KBhoops
5 units Tampa Bay Rays -137
NCAAF
5 units Baylor +12
3 units Stanford +3
NFLX
4 units NE +3
2 units KC -4
BEN BURNS
Dallas/Minnesota UNDER
Looking back to last preseason and we find that Week 4 was extremely low-scoring. In fact, it was the lowest-scoring week of any of the past three preseasons. The 16 games averaged just 30 combined points and 11 of them finished with less than 34 points. One of the few games that did eclipse that number was the Dallas/Minnesota clash, which finished with a final score of 24-13. However, a closer look at the game shows that the final score easily could have been lower. Three of the quarters produced just 13 points (7, 3 and 3) but 24 were scored in the second quarter. Seven of those second quarter points came when the Vikings recovered a Dallas fumble inside the Cowboys' 20 yard line. Additionally, the game began by seeing the Vikings return a punt for 95 yards and a touchdown, leading to a quick seven points in what would have otherwise been a scoreless first quarter. Despite last year's final score sneaking above the total, we still got to see that Coach Phillips and Coach Childress handled Week 4 very cautiously and that neither team's offensive stars got much work. Tony Romo, Terrell Owens, Marion Barber III, Terry Glenn and Julius Jones all sat out entirely for Dallas. Vikings' starting quarterback Tarvaris Jackson played just one series while Adrian Peterson got just one carry. Running back Chester Taylor also sat out entirely as did defensive linemen Kevin Williams and Pat Williams, cornerback Antoine Winfield and linebacker E.J. Henderson. With both teams already dealing with a few bangs and bruises, I expect both to again adopt a conservative approach. Note that the Vikings and Cowboys also faced each other in Week 4 of the 2006 preseason. While Parcells was still the head guy in Dallas at that time, Childress was already running the show in Minnesota. Therefore, looking at that result is also somewhat relevant. That 2006 Week 4 game produced just 20 points, finishing with a final score of 10-10. The score was just 7-3 entering the fourth quarter. Looking back to last week and we find that the Cowboys' first team offense produced 20 points in the first half. However, with more backups getting time in the second half, they managed just three second half points. As for the Vikings, playing without starting QB Jackson and without receivers Bernard Berrian and Sidney Rice, they struggled on offense last week. The Minnesota defense was excellent for the second week in a row. After allowing 15 points in Week 2, they held the Steelers to just 12 last week, including just three in the first half. I'm expecting another big defensive effort combined with a heavy dose of 'vanilla' on offense, leading to the final combined score staying beneath the number. *NFLX TOY
REDSKINS
Last week, I successfully played against the Redskins in their loss at Carolina. One of the primary reasons for my play is that I felt that the Panthers were going to be the more motivated team. That was in large part due to the fact that the Panthers were coming off a loss and playing at home, while the Redskins were undefeated. Additionally, Carolina had a couple of extra days of preparation and were supposed to have really game-planned for the Washington game. Anyway, the Panthers routed the Redskins by a score of 47-3 and that result has helped put the Redskins in the exact opposite role. Last week, they were three point road underdogs facing a home team coming off a loss. This week, they're small home favorites and they're facing a Jacksonville team which is coming off a victory and which should have absolutely nothing to prove. Even if the Redskins suffered a 'regular' loss last week, they still might not care too much about their preseason finale. After all, they already had won their first three games. However, the nature or their loss - it was the biggest blowout of the entire preseason - should ensure that they treat this game more seriously - as no coach wants to head into the season on that kind of sour note. This is particularly true of a rookie head coach. Here's what Zorn had to say about how he expected his team to respond: "I will be honest and show the game film to players. They have a lot of pride in what they do. They will look at it and we will all be honest about it. We will re-group--I have no doubt about that. This is a good group. They will take the opportunity to re-establish themselves." Look for Zorn's crew to do just that, bouncing back with a win and cover and heading into the regular season a positive note. *roast
College Football
Buffalo/Utep OVER
The line opened at 64 but is currently in the high 50s. I believe that gives us excellent value for what I expect to be a high-scoring contest. The Miners originally scheduled this game as a tuneup for next week's game against Texas. That was four years ago and a lot can change in that time. In fact, the Bulls are actually favored by a field goal. There are a few reasons why we find Buffalo as the favorite. For starters, the Bulls are playing at home and are coming off their best year in recent memory. They're also signficantly more experienced than the Miners. The bulk of that experience comes on offense, where they bring back a whopping 10 starters. Senior Drew Willy enters his fourth season as a starter and is one of the top quarterbacks in the MAC. His first completion tonight will make him Buffalo's alltime leading passer. Willy has almost all his favorite targets back and four returning starting offensive linemen in front of him. Note that he hasn't thrown an interception in 235 straight pass attempts. What I'm trying to say is that I expect the Bulls' offense to have success against a Miners defense that allowed a whopping 504.7 yards per game and ranked 117th in total defense! While the Miners will likely get better defensively this season, they've got a ton of ground to make up in that area and this experienced offense will be a very tough opening test. Since I believe Buffalo will put up points, that means that in order to keep up, UTEP will need to do the same. I expect the Miners to be able to do just that. The Bulls have given up 37 or more points in three of their last four openers. They also gave up more than 30 points seven times last year. While defense has been an issue, the Miners have typically had no trouble scoring under coach Price. They've also been able to put up points right out of the gate and away from home. Looking at the last three years and we find that the Miners scored 34, 34 and 31 points in their opening road game of the season, two of those games being their first game of the year overall. Look for tonight's game to result in another high-scoring contest with the OVER improving to 8-1 the last nine times that the Miners played a game with an over/under line ranging from -3 to +3. *blue chip
Scott Spreitzer
Thursday Night KNOCKOUT! *62-37, 63% Run!
Oregon State has been a notoriously slow starter over their last four seasons. Mike Riley's Beavers owns a strong, 20-7 SU record from the sixth game on over the past four years. But they're just 8-12 SU in their first five games in those same seasons. In fact, OSU is on a 5-19 ATS slide in road games in the first month of the season. This season promises to be difficult out of the blocks, also. Oregon State returns just three starters on the defensive side of the football. In fact, their entire starting front-seven is GONE from last last year's Emerald Bowl winning squad. It doesn't help that they are playing three of their first five away from home. OSU plays at Stanford in this one, at Penn State next week, and at Utah on October 2nd. In between, they host a winable game against Hawaii, but also face USC. As far as this game is concerend, not only is the defense basically brand new, but the offense is really banged-up. Starting QB Sean Canfield has been suffereing soreness in his throwing shoulder and has spent much of camp on the sideline. He is doubtful for Thursday's opener. The offensive line is in a world of hurt. Two starters and two second-stringers are injured. Three of them will miss the game, while first-team Pac-10 left guard Jeremy Perry is doubtful while recovering from surgery on his left knee. Thanks to the plethora of injuries, that means untested Una Smiley will likely get the starting nod at OLG. The Cardinal may not be bowl-bound this season, but they're making leaps and bounds under the direction of Jim Harbaugh. The squad returns 16 starters to a team that showed a lot of grit in the second half of last season. Stanford beat USC, Arizona, and California, and took TCU to the wire. They lost to OSU, 23-6, in Corvalis last season. But they were within eight at 14-6 at the half, and it must be noted that they were playing their third road game in four weeks, and had just faced USC, TCU, and Arizona. Stanford faces a brutal schedule with road games at Arizona State, TCU, Notre Dame, UCLA, Oregon, and California. But this is a winnable contest, and I truly believe they should be laying points. I'll back Harbaugh's Stanford Cardinal. Obviously, with the line where it is, I believe the Cardinal will win outright, but my play is to take the points for insurance. Stanford is my Thursday night Knockout.
Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections
5000* COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOUCHDOWN WINNER
South Carolina -14
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Florida -120 over ATLANTA
The Marlins are 9-4 in their last 13 during game 3 of a series, while the Braves are 4-17 in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning record and 1-7 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Charlie morton has really been bad this year, with a 3-8 mark and a 6.39 ERA overall, including an 0-6 mark with a 8.18 ERA at home, plus he is 0-1 with a 6.35 ERA in 1 start vs the Fish this year. Anibel has made 2 starts vs the Braves and is 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA, while he has gone 2-2 with a 3.99 ERA overall. Anibel has pitched much better than Morton and the Fish need this one more. This game would be rated at a 4 or 5 unit play, but the Marlins are at the end of a long trip and they have the Mets on deck so they could be a bit flat. At this time of the year teams can't be flat and if the Marlins are to stay in the race then they need to continue winning. The Brave have thrown in the towel and are outmatched in this one.
2 UNIT PLAY
Florida/ Atlanta Over 10
The Over is 19-8-2 in Marlins last 29 road games vs. a team with a losing record and 4-1 in Marlins last 5 games following a win, while the Over is 7-1-1 in Braves last 9 vs. National League East and 16-5-1 in Braves last 22 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, plus the Over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in Atlanta. Charlie Morton has been awful for the Braves, with a 6.39 ERA overall and an 8.18 ERA at home. He also has a 10.24 ERA in his last 3 starts, with those three games averaging 12.3 rpg. Anibel Sanchez has a 5.56 ERA on the road and should be tagged for a few by a Braves team that has averaged 5.5 rpg in their last 4 games.The Marlins put up 5.1 rpg on the road and I easily see them getting 6 or 7 in this one. I see about 13 runs in this one.
Minnesota -139 over OAKLAND
The Twins are 22-9 in their last 31 vs. a team with a losing record and 9-4 in Blackburns last 13 starts with 4 days of rest, while the Athletics are 5-22 in their last 27 games vs. a right-handed starter and 2-9 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The A's offense has really been bad this year, averaging 3.9 rpg overall and 3.6 rpg in their last 7. The must face Nick Blackburn, who is 9-8 overall, with a 3.78 ERA and he has 0ne start vs the A's this year, going 8 innings, allowing 3 ERA in a 3-2 loss. His offense did him in that night but they should have a solid outing for him tonight, as they face Dana Eveland, who comes in struggling with a 1-2 mark and a 9.15 ERA in his last 4 starts. The Twins need this one more and they should get it behind a good offensive performance and another strong outing from Blackburn.
1 UNIT PLAY
Texas/ LA Angels Over 9.5
Seabass
50* UTEP
100* Wake Forest
300* Vandy
The Hitman Guaranteed Selections
5000 LARGE COLLEGE FOOTBALL WINNER
Miami OH -3.5
BIG AL
Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over St. Louis.
Minnesota Twins and Oakland Athletics 'over' the total.
Washington Redskins minus the points over the Jacksonville Jaguars.
ROOT
Chairman- Buffalo
Millionaire- Stanford
Money Maker- Marlins
JEFFERSONSPORTS
MLB EARLY RELEASES FOR THURS
MINN TWINS-147
CHIC CUBS-140
ADDING
Stanford +3
SCOTT SPREITZER
DIVISIONAL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR!
FLA Marlins vs ATL Braves
The Braves will send Charlie Morton to the home hill tonight. That has been a recipe for disaster thus far. Atlanta has lost all three of the righthander's home night starts and he owns a huge, 11.58 ERA in the process. In fact, the Braves have won just one of his seven home starts overall, while Morton is 0-6. He's allowed 30 earned runs and 60 base runners in 33 innings of home action for an 8.18 ERA & 1.82 WHIP. The Marlins will counter with Anibal Sanchez, who has pitched well in four of his five starts. Sanchez also owns a strong 1.80 ERA in two outings against Atlanta. Toss in Florida's 5 1/2 runs per game in road night outings against righties and we have a great spot to jump on the visitor. I'm laying the price with the Marlins on Thursday.
Vegas Sports Experts
Vandy
AntonWins
3 units Oakland +140
Gavazzi
NFL
3% Cincinnati
3% Cleveland
3% Miami
3% Tennessee
KELSO
High Rollers
10 units - Tampa Bay Rays
Best Bets Club
5 units - Marlins
Kelso Best Bets
5 units Wake -11.5
4 units Miami-Ohio -3.5
3 units S Carolina -14