BEN BURNS
San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Indians
PICK: Cleveland Indians
I respect Matt Cain. However, while he's got some talent, Cain is still 4-5 with a mediocre 4.31 ERA on the season. This is a tough matchup for him, too. For starters, he'll be facing a talented Cleveland lineup which will be fired up to snap it's 3-game losing skid and to avoid getting swept. Note that the Indians are a profitable 23-15 (+7.4) since 2006, when coming off three or more consecutive losses. Making matters worse for Cain, he'll be opposed by Cliff Lee. That likely means that he won't have the luxury of receiving much run support. Indeed, Lee is 10-1 on the season with a stellar 2.45 ERA and 1.077 WHIP, averaging nearly seven innings per start. His stats are even better at home, as he's 3-0 with an outstanding 2.00 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in five starts here. Lee was sharp in his only previous start against the Giants (on 6/12/05) allowing one earned run through six complete innings, en route to a 5-3 victory for the Indians. Look for him to continue his winning ways here, as the Indians bounce back and avoid the sweep, improving to 34-16 the last 50 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range.
Teddy June Private Players Club Selection
5* Houston Astros
WUNDERDOG
Connecticut at Detroit
Pick: 5 units on Detroit -7
These teams will meet for the second time in three days and ultimately they will play three times over a six-game period. This series will go a long way to determine who comes out of the Eastern Conference as the top team. Connecticut took the opener in rather easy fashion, coming away with an impressive 17-point win in Uncasville Tuesday night. So why are they suddenly a six-point underdog here? Good teams don't forget embarrassing losses very quickly. Their loss occurred in their last game, so the mental edge changes for this one as well as the home court. These are two huge and decisive factors in the WNBA this year. Also worth noting is that the Shock have been an average team on the road at 5-4. At home they remain the only unbeaten team in the WNBA at 5-0, winning each game by an average of 10 points. The WNBA has also featured a huge edge to teams that allowed 80 points in their last game when matching up against a team that scored 80 in their last game. These teams, which are represented by Detroit tonight, have been 51-18 ATS over the last 69 games. Plenty of reasons for the Shock to keep working their home-court magic and come away with an impressive home win.
Game: Connecticut at Detroit
Pick: 5 units on Detroit -244 (moneyline)
For all the reasons we like the Shock to cover this game, it also presents value on the moneyline. When coming off a road loss by 10 points or more, WNBA teams that have a winning record on the season, have gone 111-31 against the moneyline. Add in revenge as we stated above and you have the makings of a lot of value here.
Game: San Antonio at Houston
Pick: 3 units on UNDER 141
San Antonio lost their first home game of the season to Houston in their last game. It is easy to look back and see what happened. Mentally they took the court thinking if they showed up they would win. San Antonio had won their previous five games and for one reason. They made a defensive commitment. They had allowed just 64.6 points per game in those five, so what do you think the mindset will be here? Lesson learned! They are going to come out playing the type of game that turned a 3-4 start into a 5-0 run. Houston dropped their first five games of the season allowing 78 ppg. They have now tightened things up on the defensive end are now allowing just 68.6 ppg in their last three home tilts. This game certainly looks like one of those games with a defensive signature and mindset so we will play the UNDER here.
Game: Phoenix at Chicago
Pick: 3 units on OVER 175.5
Is there a total that can hold this Phoenix team to playing under? Not in this range and in this type of matchup. As the season has progressed the pace has gotten faster, especially when the emphasis has been run, run, and run. They are perfecting this type of play. Over the last four games, they have featured 765 points or 193 a game. The Sky has been no stranger to high-scoring games either, as they have allowed over 90 a game in their last three. These teams played in the 100s last time they met, and we don't see this one staying out of the 90s, so OVER gets the call.
Game: Washington at Los Angeles
Pick: 3 units on OVER 143.5
This is a Sparks’ team that scores and scores consistently. They have yet to be held under 70 points in any of their 13 games thus far, and their lowest output at home has been 76 and has averaged 82 at home this year. A simple way to look at this one is if they get their average of 82, as a 12-point favorite, that says 70 for Washington or a game that should play in the 150s. Interesting side note to this one is that Washington has played 19 straight OVERS when they allow 79 or more in a game, so if the Sparks score even three points less than their average, there are still lots of signals for playing the OVER here. The Sparks are also 25-7 to the OVER against bad teams, those winning at a rate between 25-40% of their games. We will back the OVER here
Ross Benjamin MLB 10* Total of the Night
Giants / Indians under 8
RON RAYMOND'S 5* CFL GAME OF THE WEEK!
Winnipeg Blue Bombers -2.5
Vernon Croy 20 Unit MLB Super Smash of the Week
Cincinnati Reds vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays
20 Units, Take Toronto ML, The Reds are just 2-6 this season on the road with a moneyline of -100 to -125 and they are just 9-19 this season when playing a team with a losing record. The Reds are just 15-26 on the road this season and they are hitting just .226 as a team over their last 7 games previous to last night’s game. The Jays are starting to hit the ball a lot better and their bullpen has been solid at home this season with an ERA of just 2.87 over 97.3 innings. The Jays are 6-2 this season when Jesse Litsch (7-4, 4.06 ERA) has pitched as a dog and he has only allowed walked 7 batters over his last 10 starts. I look for Litsch to bounce back strong at home tonight after a couple of rough starts and the Reds bullpen have struggled on the road this season with an ERA of 4.61. We are getting great value here with the Toronto Blue Jays so take them as my MLB Super Smash of the Week as my huge overall MLB run continues.
Root
Chairman- Astros
Millionaire- Reds
Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections
5000* BASEBALL WINNER
Minnesota w/Baker +100
Jorge Gonzalez 25* Grand Slam
Cincinnati Reds vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: Cincinnati Reds
The Reds may have the best kept secret in the first half of the baseball season. The secret is Edinson Volquez. He is 10-2 on the season with a league leading 1.71 ERA and 110 strikeouts. Volquez’s last start was in Yankee stadium and did not faze the youngster. Hit pitched seven innings and only allowed 2 runs to a hot hitting Yankee team at the time of the game. The Reds have won eight of Volquez’s last nine starts. The Reds have seven straight when Volquez takes the mound and their opponent scored five or more runs in the previous game. The Blue Jays are have lost their last four games as an underdog and when Jesse Litsch has started a game.
Brandon Lovell
20 Star MLB CIN/TOR UNDER 8
The Millionaires Club Guaranteed Selections
CLEVE INDIANS - 165
VEGAS RUNNER
SFG 1.5 (-140) vs CLE 3* MLB BEST BET of the DAY
3* WNBA BEST BET of the DAY
SACRAMENTO MONARCHS +6 (-120)
Buy the 1/2 Point and lay the 10cents to take this number to +6
Stan Sharp Double-Dime Bet
Cleveland
INDIAN COWBOY
Detroit Shock -6 (POD)
This might end up being the POD but as per now, it is simply a selection until I get to do the MLB card on Thursday. The research for this game is pasted below but long story short here is that you get a proud Detroit team coming back home after getting drilled on the road by Connecticut and this is a home and home and you better believe that Bill Lambeer will get his girls fired up for this game and ironically Detroit sits as the public dog in this one slightly which makes this play even more attractive. I considered making this a 5* but will settle for a 3* as this is likely my POD for thursday as this is an early release: This is one of the advantages of doing the plays early and I would not be surprised if we went on a solid run these next few days in the wnba as I typically average 56% to 60% in the wnba as a run starts, then becomes stagnant and then I readjust my spreadsheets and the run once again starts. Remember, Detroit is 5-0 at home while Connecticut can lay a goose egg on the road. Detroit is 7-1 ATS when playing on a day's rest.
Monarchs/Lynx Over 154.5
154.5 is a fairly high total but given how this spread is placed, I like the over. Minny is a very fickle team, when they have revenge and when they are at home they play very well. Such is the case here against Sacramento, but don't forget, Sacramento could very well win this game outright as this is the same team that won 3 straight road games outright and nearly beat Indiana although they did cover that ballgame as well. Thus, taking Minny over Sacramento is not necessarily the safest choice, however, given that Minny has revenge and Sacramento is on the road being an active dog, the over here makes a decent amount of sense as this game could easily total over 160. The over is 4-1-1 in the Monarchs last 6 ballgames and hte over is 11-3 in the last 14 home games for the Lynx who shoot far better at home.
Washington Mystics +12
It seems that Detroit will indeed be my POD for tomorrow, without even looking at the baseball card, but a solid dog for tomorrow is indeed Washington. Look, if you take away Washington's terrible start to the first half, this team was actually competitive after a big come back in the 3rd quarter. This team comes off a loss and has been showing signs of improvement and has revenge against the Sparks who have the largest spread of the year placed on them as double-digit favorites. Imagine giving a team half of a quarter - that is exactly what a 12 point spread means in the wnba. Heck, if someone were to give you 12 points on a total of 145 that is indeed significant, including the fact 3 of its last 4 winning at Houston and Chicago. To be frank, I believe the oddsmakers are screwing over the Sparks backers here and I'll take the dog as the Mystics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games while the Sparks are 4-12 in their last 16 games when facing a team with a straight up losing record meaning they get placed a ridiculous spread on them in which they fail to cover.
The Hitman Guaranteed Selections
5000 LARGE BASEBALL WINNER
Houston with Rodrigez -140