Sports Advisors
NFL PRESEASON
Pittsburgh (1-0 SU and ATS) vs. Buffalo (0-1, 1-0 ATS), at Toronto
The Steelers, who added Byron Leftwich to their quarterback stable this week after losing back Charlie Batch (broken collarbone) in their exhibition opener, meet up with the Bills in a rare exhibition game at the Rogers Centre in Toronto.
Pittsburgh topped the Eagles 16-10 as a one-point home underdog last week, improving to 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS under second-year coach Mike Tomlin. The Steelers – who managed just 189 yards of total offense in the victory, including 71 passing yards – went 3-0 (2-1 ATS) on the highway last August.
Buffalo got outgained155-67 on the ground in falling 17-14 at Washington in Week 1, but cashed as a 5½-point road underdog. The Bills, who are the designated home team for this game which is being played just north of Buffalo, are 3-6 in the preseason under third-year coach Dick Jauron (5-4 ATS). On the bright side, with last week’s spread-cover against the Redskins, Buffalo is now 6-0 ATS as an underdog since the start of the 2005 preseason and 9-2-1 ATS as an exhibition pup since 2003.
Starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who attempted (and completed) two passes in the game against the Eagles, is expected to play at least the first quarter for the Steelers, with Leftwich – a former starter for the Jaguars – coming on in the second quarter. Rookie Dennis Dixon is expected to start the second half, followed possibly by fellow rookie Mike Potts.
Despite completing just 1 of 5 passes last week, Trent Edwards will start at QB for the Bills, followed by J.P. Losman, Gilbran Hamdan and Matt Baker. With an offensive line beset by injuries, Jauron indicated that Edwards and the rest of the starters would not see much more playing time than they did last week, when the first-team offense took just nine snaps.
The under is 9-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 10 preseason games, including 5-0 in the last five on the road. Also, the under is 10-3 in Buffalo’s last 13 preseason outings since 2003.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH and UNDER
Carolina (1-0, 0-1 ATS) at Philadelphia (0-1 SU and ATS)
The Panthers head to Lincoln Financial Field for Week 2 of the preseason to take on the Eagles.
Carolina had a 14-3 lead over the Colts after the first quarter on Saturday, but needed overtime to put away Indy 23-20, coming up short as a four-point home chalk. The Panthers, who rolled up 441 total yards (209 rushing) in the victory, are 1-4 ATS in the preseason dating to the start of last year. However, since 2003, they’re 8-2 SU on the road in preseason play and 6-1 ATS as a preseason pup. In fact, since coach John Fox came on board, the Panthers are 8-3 ATS as a ‘dog in August.
Philadelphia went off as a one-point favorite at Pittsburgh on Friday, but lost 16-10, producing just 61 rushing yards while allowing 118 on the ground. The Eagles are now 8-14 SU and 10-12 ATS in August dating to 2005, including 1-4 SU and ATS going back to last year. However, they are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four preseason home games, and since 2004, they are 6-1 ATS in preseason play following a SU loss.
QB Jake Delhomme, whose only pass attempt last week was incomplete, will start for the Panthers, followed by Matt Moore, Brett Basanez and Lester Ricard. However, Fox indicated his first-team offense will not see substantial action until Carolina’s Week 3 preseason game against Washington. Wideouts Steve Smith (concussion) and Dwayne Jarrett (leg) aren’t expected to play tonight.
Donovan McNabb, who went 10 of 13 for 97 yards and a TD last week, is expected to play the entire first half for the Eagles, along with the rest of the offensive starters, Reid said. McNabb will give way to veteran backup A.J. Feeley, followed by Kevin Kolb. On the injury front for Philly, RB Brian Westbrook is battling a viral infection, so Correll Buckhalter will likely get the start.
These teams met in Week 2 of the preseason last year, with the Eagles rolling to a 27-10 victory as a three-point home favorite.
The over is 4-2 in Carolina’s last six preseason road games, but the under is 3-1 in Philadelphia’s last four August home contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (67-56) at Florida (63-58)
Todd Wellemeyer (9-4, 4.01 ERA) takes the ball for the Cardinals as they wrap up a four-game set against the Marlins, who will counter with southpaw Scott Olsen (6-7, 4.04) at Dolphin Stadium.
The teams have alternated wins and losses in the first three games of this series, with St. Louis prevailing 6-4 on Wednesday. Both squads have seen their playoff hopes slip a bit with their recent middling play – the Cards are 6-7 in their last 13 games and the Marlins are 11-12 in their last 23 contests. In addition, St. Louis is 6-13 in its last 19 games against winning teams, 1-9 in its last 10 Thursday outings and 3-7 in Wellemeyer’s last 10 starts. Florida, meanwhile, has lost in Olsen’s last four starts but is on an 18-8 run at home against winning teams.
This is the first series between St. Louis and Florida in 2008. However, the Cardinals have owned this rivalry in recent years, winning 12 of the last 16 meetings overall and eight of the last 10 in South Beach.
The Cardinals have alternated wins and losses in Wellemeyer’s last six starts, with the right-hander going 2-0 with four no-decisions. On Saturday against the Cubs, he was sharp, yielding all three runs on six hits in 6 2/3 innings in a 12-3 road rout.
Olsen is 0-3 with one no-decision in his last four starts, getting the loss in Saturday’s 8-6 road loss to the Mets. In that outing, he gave up five runs on nine hits in five innings, the second time in his last four starts that he’s allowed five or more runs.
Wellemeyer is 3-0 with a 3.36 ERA in 11 road starts this season, and he’s 0-0 with a bloated 7.36 ERA in three career appearances (no starts) against Florida. Olsen is 4-4 with 2.91 ERA in 14 home starts this year, and he’s 1-2 with an inflated 7.00 ERA in three career starts against St. Louis.
For St. Louis, the over is on streaks of 12-5-1 overall, 11-3-1 on the road and 8-3-1 versus the N.L. East. The over is also 11-5 in Olsen’s last 16 starts and 4-1-1 in Wellemeyer’s last six outings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Philadelphia (64-56) at L.A. Dodgers (61-59)
The Dodgers hand the ball to Hiroki Kuroda (6-8, 4.02 ERA) as they look to sweep this four-game home series against the Phillies, who will start Brett Myers (5-9, 5.09).
Los Angeles rallied to beat Philadelphia for the second straight night Wednesday, coming back from a 6-1 deficit to win 7-6 on a walk-off Nomar Garciaparra home run in the ninth to move into a first-place tie with Arizona atop the N.L. West standings. The Dodgers are on streaks of 11-3 at home and 7-0 against the N.L. East. The Phillies, meanwhile, have dropped five of its last seven games to fall back into a first-place tie with the Mets in the N.L. East.
The Dodgers have won five in row in this rivalry are 5-1 in the last six clashes in Los Angeles.
The Dodgers are 2-4 in Kuroda’s last six starts. On Saturday at San Francisco, the right-hander threw eight solid innings, allowing one run on eight hits, but the bullpen couldn’t make it stand up in a 3-2 loss.
The Phillies, who had lost six in a row behind Myers, have won in his last three starts, including a 4-2 home win Saturday over Pittsburgh. In that game, the right-hander allowed one run on five hits in 7 2/3 innings.
Kuroda is 4-1 with a 3.29 ERA in 10 home starts this season, and the first-year major leaguer will be making his first start against Philadelphia. Myers is 1-6 with a 6.61 ERA in 12 road starts this year, but he’s 3-1 with a 2.76 ERA in 10 career appearances (nine starts) against Los Angeles.
For Los Angeles, the under is on streaks of 8-4-1 overall, 27-13-1 at Dodger Stadium and 10-4 in Kuroda’s last 14 starts. The under is also 5-2-1 in Philadelphia’s last eight games. However, the over is 9-2-2 in the last 13 meetings between these teams and 8-0-2 in the past 10 battles at Dodger Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. DODGERS
Plus10Club
Ethan Law
Pick: Braves / Cubs OVER 9.5
Opposite Action Plays
Pick: PITTSBURGH PIRATES
JB Sports > Get more Picks
Pick: BUFFALO BILLS +3
Sunday Selections
Pick: BUFFALO BILLS
LT Profits
Pick: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -3
Mike Rose
Pick: Orioles / Indians OVER 11 9MLB: 7:05 ET)
Rocketman Sports
Pick: ARIZONA D'BACKS
Alex Smart
Pick: Stelers / Bills UNDER 33
Tom Stryker
MLB Total of the Month - 53-30 Run
Balt/Cleveland Over 10.5
KELSO
High Rollers Club
10 units - St. Louis
Sports Pro Unlimited
5* Boston -1.5 -125 POD
5* Fla -115
5* NYM -148
AJ APOLLO
3* Buffalo ML +105
Root
Chairman- StL Cardinals
Millionaire- Bills
Money Maker- Cubs
Matty O'Shea
NFL Total Play O' the Day
PHI / CAR Over 35.5
We saw what happened with the Panthers last week, as they got off to a very fast start and had 20 points by halftime. They only scored three points in the second half - which was good enough for a 23-20 win - but still proved they are taking the preseason seriously. Meanwhile, word in Philadelphia is that the Eagles will play their starters the entire first half of this game in hopes of doubling their point total from their preseason opener. This should also set up perfectly for the second half, as Philly will still have quality players in the game with a solid chance to score. Take the OVER as my Single Dime NFL Total Play O' the Day.
Charlies Sports
Carolina +3½ (500*)
Steelers @ Bills Over 33 (30*)
Pittsburgh-125 (20*)
Florida -120 (20*)
Dodgers -130 (10*)
Buffalo +2 (10*) free play
ATS Lock
4 units Phil -3
DAVE MALINSKY
BOSTON RED SOX -vs- Texas Rangers
4* BOSTON RED SOX Run Line -1.5
After giving up 27 runs in 16 Boston offensive innings so far in this series, it would seemingly be the case that the Ranger pitching staff has hit rock bottom. But that may not be true, as things go from awful to worse for Ron Washington tonight. Now with Vicente Padilla not ready to go he is forced to send 22-year old Tommy Hunter to the mound, the last thing he wants in the current feeding frenzy of the Red Sox bats. So once again we step in with the Run Line as a tool for an easy blowout. We are not sure that Hunter should be in the Major League?s at all. He began this season at Class A, and after stints there and at AA he worked only five games at AAA before getting an emergency call-up. It has meant a lot of travel and a lot of adjustments, and also a lot of innings - he is at 153 right now, with 150 being the level that Texas originally wanted to shut him down for the season. Instead he will be sent out for his third start, after the first two were total disasters in which he allowed 11 runs on 16 hits over just 9.2 innings. He does not have the savvy to deal with this lineup in this setting, and that once again means an early appearance for a struggling bullpen. Boston has no such issues on the mound. Daisuke Matsuzaka is on a 5-1/2.17 roll over his last eight starts, with opponents batting .198 in that span. Only once in that stretch did an opponent score more than two runs (the sizzling Angels), and in five of the outings he allowed one run or less. Now his task is made much easier by the likely absence of Josh Hamilton, and with Terry Francona able to get through last night?s win with the bottom of his bullpen, the right arms are in the right place for late-inning insurance here.
CHICAGO CUBS -vs- Atlanta Braves
6* Chicago Cubs Run Line -1.5
The first Ted Lilly/Tom Glavine encounter this season is one that we will remember fondly - it was a 6* Cub Run Line ticket in the +140 range that provided one of the biggest single-game payouts of the season in a 10-5 rout at Wrigley Field. This game has a chance to be more of the same, as we take advantage of a pitching mismatch that is wider than the market perceptions, and also by the major bias issues that each of these teams have vs. left-handed pitching (positive for the Cubs, negative for the Braves). Lilly got off to a slow start for Chicago this season, and as such his full-season numbers carry the burden of those early performances and do not fully reflect how good he has been. It has been an 11-3/3.55 since that 0-3 opening, and since the All Star break ian even better 2-0/2.76. We can confidently call for him to continue that form against a lineup lacking in right-handed punch, and with Kerry Wood now back in action, plus yesterday's pair of blowouts not taxing the bullpen, the latter innings are in good hands as well. With Chipper Jones not 100 percent, and with Brian McCann schedule for a night off after playing both games yesterday, there is not much to fear from a team that scored only two runs yesterday, despite facing right-handed starters. Meanwhile Glavine is nothing more than a finesse pitcher at this stage of his career, and that means a lot of precision is required for him to be successful. And success has not been easy to find of late, with a 2-5/6.33 over his last 20 starts. Not having started in over two months, and with only nine innings of two rehab appearances, there is little reason to fear anything special from him here in terms of that precision, and he admits it as much himself when addressing those rehab outings - "Physically, I felt pretty good when I pitched. One game I felt good mechanically and the second game I didn't feel so good. Kind of like spring training in that regard you don't know what you're going to feel like." This is anything but the right team at the right time for Glavine's return. the Cub right-handed trio of Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez has tagged him to a .369 lifetime tune, with seven home runs in 103 at-bats, and with Glavine unlikely to work deeply into this game there are bullpen issues galore - Buddy Carlyle (1.2 innings and 26 pitches), Vladimir Nunez (two and 53), Francisley Bueno (2.1 and 52), and Jeff bennett (two and 29) all came out of yesterday's twin-bill loss carrying major fatigue ratings. Once again we get an underdog return in a matchup that can break wide open, and that means that we can elevate our play to take full advantage.
LOS ANGELES DODGERS -vs- Philadelphia Phillies
4* UNDER 8.5
Last night's 7-6 Dodger win in this series has set us up with a rather unique value line for tonight - despite the fact that both starting pitchers are a step up in class from the Wednesday hook-ups, the Total has actually been set higher. That means excellent value for our purposes. Brett Myers may not appear to be a step up with the 5-9/5.09 that the pitching forms show, but that Minor League stint did exactly what it was supposed to do - he regained his rhythm, and it has been a rock-solid 2-0/2.10 in his return, with only 16 hits allowed in 25.2 innings. He has pitched at an excellent efficiency level, with three straight starts of 12.6 Pitches-Per-Inning or less, and he did not have more fly-ball outs than ground-ball outs in any of those games. We can call for that form to continue against a Los Angeles lineup that continues to show a negative bias against right-handers, and the ability of Myers to churn innings helps to alleviate some of those Phillie bullpen issues. Meanwhile we lost a tough ticket in backing Hideki Kuroda in his last outing, a 3-2 Dodger defeat in extra innings at San Francisco, but the right-hander gave us exactly what we were looking for. The only run that the Giants scored in his eight innings came in bizarre fashion, with a batter reaching base on a strikeout being a key to that inning. Now having worked 15.1 innings over back-to-back strong starts (only 189 pitches needed, with just two walks), his rhythm is also where we want it. On the first look for a Phillie offense that has also had a negative bias against right-handers we can expect him to be a step ahead of the hitters all night.
STADIUM CLUB SPORTS
Los Angeles Dodgers -120 3 units! POD
Pittsburgh Pirates -120 1 unit!
BRANDON LANG
25 dimes Eagles -3
5 dimes Brewers
5 dimes Cubs
5 dimes Steelers/Bills under
Ben Burns
4* Buffalo Bills +1.5
NSA
20* Buffalo +1.5
10* Philadelphia -3
10* Tampa Bay -130
10* Milwaukee +100
10* Cubs -140
10* Dodgers -130