs. Arizona, and the best way to set his side of this equation is to go right back to that analysis - ”Scott Baker’s 2-2/3.71 does not raise a lot of eyebrows, and that works in our favor. His command has been outstanding, with a terrific ratio of 42 strikeouts vs. only nine hits allowed, and in terms of consistency, note that he has only allowed more than three runs once, a windy night in Texas in which Minnesota out-slugged the Rangers 12-6. We certainly do not hold that game against him. He is more than capable of keeping up that form against an Arizona offense that lacks patience (only two teams have more strikeouts), and also confidence away from Chase Field. So we are absolutely buying in at the right time with him, and do not be surprised if it is the first of many such investments to come.”
It indeed was the first of many investments. He continued his command of the strike zone against the Diamondbacks, with seven strikeouts vs. only one walk, and with 16 K’s in his last two starts it shows an emerging confidence in his stuff. If you throw strikes and force the Padres to make things happen with their bats you are on your way here in Petco.
Meanwhile Banks has been nothing short of brilliant since being called up. A 1.62 ERA over 33.1 innings speaks volumes, and as a starter he has had a sparkling ratio of 15 strikeouts vs. only one walk again. Once again we put that control emphasis into play in Petco - if nothing is given away to opposing offenses the challenge of getting around the basis is magnified, and Banks may catch an additional break with Joe Mauer likely to sit out - with a day game following a night game, no DH, and a long plane ride back to Minnesota afterwards, they are scheduling him for a day off (though that is subject to change, of course). And with all of those bullpen arms ready, Banks does not have to be asked to go more than a solid six innings, which he is capable of vs. a Minnesota lineup getting a first look at this stuff.
Although this Park can play a little higher in summer day games, note that it is a mild day in San Diego - the high is not expected to top 67 degrees. That negates any daytime issues, and leaves us with solid value.
Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers
PICK: Under 6*
After cashing a 6* Under in the opener between these two on Tuesday it was a sin of omission to not come right back last night, but trusting Eric Stults, along with our belief that Gavin Floyd has been an over-achiever, kept us on the sidelines. So when a journeyman left-hander completely shut the White Sox down, not allowing a run or an extra base hit in working his first-ever (and last?) Major League complete game, it speaks volumes about the Chicago issues that we presented on Tuesday. Give the White Sox a setting in which the ball can carry, and they can mash with the best. But put them in a park in which it takes some offensive finesse to score, and it is simply not their game. And that is one of the prime reasons why we are set up for another low-scoring affair today.
How much have those windy offensive explosions on the South Side impacted the overall perception of the White Sox? How about this - they have gone Under in 10 of their last 12 road games, and 24 of the last 33. Now they are also facing Clayton Kershaw at the wrong time, as he slowly develops the polish to go with his outstanding stuff (26 strikeouts in 29 innings). And with Kershaw only allowing three home runs so far, we are not concerned with that aspect of the game, particularly with his lefty presence, and the lack of a DH, keeping Jim Thome sidelined again, to add to the absence of Paul Konerko. And the complete game from Stults leaves all arms available from an outstanding Dodger bullpen.
The Dodgers find runs difficult to come by as well. John Danks has not been raising eyebrows despite a 2.80 ERA over 86.2 innings. And in truth we might even be able to classify him as better than that. Division rival Minnesota saw him in three starts LY, and that helped the Twins to have some good approaches against him this season. But in the 12 starts against anyone other than Minnesota it has been a sparkling 1.72 allowance. So why is there not more respect? Largely because Danks has been in the wrong place at the wrong time in terms of distribution - he has only four wins, and in eight of 15 starts allowed two runs or less without winning. His most recent run has seen him hold the Rockies and Cubs to just one run over 12 innings in his last two starts, with more strikeouts than hits allowed in those games. Yet all he could walk away with were a pair of no-decisions. That helps to make him an under-valued commodity here, and his task could be made even easier if the Dodgers sit Jeff Kent and Russell Martin, as planned.
Like the Dodgers, the White Sox bring a bullpen that is not only strong, but has all key arms rested and ready. That ensures against any late-game shenanigans here in what will be a pitchers afternoon at Chavez Ravine.
Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Cincinnati Reds 4*
If there were any questions about Edinson Volquez being able to maintain his lofty numbers they have been answered most affirmatively in his recent outings. Five starts back it was a solid home outing against an Atlanta team that has hit right-handers harder than anyone else in the National League. Four starts back he shut out what had been a sizzling Philadelphia offense at the time, on the road in a hitter’s park. Three starts ago he checked a Florida lineup on three hits, those same Marlins that are #1 in the Major’s in home runs. And the last two have been solid outings against the Red Sox and Yankees. So what are we left with? A pitcher that has clearly been the best in the game this season, taking on a mediocre lineup and a struggling mound opponent. That does not call for this price range.
Here are the Volquez bottom lines - a 10-2/1.71 in which he has been remarkably consistent; how about a 5-2/1.60 on the road and a 5-0/1.83 at home? He has not allowed more than three runs in any start, and in 11 of 14 outings gave up one run or none. A ratio of 110 strikeouts vs. only 66 hits allowed is off the charts, and in 93.1 innings as a starter he has only allowed two home runs. Now a Toronto offense that lacks experience against him becomes the next victim.
We went to the well with a 4* ticket against Jesse Litsch in his last outing, and the bottom line is that Major League hitters are catching up to his limited stuff. Yes, he has great control. But with only 96 strikeouts in 199.2 career innings there is not the kind of pop needed to be anything more than a journeyman. Now hitters are learning to lay off of those pitches on the edges of the strike zone, and when Litsch has to work towards the middle of the plate he is nothing special at all. Over his last four starts it has been an 0-3/6.46, with 33 hits allowed in 23.2 innings, five of them leaving the park. And his particular problems against left-handers (.306 so far in his career) becomes even more pronounced against a Cincinnati offense that will load up from that side.
SAPKOWSKI
Premium
pass
Free picks
TB Rays
CHI Cubs
SOUTHSIDE SPORTS
ASTROS
Chad Jordan
Philadelphia Phillies +150
PRIORITY SPORTS INFO
Cleveland -155
RED ZONE
Orioles
COMPUTER SPORTS
MINNESOTA TWINS
FRANK PATRON
Tampa Bay Rays -120
Jennifer Barry
Cleveland Indians -160
DONALD TRAN
Cardinals +125
SILVER KEY PLAY
Tampa Bay/FLORIDA Over
Playmakers
Chicago Cubs -158
The Parlay King
Cubs -170
C-Stars Guaranteed Plays
NY Yankees/Pittsburgh Over 9
LARRY NESS
New York Yankees @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: Pittsburgh Pirates
The Yankees visited Pittsburgh this week for the first time since Losing Game 7 of the 1960 World Series. The Pirates were rude hosts on Tuesday (won 12-5) but the Yanks "returned the favor" last night, winning 10-0. New York will face its third straight left-handed starter in tonight's "rubber game" of the series, as Paul Maholm takes the mound for the Pirates. The New Yorkers had all sorts of trouble vs lefties on the road last year (5-14) but after splitting the first two games of this series against Gorzelanny and Duke, are 7-7 on the road vs lefties so far in '08. However, Maholm figures to be a much tougher opponent. He's been very good at home all season (4-1 with a 3.47 ERA in nine starts / team is 7-2) and has seen the Pirates win FIVE of his last six overall starts, including going 3-0 with a 3.15 ERA over his last five (team is 4-1). The Yankees will counter with Mike Mussina. Mussina began the year 1-3 but has since gone 9-2 with a 3.39 ERA in 12 starts (team is 9-3). He's 5-1 with 3.50 ERA in six road starts this year and it's also worth mentioning that he's MLB's winningest pitcher in interleague play since it began in 1997, going 21-13 vs NL teams. However, he's a so-so 8-6 with a 4.38 ERA in 21 road starts in IL play and last Saturday (at home), allowed a season-high 10 hits (and four ERs) in a 4-2 loss to the Reds. I like the way Maholm is pitching and the "price is right." Take this very 'live' home underdog.
Marco D´Angelo
Today's Pick: SAN DIEGO PADRES
Look for San Diego to stop Minnesota's Winning streak behind the pitching of Josh Banks who has a 1.62 ERA on the Season. The Padres avoid the Sweep in an afternoon affair.TAKE SAN DIEGO.
Matty O'Shea
Astros -130
Houston blew one on Wednesday despite a solid pitching performance from Roy Oswalt, and I think Wandy Rodriguez will perform even better on Thursday. Rodriguez has always pitched better at home, and this year is no different. He is 1-2 at Minute Maid Park with a 2.10 ERA in 2008 after going 6-3 with a 2.94 ERA there a year ago. With the Rangers still dealing with a depleted lineup due to injuries to Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradley, I think the Astros shut them down and get to Kevin Millwood (1-3 on the road with a 4.40 ERA) to take the series finale.