Wild Bill
Patriots -5 (5 units)
Chiefs +3 (5 units)
Arizona -2 (5 units)
Arizona-Saints Under 36 1/2 (5 units)
Pittsburgh -3 (5 units)
Eagles-Pittsburgh Under 33 1/2 (5 units)
Seattle +2 1/2 (5 units)
St L-Tenn Under 33 (5 units)
Dallas +3 (5 units)
Bengals +3 1/2 (5 units)
TONY STEVENS
MLB - TORONTO BLUE JAYS -120
CFL - TORONTO ARGONAUTS -2.5
Black Widow Sports
1* on New York Yankees -142
The Yankees send their Ace in Mike Mussina to go even the series with Texas Thursday. Mussina is 14-7 with a 3.44 ERA on the year. The Yankees would be in a terrible place without Mussina being as effective as he has been this season. Mussina has allowed a combined 5 earned runs in his last 3 starts against the Rangers, never allowing more than 2 runs in any of the three starts. The Yankees are 12-3 in Mussinas last 15 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Rangers are just 1-6 in Scott Feldman’s last 7 home starts. Take the Yankees on the Money Line.
Info Plays
3* on Marlins/Phillies OVER 9
A great totals system goes along with play in favor of the OVER 9 runs. Play Over - Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (FLORIDA) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season (NL), in August games. This is a 42-10 Totals System hitting 80.8% over the last 5 seasons backing the OVER. (+31.5 Units) $100 bettors have won $3,150 betting the OVER on all road teams in this spot. Bet the OVER 9 runs.
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on N.Y. Mets -1.5 -115
The Mets are worth every penny on the Run Line today. Instead of backing Johan Santana as a -200 favorite, we’ll minimize the juice knowing that the Mets will win this one by at least 2 runs Thursday. The Mets lost to the Padres last night, a game they really couldn’t afford to lose with as tight as this NL East race has been. But Johan Santana is their stopper, and he’s the one starter that can be trusted to get his team a victory when they need it most. Santana is 1-0 with a stellar 1.54 ERA through his last three starts. Santana owns a 2.89 ERA lifetime against the Padres in three starts against them. Santana is 57-20 after giving up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings since 1997. His teams are outscoring their foes by an average of 2.2 runs/game in this spot. That’s why I’ll take my chances with the Mets on the Run Line to win by at least 2 runs Thursday. Cash in with New York on the Run Line.
Dwayne Bryant
New York Yankees at Texas Rangers
Pick: New York Yankees -144
Mike Mussina is 5-1 with a 3.43 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and .293 OOBP on the road this season. The Yankees are 5-2 in Mussina's seven road starts. Mussina has made Quality Starts (at least 6 innings pitched, allowing 3 earned runs or less) in 8 of his last 9 starts against Texas. He only allowed 1 run in the other start, but it doesn't count as a Quality Start because he only went 5 innings. The Yankees are 12-3 in Mussina's last 15 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Texas is just 2-7 in Scott Feldman's home starts this season. Feldman owns a 4.80 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and .341 OOBP at home. Yankees hitters own a .650 slugging percentage (2 singles, 1 triple, 2 homers in 20 at-bats) against Feldman. When comparing their last three starts, Mussina (20 IP, 16 K, 3 BB) is in much better K/BB form than Feldman (17.1 IP, 9 K, 7 BB).
The Yankees are 20-7 in the last 27 meetings and 30-12 in the last 42 meetings in Texas. I expect them to earn a split of this four-game series tonight.
Take the Yankees.
Wild Bill
Florida +190 (5 units)
Padres-Mets Over 7 1/2 (5 units)
Dodgers +155 (5 units)
Rockies -200 (5 units)
Reds +140 (5 units)
Arizona -160 (5 units)
Jays -120 (5 units)
Yankees -155 (5 units)
Yankees-Rangers Under 12 (5 units)
Detroit +125 (5 units)
Mariners-Rays Under 8 (5 units)
Patriots -5 (5 units)
Chiefs +3 (5 units)
Arizona -2 (5 units)
Arizona-Saints Under 36 1/2 (5 units)
Pittsburgh -3 (5 units)
Eagles-Pittsburgh Under 33 1/2 (5 units)
Seattle +2 1/2 (5 units)
St L-Tenn Under 33 (5 units)
Dallas +3 (5 units)
Bengals +3 1/2 (5 units)
SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL Preseason
N.Y. Giants at Detroit
The Super Bowl champion Giants start warming up for their title defense when they travel to Ford Field to open the preseason against the Lions.
After going 7-1 SU and ATS in the 2005 and 2006 preseasons, New York slipped to 1-3 SU and ATS last August, all as an underdog. Meanwhile, Detroit was 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in the preseason last year, and it has cashed in just four of 16 preseason games dating to 2004 (6-10 SU). The home field hasn’t helped the Lions in that span, as they’ve gone 2-6 ATS (4-4 SU) at Ford Field.
Giants quarterback Eli Manning will get the start, but he’s only expected to play the first two series at the most, and all the starters should be gone by the second quarter. Journeymen Anthony Wright and David Carr will follow Manning, and rookie Andre Woodson could also see some time.
New York’s receiving corps will be thin, with Plaxico Burress, Steve Smith, David Tyree and Mario Manningham all sitting with minor injuries.
Jon Kitna is back as the Lions’ starting quarterback, but he and the rest of the first-string offense and defense will be on the field for only about 10 snaps, coach Rod Marinelli said. No. 2 QB Dan Orlovsky will follow Kitna and play about 1½ quarters, with former second-round pick Drew Stanton finishing up.
The under is 8-4 in New York’s last three preseason campaigns, including 7-1 on the road, and the under is 4-2 in Detroit’s last six preseason home contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE:UNDER
N.Y. Jets at Cleveland
On the day they reportedly agreed to a trade for Brett Favre, the Jets head to Cleveland for an exhibition game against the Browns, who will attempt to continue their recent preseason hot streak.
New York, entering coach Eric Mangini’s third season, went 3-1 SU and ATS last year in preseason play, and the Jets are 11-5 SU over the past four exhibition campaigns (9-7 ATS), including 5-2 SU and ATS in their last seven preseason road contests.
Mangini has kept his quarterback situation under wraps throughout camp, and with the apparent acquisition of Favre, it looks as though Chad Pennington and Kellen Clemens are now battling for the backup job. Both are expected to play tonight, with rookie Erik Ainge and Brett Ratliff getting time in the second half.
Cleveland also went 3-1 SU and ATS in the 2007 preseason and is 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS dating to 2004, one year before the arrival of coach Romeo Crennel. The Browns are also 6-2 ATS in Cleveland over the past four preseasons.
Browns quarterback Derek Anderson will play the first quarter, with Brady Quinn expected to step in for the second and third quarters, followed by Ken Dorsey.
The under has been the preseason play the past three years for Cleveland, going 8-4 overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE:CLEVELAND
Baltimore at New England
The AFC champion Patriots, who fell one game short of a historic perfect season last year, get back at it when they open the preseason against the Ravens at Gillette Stadium.
New England, entering its ninth season under coach Bill Belichick, has been an average preseason squad the past three years, going 6-6 SU (2-2 all three years) and 6-5-1 ATS. In the past two summers, though, the Pats are 3-1 SU and ATS as a favorite, all of more than three points.
Baltimore, now under rookie head coach John Harbaugh after Brian Billick was fired following the 2007 season, went 1-2 SU and ATS last year in the preseason and is 8-7 SU and ATS over the past four exhibition seasons. On the road in that span, the Ravens went 3-4 SU and ATS.
Quarterback Tom Brady is nursing a calf injury and will be a game-time decision for the Patriots. If Brady plays, it likely won’t be for more than two series, and he’ll be followed by Matt Cassel, Matt Gutierrez and rookie Kevin O’Connell, all of whom are battling it out to be Brady’s backup.
QB Kyle Boller will start for the Ravens and is expected to play most, if not all, of the first half, followed by Troy Smith in the third quarter and rookie Joe Flacco in the fourth quarter. Baltimore will be without RB Willis McGahee and tight end Todd Heap, both down with injuries.
The over is 3-1 in New England’s last four home preseason games, with both contests in Foxboro last year topping the total. On the flip side, the under is on an 8-3 run over the past three exhibition campaigns for Baltimore.
ATS ADVANTAGE:NEW ENGLAND
Kansas City at Chicago
The Bears, who reached the Super Bowl in the 2006 season but missed the playoffs last year, open 2008 against the Chiefs at Soldier Field.
Chicago went 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS in the 2007 preseason and is 10-7 SU (8-8-1 ATS) in exhibition games since coach Lovie Smith took over in 2004. The Bears have gone 1-1 SU each of the last five preseasons and are just 3-7 ATS at Soldier Field during that stretch.
Kansas City, in a precursor to its 4-12 regular season, went 0-4 SU and ATS last August and is just 2-10 SU and ATS in its last 12 exhibition contests. Since 2004, the Chiefs are 0-8 SU and ATS in preseason road games.
QB Kyle Orton gets the starting nod for the Bears tonight and will play the first quarter, followed in the second quarter by Rex Grossman, with both quarterbacks playing behind the first team. Caleb Hanie is expected to play in the second half.
Herm Edwards, entering his third season as Chiefs coach, said Brody Croyle’s starting job is safe. Croyle is expected to start tonight and could play into the second quarter, though Edwards wouldn’t specify the exact game plan. He did say Tyler Thigpen will replace Croyle and get most of the remaining snaps before handing off to veteran Damon Huard.
The over went 3-1 in the preseason for Chicago last year, but the under is 6-2 in Kansas City’s last two exhibition campaigns.
ATS ADVANTAGE:CHICAGO
New Orleans at Arizona
The Saints, who slid to 7-9 last year after nearly making the Super Bowl in 2006, travel to University of Phoenix Stadium to take on the Cardinals.
New Orleans, entering its third year under coach Sean Payton, went 3-2 SU and ATS in the 2007 preseason, including 2-0 SU and ATS in true road games and 3-1 ATS as an underdog. Over the past five preseasons, the Saints are just 8-13 SU and ATS in August, but they are 6-4 SU and ATS on the highway.
Arizona went 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in coach Ken Whisenhunt’s first preseason last year. The Cards have been a middling team at home the past four Augusts, going 2-6 SU and 4-4 ATS. They’re also 2-4 ATS as a favorite the last four summers.
QB Drew Brees will start for the Saints and is expected to play the whole first quarter, with Mark Brunell coming on and playing into the third quarter, followed by Tyler Palko. New Orleans will be shorthanded on offense, though, with RB Deuce McAllister, TE Jeremy Shockey and WR Devery Henderson all sitting out, and WR Marques Colston questionable.
QB Matt Leinart will have a limited start for the Cardinals, playing one to two series, and Kurt Warner will follow for one to two series as both passers battle for the No. 1 job. Brian St. Pierre and rookie Anthony Morelli are slated to take the snaps the rest of the way, though all four QBs are likely to be without injured wideouts Anquan Boldin and Early Doucet.
The under has cashed in five of New Orleans’ last seven preseason contests, but the over has been the play in five of Arizona’s last six exhibition games and is 4-2 at home for the Cardinals in the past three summers.
ATS ADVANTAGE:NEW ORLEANS and OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (62-52) at Texas (60-55)
The Yankees send Mike Mussina (14-7, 3.44 ERA) to the mound looking to even their four-game road series against the Rangers, who are set to go with young right-hander Scott Feldman (4-4, 4.97).
After losing the first two games of this series, New York held on for a 5-3 victory Wednesday, moving to just 4-7 in its last 11 overall and 4-7 in its last 11 on the road. Still, the Yankees are on positive streaks of 14-5 against winning teams and 17-7 versus the A.L. West.
Despite Wednesday’s setback, Texas has still won four of its last six and is on further runs of 6-2 against the A.L. East and 14-7 against right-handed starters.
The Rangers still lead the season series 4-2 against the Yankees, but going back a few years, New York is 20-7 in the last 27 meetings overall and 14-3 in the last 17 in Arlington.
The Yankees have won three of Mussina’s last four starts, including an 8-2 home shelling of the Angels on Saturday, in which the veteran right-hander allowed two runs (one earned) on two hits in seven innings. Mussina has surrendered just 12 earned runs in 44 innings (2.45 ERA) over his last seven starts.
The Rangers have lost three of Feldman’s last four outings, including the last two in a row. On Saturday against Toronto, the 25-year-old yielded four runs (three earned) on five hits in 5 1/3 innings of a 6-4 home setback. In his last four starts, Feldman has given up 17 earned runs in 21 innings (7.29 ERA).
Mussina is 5-1 with a 3.43 ERA in seven road starts this year, and he’s 17-13 with a 3.74 ERA in 36 career starts against Texas. Feldman, meanwhile, has a rash of no-decisions at home this season, going 1-1 with a 4.80 ERA in 11 appearances (nine starts). He’s also 1-0 with a 6.00 ERA in two career appearances (one start) against New York.
The over is on a 10-2 spree for New York and an 11-3-1 run for Texas, but the under is 6-2 in Mussina’s last eight starts and 8-2 in Feldman’s last 10. The under is also 4-1 in Mussina’s last five efforts against the Rangers.
ATS ADVANTAGE:N.Y. YANKEES
Big Al Mcmordie
Game: Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
At 8:10pm our member selection is on the Detroit Tigers over the Chicago White Sox. Back in the first month of the season, 26-year-old Tiger righthander Zach Miner would have been one of the unlikeliest pitchers in the American League to wind up in a team's rotation. After all, by the middle of April, Miner's ERA had ballooned to over fifteen runs after his first six relief appearances. By the end of June, Miner had worked his way to a .500 record (3-3) and had gottenhis ERA down to a reasonable 4.43 -- still not exactly the stuff of a Major League starter on a contending team. But a season-ending injury to Jeremy Bonderman and the recent demotion of Dontrelle Willis have opened the door for Miner, and so far the converted reliever has made the most of his opportunity. Miner has gone 2-1 as a starter and has now lowered his ERA to 3.77. This is a great opportunity to improve on this record as he faces division rival Chicago and veteran Javier Vazquez, who has really struggled lately. Vazquez finally got his first win since June 17, but it came against the lowly Kansas City Royals. Vazquez's last start before that was against this Tiger squad, and it was one of his worst outings of the season, as he gave up 11 hits and six earned runs in seven innings in Detroit's ballpark, which is known to be pretty friendly to opposing pitchers. Vazquez has gone from looking like an early-season favorite for the Cy Young award to trying to work out the kinks so he can get his team to the postseason. Vazquez is 1-2 with a 4.95 ERA vs. Detroit so far in 2008, and we'll take the underdog here tonite. Take the Tigers.
Great Lakes Sports
New York Jets at Cleveland
Play on: Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns are 8-4ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1993, and 16-7ATS at home since 1993. The Cleveland Browns is also 27-20ATS overall since 1993, and 3-0ATS vs conference opponents the last three years. We look for the Cleveland Browns to beat the New York Jets for the straight up, and ATS home win tonight.
Will Cover
NEW ENGLAND minus vs the Ravens.
You might think a team that has been as successful as the Pats would take it easy in the pre-season by resting their starters for the regular season grind. Not so with Bill Belichick at the helm as he has gone a fine 32-21 SU and 31-18-3 ATS as the head coach of the Pats in the pre-season. He wants to win anytime NE steps on the field and the Patriots will do just that this evening at home against the Ravens. Lay it with NEW ENGLAND!
Dave Cokin
Ravens +3' @ Patriots
Play: Ravens
Strong information coming out of Ravens camp, as new coach Harbaugh has taken a far more focused early tact than Billick ever did. Kyle Boller should go most of the first half, followed by improving Troy Smith, who's been impressive in camp. The Patriots are thin on the offensive line because of injury, especially at tackle. QB Brady and the first-stringers won't have pads on for long, if at all. The number on this game has dropped and with good reason, as Baltimore has an excellent chance to win. I'm on the Ravens.
Steve Janus
TAMPA BAY
The Rays are hot again. They've won 7 of their last 8 and are playing a Seattle team that is just 3-9 in their last 12 home games as a favorite. Tampa is 14-5 in 19 starts for their pitcher, Andy Sonnastine. Felix Hernandez gets the start for the Mariners, and while he is a very good pitcher, his team has not backed him in situations when he is favored to start the game. In his last 10 starts as a favorite, the Mariners are just 3-7.
Bobby Maxwell
The Rays couldn't have had a better way to take off on their season-high, 10-game road trip. They rallied for six ninth-inning runs and got a walk-off three-run homer for a 10-7 win over Cleveland in Tampa on Wednesday. That made the flight to Seattle for this one very entertaining and enjoyable and makes a guy want to get back on the field to experience the winning feeling again.
Tampa will come out still a little fired up and have a good game tonight. The Rays have won four of their last six on the road and send Andy Sonnanstine (11-6, 4.58 ERA) to the mound in this one. On Saturday he gave up just two runs in six innings of a 9-3 win over the Tigers and faced these Mariners back on April 9, allowing four runs in six innings.
Seattle has Felix Hernandez (7-7, 3.04 ERA) on the hill and he never seems to get any run support. He gave up two runs in five innings of a 3-1 loss to Baltimore on Saturday and he's 1-1 in four career starts against the Rays. He's got just one win since June 17 and he isn't getting one tonight.
Momentum plays a big part in this one as we look for the Rays to keep rolling. Play Tampa tonight.
2♦ TAMPA BAY
Matt Rivers
Thursday take the price back with the Marlins.
This is not worth a premium play but to get the number here with the fish is too good to pass up entirely. Cole Hamels is a total stud but he did just get smacked around in that last start and has not been showing his Cy Young potential. When the lefty has looked good his team has not supported him and therefore Hamels has something like three wins over the past two months.
Chris Volstad is no Hamels by any means but the young righty has potential and a decent upside and should be able to at least hold his own here.
Florida has been overachieving all season long and now with Josh Johnson and Annabel Sanchez back in the mix all of a sudden Freddy Gonzalez' team has become very very legit and more than likely will stay in the race for the long haul. Hanley Ramirez is a superstar leading an offense that is no joke. Throw in Jacobs, Willingham, Hermida, Ross, Cantu and others and the Marlins can bash the ball and especially in a hitters' park like Citizens Bank.
One of these days we are going to see Hamels return to that unreal form but until that happens I'll take a very capable dog like this at this price for sure!