STU FINER
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
This line is just too good to pass up today for the Orioles. The Orioles are a good home baseball team. No they aren’t great but they are more than capable of getting the job done. After all the home team has won five of the last six games.
You have to remember the Orioles play in the toughest division in baseball. Sure the Blue Jays play in the same division, but look who has that distinct advantage at home. The Blue Jays are just 5-14 in their last nineteen road games. Overall the Jays are eight plus games under the .500 mark on the road.
Cabrera has a high ERA on the road but he hasn’t lost a single game. Look for him to continue his winning ways. He has cut down on the walks and his stuff is finally coming together.
Baltimore Orioles (-)
Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals
Don’t fall in to this trap right here. The trap is to take the Tampa Bay Rays. You look at the line and think to yourself well this line is low, the Rays will win. You look to see you have a decent starter and a much better team and you think you will pick a winner. You are wrong folks.
The Rays are not the same team on the road as they are at home. Tampa has a record of 39-16 at home, but on the road they are just 19-25. Yes the Rays have a lot more road games left this season. That is why we feel they will drop out of the race. They just don’t have the punch to get the job done on the road.
The Royals have a ton of young talent on their squad. From David DeJesus to Mike Aviles to Alex Gordon. They have enough guys to put some runs on the board. Matt Garza is not Scott Kazmir or James Sheilds, look for the home team to continue their dominance.
Kansas City Royals (+)
National League
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
We don’t like to trust Oliver Perez. We know he has pitched well against the Phillies this season. This is a different Phillies team. This is a team that knows they can beat the Mets at anytime. Just two nights ago the Mets blew a big lead in the ninth inning.
Believe it or not the Phillies are one of the best road teams in all of baseball. This is a team that is 27-23 on the road this season. Everyone talks about the Phillies and their home-field advantage. Everyone talks at how tough it is to play in that ball-park. The Phillies still have a winning record at home, but it is not as solid as it is away from good old Philadelphia.
Moyer has been great on the road this season. Jamie has nine wins for the season and five of them have come on the road. Overall Jamie is 5-3 with an ERA of 3.12 away from Citizens Bank Park. Look for the Phillies to take care of business.
Philadelphia Phillies (+)
Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants
Matt Cain has finally gotten himself locked in. It took Matt a long time to get going. His last two starts were outstanding and we can even take it one step further than that. The Giants young arm has pitched thirteen innings in his last two starts. In those 13 innings he has allowed just ten hits and three earned runs.
Matt has actually had just one bad start in his last eight. Only one time did he allow more than four runs and that was a start against the Dodgers in which he went six innings and allowed five runs. Not exactly terrible now was it?
You hear about Tim Lincecum and he is great, but Matt is still a pitcher that will blossom in to a ten time all-star. He will shut down this weak hitting ball club.
San Francisco Giants (-)
San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates have a legit line-up folks. This is a team that just goes out and tries to slug you to death. No they aren’t going to go out and win many 1-0 or 2-1 games this season. Just look at what they did yesterday. They scored eight runs on fourteen hits and won another road game. Tonight the Pirates return to a place where they win more often than not.
The Pirates are coming off their three game sweep against the Houston Astros. They were led by their star player. Jason Bay was just studly in this three game set. Jason went 7 for 14 with two home runs and five RBI’s, including a two run shot yesterday.
Can you believe the vast difference of the splits between these two teams? The Padres are 15-33 on the road, while the Pirates are 29-22 at home. Take the Pirates as they will continue their little hot streak for at least another day.
Pittsburgh Pirates (-)
Florida Marlins at Chicago Cubs
We love the Cubbies here tonight. The Cubs return home for the first time since the All-star break. It has actually been more than ten days since they played in Chicago. The Marlins on the other hand go on the road now after their disappointing series against the Atlanta Braves. It is time for the Marlins to begin their fade away.
The Cubs best starting pitcher goes tonight. Carlos Zambrano has been stellar all season. Not only is he 10-4 on the season, he is undefeated in Wrigley field. 5-0 this season with an ERA of just 2.25. This is a new and improved Zambrano. His walks, his strikeouts and of course his total pitchers are down. Look for him to make easy work of the Florida Marlins. He will be in here late in the game.
Chicago Cubs (-)
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals
This great series continues on here tonight. Tonight is going to be a little different. The Brewers send one of their two “aces” to the hill. I think we all saw what C.C. Sabathia did last night. You better believe that Ben will want to match C.C.'s last start! Like it or not he is the true ace now of the Brewers team. Ben is no bum though. Ben isn’t just some other pitcher. After all this was the NL’s All star game starter.
Ben has not had any problems while pitching on the road this season. Ben has been great no matter where he has pitched. Sheets is 6-1 with an ERA of just 2.84 and that is on the road. Overall he is 10-3 with an ERA of 2.88.
The Brewers have showed the w whole world they are for real. For our money we actually like the Brewers to over take the Cubs before the season is over.
Milwaukee Brewers (-)
SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Florida (53-48) at Chicago (59-42)
The Cubs return to Wrigley Field after a six-game road trip, sending ace right-hander Carlos Zambrano (10-4, 2.98 ERA) to the mound to open a four-game series against the Marlins. Chicago, which had lost five of six games before beating Arizona 10-6 Wednesday night, is an eye-popping 37-12 this season at the friendly confines and 40-12 in its last 52 games as a home favorite.
Florida, which will counter with left-hander Scott Olsen (6-4, 3.84), got drilled at home Wednesday night in a 9-4 loss to Atlanta. But the Marlins are still 9-5 in their last 14 games overall and 16-5 in Olsen’s last 21 starts against an N.L. Central opponent. Furthermore, the Marlins have owned the Cubs in this rivalry lately, winning the last 10 clashes, including four straight at Wrigley.
Zambrano has hit a bit of a speed bump recently, suffering three losses in his last six starts. On Saturday at Houston, he gave up four runs on six hits in 6 1/3 innings and got no real support on offense in a 4-1 setback. But the 27-year-old has thrown at least six innings in eight of his last nine outings.
The Marlins have won three of their last four behind Olsen. The 24-year-old got beat up a bit in a 9-5 home win over Philadelphia on Saturday, allowing four runs on eight hits in five innings, but he did enough to notch his first back-to-back winning decisions since April 20.
Zambrano is 5-0 with five no-decisions and a solid 2.25 ERA at home, and he’s 3-1 with a 2.54 ERA in seven career starts against Florida. Olsen is 2-1 with five no-decisions and a 4.93 ERA in eight road starts this year, and he’s 1-0 with a 3.80 ERA in four career starts against Chicago.
The under is 38-18-3 for the Cubs in their last 59 games as a chalk and 9-3 in Zambrano’s last 12 home starts. On the flip side, the over for Florida is 37-16-6 in its last 59 road games and 9-3 in Olsen’s last 12 starts, and in this rivalry, the total has gone high in 15 of the last 21 clashes overall and 14 of the last 20 at Wrigley Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO and OVER
Milwaukee (58-43) at St. Louis (57-46)
The Brewers, on the brink of first place in the National League Central, will give the ball to right-handed ace Ben Sheets (10-3, 2.88 ERA) as they try to sweep a four-game series against the division-rival Cardinals at Busch Stadium. Milwaukee, which got a complete game from CC Sabathia in a 3-0 win Wednesday, has won seven consecutive games (including six on the road) and is on additional runs of 16-4 in division play and 14-3 against winning teams.
St. Louis, which will send out right-hander Todd Wellemeyer (8-4, 4.22 ERA), is in a 2-6 slide and has lost seven of its last eight against Milwaukee, including the last five in a row.
The Brewers are 8-3 in their last 11 games behind Sheets, though he got a no-decision Saturday in an 8-5 win at San Francisco, allowing four runs (two earned) on nine hits in five innings. Sheets has been consistent on the hill all season, going six innings or more in 12 of his last 14 starts and 15 of 19 starts overall, including three complete games.
The Cardinals had lost five in row behind Wellemeyer, barely snapping that skid in a 6-5 home win over San Diego on Saturday. In that outing, Wellemeyer got the win despite allowing all five runs on five hits in 6 1/3 innings.
Sheets is 6-1 with a 2.84 ERA in 12 road outings this season, but he has struggled against the Cards, going 5-14 with a 4.28 ERA in 28 career starts, including 1-8 in his last nine against St. Louis. Wellemeyer, meanwhile, is 6-4 with a 5.08 ERA in 10 home starts this year and 0-1 with a 6.60 ERA in eight career appearances (one start) against Milwaukee.
The over is on an 8-4 run for Milwaukee and has cashed in six of Sheets’ last eight starts. But the under for St. Louis is on runs of 7-0 against winning teams and 6-0 with the Cardinals an underdog. Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 8-3-1 in 12 meetings this season, 5-1 in Sheets’ last six starts at Busch Stadium and 9-3-1 in Sheets’ last 13 starts overall against St. Louis.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Bob Akmens
St. Louis Cardinals +125
This is an unusual comp play for me in that there is no clearly discernible strength vs weakness matchup.
See, if you handicap for an living, you really want games where black matches up vs white - you don't want a lot of shades of grey - and a lot of "maybes."
Do I dislike Ben Sheets? Hardly. The Brewers are actually 7-3 his last 10 away from home - an extraordinary performance given the vast majority of pitchers are net losers away from home. And the guy's got a 2.88 ERA - which is like one-and-change 20 years ago.
So, why would I like the Cards as a dog here?
Several reasons: 1) Todd Wellemeyer's home numbers are actually equal-to or better than Sheet's road-numbers - particularly that ultimate arbiter stat: most net profit won.
2) This is no ordinary game or ordinary series. I've done this a long time and can never remember an entire league where just 3 teams are playing better than .535-ball. And those 3 teams are locked in a virtual-tie in the Central Division: the Cubbies, the Brewers and the Cards.
To make a broad generalization - but one that's often true - important series like this are often shaded toward the home-team for so many reasons, not the least of which is very large partisan crowds.
3) Managers often decide such series. I'm not a big fan of Ned Yost. Any guy who still brings in Eric Gagne - who makes my heart stop when I see him walk to the mound and I've bet the Brewers for large chunk of change - is not a good manager. But let's hope this no-more-than-a-spectral-image of his former Cy Young-self comes into this game - because his career ERA vs St Louis is a lovely 8.00 or so.
In the other dugout, we have, in my estimation, the best manager in all of baseball, who knows when and how to make the right moves, and utilizes whatever talent he has available as optimally as I've seen.
You might guess I'm a big Tony LaRussa fan.
Look for the Cards to jump out with a game-one win as a +125 dog in this 8:15PM EDT matchup.
James Patrick
Brewers vs. Cardinals
The Brew Crew and Cardinals hook up in the Gateway to the West and Milwaukee sends Ben Sheets to the hill. The past 12 times Sheets has faced St. Louis the game has surpassed the total at a 9-3 rate. Our selection in Major League Baseball is the Brewers-Cardinals Over the Total.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Kansas City
The Royals open a four game series with the Rays in Kansas City this evening when Gil Meche takes on Matt Garza. Life on the road during the month of July has been real tough on the Jays the last two seasons as evidenced by its 2-19 mark the last two seasons. With Meche's 3.82 ERA at home considerably stronger than his 5..25 ERA on the road this season and Garza's 5.91 road ERA dramatically worse than his 2.10 home ERA.
Big Al McMordie
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Over
On Thursday afternoon, our complimentary selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles 'over' the total. These two teams completed about two-thirds of their game on Wednesday night before foul weather halted the proceedings and they will resume play of that game at noon and then play this second game after that concludes. Righthanded ace Roy Halladay will go for the Jays, while the talented but inconsistent righthander Daniel Cabrera will take the mound for the Orioles. The O's have found some pop in their bats in the second half so far, scoring five or more runs in five of six games since the return from the break. Third baseman Melvin Mora received some additional cortisone shots in his sore shoulder and that, along with the three days off, seem to have worked wonders for the 36-year-old cornerman as he has been just about the hottest hitter in baseball the past six games. Mora may follow in the footsteps of fellow Oriole Luke Scott. Scott, the O's outfielder acquired from the Astros in the Tejada deal during the offseason, was awarded the AL Player of the Week award last week by hitting .528 with three homers and six RBI. Not counting Wednesday's rain-shortened game, the 'over' is 14-2 in the last sixteen meetings and 7-1 in the last eight at Camden Yards. Take the 'over'.
Scott Ferrall
BALTIMORE +125 over Jays and Halladay--Cabrera goes up against the Toronto ace, but it's the Orioles bats that get it done here. Plus, everyone will be laying action on Halladay, so go the other way and make some dough
Nationals +130 at San Fran--Redding and the Nats get lucky in the Bay against Matt Cain
PHILLIES and MOYER +110 over Oli Perez and the Mets at Shea--New York can't close the deal and lose the rubber game. Moyer is junk at it's best and he'll make the Mets look silly in Queens
Dave Cokin
SD Padres and PIT Pirates
Take SD Padres
I know this may come as a shock, but the Padres are on another losing streak as they head to Pittsburgh. But hey, even the Friars win one on occasion, and they can't have a better shot than tonight as they get to face overmatched rookie Yoslan Herrera. I have no idea why Herrera keeps getting sent out there by the Bucs, as he doesn't look to have big league stuff. With Clay Hensley sharp since his return, I'll make a rare call on the Padres to garner a win.
Jim Feist
TB Rays and KC Royals
Take Under
The Rays continue to hold onto first place in the AL East over the Red Sox and Yankees. Mat Garza has been pitching well of late, especially his last outing, where he allowed just two hits in 7 2/3 innings for a shutout win over the Blue Jays. In fact, Garza has allowed more than three earned runs just once in his last seven starts. Gil Meche goes for the Royals tongith. Meche is 7-9 on the year with a 4.48 era. Meche has also pitched well of late, allowing just one earned run his last game versus the White Sox. Meche has also struck out 94 batters on the season verses just 43 walks. We look for a tight pitchers duel here on Thursday evening, so we'll go UNDER!!
Karl Garrett
San Diego at PITTSBURGH
Tonight I like the offense to carry the night in the Steel City, as the Padres and Pirates combine for a high-scoring contest.
Pittsburgh just scored 25 runs in sweeping the Astros in Houston, and they have been OVER the total in 3 of their last 4 with a push in the mix.
The Padres come to town on a 4-1-1 OVER clip their last 6, and they should be able to get their licks in against Yoslan Herrera who has allowed a whopping 13 runs in just 6 innings of work since his call up to the rotation.
Clay Hensley opposes, and is making his first start of the season for the Friars, and all the G-Man has to say about that is; "good luck!"
Pittsburgh's bats are on fire right now, especially LaRoche, Bay, and McClouth. Look for plenty of runs to score in this one.
Take the OVER!
5♦ OVER
Bobby Maxwell
Milwaukee at ST. LOUIS +120
Going to grab the plus-money in this one with the Cardinals as they have had the number of Milwaukee's Ben Sheets, going 8-1 the last nine times they've faced the Brewers' ace.
Sheets (10-3, 2.88 ERA) started the All-Star game and then came back on Saturday and gave up four runs on nine hits in five innings to the Giants. Only once since 2005 have the Brewers beaten the Cardinals with Sheets on the hill. Earlier this season he gave up three runs on nine hits in seven innings of a 5-3 loss at home to St. Louis.
Todd Wellemeyer (8-4, 4.22 ERA) is on the hill for the Cardinals and even though he gave up five runs in 6.1 innings on Saturday, St. Louis still scored the 6-5 win over the Padres. Back on May 9 he gave up two unearned runs on six hits in six innings of a 4-3 loss in Milwaukee.
St. Louis is 11-4 in its last 15 as a home 'dog and 6-2 when Wellemeyer starts as a home 'dog. We're playing the Cards as they are 4-0 against Sheets in Busch Stadium. Grab the plus-money with St. Louis tonight.
2♦ ST. LOUIS
Sports Gambling Hotline
Toronto -135 at BALTIMORE
This afternoon we back Roy Halladay to once again master Baltimore.
The Jays righty is 4-0 over his last 5 starts against the Orioles, and he has bested them once earlier this season, working 8 innings of 4 run ball back in early June at the Rogers Centre.
Baltimore will go with Daniel Cabrera who hasn't fared all that well against Toronto, as the righty is 0-2 over his last 4 starts against the Blue Jays, allowing 15 runs in 21 innings of work.
Cabrera is coming off a home start that saw him escape with a no-decison although he allowed 6 runs in 5 innings of work. That upped his home ERA to 5.22 despite a perfect 3-0 mark at Camden Yards.
We see Cabrera absorbing his first home loss of the season this afternoon against Halladay and the Jays.
Play on Toronto.
4♦ TORONTO
JEFFERSONSPORTS
EARLY RELEASE FOR THURS
MLB
NY METS-125
CFL
WINNIPEG+7
Steve Merril
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Under
Last night’s game was suspended in the 6th inning due to rain and will be completed before this game today. This means the original start time (12:35 pm ET) has been pushed back until after the suspended game is completed. Both offenses struggled last night as the game was 1-1 in the sixth inning when suspended and this should continue in the second game today as my pitcher performance ratings predict a solid outing by both Halladay and Cabrera. Roy Halladay is coming off a rare loss last Saturday when he allowed an uncharacteristic 5 runs versus Tampa Bay. Halladay should bounce back with a strong showing tonight as he still has an excellent 2.94 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in all 20 starts this season with a powerful 125-24 strikeout/walk ratio. Baltimore’s Daniel Cabrera is also due for a bounce-back after allowed 7 runs versus Detroit last weekend. Cabrera entered that game with a 12-6-1 Under record in his first 19 starts this season and a solid 1.40 WHIP, so he should respond well today. This is also a quick revenge game for Cabrera as he just loss versus the Blue Jays on July 8th.
Play UNDER the total.
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