Gator Report
MLB 70% Super Situations:
MLB Thursday: Play Against MLB (AL) underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.500 to 1.600 on the season, in August games. 40-7 SU last five seasons (85.1%)
PLAY: Tampa Bay Rays -135
MLB Top Angles:
MLB Thursday: Moehler (Houston) 14-2 Under this season.
MLB Thursday: Pittsburgh is 7-0 SU against the money line in home games versus a starting pitcher who gives up 1 or more HR's per start this season.
MLB Thursday: Snell (Pitt) is 14-3 SU against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons (Team's Record)
MLB Thursday: Atlanta is 3-11 SU against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a win percentage of 54% to 62% in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MLB Thursday: Olsen (Fla) is 1-11 SU against the money line versus teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons (Team's Record)
Doc's Sports
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
The finale of this critical series takes place on Thursday @ Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA. We like the Dodgers in this match-up since they will be up against Brett Myers, a player that has been a starter and reliever and a minor leaguer this season. He has terrible numbers going 5-9 with a 5.09 E.R.A. His WHIP is 1.43 and this newly created Dodgers line-up should be running the bases all night long. His opponent will be Hiroki Kuroda and he is coming off back-2-back outstanding starts in which he went over 15 innings and allowed just two runs. After tonight’s performance we will lower his E.R.A. under four runs per game and the Dodgers will inch closer to the Diamondbacks in the standings.
Nelly
Milwaukee – over San Diego
Although Jake Peavy remains one of the top pitchers in the National League, being stuck on the struggling Padres makes him a go-against pitcher. San Diego is 8-12 when Peavy starts and actually just 5-12 in his last 17 starts despite being favored in 15 of those games. Peavy still has good numbers but he has been inconsistent with his control at times. He has allowed three or more walks in the three of his last four starts and the Padres are just 4-17 in the last 21 home games. The Brewers are a hot team right now with wins in seven straight games heading into Wednesday and Milwaukee is one of the few teams in baseball with a winning road record. The Brewers do not hit for a high average but Milwaukee is scoring runs, with five or more runs scored in each of the past seven games. Ben Sheets enters this game off a brilliant outing last week and the Brewers are 10-4 behind him in his road starts. Look for Milwaukee to solve Peavy and send the Padres to another loss.
Jimmy The Moose
Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
Two solid pitchers meet up in this one with Sheets facing off vs. Peavy. Prior to last night's game the Brewers had won 7 straight. Milwaukee is 19-7 in their last 26 road games. In their last 12 road games vs. a right-handed starter the Brewers are 10-2. Milwaukee is 13-4 in Sheets last 17 road starts. In his last 14 starts vs. a team with a losing record the Brewers are 10-4. SD is 16-35 in their last 51 games overall. In their last 55 games as a dog they are 18-37. San Diego has lost 4 of Peavy's last 5 starts overall and 6 of his last 8 home starts. Brewers are just that much better than the Padres and will take this one. Play on the Miwaulee Brewers -.
Big Al McMordie
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers
Play:Toronto Blue Jays
At 1:05pm our complimentary selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Detroit Tigers. The 2008 version of the Toronto Blue Jays could feature one of the weakest hitting lineups of this franchise in recent memory, but should get a boost from the return of outfielder Vernon Wells, who, if he can finally stay healthy may make an impact for this team in the last six weeks of the season. 26-year-old Tigers rookie Armando Galarraga has been a huge surprise for Detroit, and perhaps its best overall starter in 2008 as he has clearly added his name to the list as a contender for American League Rookie of the Year. Somewhat surprisingly, though, Galarraga has done by far his best work on the road this year, going 7-2 with an incredible ERA of 2.72 when pitching away from Comerica Park. At home, the Rookie is mediocre, with a 4.11 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Right-handed starter Jesse Litsch will take the mound for Toronto this afternoon, and Detroit continues to under-perform vs. righties this season, going 35-50, and down almost 24 net games on the money line. Take the Jays.
Scott Ferrall
BASEBALL LOCKS FOR THURSDAY
Colorado +130 with Rusch upsetting Haren at Coors--The Rockies have been sucking lately and need a win at home
Sheets and Milwaukee (even odds) at San Diego over Jake Peavy--The Brewers have been hotter than a pancake on a skillet
Cincy and Cueto +105 at PNC over Ian Snell and the Bucs--The Pirates are melting
Glavine +115 at Turner over the Cubs and Ted Lilly--Tommy gets the Braves a much needed win
Dice K -280 at Fenway over the Rangers and Hunter--The Sox are simply dominant in Boston these days
Baltimore -120 at Cleveland--Cabrera wins this one over Zach Johnson--hey, isn't that the guy that won the Master's a couple of years ago ? Either way--I don't like his chances--even at the Jake
TB -145 at Oakland--Shields over Gallagher in the East Bay--the Rays have some problems with injuries and can't start slipping now !
BASEBALL OVER-UNDERS FOR THURSDAY
BOST-TEXAS UNDER 10.5 RUNS
BALT-CLEVE OVER 10 RUNS
TB-OAK OVER 7.5 RUNS
CHISOX-KC OVER 10 RUNS
TOR-DET UNDER 9.5 RUNS
PHIL-LA OVER 8 RUNS
NY-WASH OVER 8.5 RUNS
CARDS-MARLINS UNDER 8.5 RUNS
CUBS-BRAVOS UNDER 9.5 RUNS
CINCY-PITT OVER 9.5 RUNS
MILW-SD OVER 6.5 RUNS
ARIZ-COLO UNDER 9.5 RUNS
SF-HOUS OVER 9.5 RUNS
BASEBALL FREE B's FOR THURSDAY
Kansas City and Davies at +145 over Corrasco and the ChiSox in the Windy City--love the price
Detroit and Galarraga -165 over the Jays in Motown--The Tigers starter has been their best pitcher this year and is looking for his 11th win
Myers and the Phillies at +115 in LA against the Dodgers and Kuroda--The Phils win this one with their sticks
OLY PEREZ -155 in DC vs the NATS and Balester, who's miserable. The Nats are 11 games under .500 in their new home in the nations capital
Wellemeyer and the Cards do it to the Marlins in S. Fla again (even odds)--he'll knock off Scott Olsen, who's been struggling
Houston and Moehler -155 over the Giants at Minute Maid--The Astros are smokin right now and SF is falling to pieces
THURSDAY'S NFL PRE-SEASON GAMES
PITTSBURGH +2 at Buffalo--I just think the STeelers are flat out better than the Bills-even with a bunch of reserves playing. Take the OVER 33
Philly -3 to Carolina--I'm on the Eagles at home over the Panthers--Take the UNDER 36
Robert Ferringo
Take Philadelphia -3 over Carolina
Philadelphia is 9-0 in its last nine preseason games in Week 2, including 5-0 when they play at home. Andy Reid generally doesn¹t take the preseason seriously, but I think the Eagles will be focused after they were pushed around by in-state rival Pittsburgh last week and with people questioning whether or not the team should be heading in a different direction. I think the Eagles and Reid answer the bell with a win in front of the home faithful.
TONY STEVENS
TAMPA BAY RAYS -125
CHICAGO CUBS -1.5 +130
NEW YORK METS -1.5 +105
Moneyonus
Red Sox/Rangers Over 10.5
Giants/Astros Under 9.5
Karl Garrett
Milwaukee +105 at SAN DIEGO
G-Man takes the Brewers once again today, as Ben Sheets and Jake Peavy go at it.
No doubt Peavy has been stingy, as his home ERA this year stands at 1.43 this season, but Ben Sheets is no slouch either, and is coming off a complete game shutout of the Nats.
Sheets is 6-2 on the road this season with a 2.83 ERA, and against this anemic San Diego offense, Sheets figures to be right there matching pitches with Peavy.
With the loss last night, San Diego is now a major league-worst 4-18 their last 22 games at home!
Milwaukee will find a way to win this game, and run their wining streak to 9 straight.
3♦ MILWAUKEE
Sports Gambling Hotline
Pittsburgh +2½ vs. BUFFALO - at Toronto
We will grab the points with the Steelers tonight, as Pittsburgh does have an extra days rest under their belts, and are coming into this one off a nice 16-10 come-from-behind win over Philadelphia last Friday.
Buffalo was on field, and on the road no less last Saturday in a road loss at Washington. The Bills did cover as the underdog, but tonight they are not getting enough in our estimation in this neutral site game for these teams.
The Steelers have gone 5-1 straight up in the preseason under Mike Tomlin, and they have covered in 4 of those 6.
Byron Leftwich was just picked up by Pittsburgh after Charlie Batch went down with an injury last week. By all accounts, Leftwich has looked sharp, and we expect the Steelers to put some points up on the board when he is on the field relieving Ben Roethlisberger.
Trent Edwards starts again for the Bills, and he was just 1-for-5 in his pass attempts. The Bills have plenty of injuries on their offense, so don't expect too much from the starters in this one tonight.
Small chalk to lay in this spot, and we say "lay it"!
Play on the Steelers.
3♦ PITTSBURGH
Bobby Maxwell
Carolina at PHILADELPHIA -3½
No-brainer when it comes to this one, Carolina is not a very good football team and the Eagles are coming out with a big dose of the starters tonight. Play Philadelphia in a big way in this one.
The Panthers needed OT to beat the Colts 23-20 last week but failed to cash as a four-point home chalk. Carolina is now just 1-4 ATS in the preseason dating back to last season and coach John Fox has said he will not play the starters much tonight. QB Jake Delhomme and the rest of the first unit will not get more than two series tonight and WRs Steve Smith and Dwayne Jarrett won't even take the field in this one.
Fox is waiting until Week 3 of the preseason to let his starters stretch their legs a bit.
Meanwhile on the other side, Philadelphia is playing QB Donovan McNabb and the starters the entire first half. McNabb went 10-of-13 for 97 yards and a TD last week against the Steelers and looked pretty good against a good defense. Veteran backup QB A.J. Feeley will play most of the second half as coach Andy Reid plans to get his QBs ready for the season.
Last year in Week 2 of the exhibition campaign, Philadelphia beat the crap out of the Panthers 27-10 as a three-point home chalk. No reason to think tonight will be any different. Play the Eagles in this one.
4♦ PHILADELPHIA
LAS VEGAS SPORTS ADVISORS
Milwaukee/Ben Sheets +106
Play of the Day
Arizona/Dan Haren -135
Tampa Bay/James Shields -125
St. Louis/Todd Wellemeyer +104
Boston/Daisuke Matsuzaka -1.5 -126
FREE PICK
Dave Cokin
PHI Phillies and LA Dodgers
Take LA Dodgers
The Dodgers are enjoying a huge series against the Phillies, who are really missing the presence of Brad Lidge in the bullpen. Brett Myers has finally gotten it together for the Phils, but so has Hiroki Kuroda, who's seemingly back in decent form for LA. I prefer the hot entry here and that's definitely the Dodgers.
JEFFERSONSPORTS
NFL EARLY RELEASE
EAGLES-2.5 1st half
MLB EARLY RELEASE
Detroit-165
Tampa Bay-125
Houston-155