GamblersWorld
TIP OF THE DAY
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Prediction: New York Yankees
The fans at Yankee Stadium will be treated to a game between the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees when they take their seats on Thursday. Jon Lester will be the starting pitcher for the Red Sox on this day. Lefthander Lester is 6-3 this season with a 3.48 ERA. Starting this game for the Yankees will be Andy Pettitte. The lefthander has a 3.98 ERA to go along with a 9-5 record this season. Oddsmakers currently have the Yankees listed as 130-moneyline favorites versus the Red Sox, while the game's total is sitting at 9½. The Red Sox were edged 7-6 by the Rays as a +130 road underdog last time out. The game's 11 runs made it OVER the posted over/under (7.5). Dustin Pedroia had four hits with three runs scored and two RBIs, including a solo home run for the Red Sox. Craig Hansen gave up three runs in less than an inning and was tagged with the loss. Jason Giambi belted a grand slam and the Yankees scored seven runs in the seventh inning on Wednesday, as they cruised past the Rangers 18-7. The Yankees won that game as -175 favorites, and the 25 runs sailed OVER the posted over/under (10.5). Giambi finished with six RBIs for the Yankees, and Alex Rodriguez had three RBIs and scored four runs. Edwar Ramirez tossed two shutout innings to earn the victory. Current streak: Boston has lost 5 straight games. Team records: Boston: 50-37 SU New York: 45-40 SU Boston most recently: When playing on Thursday are 6-4 Before playing NY Yankees are 5-5 After playing Tampa Bay are 6-4 After a loss are 5-5 New York most recently: When playing on Thursday are 8-2 Before playing Boston are 7-3 After playing Texas are 6-4 After a win are 6-4 A few trends to consider: Boston is 4-8 SU in their last 12 games when playing NY Yankees Boston is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees Boston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road Boston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games NY Yankees are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Boston NY Yankees are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games when playing Boston NY Yankees are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games at home
JB"s Computer Picks
Arizona Diamondbacks -160
Chicago White Sox -125
Detroit Tigers -140
Sports Monitor
Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants
TRENDS
The Giants are 15-26 at home. The Giants have lost 17 of their last 22 home games. Seven of Chicago's last nine games have gone over the total. The Cubs have won six of the last eight against San Francisco.
GAME SUMMARY
The NL Central-leading Cubs expect to get cleanup hitter Aramis Ramirez back in the lineup Thursday as they try to earn a rare road series win when they face Tim Lincecum and the San Francisco Giants.
SPORTS MONITOR PREDICTION
Cubs and Giants over the total
RON RAYMOND'S 5* CFL GAME OF THE WEEK
Hamilton Tigercats +10
ROCKDEMAN
FLORIDA MARLINS vs COLORADO ROCKIES
Play: FLORIDA MARLINS
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES vs ATLANTA BRAVES
Play: PHILLIES/BRAVES UNDER 8
LA DODGERS vs HOUSTON ASTROS
Play: DODGERS/ASTROS UNDER 8.5
King Creole
ARI / MIL Under 8
This afternoon's home plate Umpire in Arizona is ADRIAN JOHNSON. His YTD Record in the 2008 season is fairly strong at 7-13 O/U (65% Unders). Going back to last season, it's 8-20 O/U. In the 'what have you done for me lately' department, we note that he has gone a PERFECT 0-4 O/U in his last 4 games dating back to the middle of June. In those 4 games, he has allowed only 5.2 runs per game. In his most recent game, he worked the pitchers battle between the Angels and the Dodgers on Sunday. In that game, John Lackey took on Derek Lowe. What was the final score? How about 1-0! So don't be afraid that this afternoon's OU line is only 8 runs. It was only SEVEN On Sunday and still went Under by the LOWEST possible outcome that you can have in a baseball game. We also note that Johnson has gone 2-6 O/U in Righty vs Lefty pitching matchups this season... and 5-12 O/U in his short 2.5 year career 'behind the dish'. And finally, in that short career... he is a PERFECT 0-1 O/U "In this Park".
Arizona has had their problems scoring runs lately and as a result, they are 1-7-2 O/U In their last 10 games. And Milwaukee is also on a recent 'UNDER" Pace as well (2-7 O/U last 9). With the D'Backs facing a lefty today in Manny Parra, we note that they are 1-5 O/U in their last 6 home games versus southpaws. Also 0-7-1 O/U when playing off a loss... and 1-5-1 O/U in their last 6 favorite roles. The Brewers are 1-9 O/U as road dogs of +150 or higher... 0-5 O/U when playing off a win... 1-5 O/U vs the NL West... and 1-6 O/U in their last 6 versus righties. For the visitors, Manny Parra has looked REALY sharp in his last 3 starts. In two of 'em, he allowed ZERO earned runs (ERA of only 1.42). His last start on the road vs Minnesota resulted in 7 SGUTOUT innings and only TWO hits allowed. Brandon Webb's ERA at home vs the Brew-Crew is only 1.22 in 3 starts dating back to the 2005 season. He's also 1-4-1 O/U In his last 6 starts overall. Another "Getaway Day' UNDER.
Vernon Croy 20 Unit MLB AL Smash of the Night
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Pick: New York Yankees
20 Units, Take the NY Yankees ML, This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and Andy Pettitte (9-5, 3.98 ERA) has pitched extremely solid over his last 3 starts with an ERA of just 0.95 while striking out 17 batters over 19 innings. The Yankees are 15-7 at home this season when the posted total is 9 to 9.5 and Boston is now just 4-8 in their last 12 games as a road dog of +100 to +125. The Yankees are 7-1 in Pettitte's last 8 starts and the Red Sox are just 2-4 in John Lester's (6-3, 3.48 ERA) last 6 road starts. Take the Yankees at home as my MLB AL Smash of the Week
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
HOU / LOS Over 8.5
OVER in Houston Yesterdays game was the second 4-1 game in this four game series. However, sandwiched between the 4-1 games was a 7-6 ballgame and that is the type of result expected in Thursdays series finale. The Dodgers have pounded out 29 hits so far in this series and it appears their bats may finally be coming around. After stranding ten runners on base and scoring just one run on Monday, the Dodgers have responded by tallying 11 runs in the last two games. Chad Billingsley gets the ball for the Dodgers tonight and hes been solid in his recent outings. However, he is just 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA in his three career starts against the Astros. Billingsley has been roughed up in his last two outings versus the Astros and Houston comes into this game having won four of their last six match-ups with Los Angeles. However, the Astros pitching situation could also be shaky this afternoon. Brandon Backe gets the start for Houston and he is coming off of a very rough outing against Boston over the weekend. Also, Backe struggled in his only career outing against the Dodgers. Backe has allowed four earned runs or more in four of his last six starts! Backe has also allowed an amazing twenty homers already this season! He has also not fared well in daytime outings in his career as hes 6-10 with a 6.58 ERA. Backe is supported by a Houston bullpen whose ERA of 4.14 ranks them 22nd out of the 30 teams in the majors. As you can see, that means its likely to be runs throughout this contest for the Dodgers but look for the Astros to be right there with them in this high-scoring affair as they add to Billingsleys history of struggles against them. Look for this to be a third straight poor outing versus the Astros for the Dodgers right-hander as he faces a Houston club looking to salvage a split in this series.
Keith Martin
Top Play
Kansas City Royals Under 9.5 5
Medium Play
Chicago Cubs Over 7.0 3
Regular Play
Los Angeles Dodgers (M: -129.0)
Milwaukee Brewers (M: 154.0)
Chicago Cubs (M: 126.0)
New York Yankees (M: -141.0)
Baltimore Orioles (M: -149.0)
Cincinnati Reds (M: -152.0)
Philadelphia Phillie (M: -116.0)
Oakland Athletics (M: 116.0)
Seattle Mariners (M: 126.0)
Washington Nationals Under 9.0
Philadelphia Phillie Under 7.5
Florida Marlins Under 10.5
Last 4 Days
32-10 +37.5
totals 18-6 +19
sides 14-4 +18.5
Seabastian
20* LAD
20* FLA
200* CINN
200* CUBS
King Maker
Los Angeles Dodgers -125
Dodgers/Astros UNDER 8.5
GINA
Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners
The Tigers have taken five of the last six contests versus the Mariners and nine of its last 13 in Seattle.
Detroit will send Justin Verlander (4-9, 4.42) to the hill. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA in his last four starts, but has pitched horrible away from home, just 1-5 with a 5.11 ERA in his last seven road starts. Seattle counters with right-hander Carlos Silva (4-9, 5.69). Silva is 2-4 with a 5.44 ERA at home this season and is 5-5 with a 5.78 ERA in 14 career outings, including 13 starts against the Tigers.
Go with the Tigers. Detroit's Justin Verlander is 5-1 with a 2.90 ERA in six career stats versus the Mariners and Detroit has won five of his last 6 starts versus Seattle. The Mariners haven't played well at home, dropping 10 of its last 13 at Safeco Field and Silva's last 5 home starts.
Detroit Tigers - 140
Dwayne Bryant
Oakland A's at Chicago White Sox
The Pick: Oakland A's +115
Justin Duchscherer has been phenomenal for the A's this season. Duchscherer has allowed only four homeruns in his 13 starts. He owns a 1.91 ERA on the season, including 1.64 at night and 1.45 last month (4-1). Opponents are batting just .197 against Duchscherer, including .185 at night and .165 last month. Opponents slugging percentage is a very weak .281, including .267 at night and .252 last month. Opponents on-base percentage is also low (.258) and that includes .227 at night and .232 last month. As you can tell by everything I just mentioned, Duchscherer has gotten better with each passing month (pretty scary for his opponents). Duchscherer also has the advantage of facing the ChiSox for the first time.The White Sox send Javier Vazquez to the hill. Vazquez may be 5-1 at home, but his 4.68 ERA shows him to be quite beatable. He owns a 4.95 ERA and 1.48 WHIP at night and he had a terrible June, posting a 7.48 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in five starts. Opponents are batting .277 against Vazquez this season, including .285 at night and a whopping .330 last month. Opponents own a .334 on-base percentage (.348 at night, .409 last month) and .458 slugging percentage (.489 at night, .574 last month) against Vazquez this season. Compare those numbers to Duchscherer's numbers!These are clearly two pitchers heading in opposite directions. The White Sox are clearly the better hitting team, so Oakland is going to need pitching if they expect to win even one game in this four-game series. Having said that, tonight looks like their best chance.
Take Oakland and Duchscherer over the White Sox and Vazquez
CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS
Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: Milwaukee Brewers +155
THE P R E Z
Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks
PICK: Under 6* BIG GAME TRIPLE PLAY PAC 2 TOTALS + SIDE
Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers: Manny Parra vs. Brandon Webb
Umpire: Adrian Johnson
Conditions: Hot -- the roof will be closed for this afternoon tilt in the desert
Manny Parra (8-2, 3.95) has won six consecutive outings, posting a 2.41 ERA, and is unbeaten in 10 starts since losing at Houston on May 3. The rookie left-hander has given up three runs in his last 19 innings. He held the Diamondbacks to one run and four hits in seven innings on June 4, tying a career high with eight strikeouts in a 10-1 win.
Parra, the junior college player of the year by Baseball America in 2002 and the Milwaukee Brewers minor-league pitcher of the year last season included being voted the second best prospect in the organization, is finally figuring things out. The southpaw threw seven innings and allowed two hits and no runs while striking out six against the Twins, to end their 10-game winning streak. He's got dominating stuff. He's one of those pitchers that when he comes to the ballpark, he's got a chance to go nine innings.
The pre-season Parra hype has died down, the Brewers have their No. 2 starter, and he has the confidence when he takes the mound to win. Since sitting with a 5.79 ERA after a May 9 start, Parra has a 2.80 ERA in his last nine outings. The bad? The rookie has just a 73 strikeouts to 49 bases on balls. A general rule: left-handers with good stuff are good investments. Back Parra and let his talent work around the mediocre peripherals.
Brandon Webb (12-4, 3.21 ERA) is 3-4 with a 4.07 ERA in eight games since opening the season 9-0. The right-handed sinkerballer equaled a season high with eight strikeouts versus Florida on Saturday, allowing two runs in six innings of a 6-2 victory. The right-hander is facing Milwaukee for the first time this season. Webb is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his last four starts versus the Brewers, and has never lost in four outings against them in Arizona.
The talk around the handicapping water cooler is that Webb isn't the same pitcher that won the Cy Young in 2006 -- I have confidence in Webb and Team **** sources report that the so-called undisclosed injury-whispers are bogus. Webb has a 7.16 ERA in this last three starts to go with a 15 strikeouts to nine strikeouts 16.1 innings. These were acquired during a recent dead-arm slump. The only proof that Webb might be laboring or suffering a minor injury that could have changed his approach or altered his delivery was the ball he took off the hip by a Carlos Delgado line drive three starts ago. This very well could be the reason for a couple of poor starts, but his last outing against Florida offered no evidence he is hurting.
Is it possible that Webb is holding back from telling the team about a possible hip injury? No - not according to our sources. The coaches know him well enough that if he was hurting, it would affect his mechanics — the staff would have noticed.
Webb returns home, where he's more than comfortable pitching to the elements of a closed Chase Field roof. In seven home starts Webb is 6-1, the team is 6-1 in those starts, and his ERA is a tidy 3.88.
Webb versus Milwaukee hitters:
Bill Hall is 1-for-7
J.J. Hardy is 4-for-11; all singles
Corey Hart has never hit against Webb and he isn't likely to start today
Jason Kendall is 2-or-10
Rickie Weeks is 1-for-11
Russell Branyan is 5-for-9 with three extra base hits.
Ryan J. Braun is 0-for-3
Mike Cameron is 8-for-24 (.234) with a home run at Milwaukee
Craig Counsell is 0-for-4
Prince Fielder is 6-for-10
It is a mixed bag when looking at the numbers the Brewers have accumulated against Webb, but holding down the top and the middle of the order has proved to be something Webb can do. His 4-0 record at home speaks volumes. Any success that Milwaukee has had against Webb has come on the road.
Weeks can't figure out Webb, never has. Fielder does have six hits against Webb in 10 at-bats, but only one of those did any damage; a home run in Milwaukee. And Russell Branyan, who has done his best Babe Ruth imitation the last month-plus, is the streakiest hitter on this Brewers team save Bill Hall who can't hit right-handed pitching.
Parra versus Arizona hitters:
The Diamondbacks, who are a better hitting team against left-handed starters are 5-for-20 combined against Parra - but all five hits are singles.
Adrian Johnson is a solid balls and strikes umpire. He is a huge asset for Webb and Parra today. Both pitchers need some help from the home plate umpire to be dominating. Webb needs the low strike and Parra would like to have the black on the outside of the plate to right-handed hitters. Johnson supplies both. In Johnsons last four appearances behind home plate he has taken the following pitchers UNDER the total. No surprise that D. Lowe and John Lackey went under the seven, but Greg Smith and Kyle Kendrick combined for four runs; Greg Maddux and E. Bonine stayed UNDER; the Wild Thing from Colorado U. Jimenez and the Braves Jair Jurrjens stayed UNDER too. The UNDER is 20-8 in Johnsons last 28 games behind home plate.
The UNDER is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter; is 9-3 in Brewers last 12 games as an underdog.
The UNDER is 41-19-3 in Webbs last 63 starts vs. a team with a winning record and is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams.
The Diamondbacks are missing some key players to injury, and both pitchers have the ability (especially with Johnson behind the plate) to go nine innings. When two pitchers meet with the talent to throw a complete game, with a pitcher-friendly umpire, backing a reasonable UNDER is always favorable. The Vegas number of 8 (-105) is more than reasonable for these two pitchers and the matchups this afternoon in Arizona.
5 UNIT Play on UNDER in Arizona
Red Sox at New York Yankees
PICK: Under 6* BIG GAME TRIPLE PLAY PAC 2 TOTALS + SIDE
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
Pitchers: Jon Lester vs. Andy Pettitte
Umpire: Unannounced
Conditions: 85 degrees at first pitch with winds blowing out to left field.
Boston is 3-2 against New York this season. But that is all due to the hitting of their left fielder, Manny Ramirez. ManRam (10-for-19 with three homers and eight RBIs against the Yankees in 2008) desperately needs to break out of his current funk if Boston is to be competitive on the road. Manny has four straight multihit games against the Yanks but was hitless in 11 at-bats in the Tampa Bay series.
Andy Pettitte (9-5, 3.98 ERA) is 4-0 with a 1.00 ERA in his last four outings. The southpaw hasn't lost since May 23 and is aiming for his seventh straight win without a loss. The veteran left-hander won Saturday by allowing two runs in six innings in a 3-2 win over the New York Mets. He was outstanding in the effort and his peripherals this year are as good, or better, than in some of the lefty's most successful campaigns.
He is 6-0 in his last 8 starts dating back to May 23. During those 7 starts, Pettitte has a 3.61 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and a 6.8 K rate. One of those games was a very unlucky 10 hit-10 earned run outing against the Royals and he's thrown eight quality starts in his last 10 appearances.
Pettitte hasn't pitched against the Red Sox this season. He is better right now than he was last year at this time when he recorded a 2-1 record with a 5.40 ERA in six starts against Boston.
Jon Lester (6-3, 3.48) is 3-0 with a 3.35 ERA in his last six starts. Lester's worst outing of that stretch, though, came Saturday at Houston as he was tagged for a season-high six runs over five innings in an 11-10 loss. However, he pitched much better than his line indicates.
The Yankees aren't as productive against left-handed starters despite their 14-13 overall versus southpaws.
The Red Sox are playing shorthanded and their best hitter is slumping.
The UNDER is 9-3-1 in Lesters last 13 starts as an underdog. The UNDER is 11-2 in Pettittes last 13 starts as a home favorite.
Tonight's game in New York won't resemble last night’s slugfest. Expect a good old fashion pitching dual between two good left-handers. Both teams are desperately trying to keep pace with the red hot Tampa Bay Rays. While the wind is blowing towards death valley (the left field power alley in Ruth's house) all balls hit to right field tonight will die in flight.
6 UNIT Play on UNDER in New York
New York Mets at St Louis Cardinals
PICK: St Louis Cardinals 6* BIG GAME TRIPLE PLAY PAC 2 TOTALS + SIDE
New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals
Pitchers: Mike Pelfrey vs. Mitchell Boggs
Umpire: Paul Nauert
Conditions: Possible thundershowers; 80 degrees at first pitch with light winds blowing toward left field
Mitchell Boggs (3-0, 4.37 ERA) won for the third time in four starts Saturday allowing one run and four hits with a season-high six strikeouts in six innings of a 5-1 win at Kansas City. It was arguably the best we have seen the rookie throw the ball. He looked much more confident in his approach and he had better command of his entire arsenal.
The Cardinals improved to 4-0 in Boggs' starts with that win over KC. He has won games in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati and Boston's Fenway Park and on Saturday toppled a KC team that had won 11 of its past 12 games. A pitcher who had struck out only four and induced nine swinging misses in his first three starts woke up with six strikeouts in Saturday night's first four innings against the Royals. Boggs throws a hard sinker with uncommon movement. The rookie is a very confident pitcher right now.
Mike Pelfrey (5-6, 4.47 ERA) has won his last three starts - all on the road – but his ERA is close to six runs a game and he's been erratic in the process. The right-hander has walked 11 batters in his last 16.2 innings.
The Mets are playing like losers. They sport little activity that resembles a competitive spirit. They have been horrendous in the field and their bullpen is atrocious.
The Mets are hitting a paltry .254 against right-handers while the Cardinals are at their best in these situations hitting .276 and scoring nearly five runs per game.
Paul Nauert might have pitcher friendly numbers (2.32 strikeout to walk ratio with eight overs to 10 unders), but he is not considered a pitcher-friendly umpire. His K-zone fits into the league average and he does his best to accommodate QuesTec specifications. Last year he had a reasonable 2.08 K rate with 19 overs to 12 unders, but Pelfrey wont' be helped by Nauert tonight, and he will struggle much like he did in his last game against the Yanks.
The home team is 4-0 in Nauerts last 4 Thursday games behind home plate vs. St. Louis.
The Cardinals are 10-2 in their last 12 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game; 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter; 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record; 4-1 in their last 5 games on grass and are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
The Mets are 1-4 in Pelfreys last 5 starts vs. National League Central and 1-6 in Pelfreys last 7 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
The Cardinals are 5-2 in their last 7 games with Nauert behind home plate.
5 UNIT Play on St. Louis