Tony Weston
Today's Selection
Of course we come through again last night as the Diamondbacks take care of business and deliver a solid Comp Play winner for us.
We’re coming through again today as we’re taking the Rays on the road at the Rockies.
In the first two games of this series these two have split with Colorado just edging Tampa last night.
Despite that loss last night, the Rays have still won 6 of their last 7 games and now battle the Rockies’ Ubaldo Jimenez, who has had his share of struggles lately.
Over his last 10 starts the Rockies only have 4 wins and are only 2-4 his last 6 starts.
Today, Jimenez will struggle again as the Rays get over easily in this one. Take Tampa on the road to win this series.
3♦ RAYS
JIM FEIST
FLORIDA MARLINS VS BOSTON RED SOX
Take: FLORIDA MARLINS.
Ricky Nolasco is one of several talented young arms for the Marlins. He has 50 strikeouts in 56 innings on the year, and in his last three starts he has 15 Ks in 15 innings with only 5 walks. Boston has never faced him, either. Florida has a winning road record and just had a 3-game sweep at Toronto. Jon Lester is 5-5 on the season with a 4.76 ERA, so it's still not clear whether he has turned a corner or not. Excellent value with the talented young road team. Play the Marlins.
Brandon Fade
Florida Marlins @ Boston Red Sox
Ricky Nolasco has been a solid starter for the Marlins and will be looking to notch them a win in Fenway tonight as a big road dog. Nolasco has 50 strikeouts in 56 innings thrown this year and over his last three starts has only walked 5 batters while striking out 15 over a span of 15 innings. The Marlins are looking to avoid a fourth road sweep defeat this season after sweeping their three game set with the Toronto Blue Jays. The Red Sox will be getting their first look at Nolasco and if he has good command he may be able to hold the Red Sox in check. Likewise the Marlins get the mediocre Jon Lester who is sporting a 4.76 ERA and may be the opponent the Marlins need to wake up their bats which have been silenced the first two games of this series. Take the heavy road dog to put up numbers behind a solid pitching performance tonight in what should be a Marlins win.
Florida Marlins (+)
DAVE COKIN
OAKLAND ATHLETICS / LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Take LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Rookie Vin Mazzaro is off to a dynamite start for the A's. But he's also been a bit fortunate. All 14 of the hits off Mazzaro have been singles, which means that's he's been largely able to avoid the high stress situations that really test a rookie's mettle. Mazzaro draws a tough foe tonight, as the Dodgers have been outstanding at home. Oakland doesn't exactly crush lefties, so this could be a good night for LA's Randy Wolf. I'm not a big fan of laying substantial prices, so this isn't a strong opinion, but the Dodgers seem like the right side to me.
Vernon Croy
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and it would be a premium play for me but it is over my personal limit of -150. The Phillies have the superior pitcher on the mound here Thursday afternoon with Joe Blanton (4-3, 5.17 ERA) who is 2-0 with an ERA of just 2.00 over his last 4 starts. The Jays send Brad Mills to the mound who will make his major league debut in a hitter's ball park against a very potent Phillies line-up that has lot's of power. Mills is 1-8 with a 4.48 ERA over 13 starts with Triple-A Las Vegas and I do not see his Major League debut lasting long in Philadelphia today. The Jays are just 1-7 in their last 8 games in game 3 of a series and they are just 0-5 in their last 5 interleague games when facing a right hand starter. The Phillies are 9-1 in Blanton's last 10 starts after a team loss in their previous game and the Phillies are 20-8 in their last 28 games against a lefty starter. Take the Philadelphia Phillies to avoid the sweep at home as my MLB Free Play for Thursday afternoon.
LT Profits
Seattle Mariners @ San Diego Padres
Now we realize that Petco Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball, but this posted total for this matinee between the Seattle Mariners and the San Diego Padres still seems low to us given this pitching matchup.
Young Joshua Geer is taking the stat for the Padres, and he has been awful thus far this year. Geer is 1-2 with a poor 6.14 ERA in nine starts, and pitching in this spacious stadium has not helped him much as he still has a 5.34 ERA at home. Moreover, he has just one Quality Start in his last six starts, posting a disgusting 7.44 ERA over those outings.
His opponent is Brandon Morrow, who is a reliever by trade and is making just his second start of the year. Morrow went only three innings in his first start of the year last Saturday, and he is 0-3 with a 5.91 ERA and a horrible 1.92 WHIP overall this season including his 18.1 innings of work out of the bullpen.
Sure, the Under is 23-6-2 in the last 31 Mariners games overall, but most of those games had much higher posted totals than the eight hung up here. Given the poor form of Geer and the lack of stamina for Morrow, we do see at least nine runs being scored in this contest.
Pick: Mariners/Padres Over 8
Tommy Gill
Mets -110 for 2 units
Not sure if this game is going to go off today but I believe we have a good spot for the Mets for sure today. Mets are a team I try to stay away from as much as possible because they are a hard team to read but I believe we are getting some good line value today with the pitching matchup of Hernandez (5-1 4.33 ERA) vs Berken (1-3 7.32 ERA). Berken has been terrible his last 2 starts giving up 13 runs in 7.2 innings pitched against Oakland and Atlanta whom are not great hitting teams. In Hernandez last 10 games this season he has had 7 quality starts with his last game not doing well against the NYY which no one expected him too in that ball park.
Jr Tips
OAKLAND vs. LA DODGERS
Vin Mazzaro (2-1, 1.37 ERA) will make his fourth career start and help the visiting A's win their three-game series over the Los Angeles Dodgers in tonight's finale. Oakland snapped a four-game slide by holding on for a 5-4 win last night. The A's who have the worst batting average in the AL(235), had nine hits and scored more than four runs for just the second time in that 10-games. Oakland (28-36) will have Mazzaro who didn't allow a run over his first 17 2-3 innings go againstthe Dodgers Randy Wolf who after allowing 11 runs in his previous two outings, Wolf (3-2, 3.41) had yielded two hits in five scoreless innings until a light failure caused a one-hour, 41-minute delay and the Dodgers (43-23) won 3-1 in that game. Both these teams have struggled at the plate as Oakland finally scored over 3 runs last night. These two pitchers have been stellar of late as the first team to get 3 runs will win.
TAKE UNDER 7 1/2 RUNS
Ben Burns
Florida Marlins @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Under 9.5
After these teams combined for 10 runs in Tuesday's series opener, yesterday's game finished with just seven runs. This evening's finale has the makings of another relatively low-scoring affair.
Nolasco's overall numbers are still pretty ugly. However, he seems to be turning it around as he's off back to back quality starts. He'll have the advantage of starting against Boston for the first time.
Lester, meanwhile, has an outstanding 1.23 ERA and 0.626 WHIP over his last three starts. That's downright domination! During that stretch, he's allowed a mere seven hits, none of them home runs, through 22 innings. He's also recorded a very impressive 34 K's in those 22 innings. Lester's lone start vs. Florida came back on 7/2/2006 and finished with a score of 4-3.
The Florida bullpen has been excellent on the road and the Red Sox relievers have been terrific, regardless of venue. Consider the Under
Nick Parsons
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals +120
Luke Hochevar (2-2, 5.60 ERA) of the Royals, selected first overall in the 2006 draft, has won both starts since being recalled from Triple-A Omaha on June 6, and recorded his first career complete game Friday against visiting Cincinnati. The right-hander allowed three hits and walked one while tossing just 80 pitches in the 4-1 win. Arizona is 1-2 as a road favorite of -125 to -150 while the Royals are 3-2 as a home dog of +100 to +125! Good value here; play on the ROYALS!
Mr A
Minnesota Twins -150
Los Angeles Dodgers -140
MLB Computer Picks
Seattle Mariners -105
Boston Red Sox -240 *
Texas Rangers -165
Best Bet *
VEGAS EXPERTS
Houston Astros at Texas Rangers
Boston and Florida pushed on last night’s contest as they combined for 10 runs. Before that, the Marlins have gone OVER the total in 16 of 19 interleague games, including all six this season. Over the past two seasons Florida is 24-12 OVER in the month of June. Boston has gone OVER in nine of their 10 Wednesday games this season. Red Sox starter Brad Penny has gone OVER in all seven starts against the NL East over the past three seasons. Go with the OVER
Play on: OVER
Tom Freese
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Under
Los Angeles is 11-4 UNDER their last 15 Interleague games and they are 8-3 UNDER their last 11 games vs. righty starters. The Dodgers are 4-0 UNDER in Game 3 of a series. Oakland is 26-12-1 UNDER on the road vs. lefty starters and they are 7-3-1 UNDER their last 11 games as underdogs. The Athletics are 8-3 UNDER after scoring 5 or more runs in their last game. PLAY ON 'UNDER' (Wolf vs. Mazzaro)
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Rays/Rockies UNDER 9
Odds makers are begging for action on the Over with this number, with these two good hitting clubs going head-to-head, but we won't fall into the trap. The Under is 26-7-2 in the Rockies last 35 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record, 7-2 in their last 9 interleague games overall, and 12-4 in their last 16 interleague home games. The Under is also 4-1 in Jimenez's last 5 interleague starts. On the other side of the equation, the Under is 5-1 in the Rays last 6 games following a loss, 9-2-1 in their last 12 vs. a team with a losing record, and 5-0 in Garza's last 5 road starts. Smart money goes on the Under.
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
280 - 182 run 60 % 23-11 run here 😮
Thurs TEXAS Rangers
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