Wise Guy Handicapping
4 UNITS Philadelphia Eagles -3
3 UNITS Wake Forest -12
Charlie's Sports
Hit 8/9 last 500*
Have hit 8 of last 9
Ethan Law
TROY (0-0) at MIDDLE TENN ST (0-0)
I'm going to keep this analysis rather short and sweet because not much needs to be said about the theory as to why I am playing this particular selection tonight. We are going to look at this early match-up, which is arguably going to be one of the very best and most important games of this opening weekend for both teams. This is a key Sun-belt contest and the one game circled on the Middle Tennessee State calendar because if they lose this one, their hopes of capturing the Sun Belt title will be slim at best. Now most people would say that I'm crazy for simply stating that "if" Middle Tennessee loses the first game of the season, their conference hopes are dashed. But that hypothetical is not without merit. Indeed, if anything this IS the statement game for the Blue Raiders. They have non-conference affairs with Maryland on deck, and then Kentucky, which they almost assuredly know they are going to lose. After that they have two very tough match-ups at Arkansas State and a home game against Florida Atlantic, which unfortunately are the two other best teams in the division. As such, a loss tonight could mean that the Blue Raiders could start the season 0-3 in conference play. Compare that with Troy, who was the very best team in the league "last season" and who has a very difficult turnaround with Florida Atlantic on deck. By the time they play Florida Atlantic they will have been drubbed by Texas and will be eager to avenge that national embarrassment. So at a minimum we know the scheduling spot clearly favors the Blue Raiders.
Moving to the situational and fundamental side of this selection we have a virtual split. Middle Tennessee is playing this game with revenge after last seasons ending 45-7 embarrassment at Troy. That loss was coach Rick Stockstill's worst-ever conference loss with the Blue Raiders and he has had all season to prepare and erase that from his memory. If you go on the Blue Raiders website and read the Press conference, and read the practice reports you can see they mean business tonight. Fundamentally, MTSU should also be an improved team this year (they were solid last season), and are returning their senior quarterback in Joe Craddock who leads an offense that returns seven (7) starters and one that averaged a very respectable 29 points, 123 yards rushing, and 210 passing in conference play. According to the practice reports, Craddock has been airing it out in preseason camp much more than in the previous two years in the offensive system and might have some new wrinkles tonight. Meanwhile, Troy comes into tonight with incredibly high expectations for the season, but those expectations could be too high considering that Troy will be coming in without their top two rushers, top two receivers, and starting quarterback from last year. Moreover, Troy's offense lost their genius with offensive coordinator Tony Franklin, departing and taking his spread offense to Auburn. Despite the fact that Middle Tennessee also has some issues to deal with, there's enough talent on both sides of the ball to come up with a key home win to make a major statement in the Sun Belt title chase. I smell sweet revenge and the fact that we are getting virtually a full touchdown makes this play an absolute no-brainer.
Verdict: Troy 24, Middle Tennessee State 31
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +6.5
Tommy Rider
UTEP at Buffalo (-3.5)
I grew up a few hours from Buffalo so I know what kind of football program they had there before Turner Gill arrived. What he's done with the Bulls is one of the most amazing coaching jobs I've ever seen. To think they may have a chance at a bowl game this season is unbelievable when you consider that just a few years ago this program was a laughingstock. Tonight Mike "It's Rolling Baby" Price and UTEP visit Western NY in what is a big game for each squad. Both teams have explosive offenses and questionable defenses, so expect to see a lot of points on the board tonight.
Tommy's Pick: Over 59
Vanderbilt at Miami, OH (-4)
This is my forum play for tonight and I took Vandy +4 points. I know Miami is expected to compete in the MAC but Vandy isn't a MAC team. They play in this other conference called the SEC. When I look at this line, I see tremendous value here. Both teams are led by their defenses, so I can see a close, low-scoring game here. Vandy's secondary, led by all-everything CB D.J. Moore, is actually one of the better units in the SEC. The Commodores will certainly miss WR Earl Bennett but other than that, I think they'll be fine. I expect the MAC conference to better overall this year but any time one of those teams is giving four points to an SEC squad, I have to take the points, even if it's Vanderbilt.
Tommy's Pick: Vanderbilt +4
NC State at South Carolina (-14.5)
I'm really looking forward to watching this game tonight. I think both of these teams are going to be vastly improved this year. Everyone is talking about the Gamecocks and while I think this could be a breakout year for Steve Spurrier at South Carolina, don't underestimate the Wolfpack. This is Tom O'Brien's second year in Raleigh and he's equipped with a strong stable of running backs and what should be a solid defense. The question for both teams is at quarterback. I give South Carolina's Tommy Beecher an edge over NC State's Russell Wilson and I think that will be the deciding factor tonight. However, 14.5 is too many points in this one.
Tommy's Pick: NC State +14.5
Wake Forest (-11.5) at Baylor
Wake is a popular pick on the forums and to be honest, they should be. I keep hearing how Jim Grobe doesn't blow teams out on the road. That may be true in the past but don't you think some of that has to do with the fact Wake wasn't always overflowing with talent? That's not a problem this season. The Demon Deacons are loaded on both sides of the ball. Led by quarterback Riley Skinner and future first-round corner Alphonso Smith, there are very few holes on this Wake Forest team. The same can't be said for Baylor. When I did my power rankings, the Bears rated as one of the worst teams in college football. Art Briles will win at Baylor, it just won't start tonight.
Tommy's Pick: Wake Forest -11.5
Oregon State (-3) at Stanford
This is a tough one to call. I was originally siding with the Beavers here but when I looked at the game closer, I really Stanford's defense heading into the season. People are making a huge deal because the Beavs lost their entire starting front seven but last year reserve ends Victor Butler and Slade Norris combined for 19.5 sacks. I see both defenses dominating this game with points being hard to come by. I still like the Beavers to come out on top because I think overall they are more talented but the under makes more sense to me than trying to pick a side.
Tommy's Pick: Under 45.5
Troy (-6.5) at Middle Tennessee State
I really have no opinion on this game. Troy lost a ton of production off last year's explosive offense, while the Blue Raiders return just 10 starters from a year ago. I think Middle Tennessee is going to be able to score some points this year but their defense looks atrocious to me. Because of that, I think Troy will be able to score easily tonight, even with an inexperienced quarterback under center.
Tommy's Pick: Over 53.5
Rocketman
Tennessee @ Green Bay
Play: 3* Tennessee -5 1/2
Tennessee is 16-6 ATS on the road since 1993. Fisher is 15-6 ATS on the road in preseason. Fisher is 22-6 ATS against NFC Opponents. McCarthy is 1-5 ATS as an underdog. Green Bay is 1-4 SU and ATS in this series. Green Bay is 2-7 SU and ATS last 9 against AFC opponents. Tennessee is expected to play their starters well into the 3rd quarter. We'll play Tennessee for 3 units tonight!
Eddie Roman
10,000 Unit Two Touchdown Cover Blowout of the Year
South Carolina Gamecocks -13.5
PRO INFO SPORTS
1 STAR SELECTION (2% of Bankroll)
WASHINGTON -3 over Jacksonville
The Jaguars make a trip to D.C. on Thursday to face the red-faced Redskins, who got destroyed last week in Carolina. The Redskins will kick off their season with a Thursday night date at the defending Super Bowl Champion Giants next week, so they need to get their confidence back in a big way.
Although he acknowledged there is the potential for injury in another meaningless preseason game, new 'Skins coach Jim Zorn believes that having his top offensive performers end the preseason on such a down note of a 47-3 loss could be an even a bigger gamble. The Redskins support his decision:
"It only makes sense' to have the starters play again", wide receiver Antwaan Randle El said. "It makes sense to get back out there, get it tuned up, cranked up and get it fixed. You just don't want to have that as your last impression going into your season. Really, your last impression shouldn't be that."
One of our strongest NFLX handicapping strategies is to play ON a team off a poor performance by its 1st and 2nd-stringers. If a veteran unit was dominated by its counterpart in the previous game, there's a good chance they will have a fire lit under them. We will never see a stronger example of this than we have here with Washington. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is off a solid victory at Tampa, allowing us to play AGAINST a team relaxed off a win and not concerned about another victory.
We have numerous NFLX POWER SYSTEMS active for this game favoring the Redskins. Game 4 and 5 teams (not a favorite of more than 4 points) off a SU loss of 20+ points scoring less than 7 points vs. an opponent off a SU win are a perfect 9-0 ATS, home teams off a road SU loss vs. opponents off a road SU win are 33-17 ATS, and home favorites of 2½-4½ points off a road SU loss of 17+ points, scoring less than 8 points in their last game are 24-6 ATS.
We expect a very motivated Redskins team to post a solid "W" here to finish the preseason on a strong note.
PROJECTED FINAL MARGIN: WASHINGTON OVER JACKSONVILLE BY 10 POINTS
KBhoops
5 units Tampa Bay Rays -137
Oscarxena Sports
NY Yankees -1.24 (3 Unit Play)
Although I have not used the Yankees as an official play this week against the Red Sox I have taken them the first two games of this series and have lost miserably. The Yankees will probably not make the playoffs this year but it is hard for me to overlook that this will be the last game at Yankee Stadium between the Red Sox and Yankees and I just believe they will win this game here today. The Yankees will hand the ball to Mike Mussina to try and salvage a game of this series and he has pitched about the same at home as on the road but he has been very tough this year in day starts as he is 7-1 in those games with a 2.86 ERA. The Red Sox will have Jon Lester on the mound who has owned the Yankees so far this year but he is off of a terrible start and his numbers during the day are not as good as he is only 2-2 with a 4.05 ERA. Today's HP umpire is Gary Cederstrom who so far this season is 18-9 for the home team and while Lester has never pitched with Cederstrom Mussina has and he has went 5-3 in those starts. I look for a big outing from Mussina and the Yankees salvage this last game today. Please note that this is an early start.
Miami Ohio -4 +1.03 (3 Unit Play)
Miami Ohio is a MAC team and are laying points to Vanderbilt which is an SEC team. Miami Ohio is favored for a reason in this game and first off they should be very excited and have great fan support this evening as this will be the first time since 1920 in taking on SEC opponent at home. Vanderbilt only has nine returning starters and their offensive line is one of the youngest in the country with no returning starters at all. Vanderbilt has hardly any quality wide receivers for this game as their top WR George Smith is listed as doubtful for this contest and they are taking on a great defense in Miami Ohio. They had the best defense in the MAC last year and return 9 starters from that unit so I just can't see how Vanderbilt is going to put points on the board here. The only fear that I have is that Miami's offense really struggled last year but they have the revenge factor from losing last year in Vanderbilt 24-13 and I think their defense will get them so good field position in this game. Lay it with the Redhawks!
TEDDY COVERS
3* Tennessee Titans -6.0
3* New York Giants -1.5
3* Texas Rangers +165
Bob Balfe
Baylor +11.5 over Wake Forest
Baylor comes into this season with hope as they hired a new coach in Art Briles takes over the controls. Baylor now will learn Briles high powered offense which should help ease the pain of the not so good defense. Wake Forest has their starting QB and top RB back, but are thin at the receiver position. This team has a very good defense and should contend again this year. Baylor should be competitive this season and at home should make this game close. The public is all over Wake Forest, but 11.5 points might just be too much. This Baylor offense is going to turn some heads this season.
Major League Baseball
Cubs -150 over Phillies
Dempster/Hamels
LT Profits
2* Action Atlanta Falcons +2.0
2* Action Miami Dolphins +1.5
2* Action Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.0
2* Blue Jays vs Rays OVER 9.0
2* Action Stanford +3.0
Bob Akmens
4* Indiana Fever -2.0
4* Seattle Storm -4.0
4* Tampa Bay Rays -142
4* Oregon State -3.0
Ben Burns
4* Best Washington Redskins -3.0
4* Best Miami Ohio -3.5
Alex Smart
2* Phoenix Mercury -1.0
3* Tennessee Titans -5.5
2* Vikings vs Cowboys UNDER 35.5
3* Buffalo U -3.0
4* Middle Tenn St +6.5