SPORTS ADVISORS
San Diego (6-3) at N.Y. Mets (4-4)
The Mets send right-hander John Maine (0-0, 3.60 ERA) to the Citi Field mound to wrap up their home-opening three-game series against the Padres, who will start ace right-hander Jake Peavy (1-1, 3.52).
After taking Tuesday off following the Padres’ 6-5 win Monday night, New York bounced back with a 7-2 victory Wednesday, scoring five runs in its final two at-bats to post its first victory at Citi Field and end San Diego’s five-game winning streak. The Mets are on a 10-2 run against teams from the N.L. West, and they’ve won nine of their last 10 Thursday contests. The Padres are still on rolls of 5-1 overall and 4-1 against the N.L. East, but they also carry lengthy negative streaks of 17-38 on the road against right-handed starters and 16-37 in the third game of a series.
San Diego, which won five of seven games last year in this rivalry, is now 8-3 in the last 11 meetings, though New York has gone 10-4 in the last 14 clashes in the Big Apple.
Maine got a no-decision in his first outing of the year, a 5-4 loss at Florida in which he allowed two runs on two hits (both solo homers), with one walk and five strikeouts in five innings. He went 10-8 last year with a 4.18 ERA in 25 starts, including 5-2 with a 4.76 ERA in 11 home outings, though he missed the final five weeks of the season with a shoulder injury.
Maine has a pair of no-decisions in his two career starts against the Padres, posting an inflated 5.40 ERA, with both appearances coming in the 2007 season. The Mets have gone 9-4 in Maine’s last 13 home starts, 6-1 in his last seven Game 3 outings and 4-1 with the righty throwing on five days of rest.
Peavy has gone deep into both his starts this year, logging seven innings in a 4-1 home loss to the Dodgers on Opening Day, then going 8 1/3 innings in a 6-3 home win over the Giants on Saturday. In the latter outing, he allowed three runs on seven hits and no walks, with 10 strikeouts, giving him 18 Ks for the season in 15 1/3 innings. Peavy was a middling 10-11 last year despite a 2.85 ERA, going 5-6 with a 4.28 ERA on the highway.
Peavy is 4-2 with a 3.32 ERA in nine career starts against the Mets, though like Maine, he hasn’t faced New York since 2007. The Pads are 7-3 in Peavy’s last 10 Thursday starts, but with their ace on the hill, they are also on slides of 2-5 on the road and 6-13 against the N.L. East.
The over is on a bundle of runs for New York, including 17-9-1 at home, 10-3-3 with Maine starting, 7-0-1 behind Maine at home and 19-7-1 in Thursday games. The over for the Padres is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 on the highway and 13-5-1 in Peavy’s last 19 road starts. Finally, in this rivalry, the “over” is on stretches of 4-1 overall, 7-2 in New York and 4-1 with Peavy facing the Mets.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (3-5) at Seattle (7-2)
The Mariners, off to a strong start after losing a major league-worst 101 games last year, send rookie Chris Jakubauskas (1-0, 4.50 ERA) to the Safeco Field mound against fellow lefty Joe Saunders (1-1, 2.63) and the Angels to cap a three-game series.
On the strength of three home runs, including one from Ken Griffey Jr. and a grand slam from Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle powered its way to a sixth consecutive victory with an 11-3 rout of the Angels. The Mariners have surrendered a total of just 14 runs during their six-game streak, and they’ve now held fie of their first nine foes to three runs or fewer. Dating to last season, Seattle has won five straight home games, seven in a row against the A.L. West, five straight against lefty starters and fie straight as an underdog.
Los Angeles is just 2-6 in its last eight division contests and 1-5 in its last six versus winning teams, but the Halos have won eight of their last 12 on the highway. Also, despite dropping the first two games of this series, the Angels are still 35-17 in the last 52 meetings with the M’s, including 7-3 in the last 10 battles in Seattle.
Jakubauskas, who spent the last four years in independent baseball leagues, earned a roster spot with a stellar spring and he’s started his big-league career with two relief appearances, pitching two innings each at Minnesota on April 8 and at Oakland on Friday. The 6-foot-2 right-hander allowed a total of two runs on three hits in those four innings.
Saunders came up short at home Saturday against the Red Sox, taking the loss in a 5-4 setback in which he allowed four runs on seven hits and three walks in seven innings, as the Angels ended a seven-game winning streak with the lefty on the hill. Saunders was a solid 17-7 with a 3.41 ERA in 31 starts last year, including 10-3 with a sparkling 2.55 ERA in 15 road efforts.
Saunders is 4-1 with a 4.61 ERA in seven career starts against the Mariners, including 3-0 with a 3.29 ERA in four outings last year, with two of the wins coming at Seattle. The Angels are on numerous runs when Saunders takes the ball, including 39-16 overall, 19-7 on the highway, 21-7 against winning teams, 4-0 in division play and 5-1 with the southpaw favored.
The over for Seattle is on stretches of 8-3 in the A.L. West, 6-2 at home and 6-2 against lefty starters, and the over for Los Angeles is on streaks of 5-1-1 overall and 8-3 in division games. Also, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in 11 of the last 14 clashes in Seattle.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS and OVER
VEGAS EXPERTS
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
The Giants finish up their 3-game series tonight with Zito facing Stults. The Dodgers are listed as huge $1.60 favorites and we think that Ziot and the Giants are worth a look. Zito has pitched very well here in LA, including an outstanding 7 2/3 innings of work allowing only one earned run at the end of last season. Meanwhile, Stults hasn’t pitched very well against these Giants. In his lone start last season he went only four innings surrendering 7 hits and two walks. Also, over the past ten units Zito is 13-9 (plus 14 units) as an underdog of $1.50 or more. Play on SF!
Play on: San Francisco
Cajun Sports
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto was able to bounce back from a disappointing 3 to 2 loss at the hands of the Twins on Tuesday night winning 12 to 2 on Wednesday. Toronto with that win has a 2-1 series lead with the fourth and final game set for 8:10PM EST tonight. Toronto was perfect last season versus Minnesota posting a 6-0 record for a profit of +610. The Blue Jays will send their ace right-hander Roy Halladay to the bump with his 2-0 record, 3.86 ERA and a WHIP of 1.00. The Twins will hang their hopes on left-hander Francisco Liriano who is 0-2 with an ERA of 6.94 and a WHIP of 1.20. Liriano is 0-1 at home with an ERA of 5.14, in that start at home he gave up four runs on four hits, three strikeouts and two homeruns. The Blue Jays are 5-1 their last six when facing left-handers, 28-3 their last 31 versus American League Central opponents including 7-3 this season. Halladay was 2-0 last season at Minnesota with an ERA of 5.93 and he is 8-1 overall in his career versus the Twins with an ERA of 2.71. The Blue Jays are 41-11 when Halladay takes the bump on field turf and 57-19 when he faces a team with a losing record including 28-11 on the road his last 39. The TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Blue Jays win by 2.5 runs in tonight’s game with Halladay and Liriano on the hill. Finally the Math Model Index has the Blue Jays with a 4.97 to 3.22 advantage so lay the chalk with the visitor as Halladay and the Jays get another win over the Minnesota Twins on Thursday night.
Graded Selection: 2* Toronto Blue Jays 5 Minnesota Twins 2
Craig Trapp
Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Chicago White Sox
Our first MLB free play in American League goes today. Early season in the AL the favorites have struggled somewhat. Today's free play will be a rematch of the playoff match up from 2008 between the White Sox and the Rays. Lets look at records and trends for today's free play!
Records:
White Sox 4-4 Danks 0-0 (0.00 ERA)
Rays 4-5 Nieman 0-1 (10.13 ERA)
Trends:
-White Sox are 7-2 in their last 9 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150.
-Rays are 9-1 in their last 10 games as a home underdog.
-White Sox are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings.
-White Sox are 0-5 in the last 5 meetings in Tampa Bay.
Last year in the playoffs the Rays dominated the White Sox winning 3-1 in the best of five series. But the one win was Left-hander Danks who pitched well over 6 2-3 innings to help the White Sox to a 5-3 win over the Rays in Game 3 of the ALDS. Danks is 3-1 with a 2.96 ERA in the regular season against the Rays. On the other hand Nieman and rest of the bullpen for the Rays have really struggled all with double digit ERA's. Lets take the better pitcher and the hotter hitters CHW. SCORE CHW 6 - TB 2
Alex Smart
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers Under 7.5
Matt Cain the San Francisco Giants starter tonight, is coming off a positive opening day assignment , as is evident by his team 7-1 victory versus the Milwaukee Brewers. The hard throwing righty hurler despite of a 0-6 record in 11 career starts against the Dodgers, has pitched admirably against them. He was 0-3 last season despite of posting a 2.79 ERA in 6 starts, and another top notch pitching performance I'm betting is on tonights agenda. His final two starts of the year against the Dodgers he pitched 13 innings and allowed two earned runs but came away with a no-decision and a loss. In three starts at Dodger Stadium, Cain allowed two runs in 18 2-3 innings, but did not get a single run of support. He received the second lowest run support in baseball last season (3.14 RPG).Meanwhile, the LA Dodgers will fire back, with a young stud hurler of their own, Clayton Kershaw, who allowed one run on two hits, but walked four while striking out six in his debut effort registering a 1.83 ERA. He will face a struggling Giants offense that is batting just .211 (27-for-128) scoring just eight runs during their current four game losing run.
Final notes & Key Trends: Under is 6-1 in Cains last 7 starts as a road underdog. Under is 4-1 in Kershaws last 5 starts overall.
Play Under
Marc Lawrence
Play On: L.A. Angels w/Saunders
The Angels send Joe Saunders to the hill when they take on the Mariners in Seattle in the finale of this 3-game series tonight. That's good news for the Halos considering Saunders' sparkling 4-0 record with a 3.29 ERA in his last 4 team starts against the M's. Look for Saunders to improve to 10-2 in his career team starts during the month of April here this evening.
James Patrick
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings
The defending Stanley Cup Champions open their playoff post season with a home game against the Columbus Blue Jackets. The Blue Jackets are 14-36-1 the past 51 meetings with Detroit and just 6-19 in Hockey Town. James Patrick Sports Blue Line complimentary winning selection in the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs is Detroit Red Wings.
DAVE COKIN
MONTREAL CANADIENS VS BOSTON BRUINS
Take: BOSTON BRUINS
The Canadiens-Bruins rivalry remains one of the best in any sport, and they had an old school donnybrook in their final regular season hookup last week. I see that paving the way for a big Boston effort in Game One. This is a #1 vs. #8 series, but I don't see any chance the Bruins come in less than fully focused off last week's brawl. Boston won all five regular season meetings, and I see them being capable of sending a strong message tonight. I don't normally advocate laying the puck line in the playoffs as there are so many close games, but I'll take the plus money and go that route with Boston tonight.
Scott Spreitzer
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Under
Barry Zito has truly struggled since signing with SFO. But he has pitched well away from home for the most part. Zito came into this season with a decent 3.65 ERA in his last 34 evening road starts. One of the joints he's cleaned-up at is Dodger Stadium where the lefty owns a 2.73 ERA in his last four outings. The Dodgers struggled last season in home night games against southpaws, scoring just 4 rpg. Meanwhile, SFO can't hit anything right now. Last night's four runs constitutes an outburst. They'll face lefty Eric Stults tonight, which means run production should once again hit the skids. The Giants scored an average of just 3.4 rpg in 16 road night tilts against southpaws a season ago. After a nine-run night on Wednesday, I expect a low-scoring pitcher's dual on Thursday. I'm playing the Under on Thursday night.
Jimmy The Moose
Columbus Blue Jackets at Detroit Red Wings
Prediction: Columbus Blue Jackets
Tonight's game will be the Blue Jackets first ever playoff game. Columbus will be taking on the defending Stanley Cup Champion Detroit Red Wings but the Blue Jackets have held their own vs. Detroit. Columbus has won 3 of the last 4 meetings with Detroit and one of those wins was a 8-2 blowout at Joe Louis Arena. Detroit comes into this one having lost 7 of their last 10 games. The Red Wings goaltending has been an issue all season and it will bite them in this one. Play on the Columbus Blue Jackets +.
Big Al Mcmordie
Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Under
At 7:05pm our member selection is on the Chicago White Sox and Tampa Bay Rays 'under' the total. Tampa Bay #5 starter, righthander Jeff Niemann (better known as the placeholder for David Price) is a much better pitcher than he showed in his debut against the Orioles in Baltimore on April 11. The O's are hitting everyone very well right now, and actually despite a disastrous first inning, Niemann settled down nicely in that game and allowed just one more run in the following 4+ innings. Niemann showed a lot of strikeout numbers in the minors, fanning 151 batters in 164 innings at AAA Durham in 2007 and 2008 combined. He should be a serviceable replacement until phenom Price makes his much-anticipated appearance in the rotation later this year. Niemann will no doubt look forward to the Chicago bats in this game compared to those that he saw in Baltimore as the Sox are batting .259 as a team vs. the red hot Orioles at .295. Take the 'under'.
JIM FEIST
HOUSTON ASTROS / PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Take OVER
A pair of washed up pitchers on the mound should help the offenses. Houston's Russ Ortiz should have retired 5 years ago, it's amazing he's still in the big leagues. So far in 2009: 6.75 ERA, 4 walks and 5 hits allowed in 4 innings. Same old Russ! Pittsburgh's Adam LaRoche and Freddy Sanchez are hitting in April. In a 7-0 victory this week, Sanchez had three doubles, two of them starting run-scoring innings, and the normally slow-starting LaRoche had three hits as the Pirates won their home opener for the first time since 2004. Pitt started 4-1 over the total. Starter Jeff Karstens has marginal stuff. All in all, look for plenty of runs in this one. Play the Astros/Pirates over the total.
Jeff Benton
San Diego’s surprising five-game winning streak came to a screeching halt Wednesday when it lost 7-2 in New York. But don’t let the score deceive you – that was a 2-1 game in the bottom of the seventh inning before the wheels came off for the Padres, thanks in large part to an error by the catcher that led to two runs.
Tonight, the Friars send ace Jake Peavy to the hill, and all Peavy has done in his first two starts is toss 15 1/3 innings while giving up just six earned runs on 14 hits and two walks while striking out 18. To simplify it, Peavy has more strikeouts (18) than baserunners allowed (16) in 15 1/3 innings of work.
Peavy also has had his share of success against the Mets, took, going 4-2 with a 3.32 ERA. And if you take one piss-poor performance where he allowed seven runs in five innings of a 12-0 loss in 2005, that ERA would drop almost a full run to 2.42.
Finally, despite losing last night, the Padres are still 8-3 in the last 11 meetings with the Mets. And since I’m not sold on New York starter John Maine, who is coming back from shoulder surgery and has a 5.40 ERA in two career starts against San Diego, I have no problem taking a shot with a pitcher as good as Peavy at a nice plus price.
3♦ SAN DIEGO
Matt Rivers
For Thursday take the money with Cliff Lee and the Indians.
Obviously Lee has not been close to that unreal Cy Young form from last season but I am not a true believer in these Yankees right now and at this price why not back the visitors!?!?!?
CC Sabathia certainly will be more than jacked up to open the new Yankee Stadium and beat his former team in these Indians but at this price I will take my chances on the dog for sure. The big lefty was hit very hard by the Orioles in the season opener and has the potential to get hit here as well by what is still a very good lineup led by Sizemore, DeRosa, Hafner and Martinez.
Without Arod the Yankees really just do not scare me all that much. Mark Teixeira is awesome and there are a few others like Jeter and Cano and Posada that have potential for sure but this team is still not the Yankees from seasons' past and are therefore laying a bit much here partly on reputation.
At some point Lee will rebound and show us some of the form from 2008. This may not be an easy spot or that spot for it to happen but Eric Wedge' boys, despite the very slow start to the season, are more than capable in this situation to rise up and take care of business.
Sports Gambling Hotline
Philadelphia -135 at WASHINGTON
Wednesday winner on the New York Yankees, as we are now on an 11-6 comp play run the last 17 days!
It seems the only thing that can save the winless Nationals these days is rain, as yesterday's rain out only postponed the inevitable...another Washington loss!
Take the Phillies, as Joe Blanton rights his ship after a horrible first start. Blanton was tagged for 7 runs in just 4 innings of work, but escaped with a no decision against the Braves his last time out.
Philadelphia has owned Washington of late, as the Phils have gone 6-3 the last 2 season's in DC, and are 26-12 overall against the Nationals since the 2007 season.
Shairon Martis is picking up where he left off last season, as the righty went 1-3 in limited action for the Nats last season, with an almost 6 ERA, as he allowed 3 runs in just 3 innings of work against Atlanta in a no decision.
Look for the Phillies to pepper Mathis, and the rest of the Washington staff, as they keep the Nationals winless for the year.
1♦ PHILADELPHIA