TONY MATHEWS
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds
Selection: New York/Cincinnati Under 8
The New York Mets will use starting pitcher Johan Santana. Johan Santana has pitched well this season. In fact, Johan Santana has a 2.84 ERA on the season. In addition, Johan Santana has a 2.37 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Johan Santana pitching another great game today.
The Cincinnati Reds will use starting pitcher Johnny Cueto. Johnny Cueto has been pitching well as of late. In fact, Johnny Cueto has a 3.15 ERA in his last 3 starts. We also see Johnny Cueto pitching another great game today.
The bottom line, we see very little scoring happening in today's game.
Take the New York Mets/Cincinnati Reds Under 8
JOHN FINA
Selection: San Diego/St. Louis Under 7.5
Today we see a low-scoring game as the San Diego Padres do battle with the St. Louis Cardinals. One reason why we see a low-scoring game is because both these teams will be sending to the mound starting pitchers who have been pitching very well as of late. This says it all... The San Diego Padres Starting Pitcher (Jake Peavy) has a 1.35 ERA in his last 3 starts, while St. Louis Cardinals Starting Pitcher (Kyle Lohse) has a 0.86 ERA in his last 3 starts. As you can see, both these teams will be sending to the mound solid starting pitchers. The Under is 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings between these teams, we expect to see another low-scoring game tonight! Take the San Diego Padres/St. Louis Cardinals Under 7.5
JB's Computer Picks
Baltimore Orioles -110
St. Louis Cardinals -125
JEFFERSONSPORTS
EARLY RELEASE FOR THURS
ST. LOUIS+100
Goodfellasports
CFL
1 BOX- HAMILTION/ CLAGARY UNDER 52
WNBA
1 BOX- NY -7 over WASHINGTON
MLB
2 BOXES- DETRIOT -110 over BALITMORE
1 BOX- NY -150 over CINCY
STU FINER
Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles
We do not like the way the Detroit Tigers finished up before the break folks. There was a time where the Tigers had finally got it going. They came all the way back to become .500 and above. You have to remember the Tigers started out atrocious but as we said they played good ball for a long time.
The Tigers had a very important home series to close out the break. They had a four game set against the Twins. This wasn’t just any four game series folks. This was a series against a rival that they are chasing. They needed this series. At worst they needed a home split and get out of there.
Detroit lost the series in tough fashion. The Tigers lost the first three games all by one run. The Twins bull-pen and late clutch hitting was very evident in this series.
The Baltimore Orioles are a very good home baseball team folks. The Orioles are 25-16 in their building and are rested and ready to go. Look for the Tigers to still stumble and the Orioles to still surprise.
Baltimore Orioles (-)
National League
New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds
The Mets are one of the few teams that didn’t want to have a break. Most teams are looking forward to getting to the all-star break; the Mets on the other hand wished they played another week. In all-star interviews Wagner and Wright both said that they wished the all-star break would come next week.
The reason why the Mets wanted to continue on was their fantastic play the last week plus. This was a team that was sputtering around all season. They had to fire their manager and their pitching coach but they finally got their act together. Tonight is a different story though.
The Mets have won nine straight, but six of those nine came at home against two teams that are a combined 25 games under .500 (Rockies and Giants). Johnny Cueto is the real deal and at home the Reds will get the job done. Santana gives up the gopher ball and in this park you don’t need much to put it out. Take the Reds, this line is too good to pass up.
Cincinnati Reds (+)
San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals
It is time for the clock to strike midnight for Kyle Lohse folks. This is a pitcher that hasn’t won more than ten games in five years folks. For his career heading in to this season Kyle is eleven games under .500. He has never had an ERA in the three’s in his life. In fact he has had ERA’s closer to 5.00 than his current mark this season.
Kyle has now pitched 120 innings this season, it is that time of the year where those innings take their toll. Last season Kyle pitched just 131 innings, the season prior Kyle only pitched sixty one. Kyle has not pitched over the 175 inning mark since 2005 when he was a member of the Minnesota Twins.
Jake Peavy has been the lone bright spot on this pitching staff. This guy is still a guy that you can count on each and every time out there. Jake will pick up right where he left off. Peavy allowed just seven hits in his last two starts and no earned runs. Jake will improve his mark to 8-5 this season. The Padres will get the first game back.
San Diego Padres (+)
Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies
Ubaldo Jimenez goes tonight the Rockies and he has been there second best pitcher by far. Aarron Cook is the Rockies ace, as we saw him throw very well in the All-Star game last night and even get out of a bases load jam. Ubaldo actually has better stuff than Mr. Cook.
Jimenez has been throwing the ball very well in his last few starts. We feel that this break will only be a shot in the arm for Ubaldo. He has allowed a total of just four runs in his last three starts, all of which have been quality.
Jimenez has an ERA all the way down to the low four’s. Sure his record is bad but the Rockies had a first half to forget. They still play decent at home and Jimenez still loves his home mound. Ubaldo is 3-2 at home with an ERA of just 2.67. Look for the Rockies to get the job done here tonight at home.
Colorado Rockies (-)
Matty O'Shea
COL -1.5 (+150) vs PIT
Believe it or not, the defending National League champion Rockies still have an outside shot to win the NL West despite a very disappointing first half of the season. Colorado now has a clean slate to work with heading into the second half, and I think this team will start a positive run right away against the Pirates in the opener of a four-game series. Pittsburgh starting pitcher Paul Maholm has been hot lately, but the southpaw is just 1-4 in eight road starts with a 4.81 ERA. The Rockies are hitting .303 against lefties at home and will send righty Ubaldo Jimenez to the mound in search of his third straight home win. Jimenez has seen his teammates win his last two home starts by a combined score of 15-2, and he has allowed just two runs in 14.1 innings of work during that stretch. In addition, 11 of Colorado's last 14 home wins have been decided by two runs or more. Take a shot with the Rox on the runline here as my Single Dime MLB Value Play O' the Day.
DUNKEL
The Mets start the second half with a nine-game winning streak, but come into Cincinnati with just a 4-7 record as a road favorite between -125 and -150. The Reds are the pick (+135) according to Dunkel, which has Cincinnati favored straight up by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+135). Here are all of today's games.
THURSDAY, JULY 17
Game 951-952: NY Mets at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Santana) 16.512; Cincinnati (Cueto) 16.641
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+135); Over
Game 953-954: San Diego at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Peavy) 14.754; St. Louis (Lohse) 14.215
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-105); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-105); Under
Game 955-956: Pittsburgh at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Maholm) 14.562; Colorado (Jimenez) 13.487
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Colorado (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+125); Over
Game 957-958: Detroit at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Rogers) 15.045; Baltimore (Olson) 16.122
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-110); 10
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-110); Over
Jeff Scott Sports
2 UNIT PLAY
BALTIMORE/ Detroit Over 10
The Over is 9-3-1 in Rogers' last 13 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5 and 9-1-1 in his last 11 starts as a road favorite, while the Over is 20-8-3 in Orioles last 31 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 5-1-1 in Olsons last 7 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Here another little trend for you: The Over is 9-1-1 in the last 11 game 1's on a series for Baltimore, with the average total runs being 12 rpg, including a 4-0 Over mark in their last 4 home series openers, with the total runs scored there being 12.8 rpg. Only one of those 11 in this trend has failed to score 10 runs or more. Baltimore comes in having scored 5.4 rpg in their last 7 games, but the have given up 7.1 rpg over that same stretch. The Orioles also put 5.1 rpg on the board at home and 5 rpg at night. THey will be taking on an inconsistent Kenny Rogers, who has a 4.63 ERA overall, including a 4.75 ERA on the road and a 4.36 ERA at night, with those night games averaging 10.6 rpg. Kenny also has a 5.18 career era vs the O's, including a 5.23 ERA in his last 5 trips to Baltimore. He will be opposed by a struggling Garrett Olson, who comes in with a 5.65 ERA overall, including a 4.28 ERA at home and a 6.55 ERA at night, plus he has really been bad in his last 6 starts, posting a 1.86 WHIP and an 8.38 ERA. Not very good numbers when facing a Detroit squad that scores 5.1 rpg, hits .284 and has a .355 OBP vs lefty starters on the year. Detroit also hits .286 and puts 5.5 rpg on the board at night. The Tigers do struggle to score on the road, but they are swinging the bat well right now, plus they get Ordonez back for this one, so I look for them to hit Olsen hard and get 5 or 6 runs off of him before he turn the ball over to a struggling pen, while the resurgent Orioles offense should be able to get enough off of Kenny, before they turn the ball over to a bullpen that has a 4.72 ERA on the road. Should be a fun one with alot of runs.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
UNDER Pirates/Rockies
Pat Maholm of the Pirates and Ubaldo Jimenez of the Rockies are both in solid current form and conditions are favorable for them to continue their solid runs on Thursday night. With some rain cooled air in the area, some favorable pitching conditions could be on tap at Coors Field tonight. However, its not as if these two hurlers need much help from the weather tonight. Colorados Jimenez is 3-3 in his last seven starts but note the fantastic 2.28 ERA. Also, the Rockies right-hander has thrived at home this season as hes 3-2 at Coors Field with a 2.67 ERA and an amazing .214 BAA. Those are gaudy numbers for pitching in thin air of Colorado and Jimenez was also rock solid in his only career start against the Pirates as he allowed just one earned run in seven innings against Pittsburgh. The key to this under tonight is that Jimenez is likely to be matched pitch for pitch by Mahlom of Pittsburgh! The Pirates southpaw is 1-0 with a 1.96 ERA in his last three starts and he hasnt lost in over two months! Also, the Pirates bullpen struggles are not a big concern here because Maholm is the workhorse of the Pittsburgh rotation and he has gone eight innings in each of his last two starts. The last time Maholm started a game at Coors Field he allowed just one run in seven innings in a solid 5-1 win last August. The Rockies continue to be ravaged by injuries and they have scored a TOTAL of just two runs in their last four games! As for the Pirates, they have scored just one run in two of their last three road games. They are unlikely to enjoy much success against Jimenez at Coors Field, where he thrives, and this one has Pitchers Duel written all over it. Play the UNDER in the Pirates/Rockies match-up on Thursday night at Coors Field.
John Ryan
NY Mets at Cincinnati Reds
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Reds – Beginning of another Mets collapse? Never sure of that, but Santana has pitched consistently well and the only reason he has a mediocre 8-7 record is due to the lack of run support. That lack of offense is expected to continue as the AiS projects that Reds starter Cueto will go 6 or more innings. Should this occur the Reds then have a 90% probability of winning the game. Cueto has gone a minimum of 6.3 IP in each of his last 3 starts and it stand to reason that he will have success against the Mets given the All-Star break rest. Another problem with Santana is that he is just not keeping the ball down in the zone and not getting enough ground ball outs. He has yielded 14 home runs this season, which is far better than the 33 he gave up all of last season. Still, for a lights out ace, this far too many home runs. He ranks 250th all pitchers (starters and relievers) in GB/FB ratio at 1.30. Reds rank 7th in baseball with 108 home runs.
Play on: Cincinnati
Vegas Experts
Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies
Rockies’ starter Ubaldo Jiminez has been particularly sharp of late (1.86 ERA L3 starts), particularly at home where he’s won his last two by a combined 15-2 margin. He’ll be countered by lefty Paul Maholm and the good news there for Colorado fans is that their team averages a healthy 5.2 runs/game vs. southpaws. Pittsburgh is an atrocious 4-22 on the road after giving up 9+ runs in their last game.
Play on: Colorado
Scott Rickenbach
Cincinnati Reds Run Line +1.5 runs -125 vs New York Mets @ 7:10 ET – Cueto vs Santana – This is a Free Pick opinion play only, not a star rated play. However, that is not to say that there is not value with the Reds on the run line in this situation! To be able to get the Reds at home with Johnny Cueto on the mound and to be able to lay very small juice and yet still cash a ticket with a one-run loss is quite a value! Yes, the Mets have been one of the hottest teams in the league recently but let’s not overlook what the Reds have done recently too. Also, with a 9-game winning streak underway, the last thing the Mets needed was the All Star break. However, for the Reds, after a tight 3-2 loss to the Brewers on Sunday, the All Star festivities provided a welcome break. Keep in mind that, before the loss to Milwaukee, Cincinnati had gone 7-2 in their last 9 games and they had averaged over 6 runs per game in their seven wins! Indeed they’ve been swinging the bats quite well and this is giving them confidence heading into this match-up with Johan Santana.
Even though Santana got the win earlier this season against the Reds he did allow ten hits in his six innings of work. He certainly was not unhittable and, in fact, Cincinnati has hit .339 against him in Santana’s three career appearances against the Reds. Also note that Santana has allowed 33 hits in his last 27 innings on the road and he’s facing the Reds at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark this evening. Note that playing the Reds +1.5 runs in their last 15 games would have netted a cool 12-3 record! In other words, Cincinnati has been avoiding the blowout losses recently and we certainly expect that to continue tonight! Note that, as hot as the Mets have been, playing New York at -1.5 runs in each of their last 17 games would have only netted you a 10-7 record.
With Cueto on the mound, an outright upset for the Reds is certainly possible here and it is also quite unlikely that the Mets, if they do win, will be able to create any kind of separation. Cueto struggled in his only start against the Mets but that was in New York. Note that in Cincinnati, the Reds right-hander is 5-3 and his 4.08 ERA at home is quite deceiving as teams are hitting just .226 against him at Great American Ballpark! Cueto has allowed three earned runs or less in eight of his ten starts at home! Behind another strong start from Cueto, this one turns into a true pitchers duel and that means there is great value with the Reds +1.5 runs here. Play Cincinnati on the run line.
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PIT Pirates under 9.5
DET Tigers
TONY KARPINSKI
San Diego Padres vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: St Louis Cardinals
Kyle Lohse and Jake Peavy may not have been All-Stars, but they've certainly pitched that way of late. The two will start opposite each other Thursday night when the St. Louis Cardinals and San Diego Padres open a four-game series at Bush Stadium. Lohse (11-2, 3.39 ERA) has been one of baseball's biggest surprises, going 8-0 with a 2.18 ERA in his last 10 starts with the Cardinals (53-43) winning nine of those games. I like STL at home behind the surprising Lohse on the bump. Play on the St Louis Cards