Winners Edge
Cubs / Brewers over 7 - 120 , 2 units
Colorado Rockies even , 2 units
LA Dodgers - 110 , 1 unit
Drew Gordon
St. Louis -120 at ATLANTA
Redbirds know full well the importance of this series with the Cubs and Brewers battling it out in Milwaukee... And its safe to say they've responded accordingly, crushing the Braves in 3 straight. Look St. Louis to break out the brooms tonight, as their offense gets a crack at the hardly impressive Mike Hampton in this one.
Rewind to the year 2003 and Mike Hampton was a key part of the Braves pitching staff, but let's not get caught living in the past. Fast forward to 2008, and its painfully clear he's got a ways to go before getting anywhere near that level (if ever again). In his first start back, he got rocked for 6 runs on 8 hits over just 4 innings, and most of that came with a comfortable 9-3 lead. Look guys, if he thought the Phillies offense was tough, wait until he gets a load of the hot-hitting Cardinals in this one. Note, St. Louis averages a hearty .273 against lefties on the road.
Opposing Hampton is the Cards Joel Piniero, who's admittingly been shaky over his last 3 stars, posting an 8.04 ERA. However, before you go jumping off the Cards bandwagon, note two things: A. St. Louis won 2 of those 3 starts. And B. Piniero has the advantage of facing a short-handed Braves batting order, with Chipper Jones on the DL, and Teixeira now an Angel, this is a perfect chance for him to get back on track.
As a final note, have you seen the Braves bullpen pitch lately? Because if you have, then there's no question who gets the edge, as Atlanta's 'pen has posted a ridiculous 9.68 ERA over thier last 10 games! For comparisons sake, the Cards bullpen has posted a 3.72 ERA over the same span. Needless to say, while Piniero and Hampton may be a close match up, right now the Braves 'pen is struggling mightily. In the end, look for the Cards to complete the sweep tonight at Turner!
Take St. Louis behind Piniero over Atlanta and Hampton in this MLB match up.
2♦ ST. LOUIS
Scott Delaney
Chicago Cubs
Why not take a shot with them? We certainly could be pushing the button too late, taking them on the last day of the series, after they've won the first three games, but the fact is the Cubs have won four straight and look to be back on track right now.
They went into Milwaukee and absolutely stunned the 1-2-3 pitching combination of CC Sabathia, Ben Sheets and Manny Parra for a total of 20 runs the past three nights. And now they get a crack at Dave Bush, who might be 4-2 with a 2.85 ERA at home, but he's also 0-4 in his last four starts against Chicago, which has battered him for 20 earned runs over the last 23 innings of service.
Not exactly the best looking formula, is it? Give me the Cubbies, and I'll even take Rich Harden to earn his first win for the Cubs, as he's 0-1 in his first three starts for them. He's pitched well enough to win in all of them; he just hasn't gotten the prize.
Today he does, as the Cubs exude domination in the N.L. Central.
2♦ CUBS
Ben Burns
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Under
Last night's game was an extremely high-scoring one. I expect a completely different result this afternoon though. For starters, neither team has hit well at all when playing during the afternoon. Even before scoring double-digits in runs yesterday evening, the Tigers were averaging 5.7 runs (.290 average) when playing underneath the lights. However, they enter this afternoon's game averaging just 3.9 runs when playing during the day, hitting only .254. Meanwhile, the Indians entered yesterday's game averaging 4.9 runs when playing during the evening. However, they enter this afternoon's game managing a mere 3.8 (.242 average) when playing during the day. Not surprisingly, the UNDER has been very profitable for both teams when playing during the afternoon. The Indians have seen the UNDER go 20-10-1 when playing during the day. The Tigers have seen the UNDER go 24-12-4 when they have done so. That's a combined mark of 44-22-5! This afternoon's pitchers are both excellent, too. Its true that Verlander got roughed up in his last start. However, it should also be noted that he had previously gone eight straight starts without allowing more than two earned runs. In his previous start, he allowed just three hits and a single run through 8 2/3 innings. He's seen the UNDER go 10-6-1 dating back to late April. Note that Verlander has been better during the day than he has been at night, too. In fact, opposing hitters are batting a mere .189 against him in this season's seven daytime starts. Carmona didn't look great last time out. However, that was his first start since May and I expect him to be better now that he's got a game under his belt. Note that he had a 3.10 ERA before getting hurt and that he was 19-8 last season. It's also important to note that Carmona has been excellent when pitching during the day the last couple of years. He only made one daytime start this season and he allowed just a single run through 7 1/3 innings. He struck out four without walking a single batter, allowing only four hits. That's a 1.23 ERA with opposing hitters batting only .143. Of course, that's a very small sample size. However, if we look back to last season for a larger sample size, we find that Carmona was 9-1 with a 2.14 ERA in his daytime starts! Verlander has faced the Indians twice this summer and he was solid in both outings. Last month, he held the Indians to three runs through seven complete innings, a game that finished with a final score of 4-2. Earlier this month, he was even better against them, allowing just two runs through seven complete innings. Meanwhile, we find that Carmona has allowed just four runs through 22 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Tigers, two of which stayed below the total. Look for a pitcher's duel that stays below the number. *Blue Chip
COMP
Cubs (RL) @ Brewers (RL)
PICK: Brewers (RL)
I've got a lot of respect for Rich Harden. In fact, when he's healthy, I believe that he's among the best in the game. That being said, I also believe that the Brewers offer plenty of value here. This is particularly true when considering that we can get them on the run-line (+1.5 runs) for a very fair price.
Let's start off by looking at Harden's last five starts, the most recent three of them coming while in a Cubs uniform. Harden pitched very well in all five of those starts, allowing two earned runs or less in each of them. However, his teams were just 1-4 in those games. Additionally, the lone win during that stretch came by a single run. It should also be noted that Harden only pitched more than five complete innings in two of those five starts. His most recent two starts resulted in losses of 2-0 (at Arizona) and 3-2 vs. Florida. He isn't likely to get all that much run support today either.
Like Harden, Bush has also been pitching very well recently. In fact, he has an excellent 2.14 ERA his last three starts with an outstanding 0.762 WHIP during that stretch. Actually, Bush has been terrific at home all season. In 10 home starts, he's gone 4-2 with a 2.85 ERA and 0.995 WHIP. The Brewers were 8-2 in those games. That includes a 4-0 mark his last four home starts and an 8-1 mark his last nine. Looking back to last season and we find the Brewers at 11-2 in Bush's last 13 home starts and 14-4 his last 18 here!
With this afternoon's game featuring a very low over/under line (some shops currently have 7, others have 7.5) runs are expected to again be at a premium. Naturally, getting an extra +1.5 runs to work with is even more valuable than it would be in a game which is/was expected to reach double-digits in runs. In danger of being swept at home in a 4-game series, by the Cubs, for the first time in five years, the Brewers come in as a desperate squad. Consider backing them on the run line.
ROBERT ROSS
St Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
Cards go for the 4-game sweep. Braves fielding a depleted lineup and starting oft-injured Mike Hampton on the mound. The Braves are 1-9 against the money line in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Take St. Louis!
Craig Trapp
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Chicago Cubs
Really like the Cubs today! Harden since coming over from Oakland has pitched wonderfully unfortunately he has not got the results to show for it. Harden (0-1, 1.04 ERA) has allowed two earned runs and eight hits in 17 1-3 innings over three starts since being traded to Chicago from Oakland on July 8. He's struck out 10 in each contest, and gave up a run and two hits in five innings of a 3-2, 12-inning loss to Florida on Saturday. The Cubs have dominated MIL at there own place going back for year now. In this series the Cubs have outscored the Brewers 20-7 and look for their first four-game sweep in Milwaukee since May 12-15, 2003. Look for them to give Harden his first win as a CUB take CHI.
Sammy Jankus
The Reverse Barometer
I rate my plays 3, 4 & 5 stars. Always play the OTHER SIDE of my game writeup.
LA Angels at NY Yankees
4* 'UNDER'
I think the linemaker really blew it here... he should have slapped at least a '12' on this slugfest for an O/U line! BOTH TEAMS come into this game on a major offensive roll: the Angels just put up 22 runs in a 3-game sweep of Boston while the Bronx Bombers posted 23 runs in their early-week series with Baltimore. If that pace continues (and why shouldn't it?) we can look for something in the neighborhood of 14-15 runs lighting up the board at Yankee Stadium this evening. To paraphrase that old song, "I'll take the HIGH ROAD and you take the low road and I'll get to the cashier's window before ya" ? which means your play is on UNDER THE TOTAL.
Matty O'Shea AL Underdog Play O' the Day
ANA (+145) vs NYY
I simply love the value on the hottest team in baseball going up against arguably the most overvalued team as a big road underdog. The Angels are 12-2 in their last 14 games overall and 13-3 in their last 16 as a dog. They are also the best road team in baseball and have gone 20-8 in their last 28 away from home. Meanwhile, the Yankees avoided getting swept in three games at home by the Orioles with a big victory on Wednesday, but they have lost four of the last six home meetings with LA. New York is also 1-3 the last four times after scoring 10 runs or more in the previous game. The Angels are hitting .352 against lefties in their last 10 games, which makes Andy Pettitte a nice target for the Yanks. Bet LA to pull off the upset as my Single Dime AL Underdog Play O' the Day.
Big Al
At 7:10pm ET our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals 'under' the total. On Wednesday night, the Nats "exploded" for five runs against this Philadelphia team. Right now, with the way Washington's offense has been performing, this team scoring five runs in a game is like the Texas Rangers scoring 25. Until their Wednesday night loss by a score of 8-5, the Nats had a streak of five straight games in which they scored two runs once, a single run once, and were shut out in the other three. That adds up to a total of three runs in a five game stretch. And more often than not, the Nats seem to pull their opposition into the same type of scoring drought in these games. Washington is headed toward a 100-loss season, and with the recent trade of their most effective relief pitcher (Jon Rauch) to the Diamondbacks for a second baseman prospect, you can pretty much pencil in those triple digit losses right now. Moreover, the Nats' best offensive player (and only All Star in 2008), shortstop Christian Guzman is listed as day-to-day with a thumb injury. Even counting the 13-run onslaught on Wednesday between these two teams, the under is still 9-4 in the last thirteen meetings between the division rivals. Finally, Washington has gone 'under' in 58 of its last 97 games as a home dog, and 42 of its last 67 games vs. right-handed starters. Take the 'under'.
Larry Ness
Oddsmaker Error
Florida Marlins
SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Arizona (55-52) at L.A. Dodgers (54-53)
The Diamondbacks give the ball to right-hander Brandon Webb (14-4, 3.14 ERA) to open a four-game weekend set on the road against the Dodgers and Derek Lowe (8-8, 3.74) in a battle between the N.L. West’s top two teams.
Arizona closed out a three-game series at San Diego on Wednesday with a 7-3 victory. The DBacks have won five of their last six games, all on the highway, and they are 26-11 in Webb’s last 37 starts overall and 13-6 in Webb’s last 19 road outings. Meanwhile, the Dodgers topped the Giants 4-0 last night to remain one game behind Arizona in the N.L. West standings. Los Angeles has won five of its last six and is on runs of 6-1 at home and 7-1 with Lowe facing an N.L. West opponent.
Arizona has won five of eight meetings with L.A. this season, and the DBacks are 7-1 in Webb’s last eight starts against the Dodgers.
The Diamondbacks have won in four of Webb’s last six starts, with the 29-year-old going 3-0 with three no-decisions. On Saturday at San Francisco, he got the win after allowing three runs on four hits in seven innings of a 5-3 victory.
The Dodgers have won four in a row behind Lowe, including a 6-0 rout of Washington on Saturday in which he threw eight innings of one-hit ball. Prior to that, on July 20, Lowe and Webb faced off in Arizona, with neither pitcher getting the decision in a 6-5 Los Angeles win.
Webb is 8-3 with a solid 2.59 ERA in 13 road starts this year, and he’s 9-3 with a 2.65 ERA in 15 career starts against Los Angeles. Lowe is 6-4 with a 2.71 ERA in 11 home starts this season, but he’s 4-6 with a 4.44 ERA in 14 career outings against the DBacks.
The over has cashed in four of the last five in this rivalry, and for Arizona, the over is on runs of 9-1 on the road and 7-1 overall. On the flip side, L.A. sports under streaks of 6-1 overall, 4-0 when Lowe pitches at home and 15-5 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (67-40) at N.Y. Yankees (59-48)
Fresh off a three-game sweep of the Red Sox at Fenway Pak, the red-hot Angels head south to Yankee Stadium, where Jon Garland (9-6, 4.30 ERA) is set to oppose veteran New York southpaw Andy Pettitte (12-7, 3.76) in the opener of a three-game weekend series.
Los Angeles capped its sweep in Boston with Wednesday’s 9-2 rout, improving to 12-2 in its last 14 games. The Halos are also 42-20 in their last 62 overall, 14-3 in their last 17 games against the A.L. East, and their 36-19 road record is the best in baseball.
New York wrapped up a three-game home series against Baltimore with Wednesday’s 13-3 victory, snapping a three-game slide that came on the heels of an eight-game winning streak that began after the All-Star break. Still, the Yankees remain on runs of 11-2 at home, 14-3 against the A.L. West and 8-2 in Pettitte’s last 10 starts.
These two teams haven’t met since last August, when L.A. took two out of three at home. However, New York is 5-1 in Pettitte’s last six home starts against the Angels.
The Angels have won their last two behind Garland, though he got beat up a bit Saturday at Baltimore, allowing five runs on seven hits in 5 1/3 innings in an 11-6 victory. In fact, in his last three starts, Garland has surrendered 14 earned runs in just 14 2/3 innings (9.00 ERA).
Pettitte is 9-2 with a 3.34 ERA in his last 11 starts, going at least six innings in all but one of those outings. On Saturday at Boston, he yielded three runs (one earned) on five hits in six innings of a 10-3 Yankees rout.
Garland is 6-2 with a 4.58 ERA in nine road starts this year, and he’s 3-5 with a 4.26 ERA in nine career starts against New York. Pettitte, meanwhile, is 12-6 with a 4.02 ERA in 22 career starts against Los Angeles.
The under for Los Angeles is on runs of 27-14-2 on the highway, 11-2-1 on the road against lefties, 7-1 in Garland’s last eight starts against the A.L. East and 10-3-2 in his last 15 starts overall. Meanwhile, the total has gone high in five straight for the Yanks, but the under is on runs for New York of 14-7-2 at home, 14-3 when Pettitte works at Yankee Stadium and 7-1 with Pettitte facing a winning team.
ATS ADVANTAGE:N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
Chicago White Sox (60-46) at Minnesota (59-48)
The Twins and Scott Baker (7-3, 3.37 ERA) close out a four-game home series against left-hander John Danks (8-4, 3.18) and the White Sox at the Metrodome. Minnesota beat the White Sox on Monday and Tuesday, but Chicago bounced back with an 8-3 victory last night to snap a three-game losing streak and boost their A.L. Central lead to 1½ games over the Twins. Despite the win, the White Sox are still 8-16 in their last 24 road contests, but they’re on a 5-1 run overall behind Danks.
The Twins saw a four-game winning streak come to a halt Wednesday, but they remain on runs of 35-17 at home, 12-3 in A.L. Central play and 6-0 against lefties.
The host is on an 11-3 tear in this rivalry in 2008, with the Twins going 5-1 in their last six home games versus the ChiSox going back to 2007.
Minnesota is 5-2 in Baker’s last seven starts, including an 11-4 rout at Cleveland on Saturday, in which Baker allowed three runs on five hits in five innings. Meanwhile, Chicago has won five of Danks’ last six road starts, including a 7-6 victory at Detroit on Saturday. In that outing, Danks allowed five runs on eight hits in six innings, but still got the victory.
Baker is 3-1 with a 2.38 ERA in seven home starts this year, but he’s posted a hefty 8.44 ERA in six career starts against Chicago, going 2-2. Similarly, Danks is 5-1 with a strong 2.31 ERA in 10 road starts this year, but he’s 2-3 with an inflated 7.06 ERA in six career efforts against Minnesota.
The over has cashed in six of the last seven in this rivalry and is on additional runs of 11-2-1 for the White Sox overall, 6-1-1 for the White Sox on the road and 5-0 with Baker starting against the Chicago.
ATS ADVANTAGE:MINNESOTA and OVER
IndianCowboy Comp
Braves +106
Braves continue to spiral in losses as they look to turn it around at home today again. Hampton continues to make his comeback for the Braves and remember, the Braves have simply gotten their butts handed to them by the Cardinals at home in this series. It seems that 65% of the public are taking the road fave here in the Cardinals. However, are they really siding with Joel Pineiro? I know the Braves are struggling, but Damn, Pineiro has given up the following hits of late:
6/27: 10 hits @ KC (8.22 era)
7/02: 11 hits (H) against Mets (7.2era)
7/08: 5 hits @ Philly (0 era)
7/13: 10 hits @ Pitt (9.54 era)
7/21: 10 hits (H) Milwaukee (4.5 era)
7/26: 10 hits @ Mets (11.25 era)
Pineiro has not faced the Braves this year. Hampton in his first start back in 4 innings gave up 8 hits and 6 runs to the Phillies at home for a 13.5 era. Horrible, yes. But, at least he is pitching again for the Braves and actually attempting to earn a paycheck. A bit surprised the total is just 10 here, if anything a lean on the Braves as well as an over. Given the Braves have stunk it up the last 2 ballgames, I think this game is likely to go the Braves and over here.
Write-up:
The Cardinals are just 1-6 when Pineiro is favored by this margin and the home team is 18-7 when Nelson is behind the plate. I believe the Braves losing streak ends today.
The Bookie Pays You:
With the Rangers getting done last night... We've now won 12 of our last
14 releases, THAT'S 86%! Since day one, we've done just what we
promise... CONSISTENTLY PRODUCE. Lets cut to the chase... Get on
the Cubs today as they take on the Brewers. We've done the homework,
and after analyzing the matchup, Chicago should win this one by at least
two runs. Chicago all the way today! **** Thanks.
The Hitman Guaranteed Selections
5000 LARGE PERFECT DIAMOND BLOWOUT WINNER
Philadelphia w/Kendrick -125
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on D-backs/Dodgers OVER 6.5
I know we have a couple solid pitchers on the mound here but oddsmakers have dipped too low with this line. The Over is 6-0 in Diamondbacks last 6 games as a favorite, 8-1 in Diamondbacks last 9 road games, and 6-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 overall. The Over is also 4-1 in Webb's last 5 starts overall. The Over is 5-1 in Lowe's last 6 starts vs. National League West and 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 series openers. Take the OVER.