Lenny Del Genio
MIL (+105) vs SDP
We know how tough it is to go against the Padres Jake Peavy at home, but with the way Milwaukee has been playing as of late, it's even harder to against them. They jumped all over San Diego last night en route to a 7-1 win behind hired gun CC Sabathia. Now they have original team ace, Ben Sheets, on the hill and he's an underdog! Sheets is 6-2 with a 2.83 ERA away from home this year. Last night's win was the Brew Crew's eighth straight and kept them cemented as the Wild Card leaders in the National League as well as kept them just 3.5 games behind the Cubs in the Central Division. Milwaukee has now won 15 of its last 18 on the road. Meanwhile, can you believe that San Diego is just 14-22 as a home favorite this year? Ouch! Of course, when you're averaging just 3.5 runs per game in your own backyard, that's to be expected. Milwaukee has outscored opponents 49-12 during its eight game win streak and are on pace for the franchise's best finish in 25 years. San Diego, meanwhile, is headed for a 100 loss season. Take Milwaukee.
PIT (-120) vs CIN
We just can't believe how off this line is. The Pirates' Ian Snell owns a 17-5 team start record in the role of favorite over the last two seasons, with most of those starts obviously coming at PNC Park (14-3 TSR as home favorite), so we'll look past the fact that he's been "off" this year and realize that this is his situation to get back on track. As a team, the Bucs are 15-4 in the home favorite role in 2008. They'll be opposed by Johnny Cueto on Thursday and that's good news considering Pittsburgh is now a perfect 8-0 vs. starters who allow an average of more than 1 HR/game this year at home following yesterday's relatively easy 5-2 win that took just 2 hours and 14 minutes to play. The Pirates offense is now getting a much needed boost at 1B Adam LaRouche has been activated. The Reds have just been so bad on the road (22-37) and so bad recently (2-10 in August), plus starter Johnny Cueto has really struggled inside the division this year (2-9 TSR). Take PIttsburgh.
CHC (-125) vs ATL
The Cubs just annihilated the Braves in yesterday's doubleheader, winning the two games by a combined score of 18-2. Thus far, it's been a year to remember for the Cubbies and tonight they aim for their eighth consecutive road win, something the franchise hasn't done in 63 years. Overall, Lou Pinella's team has won 13 of its last 16, but during its road winning streak is where the troops have really done the damage, outscoring the opposition 59-19 in seven games. Atlanta is heading in the totally opposite direction as they've lost 9 of 11 at home and have managed just three runs over their last three games (all losses). An 8-0 loss in yesterday's Game 2 marked the 12th time this team has been shutout this season. The lefty vs. lefty matchup of Lilly vs. Glavine greatly favors the Cubs as they average 6.3 runs/game vs. southpaws with the Braves are just 16-22 vs. southpaws. Lilly has just one loss in his last 12 starts and has been doing his best work on the road as of late, going 3-1 with a 2.53 ERA in his last seven road outings. Take Chicago Cubs.
Marc Lawrence
LOS (-120) vs PHI
The Dodgers and Phillies conclude this 4-game series tonight when Hiroki Kuroda takes on Brett Myers in Los Angeles. The inclusion of Manny Ramirez' bat into the Dodger lineup has proven highly beneficial as they've scored 4 or more runs in ten their last eleven games. On the flip side Myers has been horrible hurling away from home, dropping 12 of his last 15 road starts. In his eight road starts this season he's issued 21 walks to go with 21 strikeouts. His 6.61 road ERA this season is more than three full runs worse than his 3.48 home ERA. Meanwhile, Kuroda's 3.29 home ERA ins nearly a run and half better than his 4.75 road ERA this season. With Kuroda owning a 1/30 strikeout to walk ratio in his last six home starts, look for the Dodgers to grab the win here tonight.
John Ryan
5* Giants/Hou Over
Black Widow Sports
1* on New York Mets -149
This will be a complete mismatch from start to finish, similar to the Mets’ 12-0 victory over the Nationals last night. Oliver Perez is keeping the Mets in this NL East race. He’s 8-7 with a 3.90 ERA this year and 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Mets are 17-5 in their last 22 meetings at Washington. They simply avoid letdowns against the Nationals. Perez is 15-1 (+15.7 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season since 1997. Enough said. Take the Mets on the Money Line.
Info Plays
3* on Philadelphia Phillies +115
The Phillies will not get swept by the Dodgers tonight. Play On - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (PHILADELPHIA) - with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season, after a game where their bullpen blew a save. This is a 124-74 ML System hitting 62.6% (+53.2 Units) since 1997. It took a 2-out double in the bottom of the eighth and a walk off homer in the 9th for the Dodgers to beat Philly last night. Look for the Phillies to come out more hungry tonight and get a big enough lead that can’t possibly be blown again. Bet Philly on the road.
Terron Chapman
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Chicago Cubs
Sometimes you have to be cautious in laying a number like this on the road, even in a favorable situation like tonight. But I just cannot see the Cubbies losing this ballgame. They will be in search of their eighth straight win on the road when they conclude their series with the Braves tonight in Atlanta.
The Cubs took both games of the doubleheader between the two yesterday, outscoring the Braves 20-2 in the process. We can expect the offense to continue this evening with Tom Glavine taking the hill for the Braves. Glavine returns from the DL to make his first start since a June 10th start against Ted Lilly and the Cubs. He gave up four runs, six hits, and four walks in only three innings before leaving with a strained elbow in that contest. Not much has changed for Glavine since that outing. Word is he struggled in his two starts in the minors getting tagged for four runs and seven hits in nine innings. And now he returns to face one of the toughest lineups in the majors and one that has had success against him in the past. He's only 1-3 with a 6.08 ERA in his last five starts against the Cubbies.
Ted Lilly will toe the slab for the Cubs as he looks to continue his recent success on the road. He's 3-1 with a 2.53 ERA in his last seven road starts. The Cubs are 7-2 in Lilly's last nine starts with the chalk. The Braves are just 2-9 in their last 11 home games and they were just 3-9 in Glavine's twelve starts before his trip to the DL.Play on the Chicago Cubs for 1 unit.
Tony Karpinski
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates
The Bucs have been rock solid in the home chalk role this season at 23-7 in their last 30 games in the spot. The Bucs have also found a groove behind Ian Snell. The Reds are just 18-39 in their last 57 games as a road underdog, 5-17 in their last 22 overall, and only 1-7 in their last 8 vs. National League Central. Can you Snell what the Pirates are cooking? Take Pittsburgh at home on Thursday night. Play on the PIRATES
John Ryan
Carolina Panthers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Play: Philadelphia Eagles
Carolina at Philadelphia – 3* graded play on the Eagles Thursday, August 14 The Eagles played reasonably well in their first pre-season game at Pittsburgh. Reports in local papers have clearly underscored the positive tone of this team. McNabb is having one of his best pre-season camps and the team has an attitude that they are NOT done yet – referring to another run at the Super Bowl. RB Westbrook has signed on for 3 year more years at 21 million, but the Eagles need to develop/find more offensive weapons. This will be a game to explore and define who these players will be. The AiS shows a 72% probability that the Eagles will win this game by 3 or more points and grades as a 3* MAJOR. Supporting this play is a strong winning system that has produced a record of 29-9 ATS for 76% since 2002. Play on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in the second week of the preseason. Here is a second winning system that has produced a record of 43-17 ATS for 71% since 2002. Play on any team after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in the second week of the preseason. The Eagles will be even more focused on defense and in particular the defensive line. Jerome McDougal was drafted in the first round out of Miami in 2003, but he has played in just 33 of a possible 18 games to date. He didn't play a single snap last season because of a torn triceps. Two years earlier, he missed the entire season after being shot in a robbery attempt on the eve of training camp. He did play 3 quarters in the first game at Pittsburgh and he will get another long look Thursday night. He did get consistent pressure on the QB throughout those three quarters and is now considered to have the potential to make the team. If another defensive end, Victor Abiamiri, who has a broken wrist, goes on injured reserve, then McDougal’s chances of making the team go up significantly. At the same time, Darren Howard can play both tackle and end, which seemingly gives him an edge. It will be all decided on the field in the next several weeks so look for spirited and intense play from the Eagles defense that will dominate Carolina’s 2nd and 3rd string offense. Take Philadelphia.
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Texas Rangers
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Texas – I just absolutely love these types of plays when identified by the AiS. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 44-30 making 31.6 units since 1997. Play on road dogs with a money line of +100 or higher and is a hot hitting team batting .333 or better over their last 3 games and starting a pitcher who was hit for 5+ runs in his last 2 outings. Matsuzaka has impressive season stats, but he has struggled against Texas. He is 2-0 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 6.97 and a WHIP of 1.646. Texas is also 13-5 (+11.2 Units) against the money line versus an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 this season; 31-11 (+24.9 Units) against the money line after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season.
Chris James Sports
Pittsburgh Pirates
I am going to ride this horse again today! The Pirates square off against the Reds once again Thursday night and I am expecting the same result as last night! The Reds are sending Johnny Cueto to the mound who is 7-11 with a 5.01 ERA. He is 0-2 in his last 3 starts with a 5.82 ERA. The Reds are 2-9 in Cueto's last 11 road starts and 1-6 in his last 7 starts as a road underdog. Cueto has really struggled overall lately going 1-5 in his last 6 starts overall. But that is partly because the Reds have struggled overall as a team going 7-19 in their last 26 overall. They are 18-39 in their last 57 as a road underdog and 1-10 in their last 11 vs. a right handed starter. The Pirates on the other hand are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a favorite and 16-5 in their last 21 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. They are 14-2 in Snell's last 16 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. I am riding the Pirates to continue to play well at home! Play Pittsburgh
SEABASS
20* TB
10* Tex
10* Buff
10* Eagles
Comp-Baltimore/Cleveland Under
100* Vegas Steam Play-CUBS
WUNDERDOG
MLB
Milwaukee at San Diego
Pick: Milwaukee -108
We love the value on this moneyline as the oddsmakers have put way too much emphasis on Jake Peavy here. The fact is that the Padres are a team winning at a rate of just 38.3% of their games. How much does Peavy add to the overall performance of his team? There is simply no value. The Padres are 8-12 in Peavy's 20 starts on the season, or a 40% win rate against 38.3% overall. Milwaukee is one of the hottest teams in baseball, winners of eight straight games, scoring seven runs a game, with not a single game under five runs during the winning streak. Ben Sheets negates anything that Peavy provides the Padres. He has allowed two runs over his last 15 innings of work, and on the season the Brewers are winning better than two of every three games he starts. The Brewers get the call here.
NFL
Oakland at Tennessee
Pick: Oakland +5
The NFL is often about what happened last week, even in the preseason. Sometimes all it takes for the general public to jump on a team is to watch a team the week before, or read about how great they were. They then line up to jump on that team's bandwagon the following week. So after Tennessee posts a whopping 34-13 victory in week one, immediately the oddsmakers react with anticipation and post the Titans as the biggest chalk of week two. ESPN has been showing highlights of running backs Quinton Ganther and Chris Johnson tearing things up all week. The nice thing for us is that the public immediately latched on and pushed the line up even higher than where it opened. Why not jump on Tennessee here? They carved up St. Louis for 340 yards on the ground and treated the scoreboard like a preseason pinball machine. Here is why this line has value - on Oakland. Tennessee proved in a convincing fashion that they can move the ball on the ground. So how are they entering week two? Are they saying to themselves that since they can run the ball 40 times and win, that they should stick with that forumla? No! This is preseason and that's why it is, in fact, the exact opposite. We believe they are instead going to work on the passing game this week. So what happened last week will not be a factor here in the game, but it is in the line. The fact is Vince Young was 3 for 6 for 17 yards, and overall the Titans QB trio hit just 50% for a paltry six yards per attempt. Jeff Fisher is no fool and he realizes they have to find a passing game or teams will line up eight in the box when the season starts, and the offense will be turning the ball over to the punting game. So we expect Fisher to shift gears here and work on his passing game more. Oakland kept San Francisco out of the end-zone last week, so the points won't be lighting up this week for Tennessee as they did last week. This line shows tremendous value, as the false expectations of game two for Tennessee were created by game one, and we expect a different game and different outcome.
Kevin Francis Guaranteed Selections
5000* DIAMOND DOMINATOR BASEBALL WINNER
Tampa Bay w/Shields -135
Insiders Sports Network Guaranteed Selections
INSIDERS NETWORK HOME RUN WINNER
Pittsburgh w/Snell -120
JEFFERSONSPORTS
NFL EARLY RELEASE
EAGLES-2.5 1st halfMLB EARLY RELEASE
Detroit-165
Tampa Bay-125
Houston-155
Adding
Mets-148
Players of America
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Florida Marlins
The Play: Florida Marlins -110.0
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Its nice to see it took the Tigers 8 innings and two outs to even waltz out of the dug out on Wednesday night-a late rally falls short. Thank God for the rain delay in Detroit because we don't know about you, but it would have been very, very difficult to watch that team play a complete, 9 inning ball game, nonstopped. Its evident that Leyland and his team have virtually given up on this season, and it truly is a shame with the amount of talent and unlimited capability on that roster. One swing of the bat loses that game for us. A day off Wednesday in an attempt to rebound gone bad. We're crawling out of this slump sooner than later-guaranteed, and our season to date records assure us of that. In any sense, live and learn...on to Thursday's card where we'll keep firing...
It really feels like Vegas is up in the air on this one, and unsure of where to place the line. At 7:10PM EST, the Florida Marlins host the St. Louis Cardinals. The fish come in thirsty for a victory here, and their going to get it. Scott Olsen is the scheduled starter for Florida and he comes in at 6-7 overall with an ERA right around 4.00. His opponent's statistics are virtually the same. Scotty has actually pitched well his last three starts, but has little run support to give him victories. He's accumulated just a 3.58 ERA in those last three starts, along with a WHIP of 1.25. The Marlins are 1-2 this season against this Cardinals squad, and we look for them to even things up right here on a very short-posted spread.
St. Louis is putting Todd Wellemeyer on the mound. Todd comes in 9-5 overall with an ERA of 4.01 and a WHIP of 1.28. His numbers are very similar to Scott Olsen's, despite pitching 13 less innings. The Cardinals are 5-5 in their last ten games. Both of these teams need wins at this point in the season, and simply put...Florida at this price at home is a gift.
The Marlins take care of business tonight, and in convincing fashion. The price is right and we'll be laying 10 units on Florida to get the job done at home.
TRENDS OF THE GAME:
- The Cardinals are 1-9 in their last 10 Thursday games.
- The Marlins are 8-1 in their last 9 games following a loss.
Florida 6, St. Louis 2
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves
The Play: Atlanta Braves +140.0
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Our next and final selection today comes from Atlanta. The Braves host the red hot Chicago Cubs at 7:10PM EST. There is some big time value on the home doggie in this one, and we're leaning on the Braves for a worthy wager. Atlanta comes in disappointing to say the least. They are ten games shy of the even mark. However, they have been playing "better" baseball as of late. The Cubs on the other hand are America's favorite team, winning games left and right. All the bandwagoners are packed tightly aboard that ship.
The left handed veteran Tom Glavine will start for the Braves. Tom comes in just 2-3 on the season with an ERA of 4.85. We know, you might say "Wow, that's pretty high" and it is. Pitching isn't going to determine the outcome of this one, though. Glavine and the Braves might not be worldbeaters, but this is baseball and any team is capable of going out and putting together a darn good game on any given night. Atlanta is winless against this ball club on the season, but tonight they earn their first victory.
The Cubs will start the lefty Ted Lilly. Ted comes in at a solid 11-6 overall, but his ERA, too is approaching 4.50. He's given up nearly 150 hits in 148 innings. Chicago is pretty sure that their stuff don't stink right now, but a wake up call is coming loud and clear tonight. Good teams lose and bad teams win in this sport. Spotting value and exploiting it is the key to success.
With that being said, give us Atlanta, who is 110% fully capable of winning this game, at a nice size dog for 10 units.
Atlanta 7, Chicago 4