SPORTS ADVISORS
Philadelphia (37-32) at Tampa Bay (38-35)
Last year’s World Series participants wrap up a three-game series at Tropicana Field, with the Rays trotting out right-hander Andy Sonnanstine (5-7, 6.60 ERA) opposite Phillies rookie Antonio Bastardo (2-2, 5.21).
Tampa Bay bounced back from Tuesday’s 10-1 shellacking to the Phillies and delivered their own beat-down Wednesday, rolling to a 7-1 victory. The Rays have won nine of their last 13 overall and are on further rolls of 80-33 at the Trop, 45-17 when hosting teams with a winning record, 5-1 in interleague home games and 6-2 against the N.L. East.
Philadelphia, which entered this series coming off a dismal 1-8 homestand, still have baseball’s best road mark at 24-10, and they’re 38-17 in their last 55 roadies dating to last season. However, they’re now on a 10-20 nosedive in interleague road contests and they’ve dropped seven of their last eight in interleague play.
Philadelphia took out Tampa Bay in five games in last year’s Fall Classic, with the home team going 4-1, and the Phils have won four of the last five in this rivalry. These squads have met 14 times since 2000, and the host has gone 10-4, with the Rays winning six of their last eight clashes at the Trop.
The Rays have alternated wins and losses in Sonnanstine’s last six starts, with the righty going 3-3 in that stretch. Last Friday against the Mets, he allowed four runs on seven hits and two walks in a 5-3 road loss. Sonnanstine hasn’t been beaten at home this year, going 4-0 with a 4.15 ERA in five starts.
Tampa is 1-5 in Sonnanstine’s last six starts against winning teams, but the Rays are on runs behind Sonnanstine of 4-0 at home, 9-2 against winning teams at the Trop and 7-2 in interleague play. Sonnanstine lost his lone career start against Philly in Game 4 of last year’s World Series, a 10-2 road blasting as he allowed five runs (three earned) on six hits and three walks in just four innings.
Bastardo has taken the loss in his last two starts after winning his first two big-league contests. Last Friday against Baltimore, he gave up four runs on five hits with no walks and five strikeouts in a 7-2 home loss. Six days earlier at home against Boston, he threw just one inning, allowing five runs (four earned) on three hits and three walks in an 11-6 defeat. Bastardo is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his two road outings, and this will be his first game against the Rays.
The under for Tampa Bay is on streaks of 5-2 overall (all in interleague play), 9-4-1 at home, 25-10-1 in interleague home games, 5-0 with Sonnanstine facing a winning team and 5-2 behind the righty at home. Likewise, Philadelphia is riding “under” streaks of 18-9-1 in interleague play, 7-1 in A.L. ballparks and 6-2-1 on artificial turf, though the over has hit in four of the Phils’ last six road games.
Finally, the under is 5-2-1 in the last eight head-to-head meetings in Tampa Bay.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY and UNDER
N.Y. Yankees (39-32) at Atlanta (34-37)
The Yankees finally got back in the win column last night in Atlanta and now send left-hander Andy Pettitte (7-3, 4.26 ERA) to the mound at Turner Field to wrap up a three-game series with the Braves, who will counter with right-hander Derek Lowe (7-5, 4.09).
After getting shut out 4-0 in the series opener Tuesday, New York finally busted out the bats en route to an 8-4 victory Wednesday to halt a three-game losing skid. The Yankees remain just 5-9 in their last 14 games, following a 19-6 surge that had them atop the A.L. East. Joe Girardi’s squad is on further skids of 2-6 on the road and 1-4 against right-handed starters.
Atlanta is on upticks of 5-3 at Turner and 13-7 against winning teams, and in interleague play, the Braves are on rolls of 6-1 at home and 8-4 against winning teams. However, they’ve gone just 3-9 in their last 12 interleague home games against lefties.
After winning four in a row behind Pettitte, New York has split his last four starts. Most recently, Pettitte shut down host Florida last Friday in a 5-1 victory, allowing one run on three hits in seven innings with seven strikeouts against no walks. The southpaw is 4-1 with a solid 2.35 ERA in six road starts this season, and he’s 5-1 with a 3.13 ERA in nine career starts against Atlanta.
With Pettitte on the hill, the Yankees are on upswings of 6-2 overall, 5-1 on the road, 5-1 in interleague play, 17-6 against the N.L. East and a lengthy 67-28 against opponents with a losing record.
Atlanta has dropped two in a row and four of five backing Lowe, including Saturday’s 3-0 loss at Boston, in which he allowed all three runs on seven hits and a walk in 6 1/3 innings. Prior to that, he went just 2 1/3 innings in an 11-2 loss at Baltimore, yielding a season-high seven runs on eight hits and three walks.
Lowe is 3-1 with a 3.27 ERA in seven home starts this season, but he’s 8-10 with an inflated 6.07 ERA in 39 career appearances (15 starts) against the Yankees. On the positive side, the Braves are 4-1 in Lowe’s last five starts against winning teams.
The under is on a bundle of runs for New York, including 6-2 overall, 8-2 against losing teams, 19-8 in interleague play and 7-2 in interleague roadies. Plus, with Pettitte starting, the under is on rolls of 43-17-1 overall, 28-10 on the road, 10-1 against the N.L. East and 16-5-1 in interleague contests. For Atlanta, the under is on stretches of 5-2-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 6-1 with Lowe starting and 4-0 behind Lowe at Turner.
Finally, last night’s game easily topped the posted total, ending a 5-0 “under” run in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW YORK and UNDER
DUNKEL
Cincinnati at Toronto
The Blue Jays go for the sweep against a Cincinnati team that is 0-6 in its last 6 games as a road underdog. Toronto is the pick (-110) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Jays favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-110).
Game 901-902: St. Louis at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 15.763; NY Mets (Santana) 14.577
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 6
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-120); Under
Game 903-904: Chicago Cubs at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Lilly) 16.005; Detroit (Galarraga) 14.765
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-130); Over
Game 905-906: LA Dodgers at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 16.895; White Sox (Richard) 15.645
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-160); Over
Game 907-908: Kansas City at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Bannister) 14.767; Houston (Moehler) 13.589
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+110); Under
Game 909-910: Minnesota at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Baker) 14.341; Milwaukee (Burns) 15.520
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+110); Under
Game 911-912: San Diego at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Leblanc) 15.531; Seattle (Washburn) 15.019
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Seattle (-185); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+175); Over
Game 913-914: Cincinnati at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 14.240; Toronto (Cecil) 15.215
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-110); Over
Game 915-916: Cleveland at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Lee) 15.286; Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) 14.301
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-155); Over
Game 917-918: Boston at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Smoltz) 15.525; Washington (Zimmermann) 15.185
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-130); Over
Game 919-920: Philadelphia at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Bastardo) 15.883; Tampa Bay (Sonnanstine) 15.214
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-130); 10
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+120); Under
Game 921-922: NY Yankees at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pettitte) 14.463; Atlanta (Lowe) 15.772
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-110); Under
Game 923-924: Baltimore at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hill) 16.276; Florida (West) 14.924
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+120); Under
Game 925-926: Texas at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Feldman) 15.478; Arizona (Garland) 13.812
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+105); Under
WNBA
Phoenix at Washington
The Mercury look to bounce back from their defeat at San Antonio on Tuesday and build on their 5-2 ATS record in their last 7 games following an ATS loss. Phoenix is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mystics favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+3 1/2).
Game 601-602: Phoenix at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 111.313; Washington 111.870
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1; 170 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 3 1/2; 176
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+3 1/2); Under
Matt Fargo
Texas Rangers vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Arizona D-Backs
Texas is slipping in the American League West. After having a four-game lead just 10 games ago, the lead has been cut to zero as the Angels have caught Texas in the division. The Rangers did pick up a much needed win last night and it was unexpected as they were able to beat Dan Haren thanks to an even better effort from Vicente Padilla. Arizona continues to struggle on offense as it has been hit or miss with this team. The Diamondbacks could get some production tonight from the bats as they square off against Scott Feldman. Feldman has a terrific run of six straight quality starts but his last three have produced none and things could be going from bad to worse as team are finally starting to figure him out. He is 4-1 on the road but his ERA is 4.26 which is nothing great and only half of his road outings have been quality performances. He squares off against Jon Garland who is turning the corner in the other direction. Despite Arizona losing his last six starts, three of his last four outings have been quality starts including his last two where has allowed a combined three runs in 14 innings of work. Obviously the run support has been lacking but that has not been the case at home where the Diamondbacks have averaged 6.0 rpg in his seven home starts. His 7.82 home ERA looks atrocious but four of those seven starts have been good ones and that inflated number is attributed to three games and even though it is three too many, he is in a better state right now to follow up his last start at Chase Field which was in fact a quality performance. Arizona falls into a solid underdog situation as well. Play against road favorites of less than -150 with a starting pitcher who averages three or fewer strikeouts per outing going up against a National League opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.55 to 1.65 on the season. This situation is 35-14 (71.4 percent) since 1997. 3* Arizona Diamondbacks
Cajun Sports
Cincinnati Reds vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
The Cincinnati Reds have found the going tough at the Rogers Centre versus the host Toronto Blue Jays losing both of the first two games in this three-game set. They face a Blue Jays squad that is 64-36 W/L (+18.2) when playing at home with a line range of -150 or less the last three seasons. Toronto is 40-17 W/L their last fifty-seven games as a home favorite and 17-8 W/L their last twenty-five home games facing a right-handed starter. The Reds are 8-24 W/L their last thirty-two interleague road games versus teams with a winning record and 6-18 W/L their last twenty-four interleague road games facing a left-handed starter. All bad signs for a Reds team that needs a win to halt a sweep in this series on Thursday night. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Blue Jays win over the Reds by 1.3 runs and our Math Model also signals a sweep by the Jays on Thursday night at the Rogers Centre. Lay the short price with the host as the Jays take all three games in their interleague matchup with the Reds.
Graded Selection: 2* Toronto Blue Jays 6 Cincinnati Reds 4
Craig Trapp
New York Yankees vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: New York Yankees
Betting Trends
-Yankees are 5-1 in Pettittes last 6 interleague starts.
-Yankees are 4-0 in Pettittes last 4 starts vs. Braves.
-Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.
-Braves are 1-4 in Lowes last 5 starts.
The rubber match of this interleague series as both teams won a game in the first two. Today the NYY try to keep there bats alive after really struggling in there last 9 games. The Yanks also turn to veteran Petite who has been great on the road recently. He has gone 18 innings in his last 4 road starts only allowing 4 runs. ATL turns the ball over to Lowe hoping he will avoid some recent troubles. In his last three starts he has pitched 15 innings allowing 13 runs going 0-3!! Lets ride the hot bats and better pitching in an easy winner NYY!! SCORE: NYY 6 - ATL 2
Frank Jordan
Cleveland Indians vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh had the bats out last night scoring 10 runs mainly in the 4th inning with 6 runs winning 6-3 despite three errors. In the rubber match of the series of bordering state teams a pair of 6 loss pitcher going at it as 4-6 Cliff Lee with the era under 3 against Ross Ohlendorf who is at .500 at 6-6, but the era is a little high just under 5. Look for Ohlendorf to raise his game going up against the raining Cy Young award winner and lead Pittsburgh to the 6-5 win. Play Pittsburgh
Alex Smart
Toronto Blue Jays -120
The Toronto Blue Jays offense has been very inconsistent this season, with long stretches of explosiveness and extended droughts of ineptness. In their last three games the Northern birds, they have been in full flight, popping 24 runs on the board. Going back a little further the Jays have scored 7 more runs or more 6 times in the L/8 games with their 4-5 hitters batting a combined .388 with five homers in those contests. They will go against one of MLB most consistent pitchers this season , Johnny Cueto ( 6-4,2.55 ERA) .Despite of his prowess, the natvie of the Dominican Republic has proven he is hittable of late, as was the case in his last effort vs the White Sox , as is evident by lasting just 4 2/3 innings allowing runs and 3 taters on 11 hits. The righty I'm betting will once again be in for tough outing against a Blue Jays team that is 41-17 in their L/58 games as home favorite. Hey I know the Blue Jays pitcher Brett Cecil (2-1, 4.26 ERA), has not looked overpowering and rather average , but it must be noted that the Reds manager Baker has seen his teams go just 3-18 L/21 vs AL teams with a starting pitcher with a ERA of 4.00 to 4.70, losing SU by an average of 2.8 RPG Final notes & Key Trends: Reds have lost 6 straight road games. Jays are 5-1 in the L/6 meetings in this series.Play on the Jays
Red Dog Sports
Chicago Cubs at Detroit Tigers
Play the Chicago Cubs
Ted Lilly starts for the Cubs and the team is 10-4 when he starts. His ERA is just 2.21 in his last 3 starts and the team is 3-0. Galarraga is on the mound for the Tigers and his ERA is a very high 7.11 in his last 3 appearances. Play the Cubs as small road favorites on Thursday.
Brad Diamond Sports
Play on: Kansas City (Bannister) over Houston
Although Moehler pitched decently in his last outing, the Astros right hander gave up three home runs. Opposing hurler Bannister of KC has been on fire the last three times on the diamond with a super 1.29 ERA. Over the last two mound encounters Bannister has gone into the eight inning, quality starts, you bet! KC has won four of five in this series, while going 8-2 versus righties in Inter-League games.
Stephen Nover
Chicago Cubs @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: Chicago Cubs
The Detroit Tigers have won six in a row and own one of the better home marks at 22-11.
But there's a reason why they are a home 'dog today. That reason is a pitching matchup of Ted Lilly against Armando Galarraga. It's enough to make me lay a small price on the Cubs.
Lilly is underrated. He has been one of the most consistent pitchers in the National League this season. He's 5-2 with a 2.78 ERA in his last 10 starts. He has a 23-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio during his past 23 1/3 innings.
Lilly is well suited to pitch in spacious Comerica Park, too, being a fly ball pitcher.
As for Galarraga, he shouldn't even be in the majors anymore. He is 0-7 with a 7.48 ERA in his last 10 starts. Opponents are batting .343 against him during this span.
The Cubs are one-for-23 with runners in scoring position during the first two games of this series. A correction is due in short order. Expect it to happen in this matchup.
The Tigers' bullpen worked four innings on Wednesday night. Closer Fernando Rodney had a rocky ninth inning throwing 24 pitches before getting out of a jam.
MTi Sports
Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays are 6-0 THIS season as a favorite when they lost the last two games their starter started and 5-0 THIS season as a favorite after a win in which they drew 5+ walks and it is not the first game of a series. The Reds are 0-7 in the last game of the series. Consider laying this short price.
Bob Harvey
Chicago Cubs vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers
The Tigers are red hot at home. They’ve won six straight in the friendly confines and look to make it seven in a row when they go for a three game sweep of the Cubs. A victory today would also give Detroit a perfect 6-0 homestand. However the Tigers will need a solid outing from Armando Gallaraga to have a shot at perfection.
Gallaraga, who was nothing short of brilliant last season, has been nothing short of awful this season. He’s 3-7 with a 5.62 ERA and hasn't won since April 26. Gallaraga is also 0-7 his last 10 starts.
Needless to say Chicago’s got a huge pitching advantage with Ted Lilly on the hill. The veteran lefty has made four starts this month and has been brilliant in each one of them posting a 1.98 ERA. On the season Lilly has made 11 quality starts, meaning he’s gone at least six innings in each of those outings. Over his last ten starts he’s 5-2 with a 2.78 ERA.
However there are some other numbers that favor a play on Detroit. Like the Cubs six-game losing streak to the Tigers daring back to 2001. Or how about the fact that the Cubs offense has gone south. Chicago has scored seven total runs while losing the first three of its 10-game stretch away from Wrigley Field. They’ve stranded 31 runners during its slide and if your not hitting with runners in scoring posistion, bad streaks tend to continue
To loosely paraphrase Miss South Carolina, where as the Tigers can really hit the ball (8th in homeruns and 9th in scoring) the Cubs, you know, don’t whereas hit the ball very well. Chicago is 22nd in runs scored, 24th in OPS and 26th in batting average.
Is Ted Lilly the better pitcher today? Absolutely he’s head and shoulders above Gallaraga. However Lilly can’t do much about the Cubs anemic offense and that’s why I’m playing the Tigers in this one.
Bobby Maxwell
N.Y. Yankees at ATLANTA -105
Tonight we'll make it three in a row as we play the Braves at home against the Yankees.
A classic pitching matchup about eight years ago taking place tonight in Atlanta as the Yankees send lefty Andy Pettite (7-3, 4.26 ERA) to the mound at Turner Field to face the Braves' Derek Lowe (7-5, 4.09).
We're going to play the home team as they Yankees are just 5-9 in their last 14 overall, 2-6 on the road and 1-4 against right-handed starters.
Lowe is 3-1 in his starts in Atlanta this season with a 3.27 ERA and the Braves are 4-1 in his last five starts against winning teams. Saturday he gave up three runs on seven hits in 6.1 innings at Boston in a 3-0 loss. He has plenty of experience against the Yankees, going 8-10 in 39 career appearances against the Bronx Bombers.
The Braves are on positive streaks of 5-3 at home, 13-7 against winning teams and in interleague games, they are on runs of 6-1 at home, and 8-4 against winning squads.
Look for Atlanta to get great pitching from Lowe and get enough runs across the plate to make this an easy winner. It'll be in the 5-2 range.
4♦ ATLANTA
Dominic Fazzini
N.Y. Yankees +105 at ATLANTA
I handed you a FREE WIN for the third time in four days with the Blue Jays downing the Reds on Wednesday. We'll it keep it rolling today with another interleague matchup.
As a pitcher for the Red Sox from 1997 through 2004, Derek Lowe is no stranger to facing the Yankees.
The sinkerballer dominated the last time he faced New York, allowing one hit in six innings on two days’ rest in Game 7 of the 2004 American League Championship Series. In 39 regular-season appearances vs. the Yankees, however, Lowe’s ERA was 6.07.
Now with the Braves, Lowe (7-5, 4.09 ERA) has been solid at Turner Field, going 3-1 with a 3.27 ERA in seven starts. But he has struggled on the mound lately, going 1-2 with a 7.47 ERA over his last three starts.
Lowe will be opposed by a familiar face in Andy Pettitte (7-3, 4.26), who has thrived when away from hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. Pettitte is 4-1 with a 2.35 ERA on the road, and he allowed one run on three hits with seven strikeouts in seven innings Friday in New York’s 5-1 win at Florida.
And Pettitte has had pretty good success against the Braves, going 5-1 with a 3.13 ERA against them in nine regular-season starts, and pitching 8 1/3 shutout innings in Game 5 of the 1996 World Series.
Atlanta hasn’t won a series since sweeping Toronto from May 22-24, and is 11-17 since then. I don’t see the Braves breaking through today. Go with the Yankees.
3♦ N.Y. YANKEES
Sports Gambling Hotline
NY Yankees -115 at ATLANTA
Another winner on the Tigers last night, as we are now on a 13-8 comp play run the last 3 weeks.
For Thursday night, take the Yankees to capture the rubber game of their three game series with the Braves.
New York claimed the 8-4 win last night, and starter Andy Pettitte has been much better on the road this year then he has been at home.
At home, the southpaw is just 3-2 with an ERA near 6. On the road, Pettitte has gone 4-1 with a slim 2.35 ERA, and he is fresh off a road win over Florida last Friday night. The guy likes to pitch in the heat, and he will get some heat tonight in HOT-lanta.
Derek Lowe counters off back-to-back losses, allowing 10 runs in just 8 innings of work.
The New York bats showed some life last night, and we like them to show some more life tonight in the win.
Play on the Yankees.
1♦ NY YANKEES