JEFF BENTON
For Tuesday, I’m going to try something a little unique and advise you to make a futures wager in the baseball playoffs by taking the Rockies as a series underdog against the Phillies.
You could say that Colorado’s roller-coaster, 13-inning miracle victory over San Diego on Monday – a victory that earned the franchise its first playoff berth since 1995 – took everything out of the Rockies. I beg to differ. As I mentioned in my analysis on yesterday’s play on the Rockies, they look every bit like a team of destiny.
Colorado enters the playoffs on an amazing 14-1 run, a streak that got the Rockies to the 90-win mark, or one win better than Philadelphia. And while the Phillies do have the home-field advantage for this short series, I highly doubt it’s going to mean all that much, because no ballpark in MLB compares with Coors Field like Citizens Bank Park in Philly
To be honest, these are two teams that absolutely mirror each other: Both are led by powerful offenses that take advantage of their respective tiny home ballparks; both have shaky pitching staffs, particularly the bullpens (likely the result of those tiny home ballparks); and both have little to no postseason experience.
So all things being equal, I’ll side with the team that’s got all the momentum, the team that appears to be on its way to something special. So take the Rockies to beat the Phillies in this best-of-five divisional series.
(based on a 1 to a 10 * Rating)
2* ROCKIES over Phillies in NLDS
Big Al
At 6:35pm, on Thursday, our 5* MLB Playoffs Game of the Year is on the Cleveland Indians over the New York Yankees. Everyone will focus on the high-powered offense of the Yankees and the fact that they went 6-0 against the Tribe during the 2007 regular season (hence New York being the favorite here despite the fact that Cleveland has a better record and home field advantage). But what may not be so obvious is that the Yankees did not face Cleveland's best pitcher, tonight's starter lefthander CC Sabathia. In fact, New York has not faced Sabathia since 2004, despite playing Cleveland plenty of times in that span. One of the key reasons why New York should struggle on Thursday is that it is a terrible 5-14 this season on the road vs. lefty starters (minus 15 games on the money line). New York goes with righthander Chien-Ming Wang who has some pretty impressive numbers of late. But if you look at who he's faced in his last four starts, you'll see that three of those were against Kansas City, Tampa Bay, and Toronto (all great pitching lines for Wang). But the fourth start was against a postseason team in the Boston Red Sox, and Wang got hammered in that one. Also of concern to Yankee backers has to be his numbers on the road this season. Away from the Bronx, Wang sports a 4.91 ERA and 103 hits in only 88 innings. One more thing to keep an eye on is the performance of Mariano Rivera. Although generally solid down the stretch, Rivera's last call to the mound on September 28 at Baltimore (a classic save situation with a 3-run lead) was a disaster. Rivera gave up three hits and three earned runs and blew the save. Was this just a rare blip on Rivera's normally spotless resume, or a sign of things to come? The wrong team is favored here. Take the Indians. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
Michael Cannon Thursday Plays
20 Dime –
YANKEES
Take the Yankees as the small road favorite today in Game 1 of their ALDS over the Indians.
New York will send Chien-Ming Wang to the mound and the right-hander turned in another impressive season, going 19-7 with a 3.70 ERA. He should be able to give manager Joe Torre at least six strong innings tonight, and unlike recent seasons it shouldn’t be an adventure once the bullpen takes over.
That’s because the biggest key in this series, as far as I’m concerned, is the emergence of Yankee setup man Joba Chamberlain.
The rookie right-hander gives the Yankees their most deadly bridge to the closer since Mariano Rivera was setting things up for John Wetteland.
Chamberlain has been virtually unhittable since his promotion to the big leagues, pitching 24 innings and allowing just one earned run on 12 hits, while striking out 34.
His emergence gives the Yankees the opportunity to shorten the game to six innings.
If the Bronx Bombers have the lead after that point, you can chalk up the win.
As far as the potential for the Yankees hitters to come up short, you can forget about that tonight.
That’s because the Indians will start C. C. Sabathia. Although the burly left-hander is a Cy Young candidate, he has struggled big time against New York in his career.
Sabathia is just 1-7 with a 7.13 ERA in eight career starts against the Yankees.
New York as a team dominated the Tribe in the regular season, winning all six games. They batted .348 as a team and outscored Cleveland 49-17. Overall the Yankees have won the last eight meetings between the clubs.
Take the Yankees as the small road chalk as they grab the win in Game 1.
Benjamin lee Eckstein
Ben lee lost with the Fightin Phillies yesterday.
He is 0-1 $150 for the week.
For Thursday Mr Chalk likes the Yankees -$120/Indians.
ASHN FREE PICK (1-1 in October, 47-54 in 2007)
CLEVELAND over NY Yankees (Sabathia over Wang)
PRIORITY SPORTS INFO COMP
SEPT: 27-6
OCT: 0-1
PHILLY -155...mlb
Wunderdog
Game: Colorado at Philadelphia (3:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Colorado +135
This game is hard to figure out. There is tremendous value on the Rockies here. The Rockies will come into this game with a 15-1 record over their last 16 games, and have dominated RHP the entire season. The Rockies are now 21-4 in their last 25 against RHP and it doesn't end there. The Rockies, playing at hitter friendly Coors Field, have the lowest ERA of any National League team since the All-Star break. They start Franklin Morales today, who didn't allow a run in his only start against the Phillies, and is pitching to a 1.23 ERA in his last four outings, and the Rockies have won his last five starts. The Phillies have done the bulk of their good work against RHP, and have struggled to a sub-.500 record against LHP. Kyle Kendrick has had a good season, but has been torched by the Rockies to the tune of 17 hits in nine innings over two starts, where the Rockies combined to score 19 runs. That is the other problem the Phillies face here. The Phillies bullpen has carried gasoline to the mound of late. Kendrick has pitched less than seven innings in five of his 20 starts. The Philly pen has served up 25 runs in his last five starts. Compare that to the Rockies’ pen that has allowed four in Morales last five starts. This line is completely out of whack, so we will ride the value and play the Rockies.
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (1st of the '07 postseason)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Phi Phillies at 3:05 ET.
It's playoff time and handicapping games is a little different. There's a case to be made for both rookie starters on Thursday, as Colorado has gone 6-2 when Morales starts (including 3-0 on the road) while the Phillies are 13-7 in Kendrick's 20 starts, including 9-2 here at home. With a 4-2 win in Game 1, the Rockies have now won 15 of their last 16 games and look like a "team of destiny." However, it's impossible to ignore Philadelphia's great run down the stretch in which the Phillies overtook the Mets. Kendrick was terrible in two starts vs Colorado this year (9 IP / 17 hits / 7 ERs / 7.00 ERA) but how much does that really mean? After all, Jeff Francis owned a 15.12 ERA against the Phillies this season, but outpitched Phillies ace Cole Hamels on Wednesday, allowing four hits with eight strikeouts over six innings! Jimmy Rollins, Case Utley and Ryan Howard combined to go 0-for-11 with eight strikeouts in Game. I'm betting that WON'T happen again and that the Phillies bounce back. I've backed Kendrick a number of times this year with great success and I'll ride him again in this one. Las Vegas Insider on the Phi Phillies.
Good Luck...larry
Larry Ness' 20* ALDS Game of the Year (won 18 of 26 weeks / 261-150 in the regular season!)
My 20* play is on the Cle Indians at 6:35 ET.
The Yankees won all six meetings with the Indians during the regular season. New York batted .348 and outscored Cleveland 49-17 to sweep the Indians at home in April and in Cleveland in August. Cleveland hit just .228 while posting an 8.19 ERA in this season's six losses to New York. Cleveland's starter in Game 1 of this series is CC Sabathia, who is 1-7 with a 7.13 ERA in eight career starts against the Yankees. I guess that means it's the Yankees in Game 1? Not so fast. The Indians are 31-13 since the most recent sweep at the hands of the Yankees and Sabathia hasn't met the Yankees since '04 (a lifetime ago!). He was 19-7 with a 3.21 ERA in '07 (team was 23-11) and set career highs for wins, strikeouts (209) and innings (241.0). He's 5-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his last six starts (team was 6-0) and 11-4 at Jacobs Field (team was 14-5). Better yet, the Yankees were just terrible vs left-handers away from the Bronx this year, going 5-14 (minus-$1,515)! Wang goes for the Yanks and he also went 19-7 this year (3.70 ERA), while matching his win total from last season. It's hard to argue against Wang, as New York is 44-20 in his starts the last two years but getting Sabathia at home (at this price) is to good to pass up! ALDS Game of the Year 20* Cle Indians.
Good Luck...Larry
Brandon.lang
10 DIME
New York Yankees - Specify Pitchers - Wang vs Sabathia
Freebie - Chicago Cubs
Corleone Picks for Thursday
Colorado first 5 inn (+120)
8-3 this week with foots & Bases
David Page
PREMIUM AND CONFIRMED
Thu, October 4th 2007 03:05:00 PM
MLB
Philadelphia Phillies
Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies +133
Game Pitchers Kyle Kendrick -vs- Franklin Morales
Thu, October 4th 2007 03:05:00 PM
MLB
Philadelphia Phillies
Colorado Rockies
Over 10 (-103)
Game Pitchers Kyle Kendrick -vs- Franklin Morales
Thu, October 4th 2007 10:05:00 PM
MLB
Arizona Diamondbacks
Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs -129
Game Pitchers Doug Davis -vs- Ted Lilly
Players Advantage
Baseball Picks
10/4/2007
3:00:00 PM PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (Kendrick)-155
over Colorado Rockies (Morales)
Free Pick on Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -155 vs Colorado - Kendrick vs Morales @ 3:05 ET - The Phillies potent bats were surprisingly shut down in yesterday's series opener. Ultimately that was the difference in the game as Cole Hamels had one poor inning but, other than that, the southpaw pitched very well. Look for Kyle Kendrick to continue doing what he's done all season and, that is, baffle the opposition by keeping the hitters off-balance. Kendrick does not have overpowering stuff by any stretch of the imagination but he does know how to get the job done time and time again. With a workmanlike effort from Kendrick and some much better plate prodcution from the Phillies sticks they will even this series up at a game apiece. Play Philadelphia on the money line as your Free Pick for Thursday.
Joe Wiz's Daily Free Pick
Under 8 1/2 runs bet. the Cubs and Arizona.
Back Colorado Rockies (+143) at Philadelphia Phillies
Marc Lawrence playbook.com
The Rockies aren't red hot, they're white hot! Back Colorado in this one with rookie Franklin Morales on the mound in Game 2 of their NLDS in Philadelphia.
Okay, we were wrong in assuming the white-hot Rockies would let down in the series opener yesterday.
Today they send Franklin Morales to the hill knowing he is 4-1 away with a 2.05 ERA in his team starts. This will be just the ninth start in Morales' young career, but he is no stranger to the Phillies lineup and the mound in Philadelphia as he earned his first big league win in this park about three weeks ago.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia is winless (0-2) in Kyle Kendrick's two career starts against Colorado, with the Phils rookie posting a 7.00 ERA in those two outings. Look for the Rockies win train to stay on track here this afternoon.
Free Pick: Rockies +143
LT Profits Sports Group
The Phillies have been terrible vs. left-handed pitching lately, and that does not expect to change vs. the hot Morales. Take the Rockies as a nice underdog again.
This contest between the Colorado Rockies and Philadelphia Phillies falls under Dizzy Dean’s favorite old adage, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it!”
The Rockies have now won 15 of their last 16 games including postseason, and they are 22-7 in their last 29 games. Yet, they continue to be installed as nice-sized underdogs. They came through for us in this role yesterday, and we are coming right back with them at an even better price today.
Young southpaw Franklin Morales turned out to be somewhat of a godsend for Colorado, posting a 3.43 ERA and a very good 1.22 WHIP in eight starts, with the Rockies going 6-2 in those games. Also, everyone saw the difficulties that the Phillies have with left-handed pitching yesterday, and they are now batting a pathetic .178 vs. left-handers over the last 10 games.
Now don’t get us wrong, we are also quite high on Philadelphia right-hander Kyle Kendrick. However, he is simply running into a team of destiny here, and he did not fare that well in two starts vs. the Rockies during the regular season, surrendering seven earned runs on 17 hits in just nine innings.
We look for Morales to shut the Phillies down again today, and for the Rockies to take a stranglehold of this series by going up 2-0 on the road.
Free Pick: Rockies +145