Ben Burns
4* Philadelphia Phillies
Tom Freese
New York at Texas
New York is 15-5 their last 20 games vs. winning teams and they are 37-16 their last 53 games when the Total is 11.0 or higher. The Yankees are 13-6 in the last 19 starts made by Mike Mussina and they are 8-3 their last 11 road games vs. righty starters. Texas is 12-30 their last 42 home games vs. the Yankees and they are 2-5 at home vs. Mike Mussina. The Rangers are 1-6 the last 7 home starts made by Scott Feldman and they are 1-4 their last 5 Thursday games. PLAY ON NEW YORK
Wunderdog
Los Angeles Dodgers at St Louis
Pick: St Louis -129
The Dodgers are just 3-6 in Clayton Kershaw's last nine starts, in spite of the fact he gave up no earned runs in three of them. Two still resulted in losses. That is because the underbelly of the Dodgers' pen is just not good and Kershaw has yet to make it into the 7th inning in any start, failing to get past five innings in more than half of his 11 starts. Even when he pitches well the Dodgers have a tough time winning. Kyle Lohse has been brilliant for the Cards where he is 13-3 with a 3.73 ERA, and the Cards have now won 12 of his last 15 starts and seven of his last eight at home. This matchup is much more favorable for the Cards than the odds are allowing for, so we will take the value and grab the Cards as a home favorite of much less than what they should be.
HURRICANE BILL'S TROPICAL STORM PLAY
NEW YORK JETS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS
TROPICAL STORM: CLEVELAND BROWNS
No surprise that this one has jumped up to 3 1/2 after the Favre announcement and the pending release of starting QB Chad Pennington. With the Jets' now inexperienced QB group consisting of Clemens, Ratliff and Ainge, and the Browns' 3-man rotation of Anderson, Quinn and veteran Ken Dorsey as solid as they come, lay the 3 1/2 as they hosts have the "Pound" howling in tonight's opener.
Charlies Sports
Jets @ Browns Under 35 (500*)
Lions-3 (30*)
Arizona-2½ (20*)
Jets-3 (20*)
Chiefs+3 (10*)
Ravens+3½ (10*) free play
Oscarxena Sports
Los Angeles +1.22 (3 Unit Play)
The Dodgers have dropped the first two games of this series and after this game they travel back out west to take on the Giants. The Dodgers will hand the ball to rookie Clayton Kershaw who has certainly had his growing pains for the Dodgers this year but he is making his 12th start of the year today and appears to be a solid addition to the Dodgers rotation as they make their push towards the playoffs. Kershaw has pitched 12 scoreless innings in his last two starts and he does have a start under his belt against the Cardinals as he did not receive a decision but pitched well allowing only two runs and striking out seven batters in six innings which was in fact his major league debut. The Cardinals will hand the ball to surprising Kyle Lohse who has been a major find for them this year as he is 13-3 with a 3.73 ERA on the year. Lohse has been showing some signs of slowing down a bit lately though and in his career against Los Angeles he is 1-1 but has a 5.40 ERA in two career starts. Today's HP umpire is Tim Welke who has seen the road teams win 12 out of 23 games this year and Lohse has not pitched well with him behind home plate going 1-3. I like the Dodgers to salvage the finale of this three game series.
ATS Consultants
Detroit over Chicago White Sox - Preferred Play
Under in the Atlanta/Arizona game - Preferred Play
ROBERT FERRINGO
1.5-Unit Play. Take #912 Arizona (-150) over Atlanta
1-Unit Play. Take #918 Chicago White Sox (-135) over Detroit
1-Unit Play. Take #902 New York Mets (-1.5, -120) over San Diego
2.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 Washington at Colorado
NOTE: THIS IS GAME 1 OF THE DOUBLEHEADER TODAY. SHOULD BE PEREZ VS. FRANCIS.
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 7.5 San Diego at New York Mets
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 10.0 Atlanta at Arizona
Pointwise NFLX Phones
3* New England
2* Detroit
2* Arizona
Friday
2* Philadelphia
Saturday
3* Washington
2* Dallas
SAPKOWSKI
Premium
Colorado (Jimenez)
Best Bet
Okland vs. Toronto over 3 in 1st 5IN
Dave Malinsky
New York Giants @ Detroit Lions
PICK: 4* Over
No, off of a Super Bowl win the Giants do not have much anything to prove at all in a pre-season opener. Yes, much is being made about the shift in the focus of the Detroit offense, with more emphasis on running the ball as Jim Colletto takes over as coordinator from Mike Martz. But when the betting markets try to take those puzzle pieces and turn this Total into a 31, it is “go time” for us.
The Giant starters may not try very hard. But the key to them in pre-season from a Totals standpoint is outstanding depth and experience in the skill positions. There is a most healthy competition going on at the reserve QB spots, which means that David Carr and his 79 NFL starts, and Anthony Wright and his 19, get a chance to show their experience against the Detroit defensive reserves. And they will have some solid pieces to work with - there are not many depth charts anywhere in the league that have more RB’s with starting experience. There is a real potential to be making things happen long after Eli Manning has taken his helmet off.
As for the changing flow of the Detroit offense, understand that for what it is. The Lions will not suddenly become a land-locked team; their offensive strength is a WR corps that rivals any in the NFL. Instead they want to become more balanced, with the Martz offensive scheme often giving up on the run completely LY. Remember that while running more can slow the tempo a bit, it can also make an offense much more efficient, particularly in the red zone. And if they can establish play action as a genuine concern for defensive units it will mean single coverage for either Roy Williams or Calvin Johnson, and often for both, as they work their way deep. In Tatum Bell and Kevin Smith there are a couple of capable RB’s that will be competing for the #1 spot before the regular season begins. As for the QB rotation there will be no wasted snaps in the pre-season, with Dan Orlovsky and Drew Stanton battling for the #2 spot, and no one else on the roster.
This is being priced as the lowest Total on this week’s entire card, and that is wrong for what these teams are bringing to the table.
Jeff Scott Sports
2 UNIT PLAY
Washington/ Colorado Over 9.5 (GAME 1)
The Over is 8-1-1 in Nationals last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter and 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings in Colorado, while the Over is 6-0-2 in Rockies last 8 games as a favorite and 11-1 in Francis' last 12 starts vs. National League East. The Last 9 meetings in Colorado have averaged 13.9 rpg, including 11.5 rpg in the 2 games played there this year. Odalis Perez has struggled on the year with a 4.16 ERA overall, including a 5.96 ERA on the road and a 6.63 ERA in his last 3 starts. Jason Bergaman has faced the Rockies only once and he allowed 5 ER in just 3.2 innings of work vs them. Jason has struggled for much of the year WITH A 4.33 ERA overall, including a 5.83 ERA in his last 3 starts. Jeff Francis has also struggled on the year, posting a 5.67 ERA overall and a 5.25 ERA at home, plus he owns a 6.49 ERA in his last 4 starts. Jeff home starts have averaged 9.6 rpg, while his last 4 starts have averaged 10 rpg. Jeff has a 6.97 ERA in 2 home starts vs the Nats, with those games averaging 16.5 rpg. The Nats offense has waken up big time as they are averaging 5.6 rpg in their last 7, while the Rockies offense is averageing 5.7 rpg at home and they have averaged 8.4 rpg in their last 9 home games vs the Nats. Two nights ago a bunch of late runs gave these teams a push on the total of 10, but today I feel that 10+ run will come much easier.
3Daily Winners
Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Arizona D-Backs
Arizona ran into buzzsaw with Bucs Jeff Karstens yesterday and will rebound tonight in the desert. With Atlanta only 19-37 on the road, follow this system to victory. PLAY ON all favorites like Arizona with a money line of -150 or more, having won two of their last three contests, a marginal winning team (51 to 54 percent) playing a club like the Braves with a 38 to 46 win percentage. This sweet system is 112-29, 79.4 percent since 2004.
Indiancowboy Comp
Cleveland Browns -2.5
leveland is more than a 2/3rds favorite coming into this game, but keep in mind this was a 10 win team last year that did not make it to the playoffs, in fact, it is one of the few times that that has happened. The Jets still have some gaping holes of experience to fill, and the Browns were a playoff caliber team last year that has been chomping at the bit to play again and it would not surprise me if they went on to win this game big. Remember, Holcomb always has to feel like Quinn is over his shoulders so I expect him to be sharp and then I expect his backup to be sharp as well. I just hate to see 66% of the public on the Browns here, but I don't think in preseason that truly makes a dent with the books, similar to wnba betting when it comes to public percentages.
write-up: This is a bit of a risky play considering the public is on Cleveland, but I will take my chances with Anderson and Quinn both doing well as this scoring is likely not to stop and of course, this is still the pound a tough place for the young Jets team to play.
Mr A
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
The White Sox have been a disaster on the road, but have played well at U.S. Cellular Field. Chicago has won 15 of their last 20 home games, 36-16 this season. They have beaten the Tigers in six of their last 8 games in the Windy City.
Detroit's Justin Verlander (8-11, 4.49), has lost his last two starts. The right-hander is 1-2 with a 6.87 ERA in his last three starts and is 2-7 in his career against the White Sox, 1-3 with a 6.15 ERA in four starts against them this season.
Chicago's John Danks (8-4, 3.31 ERA), has won his last five decisions. The left-hander is 1-0 with a 7.88 ERA in his last three starts and 1-1 with a 5.79 ERA in four career starts versus the Tigers.
Take the White Sox at home. The Tigers have lost their last five road games and nine of Verlander's last 12 starts on the road, 0-6 in the right-hander's last 6 versus the White Sox in Chicago.
Chicago White Sox -110