SCOTT FERRALL
BASEBALL LOCKS FOR THURSDAY
METS -240 and Johan Santana easily over the Padres and banks at Shea--they'll sweep SD because they blow
Volstad at +190 with the Marlins upsetting Hamels and the Phils at Citzens--I like the price and Hamels has 3 starts against FLA and 1 loss and 2 no decisions and the Phils lost all three games vs them
Seattle -125 at home with King Felix over Sonnanstine and the Rays in the Pacific Northwest
Detroit +125 at ChiSox--Miner over Vazquez because no one in their right mind will be betting on the Tigers in this one--except Ferrall
Texas +135 over Mussina and the Bombers--I actually think Moose will get lit up in the heat by the Rangers in Dallas--and don't forget I've hit every game in this series at Arlington so far
Toronto -120 over Oakland and Duchscherer, who had his start puched back a day (was scheduled for Wed)--the A's look like absolute shit right now
BASEBALL OVER-UNDERS FOR THURSDAY
TB-SEATT UNDER 8 RUNS
DET-CHISOX UNDER 10.5 RUNS
NY-TEX UNDER 12 RUNS
OAK-TOR OVER 7 RUNS
ATL-ARIZ OVER 10 RUNS
HOUS-CINCY OVER 9.5 RUNS
WASH-COLO OVER 9.5 RUNS
LA-CARDS UNDER 8.5 RUNS
FLA-PHILLY UNDER 9 RUNS
SD-NY OVER 7.5 RUNS
BASEBALL FREE B's FOR THURSDAY
St.Louis -140 and Kyle Lohse over Kershaw and the Dodgers at Busch--Lohse is a bad ass
Colorado -200 over Washington--How can you bet on the Nats and Bergmann (1-8) in the thin air. Jimenez and those hot Rockies bats are the take
Houston -140 at Cincy--Oswalt over Fogg in the Queen City--the Reds aren't playing well (2-8 in lats 10)
Arizona -155 over Atlanta in the desert--the Braves are slumpin ass and the D'Backs have a lot riding on it--Petit has a nice-low ERA of 3.03, while Morton, the Atl starter is 2-5 with an ERA of almost 7--he sucks
FOOTBALL FREE B's FOR THURSDAY
GIANTS +3 from the Lions--you've got to be kidding me-Detroit is favored ? Please
Browns -3.5 to Jets--Cleveland has to show they mean it this year, so they'll come out and jack up the crappy Gang Green
Pats -5.5 to Ravens--New England ain't losing to Baltimore--sorry !
Bears -3.5 to Chiefs--KC doesn't have a QB, then again neither does Chicago--but they are clearly deeper and better
Saints +3 from the Cards--Arizona always blows--it doesn't matter who they have. New Orleans is out for blood this year
Lou Diamond.
NO Saints and ARI Cardinals
Take Over
With coaches tipping their hands, some Pre-Seaon games can be just as strong, if not stronger, than regular season games. Find out why I have 3 easy NFL winners for today with my SPOT-ON analysis! Check it out! Both teams are beefing up their offenses and have some quality pre-season qb's that should give us opportunities to score all 4 quarters. Look for a high scoring affair here tonight.
Wunderdog
Baltimore at New England
Pick: Baltimore +5
It is going to be difficult psychologically for bettors to look at a New England game and resist them as just a mere 5 point favorite at home. What we must do however is keep this in perspective. This is an exhibition game! The logo on the helmets and regular season success and failure do not come into play here. But the oddsmakers are forced by the hand of the betting public to consider a few extra points. Even with that said over 60% have already pulled the trigger for the Pats in this one. The Pats opened the season in 2007 scoring 30+ points in their first eight regular-season games. A great start, right? Consider however they did not reach 30 in a single exhibition game. Brady threw seven passes in the opener last season. The result was 10 total points scored and a Patriot loss. Their's no doubt this offense will turn it on come September, but the preseason is a different animal all together. The Patriots have been an elite team for years,but over the last three exhibitionseasons they have been favored by 4 or more points three times and have not covered a single one. In contrast, we have the Baltimore Ravens with a first year coach in John Harbaugh. What does that mean? First year coaches are new for a reason - their teams were bad last season - bad enough to fire their head man. New coaches come in for one reason - to change things. They want to win from the start, more than entrenched coaches, and especially more than coaches of teams so good that have nothing to prove to anyone (i.e. the Pats). These first-year coaches want to change the culture of losing and as such, they put more of an emphasis on winning in the preseason. Does Harbaugh want to win here? Yes! Does Bellichick? He could really care less. The Patriots have dropped two of their last three ehibition home openers outright. We will back the more motivated Ravens here to keep this one close, or even steal one.
FAO Sports
Kansas City and Chicago,
Take Chicago
This is more of a play against K.C. then one for Chicago.Kansas City is 0-3 ATS and SU, the first game of the preseason. They have lost the first game of the preseason by an average of 8.33 PPG.Chicago is 1-1-1 in the first game of the preseason in the last 3 years.
Take Chicago
Paul Bovi
NO Saints and ARI Cardinals
Take Under
It will be Tyler Palko, Mark Brunell and Travis Lulay getting most of the snaps for the Saints while coach Whisenhunt looks for his inaugural preseason win after last years.5? 0-4, though several were close. The Saints are sitting the bulk of the offensive talent inclding Deuce, Devery and Marques and will pay more close attention to the defensive side here as that has been their Achilles heel. Zona in the desert gets it 16-13 Under
PlayByPlayInc.
NY GIANTS +3
YOURWINNINGPICKS
CLEVELAND BROWNS (-3) VS. New York Jets:The Jets are the play here as the QB question surrounding Gang Green will force coach Eric Mangini to play both Chad Pennington and Kellen Clemens for an extended amount of time here. Cleveland will play Brady Quinn a bunch and this will represent his first extended action as his rookie season was spent holding the clipboard. Jets are also 15-5 ATS in their last 20 preseason openers.
THE PICK: New York Jets (+3)
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-5) VS. Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens will start Kyle Boller at QB which is never a good thing even in preseason. The Pats should come out fast as this is their first action since losing Super Bowl 42 in shocking fashion. Pats are also 32-19 ATS in their last 51 preseason openers when giving less than 5.5.
THE PICK: New England Patriots (-5)
CHICAGO BEARS (-3) VS. Kansas City Chiefs: The Bears should beat up on the Chiefs here as KC breaks in a host of rookies on both sides of the ball and still have QB Brodie Croyle finding his way. Bears are looking for who will step up as QB and so Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton will look to open some eyes with their showing.
THE PICK: Chicago Bears (-3)
Gator
NY Giants @ Detroit UNDER 33 points
1 STAR SELECTION
The Super Bowl Champion Giants will be in uniform Thursday night for the first time since last season's ultimate triumph, as Eli Manning and company visit the Lions in the 2008 preseason opener for both teams.
New York has some immediate concerns to address on the defensive side of the football. Gone are ex-starters such as defensive end Michael Strahan, safety Gibril Wilson, and linebackers Reggie Torbor, and Kawika Mitchell. Additionally, many of the Giants' highest-profile players are expected to see only limited time, including Manning, running back Brandon Jacobs, and wideouts Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer. In fact, Burress might not play at all due to a lingering ankle injury, and might be joined on the shelf by Super Bowl hero David Tyree, who has spent the early stages of training camp on the Physically Unable to Perform list with a knee problem. QBs Anthony Wright and newcomers David Carr and rookie Andre Woodson will succeed Manning in the lineup at QB and see most of the action behind center for the champs.
Tom Coughlin is heartened that this post-Super Bowl training camp has been devoid of any major distractions but he is growing concerned with a number of minor but nagging injuries that have cut into the Giants New York Giants depth. The newest injury is starting right guard Chris Snee Chris Snee, who sat out with a sore shoulder and will have an MRI to see why he's experiencing discomfort. Backup guard Shane Olivea sat again and will have tests to determine the extent of the injury to his back. The receiver position has been hit hard, with Burress running on the side but that's it and others also unavailable. It looks as if rookie Mario Manningham will be out a while, as he has bleeding in his strained quad muscle.
Detroit, meanwhile, will be eager to witness the work of an offense that will take on a new look in 2008. Former coordinator Mike Martz was fired in the offseason, and has been succeeded by Jim Colletto, who is expected to take a more balanced approach to play-calling. Defensively, Detroit will be seeking strong initial returns from a revamped secondary.
There is only so much you can tell when a team is playing against itself. But a couple of things were clear from Lions camp: The defense is ahead of the offense, as it usually is at this stage, and the Lions are working hard on the running game. Detroit should have a fairly solid rotation at QB with Jon Kitna followed by backup quarterbacks Dan Orlovsky and Drew Stanton; however, we don't expect to see the ball thrown all over the lot with the team working on pounding the football.
Detroit knows that it can throw the football and that they have a couple of stud WRs, so there is no need for them to work on that part of their game. RUNNING the ball will be the gameplan here, and this is a new concept and scheme for the offensive line, so we don't expect it to be necessarily pretty. We don't expect the Giants to get much done either, being shorthanded at the receiving position, using a makeshift line, and the only good QB on their roster seeing very limited time on the field. Even Manning has not been sharp of late in camp.
Under these circumstances, we expect a low-scoring game with a lot of running plays that will burn the clock. New York has gone 3-0 UNDER in its last 3 NFLX road openers, and have seen 4 of their last 5 NFLX road openers go UNDER the total.
PROJECTED FINAL: NY GIANTS @ DETROIT UNDER 33 POINTS
Gator Report
NFLX 70% Super Situation:
NFLX Thursday: Play Under NFL teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points in the first two weeks of the pre-season, 42-16 Under last 5 seasons (72.4%)
PLAY: New Orleans / Arizona UNDER 36
NFLX Top Angles:
NFLX Thursday: New York Giants are 4-16 ATS on artificial turf since 1993.
NFLX Thursday: New York Jets are 9-1 ATS playing on the road with a total of 35 points or less since 1993.
NFLX Thursday: New England is 14-3 Under during the first two weeks of the preseason since 1993.
MLB 70% Super Situation:
MLB Thursday: Play Against MLB (AL) underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher with a team that averages <=4.2 runs per game against a team with a bullpen ERA<=3.33, with a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits per start. 52-11 SU since 1997 (82.5%)
PLAY: Toronto Blue Jays -120
MLB Top Angles:
MLB Thursday: Washington is 4-17 SU versus the National League West this year.
MLB Thursday: Bergmann (Wash) is 2-12 SU as an underdog of +100 or more this season.
MLB Thursday: Cincinnati is 7-0 SU against the money line versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Doc's Sports
Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Arizona D-Backs
The Braves have thrown in the towel on the 2008 season with the trading away of Tex and Smoltz and Chipper banged up. The Snakes have been front running in the NL West for the entire season and whenever the Dodgers get close they always seem to have a long homestand coming up against bad teams. They won the series against Pittsburgh and now will welcome in the Braves. Yusmeiro Petit will take the mound for the home squad and he has pitched well this season currently with a 3.03 E.R.A. In his last seven appearances he has allowed just seven runs and should be able to overpower a weak Braves line-up on Thursday.
Jimmy The Moose
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
Prediction: Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have a new coach who has brought a new attitude to the team. Baltimore has yet to announce a starting QB so expect Boeller, Smith and Flacco to play hard and try to impress once they get out there. The Ravens have a few RB's that are battling for playing time and they will look to make themselves known tonight. The Patriots starting unit won't see much time in this one. New England's Bill Bellichick doesn't put much stock into preseason, his Patriots have gone 2-2 SU in each of the last 3 preseason's. With the starters on both sides not playing much looks for the Ravens to outwork the Patriots tonight. Play on the Baltimore Ravens +.
Marc Lawrence
Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Houston Astros
The Astros and Reds open the first of a four-game series in the Queen City tonight when Roy Oswalt takes on Josh Fogg in a matchup of right handers. A combination of history and form comes to the forefront here as Oswalt is 19-4 in his career team starts against Cincinnati while Fogg is 5-10 against Houston. With Fogg owning an anemic 8.22 ERA at home this season, look for Oswalt to improve to 13-4 in his last 17 August team starts while Fogg drops to 5-13 during August here tonight.
Michael Cannon
NY Jets at CLEVELAND -3
Take the Browns tonight over the Jets.
I like the direction the Browns are heading and they will be eager to show their fans that they are ready to challenge for the AFC North title.
To do that they must play better defense, but with preseason games we all know it’s a pretty vanilla strategy.
But Romeo Crennell will have his defensive players ready to hit tonight, and their intensity should be enough to get the job done over the Jets.
On offense, the combination of Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn at quarterback should give the Brownies plenty of scoring opportunities for at least the first half.
The Jets have pretty good depth at quarterback too, but with Cleveland looking to take a major step in the division this year I can’t look past them at this price.
Take the Browns minus the points.
2♦ CLEVELAND
Sports Gambling Hotline
Kansas City +3 at CHICAGO
Last preseason, the KC Chiefs went a lackluster 0-4 in the preseason, then followed it up with a 4-12 regular season campaign.
We believe head coach Herm Edwards will want to put a little more emphasis on the preseason this go-round, and we expect Kansas City to come out tonight, and compete for all four quarters.
Under Edwards, the Chiefs are a positive 9-5 against the spread when catching points in the preseason, and we will take the points they are giving out tonight.
Chicago's quarterback situation is far from settled, as Rex Grossman continues to be an enigma, while Kyle Orton is not far behind in that role. It doesn't matter who starts to us, as we believe they are both busts.
Just don't trust the Bears to lay any points, even at home, as Da' Bears are just 1-5 against the math their last 6 as the preseason home chalk.
We expect Brodie Croyle to show marked improvement this season, and we will back the Chiefs plus the points to make a game of it tonight.
Play on KC.
2♦ KANSAS CITY
Karl Garrett
Kansas City at CHICAGO -3
Expect a field goal kicking battle tonight in the Windy City as a pair of inept offenses hit the gridiron at Soldier Field.
While it is true that the Bears did go 3-1 OVER the price in the preseason last year, the combination of Orton, Grossman, Hanie, and Hill doesn't exactly keep defensive coordinators awake at night trying to devise schemes to stop them.
Kansas City is on a prolonged UNDER roll of 6-2 the last two preseasons, and Herman Edwards also has issues at the QB slot, as Brodie Croyle and Damon Huard combined to lead the Chiefs to the uninspiring 4-12 regular season mark last year.
Field position expected to be at a premium tonight, and expect the field goal units to keep themselves busy in this preseason contest.
G-Man backing a LOW scoring game in this one.
1♦ UNDER