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DETROIT/BALTIMORE OVER
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DETROIT/BALTIMORE OVER 10
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Detroit/Baltimore Under 10
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Cards -120
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10* Cardinals -110
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BALTIMORE
Scott Spreitzer
Game: Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Over
I'm playing the Over in Thursday's contest between the Tigers and Orioles. Garrett Olson may own a 6-4 record entering tonight's tilt, but he's been rocked for a 6.30 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, and .299 BAA in his 21 starts over the last two seasons. I don't expect those numbers to get any better against the Tiger lineup. Detroit is clocking southpaws, going 7-1 in road night games, scoring an average of 6.8 runs per game. But Baltimore's offense is also in a strong spot tonight. They're scoring 5.8 runs per game in home night action against lefties, and face a struggling Kenny Rogers. The veteran lefty has allowed 15 earned runs and 41 base runners in his last four starts, spanning 26 innings. That's a 5.19 ERA & 1.58 WHIP. Rogers has started 15 road games going back to last season and he's been rocked for a 5.07 ERA in those outings. We have two struggling pitchers and two lineups that do their best work in tonight's situation. I'm playing the contest to sail OVER the posted total.
Brian Hansen
Game: Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
The Tigers will take advantage of an Orioles club that has lost seven of their last eight games. Even though Baltimore has been hitting the ball quite well their pitching staff can’t stop anyone. With Garrett Olson on the mound that is unlikely to change today. The Orioles left-hander is 1-3 with an 8.68 ERA in his last six starts. Olson will also have to contend with a Tigers club that, when it comes to hitting left-handers, is one of the top hitting teams in the league! Want more? The Orioles sticks could struggle tonight. They’ll be dealing with Kenny Rogers of the Tigers and he’s tough on left-handed batters. Baltimore relies on some key left-handed sticks for offensive production and they could be neutralized tonight. Also, the Tigers have defeated the Orioles five straight times and Baltimore hasn’t faced Rogers in three years. This is a big edge for Rogers as his offerings could prove a little tough for the Orioles in the early innings. By the time Baltimore “catches up” with Rogers they will already be down big on the scoreboard. The result should be a road rout for the Tigers and that’s why this is my Member Pick on Thursday.
Larry Ness
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies PM
Prediction: Colorado Rockies
The Rockies entered the second half of last season in fourth-place in the NL West but a terrific second-half charge got them into a one-game playoff with the Padres for the wild card spot. The Rockies won that playoff in dramatic fashion and rode the momentum of that win all the way to the World Series. While Colorado is also in fourth-place coming out of the break this year, things are MUCH different. The Rockies were a respectable 44-44 (5 1/2 games behind the division-leading Padres) last year but this year are a dismal 39-57 (minus-$1,868) coming out of the break (8 1/2 games behind the division-leading D'backs), a far cry from the team that wound up as MLB's biggest "money-maker" in '07 (plus-$2,466). Colorado enters tonight's game on a four-game losing streak but the team has won 13 of its last 20 home games. That spells good news vs the poor-traveling Pirates, who one again are struggling away from Pittsburgh. The Pirates entered this season with a 121-203 (.373) road mark the previous four seasons and through the All Star break are on pace to do even worse this year, having gone 15-28 (.349) on the road so far. Paul Maholm gets the start for Pittsburgh and the lefty has had all sorts of trouble on the road in his short career. The Pirates went 5-10 in his road starts in 2006 (6.25 ERA), 5-9 in 2007 (6.14 ERA) and so far in '08 are 2-6 (4.81 ERA). Pitching for the Rockies is Ubaldo Jimenez, who is 4-9 with a 4.22 ERA on the season. However, after beginning the year 1-6 with a 5.43 ERA, he's gone 3-3 with a 2.28 ERA in his last seven starts. Breaking his season's stats down home and away show he's 1-7 with a 5.82 ERA in 11 road starts (team is 1-10) but 3-2 with a 2.67 ERA in nine starts at home (team is 5-4). The Rockies are 4-1 over his last five home starts, as he's posted a 2.23 ERA (just eight ERs over 32.1 innings). Take the Rockies.
WUNDERDOG
San Diego at St. Louis
Pick: Game Total OVER 7.5
While he has dominated at home, Jake Peavy has been less-than average on the road where he has pitched to a 4.45 ERA. Peavy is also backed by a pen that has served up 2.7 additional runs per game. The Pads are 11-2 OVER on the road the past three seasons vs. winning teams when starting Peavy. A full 60% of Kyle Lohse's pitched games have exceeded this total. The OVER gets the call in this one.
Los Angeles at Phoenix
Pick: UNDER 176
Since their opener, Los Angeles has not seen a game reach this many points except in an OT game with Connecticut, and that includes two games played vs. Phoenix. Phoenix went through a very explosive offensive stretch in the middle of the season where they averaged 94 a game, but has since quieted down some producing just 87 points per game. The Sparks have held Phoenix below those numbers the last two times they have met, and seem to have found a way to slow this team down. The odds makers are still cranking out totals based on the 94 ppg stretch that Phoenix had, yet the numbers aren't as good lately, so we like the UNDER in this one.
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NATIONAL LEAGUE
N.Y. Mets (51-44) at Cincinnati (46-50)
The red-hot Mets look to keep rolling as they open the second half of the season by sending ace Johan Santana (8-7, 2.84 ERA) to the hill at Great American Ball Park against the Reds. New York won nine straight games heading into the All-Star break, scoring five or more runs in six of those games while allowing three runs or less seven times. The Mets swept a three-game home set from the Rockies last weekend, allowing just one run in the series and closing it out with Sunday’s 7-0 Sunday.
New York is 10-1 in its last 11 games, climbing back into the N.L. East race after firing manager Willie Randolph and replacing him with Jerry Manuel. The Mets are on further runs of 7-0 against losing teams, 46-21 after an off day and 6-2 behind Santana in series openers. On the flip side, they are 1-6 in Santana’s last seven starts overall and 0-4 in his last four road outings.
Cincinnati, which will counter with rookie right-hander Johnny Cueto (7-9, 4.67), has won seven of its last 10 games and is 5-0 in its last five against the N.L. East, 12-4 in its last 16 at home against winning teams, 8-3 in its last 11 against left-handers and 5-1 behind Cueto in series openers. However, the Reds are 2-6 in their last eight games after an off day.
This is the second series this season between these two teams. The Mets took two of three at Shea Stadium in May and are 6-2 in the last eight clashes.
Santana is 1-4 with a pair of no-decisions in his last seven outings, despite giving up just 11 earned runs over 45 innings (2.20 ERA) in that stretch. However, in his most recent outing on July 9 against San Francisco, he yielded no runs on three hits in five innings in a 5-0 home victory, Santana’s first win since June 1. During Santana’s run of bad luck, he’s still pitched at least six innings in 12 of 13 starts, with the win over the Giants – which was interrupted by a rain delay in the sixth inning – being the lone exception.
Cueto had a two-game win streak snapped July 9 on the road against the Chicago Cubs, allowing five runs (four earned) on eight hits in 6 2/3 innings in a 5-1 setback. The 22-year-old is 5-5 in his last 10 starts, after starting the season 2-4 with three no-decisions in his first nine. The Reds are 5-2 in Cueto’s last seven starts at home.
Santana is 4-4 with a 3.01 ERA in 10 road starts this year, and he’s 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA in three career appearances (two starts) against the Reds. On May 10, he gave up 10 hits but just three runs in six innings of a 12-6 home victory over Cincy. Meanwhile, Cueto is 5-3 with a 4.08 ERA in 10 home starts this year, and in his lone career start against the Mets on May 11, he gave up six runs on eight hits over 4 2/3 innings of an 8-3 road loss.
The the under is on streaks of 5-1 for the Mets overall, 6-1-3 for Santana overall, 5-0 with Cueto starting, 8-2 when Cueto goes at home and 7-3 in Cincy’s last 10 series openers.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
BEN BURNS
Mets (RL) @ Reds (RL)
PICK: Reds (RL)
It's true that the Mets were red hot entering the All Star Break. However, the Reds were also quietly playing very well before the break. In fact, they had won seven of their previous 10 games, most recently losing by a single run vs. Sabathia at Milwaukee. The Reds are back home this evening and I feel that they offer us excellent value, particularly vs. the run-line, where we're being given an extra 1.5 runs to work with.
Santana has started to round into form lately and is coming off a well-pitched game vs. the Giants. That was at home though and the Mets haven't fared very well in his recent starts away from Shea Stadium. In fact, they're 0-4 his last four road outings. It's also worth noting that Santana has a poor 5.56 ERA and 1.765 WHIP in two career starts vs. the Reds.
Cueto gets the call for Cincinnati and he's also been solid recently. In his last three starts, he's gone 2-1 with a 3.15 ERA, averaging nearly seven innings per start. For the season, he's 5-3 at home (Reds are 6-4) with a respectable 4.08 ERA and 1.203 WHIP. In fact, he's allowed three earned runs or less in six of his last starts here.
As a team, the Reds are 26-19 at home. They're also 5-2 their last seven games against southpaw starters, with the lone two losses both coming by a single run. Consider a play on CINCINNATI at +1.5 runs.
WILD BILL
Mets -140 (5 units)
Over 8 Mets-Reds (5 units)
Rockies -135 (5 units)
Tigers +100 (5 units)
Oscarxena Sports
San Diego -1.05 (3 Unit Play)
I missed out on the Padres as an underdog but I still like them in this spot tonight. San Diego has been a very disappointing team this year but because they play in the weak NL West if they were to get hot they could make a run at a playoff spot although that would be highly unlikely. However, all we need is for them to win tonight and I think we have the right pitcher on the mound to do it in Jake Peavy. Peavy on the year has a 2.47 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP and although his numbers are elevated on the road it was due to a bad start or two. Peavy has pitched well when starting against St. Louis as he is 3-2 with a 2.89 ERA and he has won three straight appearances against them. He will be opposed on the hill by surprising Kyle Lohse who has been extremely hot lately and is 11-2 on the year but he is 0-2 with a 7.05 ERA in his career against San Diego. Getting Peavy at a low price like this against Lohse is a bargain in my book and I will take the lowly Padres to get a road win to get the second half started right.
Cincinnati +1.31 (3 Unit Play)
The Reds have been playing well at home all year as they are 26-19 and have actually fared well against left handed starting pitching as they are 18-17 so far this year. They will take on one of the toughest left handers tonight in Johan Santana and the red hot Mets. Santana has been a victim of a lack of run support recently but was able to finally break his losing streak with a win against the Giants in his last start. Santana hasn't really pitched great against Cincinnati in his career as he is 1-0 but has a 5.40 ERA in three career games. The Reds will have rookie Johnny Cueto on the hill and after going through a rough patch he has settled in nicely as he has allowed only seven earned runs in his last three starts which equaled 20 innings pitched. The Mets have went 23-26 so far on the road this year and have a losing record against right handed starting pitching at 32-34 and while it is tough to go against a team as hot as they are right now I think the Reds are worth a look tonight.
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5* St Louis -105
Charlies Sports
500* Pads/Cards un 7
30* Mets-125
20* O's -115
20* Rockies -140
10* Mets/Reds un7
10* Pads +115 (free play)
Gina
San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals
San Diego Padres are just 3-7 in their last 10 road and St. Louis Cardinals are just 3-7 in its last 10 at home. However, St. Louis has beaten San Diego in four of the last five at Busch Stadium and 27 of the last 36.
San Diego will send Jake Peavy (7-5, 2.47), to the hill. The right-hander is 2-1 with a 1.35 ERA in his last three starts and went 3-2 with a 2.89 ERA in seven regular-season starts against the Cardinals. St. Louis counters with Kyle Lohse (11-2, 3.39 ERA), the right-hander is 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA in his last three starts, but 0-2 with a 7.04 ERA in three career starts against San Diego. Lohse is 5-1 with a 2.75 ERA in 11 home starts this season.
Go with the Cardinals at home with Lohse at the helm. St. Louis fruitless bats will struggle dealing with St. Louis' Kyle Lohse. The Cardinals are 10-1 in Lohse's last 11 starts, 5-0 his last five at home.
St. Louis Cardinals -110
Mr A
New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds
New York Mets have won their last nine games, four of its last 5 on the road and have won six of the last eight against Cincinnati.
New York's lefthander Johan Santana (8-7, 2.84 ERA) is 1-1 with a 2.37 ERA in his last three starts and 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA in three career starts against the Reds. Cincinnati counters with rookie Johnny Cueto (7-9, 4.67). The right-hander is 2-1 with a 3.15 ERA in his last three starts. Cueto allowed six runs on eight hits over 4 2/3 innings in an 8-3 lost against the Mets in his only start on May 1.
Take the hot New York Mets to continue their surge.
New York Mets -155
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