JEFFERSONSPORTS
MLB EARLY RELEASE
CHICAGO CUBS-140
COLORADO+112
CFL
BC-2
Players of America
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
The Play: Milwaukee Brewers +130.0
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
A solid outing and we'll take those results last night. Yesterday was an excellent way to get things back on track and cash some big ones. Atlanta's woes continued, leaving runners stranded and, once again, choking dramatically in the late innings to cost us. However, our two remaining 3*'s came through in convincing fashion with the White Sox and the underdog Reds. A satisfying day, but its now time to zoom in on Thursday MLB action.
There's not much worth forcing on Thursday-a rather small, boring and very tight card. However, one game is worthy of a play in our eyes. At 2:05PM EST, the Cubs play part against Brewers again in Milwaukee. Chicago stole a nice one last night in Wisconsin and today's day game is looking to be a different story. Both of these teams are putting out a constant position battle atop the respective divisions but we look for Milwaukee to come a little more charged up than Chicago.
David Bush comes into this one for the Brewers at a measly 5-8 on the season with an ERA in the middle single digits. He did win his last start, however, and is 1-0 in his last three appearances. In those three games, David has thrown 21 very solid innings giving up just 16 hits and maintaining a WHIP of 0.76 and an ERA of just 2.13. After the starters, Milwaukee has also been more than impressive. The Brewer's bullpen has an averaged ERA of 2.68 in their last three games and one of 3.89 for the entire season. Those are some pretty solid numbers. Additionally, we all know the run support and offensive explosion inside the dugout of this team. Chicago has their weapons but Milwaukee is absolutely, positively capable of countering.
The Cubbies have elected to pitch the highly touted righty Rich Harden. Since being acquired by the Cubs, Harden is 0-1 overall. Harden is a solid addition to this squad but one man simply doesn't go out and win a ball game on a Thursday afternoon in Wisconsin very frequently. He is going to need some run support like this team got last night, and both squads are on a short rest so we'll see whose bats come out slugging.
The value on this one for the home team is too good to pass up. The Brewers currently stand at a +135 underdog and I don't care if you throw a five year old on the dirt.I'm jumping on them in this situation. As we stated above, there isn't much to write home about Thursday. Let's just play this one for 10 units and build on to a good thing we've got going ending the month of July.
Milwaukee 6, Chicago 2
LT Profits
2* Cubs/Brewers Under 7
Oddswiz
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Over
For tonight's play we look to the AL Central where the Twins and Chisox hook up for one more. These two are neck and neck in the standings and the Twins are looking to make up a little more ground by taking 3 of 4 from the Sox. This game opened up at Minnesota -127 but the early money came in on the Chisox pushing the number to where it sits now, -116. Interestingly enough, both pitchers, Danks for the Sox and Baker for the Twins, have had good years to date and have pitched great lately.......but both struggle against this particular opponent. Danks is 2-3 with an ERA over 7 against the Twins while Baker is 2-2 with an ERA over 8 against the Twins. We'll look for at least one of these pitchers troubles to continue tonight and will play the game to go over the posted total of 8 even.
3Daily Winners
Colorado Rockies vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Colorado Rockies
Call it a hunch, but Colorado is very tempting today. Jorge DeLaRosa has deplorable 6.75 ERA on the season for the Rockies, however has allowed three or less runs in three of last four starts. Colorado is 25-13 against the money line after batting .315 or better over a five game span and Florida is off big Mets series and may start a little flat in four game series. Anibal Sanchez makes first start since May '07 and is a wild card in this contest for the Fish. With the Rockies 5-1 in last two visits to South Florida and scoring 6.1 runs per game in last seven outings, we'll head for the Rocky Mountains on a live dog.
Wunderdog
Seattle at Texas
Pick: Texas -138
The Mariners have been a horrible team all season. Playing on the road against winning teams has not been too kind either, as they have put together just a 14-26 mark in their 40 games. The Rangers have kept in the wildcard race due to their ability to score runs, especially at home against RHP. The Rangers are 45-30 against RHP, but not getting it done against the lefties at 11-22. The Rangers have scored an amazing 186 runs in their last 25 games at home - good for 7.4 runs a game. To put that in perspective, the Mariners have produced eight or more runs in just 12 games all season. This presents a tough spot for them here because the Texas average is a total they have surpassed in just 12 of 107 games or 11% of the time. The Rangers take this one.
Larry Ness
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
PICK: Minnesota Twins
The Twins missed yet another opportunity to claim the top spot in the AL Central on Wednesday. The White Sox beat the Twins 8-3 last night, after the Twins had taken the first two games of the four-game set in the Metrodome. It marked the 10th time since June 25 in which the Twins had missed an opportunity to gain at least a share of the AL Central lead. Over the previous nine times, either Minnesota had lost in that situation, or the White Sox had matched a Twins' win. Anyway, the final game of the series is set for tonight, with John Danks meeting Scott Baker. Danks has been a major surprise in '08, considering the left-hander went 6-13 with a 5.50 ERA over 26 starts (team was 9-17) last year in his rookie season. Danks enters this game 8-4 with a 3.18 ERA in 21 starts and while his road ERA is 2.31 in 10 starts (team is 7-3), he comes in off three straight shaky performances, two of which have come on the road. Danks has allowed 24 hits and 14 ERs over 17.2 innings (7.13 ERA) and only the fact that the White Sox have scored 23 runs in those three games, has allowed him to 'escape' with two wins and a no-decision. The Twins were high on Scott Baker coming into this year, as he went 9-9 with a 4.26 ERA in '07. Baker missed about a month earlier this year with a groin injury and will take a 7-3 mark with a 3.38 ERA into this game (team is 10-6 in his 16 starts). He's pitched very well lately, going 5-1 with a 3.00 ERA over his last seven starts (team is 6-1) and I'll back him and the Twins tonight. The Twins are just 16-16 overall vs lefties in '08 but they are 11-5 here at the Metrodome vs left-handers. As for facing Danks, the Twins can't wait to get another shot at him. He owns a 7.06 ERA in six career starts vs the Twins, including allowing 21 hits and 13 ERs over 13.1 innings for an 8.78 ERA in three starts in '08. Go with the Twins.
CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS
DETROIT TIGERS VS CLEVELAND INDIANS
SELECTION: CLEVELAND INDIANS +115 POD
CHICAGO WHITE SOX VS MINNESOTA TWINS
SELECTION: MINNESOTA TWINS -140
Tony Karpinski
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins
The Twins are playing pretty good baseball and I like what Scott Baker has done so far this year. The right-hander is 7-3 with a 3.38 ERA in 16 games, including a 2-1 mark with a 3.60 ERA in his last three. Baker beat the White Sox in his only start against them this season.
Take the Minnesota Twins for the home win tonight over the White Sox. There's bound to be some degree of distraction for the White Sox tonight after news that they obtained Ken Griffey Jr. in a trade and I expect a letdown after a lineup and chemistry change.
John Danks will take the mound for the ChiSox and he's been the beneficiary of some good offense. The left-hander is 2-0 in his last three starts despite a 7.13 ERA. Danks has started three games against the Twins this year going 1-1 with an WHOPPING 8.78 ERA. TWINS WIN TONIGHT$$
Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections
5000* BASEBALL BLOWOUT WINNER
LA Dodgers w/Lowe -105
RDS
NYY Under 9.5 1.5* POD
ATL Over 9 1*
FL Under 10 1*
ARIZ Under 6.5 .5*
EZWINNERS CFL
3 STAR: MONTREAL (-9.5) over Hamilton
(Risking $330 to win $300)
Oscarxena Sports
Atlanta +1.07 (3 Unit Play)
My favorite umpire to bet Under is behind HP tonight in Jeff Nelson but I just can't pull the trigger on the Under here but I do like the Braves as small underdogs. Mike Hampton will make his second start of the season here and although he did not pitch well in his first start at Philadelphia I think he will settle down here tonight especially with Nelson's strike zone. Hampton has always pitched pretty well against the Cardinals as he is 10-8 with a 3.59 ERA in 21 starts against them. The Cardinals will counter with Joel Pineiro who is really scuffling lately as he is 1-1 but has a 6.49 ERA in six starts since June 27th. Nelson has went 15-8 for the home team so far this year and not sure that the Cardinals and Pineiro should be road favorites here so a good value play on the Braves here.
Steam On-Line Guaranteed Selections
5000* BASEBALL LATE STEAMER WINNER
Texas w/Harrison -135
VEGAS INSIDER
NYY (-167) vs ANA MLB 3* BEST BET of the DAY
I have always been straight and open with my guys...and I don't plan on ever changing that...so let me be the first to say, Tonight's 3* BEST BET is laying some heavy chalk and therefore, after picking up about 12 units last night...as a Pro-Capper, I would simply play it safe and and not risk hardly anything for the sole purpose of being able to market the fact that we have picked up ? units over the past 2-3 days...But, I have always told you that I make my living betting on my games and have done so for a very long time, for myself and my backers...and because of that, I always make sure that I bet like a "sharp" should and never stray from it since it has proven to produce profit...
So, I look at each day independently, with the understanding that as long as I am willing to always do the right things...it will eventually provide me with Profit, regardless of the fact we will also endure some losing, along with some winning days over the year...
Getting back to this Bet...after working on the entire board myself and then confirming with our sources...the NY YANKEES, even at -200 are the side offering the best opportunity to profit...
The Angles are coming off a huge series in Fenway, where they were able to get the sweep...and getting that 3rd game definately takes a lot of emotion and effort...Now they travel into Yankee Stadium for the 1st time this year, to face a NY team who will be looking to take it to them, after getting a much needed win against the Orioles to stop from getting swept themselves...
And getting Pettitte as our starter this evening will give us a huge edge in the starting pitching...and Garland who won his last game, has not been able to register wins in 2 Straight Games since the 2nd week of APRIL...
Then taking a look at both teams offensively...once again, although the Angels have been more efficient, the Yanks, especially playing at home...have much better numbers and should have a much easier time scoring runs off Garland, than the Angels will against Pettitte...
The Bottom Line is that this one isn't -170 by accident...instead, every factor that goes into making a line, points to a Yankee win Tonight and I do not want to miss the opportunity to pick up some Units...just because I had a bad month...Win or Lose...that kind of reasoning will always give the books the edge...and Win or Lose, I have never been afraid to make a wager, when I truely believe that we have a huge edge...So let's go ahead and end the Month, with a nice 3* BEST BET Winner on the NY YANKEES...VR
NYY / ANA Under 9.5 1* TOTAL
SEA (+130) vs TEX 1* ML WAGER
TEX / SEA Over 12 1* TOTAL
MIN / CWS Under 8 1* TOTAL