Larry Ness
Total of the Year
20* Chi/Clev OVER
JEN BARRY
10,000* MUST WIN LOCK
WAKE FOREST -12 AT BAYLOR
Too much speed and athleticism for Wake Forest and Baylor just isnt going to score enough points to hang in this one.
They were 0-8 in Big 12 play last season and couldnt score points to save their lives. Wake Forest is a solid ACC team that can put points on the board but theyll easily win this game tonight because of their defensive play, which should dominaye a weak Bears offense.
Take Wake Forest here and look for a 24 point blowout win.
The Fat Jack
Cleveland Browns
Larry Ness
Las Vegas Insider-MLB (now 43-25 w/MLB Insiders since May 26)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the TB Rays at 7:10 ET. It didn't come easy but the Rays edged the Blue Jays 1-0 last night, giving them an opportunity to capture their three-game series with the Jays with a win tonight. Nothing about the '08 season has been "typical" for Tampa, a franchise which had finished last in NINE of its previous 10 seasons. With last night's win, the Rays moved to 80-51, joining the Angels (82-50) and the Cubs (83-50) as the only clubs in MLB with 80 wins this season. Setting the stage for tonight's game, Tampa Bay lost four games in Cleveland just before the All-Star break but has since won 10 of its last 11 series (also split a four-game series in KC from July 24-27). The Rays have also won seven consecutive home series since dropping two of three games with the Astros from June 20-22 in Tampa. The Rays are 48-19 (plus-$2,375) at home in '08, including an impressive 35-11 vs right-handers. They'll face Jesse Litsch tonight, pitching for a Toronto team which the Rays have beaten in 10 of 14 meetings this year. Litsch went 7-9 with a 3.81 ERA in 20 starts last year (team was 9-11) as a rookie. He'll take a 9-7 mark with a 4.01 ERA into tonight's game in '08, a year in which he's been very erratic. Litsch had two terrible starts right before the break and then when his first start back from the break was again a poor one (10.66 ERA in that three-start stretch), Litsch was sent down to the minors on July 23. He was recalled on August 12 and made a start at Detroit. He pitched well in that game (7 IP / 4 hits / 0 ERs) but the Blue Jays lost, 5-1. In his only other start since returning to the majors (8/23 vs Boston), he went six innings while allowing three hits and no ERs of an 11-0 win. That means he's got a streak of 13 scoreless innings since his return but let's NOT forget that in his five prior road starts to his 8/14 start at Detroit, he went 0-4 (team was 0-5), posting a 7.67 ERA. That means the Jays have lost his last SIX road starts. That's NOT good news when playing in Tropicana Field. The Rays will counter with Edwin Jackson, who's rebounded from a horrible '07 season (5-15 with a 5.76 ERA / team was 8-23 in his starts), to go 10-8 with a 3.93 ERA in 25 starts (team is 14-11) in '08. I guess the Rays will have to lose a series sometime but I'm betting it's NOT this one. Las Vegas Insider on the TB Rays.
Non-Conference Game of the Month (18-8 start in CFB '07!)-Thursday
My Non-Conference Game of the Month is on South Carolina at 8:00 ET. Steve Spurrier begins his fourth season at South Carolina, while Tom O'Brien begins his second year at NC State, after leaving Boston College. The Gamecocks won six of their first seven games in '07, including victories over Georgia (16-12) and Kentucky (38-23). The school made it all the way to No. 6 in the polls but then "fell flat on its face," dropping its last five games, including heartbreaking losses to Tennessee (27-24 in OT) and Clemson (23-21). NC State stumbled out of the gates last season in O'Brien's first year, losing four of its first five games, with the lone win coming 38-17 over Wofford. However, the Wolfpack won four straight contests to even their record at 5-5 but finished the season by losing 38-18 at Wake Forest and 37-0 at home to Maryland. NC State has struggled offensively over the past few seasons, not averaging 21.0 PPG in ANY of the last three years. I expect them to struggle this year as well (especially early on), as O'Brien has decided redshirt freshman Russell Wilson will QB the Pack against South Carolina. Wilson will be just the third NC State freshman to start in his first-ever college contest since 1971. It won't help Wilson that the team's best returning WR (Donald Bowens / 41 catches LY) is out for the year with an injury, leaving only players like Jarvis Williams (10 catches) and Owen Spencer (five catches). RB Eugene caught 42 passes last year but only ran for 667 yards (3.9 YPC), the leading rusher on a team which averaged a pathetic 89.3 YPG on the ground (3.0 YPC), which left them 110th in the nation. Moving the ball against the South Carolina "D," will not be easy. The Gamecocks will be greatly improved TY with 10 starters back, including now-healthy MLB Brinkley (missed final eight games with injury LY) and OLB Norwood (school-record 19� tackles for a loss LY). QB Tommy Beecher will be making his first start for South Carolina on Thursday but he's a dual threat and has Kenny McKinley 77 catches / 9 TDs) to throw to. The South Carolina ground game struggled a year ago averaging just 3.6 YPC but the Gamecocks will have four starting OL back for TB Mike Davis, who gained 518 yards (4.5 YPC) as a backup LY (expect 1,000-plus in '08). The NC State defense was not very good in '07, especially against the run, allowing 186.4 YPG and this year's pass "D" will likely start two redshirt freshman in the 2ndy. Spurrier does have his SEC opener on deck next week at Vandy but after last year's collapse (due partly to some bad breaks and injuries) I expect him to "set a tone" for the year with a good effort in front of the ESPN cameras. NC State was known as a great road dog under former coach Chuck Amato but that was then and this is now. Note that after losing its first game of the '07 season (at home to UCF, 25-23), NC State's final six losses came by margins of 20, 22, 19, 17, 20 and 37. This has "blowout written all over it!". Non-Conference Game of the Month 15* NC State.
Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-CFB (18-8 start to CFB '07!)-Thursday
My Oddsmaker's Error is on Buffalo at 7:00 ET. Turner Gill was a hot coaching prospect and it would be hard to argue against the fact that he's made major improvements here at Buffalo in just two short years. He took over the Buffalo program in 2006, one which had gone 5-41 from 2002-05. He struggled to a 2-10 mark in his first year but in '07, he began to turn things around in upstate New York. The Bulls opened with four road games in their first five in '07 (first three were on the road), starting 1-4. However, they went 4-3 down the stretch to finish 5-7. Gill has upgraded the school's recruiting process, adding players with better speed and more athleticism. Buffalo has 18 returning starters for '08, including 10 on the offensive side of the ball. QB Drew Willy completed 68.4 percent last year (2,572 yards) with 15 TDs and just six INTs. In fact, he didn't throw an INT in any of his last 235 attempts, as he had 11 TDPs without an INT in the team's final seven games. Junior RB James Starks returns after rushing for 1,103 yards (4.4 YPC) last year, the OL loses just one starter and the entire receiving corps return intact. Buffalo's defense leaves a lot to be desired but it did play better during its 4-3 finish (22.6 PPG) and EIGHT starters do return. AS for UTEP, Mike Price will be entering his fifth year with the Miners. He took over the program in 2004 and quickly turned things around. The Miners had gone just 6-30 in the three years prior to Price's arrival but he promptly posted consecutive 8-4 seasons in '04 and '05, which included bowl appearances each year. However, UTEP fell to 5-7 in '06 and last year went 4-8, ending the season on a six-game losing streak. Trevor Vittoe (3,101 yards with 25 TDs and just seven INTs) is a dangerous QB and while leading receiver Jeff Moturi returns, the remaining receiving corps is all new. RB Marcus Thomas (1,166 yards / 5.1 YPC / 18 TDs) is also gone and the Miners will hope that ex-Oregon player Terrell Jackson (just 212 YR last year with UTEP) can fill his shoes. While UTEP topped 40 points in five games last year, the offensive was typically overshadowed by a terrible defensive. UTEP ranked 117th in the nation in total defense (504.8 YPG) and 113th in scoring defense (37.1 PPG). The team's pass "D" was awful, ranking 117th while allowing 301.8 YPG, 61.9 percent completions with 29 TDs and 18 INTs. The "D" also had just 16 sacks on the year. Price has five new defensive assistants this year and the team will be installing a new 3-3-5 scheme. Seven starters return on the defensive side of the ball but that's not likely good news. The Miners were 1-5 SU on the road last year (winning only at 1-11 SMU, 48-45 in OT!), allowing 40.8 PPG and 525 YPG in the six games. In this game, they'll face a motivated Buffalo team which will play at Pitt, Missouri and Central Michigan in THREE of its next four contests. Buffalo needs a win here, to avoid a disastrous start to '08. In comparison, UTEP returns home to El Paso on September 6, for a VERY rare visit by the Longhorns. Oddsmaker's Error on Buffalo.
Feist
Inner Circle - Titans
Cokin
Under The Hat- Browns
Teddy June
TOY
Vikings / Dallas Under
William Kidd Guaranteed Selections
QUADRUPLE COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOTALS PLAY OF THE MONTH
Troy and Middle Tenn St UNDER 52
Ace-Ace
4-Unit Play. Take Stanford (+3) over Oregon State