Gator
70% Super Situation
Thursday: Play On MLB (AL) favorites with a money line of -150 or more with a team batting average <=.265 against a starting pitcher whose ERA <=4.20, in the second half of the season, 72-17 SU since 1997 (80.9%)
PLAY: Los Angeles Angels -155
Top Angle
Thursday: Washington is 1-14 SU against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season this season.
Doc's Sports
Oakland Athletics @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Over
The Mariners got spanked right out of the Windy City and now head home on Thursday as Game 1 of this three games series takes place @ Safeco Field in Seattle, WA. Seattle has some of the worst starting pitching in the league and do not expect it to get much better with Ryan Rowland-Smith on the mound, as he has allowed nine runs in just over 10 innings of work in his last two outings. In his last three starts the combined scores of the games have been 13 runs, 15 runs, and 15 runs. We just need 8 ½ runs in this game and we expect to cruise to another victory. Doc’s Sports is your place for consistent MLB winners and we have 37 years of experience. Look for another strong card on Thursday!
SCOTT FERRALL
BASEBALL LOCKS FOR THURSDAY
Zambrano -320 over Josh Fogg and the Reds--The Cubs will rock at Wrigley in this one
Derek Lowe -185 and the Dodgers hold off the Rockies at Chavez Revine
Marlins -160 and Josh Johnson over the Giants in the Bay
Oakland +105 at Seattle--Greg Smith beats Rowland-Smith in the Emerald City
Baker and the Twins +135 in the UPSET SPECIAL at Anaheim over John Lackey
Halladay -170 over Ponson and the Yankees in Toronto
BASEBALL OVER-UNDERS FOR THURSDAY
OAK-SEATT OVER 8.5
MINN-ANGELS OVER 8
NY-TOR UNDER 8.5
KC-CLEVE UNDER 7.5
SD-ARIZ OVER 8
ATL-NY OVER 9.5
WASH-PHILLY UNDER 9
COLO-LA OVER 8.5
BASEBALL FREE B's FOR WEDNESDAY
KC -110 with Gil Meche actually winning a game for once over the Tribe in Cleveland
White Sox -215 over Seattle and RA Dickey, who can't get anybody out and throws lots of wild pitches because he's a sloppy knuckleballer
Twins -260 over the A's at the Homerdone--Liriano over Braden
SF and Matt Cain -115 over Olsen and the Marlins in the Bay
Colorado +165 and Francis over Billingsley and the Dodgers at Chavez Revine
SD +145 and the Padres over Arizona as Jake Peavy comes through again and tops Dan Haren in a good one in the desert
NFL WEEK 3 PRE-SEASON
BEARS -3.5 to the 49er's at Soldier Field--you know Orton is going to show off his goods on that San Fran defense in the Windy City--UNDER 37
Joe Gaffney
San Francisco 49ers vs. Chicago Bears
Play: San Francisco 49ers
DUNKEL
Oakland at Seattle
After dropping six straight on the road, the Mariners return home and look to take advantage of Oakland's 5-9 record as a road underdog between +100 and +125. Seattle is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Mariners favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-115). Here are all of today's games.
THURSDAY, AUGUST 21
Game 901-902: Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Fogg) 14.876; Cubs (Zambrano) 17.536
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 2 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-305); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-305); N/A
Game 903-904: Colorado at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (De La Rosa) 15.554; LA Dodgers (Lowe) 15.069
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+170); Under
Game 905-906: Florida at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Johnson) 15.315; San Francisco (Palmer) 14.364
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-160); Under
Game 907-908: Washington at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Redding) 12.265; Philadelphia (Moyer) 14.873
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-265); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-265); Under
Game 909-910: Atlanta at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hampton) 12.866; NY Mets (Martinez) 15.123
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 2 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-205); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-205); Over
Game 911-912: San Diego at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Reinke) 15.055; Arizona (Webb) 16.902
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-325); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-325); Over
Game 913-914: Kansas City at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Greinke) 13.231; Cleveland (Lee) 15.917
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 2 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-205); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-205); Over
Game 915-916: NY Yankees at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Ponson) 16.217; Toronto (Halladay) 15.620
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-175); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+165); Under
Game 917-918: Minnesota at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Baker) 16.414; LA Angels (Lackey) 16.121
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+150); Over
Game 919-920: Oakland at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Smith) 13.172; Seattle (Rowland-Smith) 14.941
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 2; 9
Vegas Line: Seattle (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-115); Over
SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL PRESEASON
San Francisco (1-1 SU and ATS) at Chicago (0-2 SU and ATS)
The 49ers, who have a quarterback controversy brewing, make their first preseason trip out of the Bay Area when they travel to Soldier Field to take on the Bears to open Week 3 play.
After managing just six points in their preseason opener at Oakland, the 49ers came back and throttled the Packers 34-6 last week at home, finishing with a 355-182 edge in total yards while easily cashing as a 2½-point home favorite. San Francisco is now 9-5 ATS in exhibition play since coach Mike Nolan took over in 2005, but the team has lost nine straight preseason road games, going 3-6 ATS.
Chicago has given up 53 points in its first two games, including last week’s 29-26 overtime loss to the Seahawks as a three-point road favorite. The Bears hung around despite an anemic offensive effort, getting outgained by an eye-popping 431-205 margin, with the Seahawks rushing for 241 yards. The Bears, who lost 24-20 to the Chiefs at home in Week 1, are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 preseason games at Soldier Field dating to 2002, going 3-9-1 ATS as a favorite during this stretch.
Alex Smith’s days as the 49ers’ starting quarterback appear to be dwindling. With coaches typically giving their starters most of the playing time in Week 3, San Francisco will start J.T. O’Sullivan at quarterback and play him the entire first half, followed by Smith in the third quarter and Shaun Hill in the fourth. Last week, O’Sullivan was 8 of 17 for 154 yards, with one TD and one INT.
Chicago coach Lovie Smith has already made up his mind on his regular-season starting QB, giving Kyle Orton the nod over Rex Grossman. Orton is expected to play into the third quarter against the 49ers, followed by Grossman and Caleb Hanie. Orton came off the bench and went 5 of 9 for 43 yards last week, leading a field-goal drive late in the first half.
These teams met in Week 3 of last year’s preseason, with the Bears prevailing 31-28, but falling short as a 5½-point home favorite. They also faced off in Week 1 of the 2006 preseason, with San Francisco winning 28-14 as a one-point home underdog.
Including last year’s non-cover against the 49ers, the Bears are 1-4 ATS (2-3 SU) the last five years in Week 3 of the exhibition campaign.
The ‘dog has been the play throughout the league thus far in the preseason, going 22-8-2 ATS this August.
Chicago has topped the total five times in its last six summer affairs since the start of last season. Also, the over has hit in each of the last two preseason clashes between these teams (both in Chicago). However, the under is still 4-1 in San Francisco’s last five August road games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (67-59) at Toronto (65-61)
The Blue Jays send out ace Roy Halladay (14-9, 2.64 ERA) to wrap up a three-game series at Rogers Centre against the Yankees, who will start fellow right-hander Sidney Ponson (7-3, 4.19).
The teams have split the first two games of this set, with Toronto winning 2-1 on Monday and New York earning a 5-1 victory last night. The Blue Jays remain on runs of 7-1 overall, 7-3 in A.L. East play, 15-8 at home and a lengthy 44-14 in Halladay’s last 58 home starts. Meanwhile, the Yankees are 6-3 behind Ponson since signing him in June, but they are on slides of 4-7 overall, 2-6 on the highway and 2-6 against winning teams.
New York now holds a slim 6-5 edge in the season series with Toronto, and the host has won seven of the 11 clashes.
The Blue Jays have alternated wins and losses in Halladay’s last seven starts, with the veteran going 4-3 with a sterling 2.01 ERA over 53 2/3 innings during this stretch. On Saturday at Boston, Halladay shut down the Sox in a 4-1 victory, throwing a seven-hit complete game.
The Yanks have lost in three of Ponson’s last five starts, but they came away with a 3-2 home win Saturday over Kansas City. In that outing, Ponson allowed two runs on seven hits in 6 1/3 innings.
Halladay is 6-4 with a 2.77 ERA in 11 home starts this season, and he’s 12-5 with a 2.88 ERA in 29 career appearances (27 starts) against New York. Ponson, who was with Texas the first 2½ months of the season, is 4-3 with a 4.20 ERA in seven road starts this year, and he’s 7-10 with a 4.59 ERA in 19 career appearances (18 starts) against Toronto.
In this rivalry, the under is on streaks of 9-3 overall (2-0 in this series), 6-1 in Toronto and 7-0 with Halladay throwing at home for the Jays. The under is also 7-2 in New York’s last nine overall, 17-4-1 in Toronto’s last 22 games overall and 15-3 in Toronto’s last 18 at home. Finally, the total has stayed low in the last four starts for both Halladay and Ponson.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TORONTO and UNDER
Minnesota (72-54) at L.A. Angels (77-48)
Two of the American League’s top teams open up a four-game set in Anaheim, with the Angels giving the ball to John Lackey (10-2, 3.22 ERA) and the Twins trotting out Scott Baker (7-3, 3.91).
Los Angeles got a run in the top of the ninth inning Wednesday night to beat Tampa Bay 5-4, snapping a three-game losing skid and avoiding getting swept by the Rays. Although the Angels are still just 2-5 in their last seven outings, they’re carry the following positive streaks into this contest: 5-1 at home, 23-8 versus winning teams, 9-2 against right-handed starters and 21-7 when Lackey starts a series.
Minnesota beat Oakland 3-1 Wednesday to take two of three from the Athletics, giving the Twins a 38-18 mark in their last 56 games overall (5-1 in their last six). On the flip side, they are 3-7 in their last 10 on the road against right-handers and 4-9 in Baker’s last 13 starts against the A.L. West.
This is the second series of the season between these two, with Los Angeles having taken three of four games in a season-opening set at the Metrodome. The Angels are 7-1 in the last eight clashes in this rivalry and 19-7 in the last 26 meetings in L.A., and they are on a 5-0 tear when Baker starts for the Twins.
The Angels have gone 6-1 in Lackey’s last six starts, winning the last two. On Saturday at Cleveland, Lackey allowed three runs on six hits in six innings of a 4-3 victory. L.A. is also unbeaten won in Lackey’s last three home starts, piling up an eye-popping 36 runs in the process.
The Twins had lost two in a row behind Baker before Saturday’s 7-6 home win over Seattle. In that outing, Baker gave up four runs on eight hits in 5 1/3 innings in helping turn a 5-0 Twins lead into a 6-5 deficit as the Mariners scored six runs in the sixth inning. He ended up with his fourth straight no-decision.
Lackey is 4-1 with a 3.60 ERA in eight home starts this season, and he’s 5-5 with a 4.15 ERA in 12 career starts against Minnesota. Baker is 4-2 with a 4.46 ERA in 11 road starts this year, but he’s 0-4 with an inflated 7.36 ERA in five career starts against Los Angeles.
For the Angels, the over is on runs of 8-2 against right-handed starters, 7-1 in series openers and 5-1 at home. For the Twins, the over streaks include 5-2 on the highway, 21-9-2 against the A.L. West and 5-0 in Baker’s last five starts overall. In this rivalry, though, the under is 4-1-1 in the last six matchups and 17-8-3 in the past 28 meetings in L.A.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS
Sports Gambling Hotline
NY Yankees at TORONTO -170
The price on Roy Halladay is a big one tonight, so we will back the Blue Jays on the RUN LINE to hand the Yankees another loss.
On Monday, AJ Burnett fanned 13 Yankees as Toronto held on for a 2-1 win. Tonight it won't be that close, as Sidney Ponson can only hold the fort down for so long.
We don't see the Yanks mustering much offense against Roy Halladay who has allowed exactly 3 earned runs over his last 24 innings of work for a 2-1 mark.
Against New York, Halladay sports a 2-1 mark this year, and in his last start against the Yankees in mid-July, Halladay worked a complete game 2-hit shutout with 8 K's along the way.
Good chance the Yankees are held to just 1 run tonight, while Toronto gets a few off Ponson in the middle innings to carry the night for us.
RUN LINE play on the Blue Jays, and Halladay tonight.
3♦ TORONTO RUN LINE
Bobby Maxwell
N.Y. Yankees at TORONTO -170
It's easy to say play the Blue Jays with Roy Halladay (14-9, 2.64 ERA) on the hill but we're going to play them on the Runline to improve our odds.
The Blue Jays are 9-2 the last 11 times Halladay's taken the hill against the Yankees and he's got a 1.14 ERA in his last three starts overall. He's got a 2.77 ERA in front of the home fans and the Jays are 6-3 in his last nine overall. He's allowed one run in four of his last five starts.
Last time Halladay saw the Yankees was July 11 when he blanked them on two hits and got a complete-game 5-0 win. He'll give up a run or two tonight but his offense will get the job done.
Sidney Ponson (7-3, 4.19) goes for the Yankees and last time he was on the road he allowed four runs in 7.2 innings of a 4-0 loss to the Twins.
Toronto is 15-8 in their last 23 home games while the Yankees are just 4-7 in their last 11 overall. We'll play the Blue Jays on the Runline tonight. Halladay will shut them down and the offense will easily get at least a two-run win.
3♦ TORONTO RUNLINE
Karl Garrett
San Francisco at CHICAGO
NFL total for you tonight, as I see an OVER in this 49ers-Bears game.
Chicago played another preseason OVER last weekend, as the combined for 55-points at Seattle. That makes 2 straight games OVER the closing total, and puts the Bears on an overall run of 5-1 HIGH their last 6 preseason games.
The 49ers scored 34 last week in their 34-6 romp of Green Bay, as that game went OVER the posted price.
This is the third year in a row that these teams are meeting in the preseason, both previous games sailed OVER the posted price, and I like this one to also head OVER the total by the time we finish all 4 quarters.
Play the HIGH here.
2♦ OVER
Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections
5* A's/Mariners over the total
Since reliever Brandon Morrow was sent to Triple A, the Seattle bullpen has been in turmoil: After Miguel Batista and Jake Woods combined to give up five runs in relief this week, the bullpen has yielded 32 earned runs in 41 innings for a 6.97 ERA. Seattle's pitching has been a mess all season, while Oakland's has fallen off since July after trading away their best starters. Neither starters in this game, Greg Smith and Ryan Rowland-Smith, is any good. Both teams have been on good over runs of late, with Seattle on a 14-5 run over the total. Play the A's/Mariners over the total
PlusLineSports
San Diego vs Arizona
Arizona -1.5
Dave Cokin
OAK Athletics and SEA Mariners
Take OAK Athletics
Greg Smith is only 5-12 for the A's and the rookie lefty has been showing some signs of wear lately as his control has been kind of shaky. But Smith still sports a sub-4 ERA, and that shows that his poor W/L ledger is more a result of poor support and bad luck than anything else. Ryan Rowland-Smith is still transitioning from the bullpen to the rotation for the Mariners, so perhaps six innings is the most we'll likely see from him. In a game where both pen figure to log multiple innings, Oakland has a considerable edge. In a matchup of two awful teams, my pick is the A's.
Big Al Mcmordie
Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
Reason: At 10:10pm our member selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Oakland Athletics. A pair of young, lefthanded "Smiths" will face off tonight for the two cellar-dwellers in the AL West Division. Seattle's 25-year-old from Sydney Australia named Ryan is actually a hyphenated Smith (Roland-Smith) but despite being from down under and playing for the worst team in the American League, Smith's future may be bright. The 6-3, 240 pounder has been putting up solid numbers for most of the season, although he may still be more suited to being a setup man than a starter. Oakland's 24-year-old Greg Smith has also been pretty solid and may just be the best 5-12 starter in baseball. The fact that Greg Smith can't go very deep into a game (usually about 5 innings) has really had a negative effect on his win column, as he regularly has to hand it over to a bullpen that has been pretty decimated by injuries this season. The biggest problem for Oakland in this game however will be its inability to hit leftahanded pitching as the A's have a team batting average of just .233 vs. southpaws, while Seattle's average is a full 50 points higher (.283). Oakland is one team that Seattle has actually done very well against lately, taking eight of the last thirteen games between the two clubs. Take the Mariners.
Carlo Campanella comp
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: Minnesota Twins
Reason: Minnesota starts Scott Baker on the mound playing at Los Angeles on Thursday night. The Angels have won 7 of the last 9 at home in this series, including beating Baker the last 3 times they've faced him- Winning 10-1, 5-1, 6-3- while pounding him for 17 Earned Runs in just 15 Innings Pitched!
7* Play on LA Angels
Jimmy The Moose comp
Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Over
Prior to last night's game the Rockies had played the over in 3 straight games while the over was 3-1 in the Dodgers last 4 games. The over is 4-1 in De La Rosa's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-2-1 in LA's last 9 home games. The Dodgers bats have shown signs of life since Manny came over in the trade. The over is 5-2 in Lowe's last 7 starts vs. divisional opponents. The over is a profitable 13-6 in the last 19 meetings between the clubs. Play the over.